jackbauer24

11 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

The booking was always going to happen within next few games. May as well get it out the way so he’s back with us for the final push in those 4 games we have him back for. 

If he'd kept his head for literally a minute longer, then he wouldn't have faced a ban this season as today was last chance for totting up. 

6 minutes ago, Mantis said:

That isn't how it works at all. Firstly, we didn't "throw in the towel" to begin with, we just rotated a bit, which literally all the top teams do and we need to do especially because of all the injuries we've had. Second, it's not like we "traded" a defeat to Man City for an expected win today therefore because we didn't win today it somehow "backfired" and wasn't worth doing. The point of rotation is to spread out the minutes among the squad more evenly so you can get the most out of your players.

You say "point against City" (as if we haven't lost there literally a dozen times in a row) and "maybe today is a win" but what's just as likely would've been a defeat to City, with key players even more tired, and then we lose today.

Also, 4th isn't a "pipe dream". Spurs have an advantage of course but we're literally 4th right now with 6 games to go.

Whilst I may admit my anger is clouding my judgement a little, we definitely threw in the towel against City before a ball was kicked.

The number of changes was not necessary and completely sabotaged any chance of a result. Yes, teams rotate but against weaker sides in the hope the players left are still good enough to get a result. I can't think of another team who has rested players against better opposition.

And the discussion about whether we could have won both, lost both is conjecture and backs up my view to some degree - you give yourself the best chance you can in every game as points can be gained and lost anywhere.

We can't now battle for a few weeks... Next up is Arsenal and they are currently better than City so we will need to wave white flag and put out the kids. We'll also have European games either side.

So we'll have to wait til Bournemouth before we hope to get some more points...

You may have guessed - I am seethig about the last week!!

Luiz was not good at all today. Passing was off, tackling was off, game management was off. For whatever reason, new not been on it at all in last month or so. The card at the end was moronic frankly. Some blame to Unai for not getting him off before this as he wasnt contributing much anyway.

And today is EXACTLY why I was fuming at our approach against City. You can not