hippo

18 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

That's actually a good point. Thing is it's becoming increasingly obvious (even if it wasn't before-which it was) that Brexit is a stupendous piece of self destruction. Maybe the country would stand for a softening view on it. 

It wont be obvious to your average white van driving brexiteer  !

7 minutes ago, sidcow said:

They can't, I don't remember any questions on the ballot paper about if we should or shouldn't have a trading deal with The EU. 

They will.

"Labour will get into bed with the EU and squander our hard won independence "

The argument is totally flawed - but I would be staggered if they don't use something similar.

2 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

Because we're not in it? We've apparently got Brexit done.

Yes but we still have a trading deal with the EU - which they can moan about - even though they agreed it 

Be good to see him back to full fitness. Don#t think he was properly fit for large parts of last season. 

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

Yeah, but will he fall into the same zone as Keir Starmer. “I will pretty leave things as they are today” to avoid upsetting anybody?

Or does he have a backbone and confirm he’d look at getting the UK into some mutually beneficial trading pact with Europe?

Amazing that for many thats totally off the agenda - feckin grim ! 

22 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

It will be interesting to see how they approach the next election. The right can't whip up fury against BRUSSELS BUREAUCRATS any more. Who are they going to blame for the utter crap mountain that is the UK at the moment?

I disagree they can \ will  (and indeed have) blamed the EU for all manner of ills 

Its vote winner - why on earth would they stop ? 

Interesting that labour will push for a no confidence vote. I've  wondered why - because Johnson would surely win such a vote  - but then if he wins such a vote with almost 100% support - wouldn't someone be tempted to launch a keep Boris campaign ? 

"your getting rid of a bloke with a stonking election victory and 2 confidence votes victories to his name - what are we doing ?" 

1 minute ago, Dodgyknees said:

You know what it’ll be?

”it’s a conspiracy against Johnson”

absolutely back that cos that’s what they will say now. 

GB news have been saying for 24 hours 

23 minutes ago, Chicken Field said:

I'm guessing the opportunity to play for Gerrard is less attractive, than finally breaking through at your local club, which he supports, are competing for titles and are playing in the champions league..

Loftus-Cheek got a surprising amount of appearances last season and Gallagher is a lot better than him, I'd be shocked if Chelsea are even remotely interested in selling him right now. 

WTF seriously ???????? 

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

And that's why Internet and robocalling responses seemingly produce more accurate results too

It's also why the TV companies manage to find such an unrepresentative sample when they do their Vox Pops (in Stoke)

Yes.

I think it was 1992 - when a polling company tracked a group of undecided people over the course of an election campaign - but then of course these people became more engaged in politics over the next 3 weeks and as such weren't typical voters.  Although they did correctly predict the result.   

"The police have completed their investigation and have agreed, saying that there is no case to answer."

Daily Mail are running with story saying the above really means he is guilty - and the head of Durham police is a communist.

2 minutes ago, StanBalaban said:

There's very little shy about Boris supporters. Will be interesting to see how many of them will vote for someone that's not Boris.

I don't think though they will look for Boris 2 - Truss/Patel/Baker.

Very early days but Ben Wallace/Tom Tugenhad  seem what they are looking for right now. That might change over the next couple of weeks - bear in mind the tory membership is 80% Brexit 

22 minutes ago, bickster said:

The shy Tory is a bit of a myth when it comes to opinion polls. It was supposed to be the reason that the polls were out in 1992 and 2015 but an independent enquiry by the British Polling COuncil found this to be untrue, it was the polling methods themselves that were wrong because they used unrepresentative samples

Yes - it all gets quite interesting  (nerdy moment) - Another they found was (this was in 1990's) - that you were less likely to meet a Tory in the street - its the more working class people that are out and about.

28 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Yup, I can well believe it. But demographics change, and parties do too. I imagine that a Green supporter might well vote for a Cameron Tory party. I think it's less likely that they'd vote for this version.

I think the assumption was they were a bit embarrassed to say they voted Tory. Or the feared the next question was "Why the feck are you voting for those selfish bstrds"  

24 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I don't think it is either. They were 12 points behind in 2012 and won the next election comfortably. 

However they had 10% of UKIP to their right that they could squeeze, and the threat of a Labour / SNP coalition on the other side which is where that deficit was recovered. I don't see who that 6-7% who need to switch back are, and what happens in the next two years or so that brings them back onside. 

Using that "Tory squeezing UKIP votes in a general election" argument, I'd even argue that there is a sizeable Green vote which Labour will eat into a bit in a general election making the deficit arguably worse. 

I remember once I was working with someone who had previously worked for a polling company. He told me that one of the adjustments they made / factored in - was that a high % of people who told them they would vote for the greens in fact would vote Tory.  They pretty much proved this after on election. 

Connor Gallagher would be a great signing and would obviously relish the chance to come and play for Stevie G - Get it done villa.

23 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Obviously they'll get a bounce when the new crook takes charge, but even so...

 

I don't actually think an 11 point deficit is terminal for the Tories in mid term.

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

You vote for a party, not a prime minister.

In strictness you vote for your local MP. - who could be independent of any party.

We get our chance in 2024. - if not before.

5 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

Johnson abandoned a sinking ship and it is difficult to see the remaining rabble changing much.

Johnson's courting of Labour voters and all that 'red wall' bollocks has left the party in a state of being neither one thing or another.

There doesn't seem much evidence that the Tories are a party of the right, as they have abandoned every policy associated with old Tory values.

They have ceased to be the party of law and order, and crimes against property have either been given a threshold to avoid prosecution (shop-lifting) or are not investigated (burglary).

Traditional freedoms have been eroded and control of education is to be centralised.

They make speeches about controlling immigration and then do nothing about it, except invent barmy schemes which actually do the opposite to what they claim they will.

They are willing to waste billions on HS2, when the money would be better spent on building houses.

After years of preaching about the 'money tree' they have embarked on an experiment in MMT, and chopped the whole forest down.

They virtually endorse some forms of civil action and clamp down on others.

They have an identity crisis and are still trying to emulate New Labour, which might have been successful at the poles, but was a disaster for the country.

Sadly, Johnson was not the only liar on the Tory benches and most of them are still part of the government.

 

 

 

Yeah clearing the deficit and paying back furlough have long ceased to be problems.

Now if the money was there for furlough without ever being repaid - stop dickin about with  NHS funding - its political choice to under fund it - as they don't like non profit things thriving.

9 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I wonder what appetite there is to go for a much softer Brexit negotiation now.  Obviously the rabid Brexiteers will never want anything other than as hard as possible....they like it as hard as possible from public school training.

But maybe some of the more moderate ones have woken up to the reality and would support something much softer.  At the end of the day they can still say we are out, they got Brexit done which will appease most of the Brexit voters.  I am sure they can throw out some clever slogans about a new Norway type arrangement to make it sound like we're having our cake and eating it still.

I really don't think it's a massive vote loser - at the end of the day most Brexit voters had no idea what they were actually voting for anyway so probably don't care as long as we're not actually physically in the EU.

Will hard Brexit die with Boris I guess is the question.  I for one dearly hope so.

They will have to. Of course it will be dressed up as a good deal for the UK - and won't ever be called a soft brexit 

Pri Patel considering standing - Gulp !  

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

What about Ben Wallace, surely he ticks most of the boxes need to win? 

Yeah - he fits the bill right now.

The tory leadership seems to favour those with the least enemies - a bizarre selection process 

Does seem a willingness by the Tories - that the Johnson years were bad ones - and any new leader will represent a fresh start (probably not a radical shift in policy though)

I think that puts Truss, Baker   and Patel (not that she will stand)  at a disadvantage - maybe even Zahawi/Sunnak who both come with a bit of baggage - normally that wouldn't disadvantage them - but that last the Tories want come October is some reveal about past dodgy dealings.

When the last 2 going to membership for the final vote  - I think a non white skinned person would be at a disadvantage. 

So Tom Tugenhat definitely standing. Be interesting to see what the 85k Tory members make of him ! 

5 hours ago, Jareth said:

Labour are absolutely stuffed now. Ben Wallace for the sake of argument, looks likely to be the next PM - all those by election voters going yellow instead of blue will no longer be doing so. Labour can no longer depend on the Lib Dems to take enough seats off the tories, for them to get in. Also Starmer now needs to win a battle of ideas - not his strong suit. 

It was always a tall order for labour to overturn an 80 seat majority. Whatever the polls are showing 2 years before any election.

The fact he has got the labour in with a shout shows to me he's done a good jab.

Sadly, whipped up by the media - we are encouraged to have a noisy, bombastic, quirky character as our PM.

Personally I hope we go for more stable leaders (of either party)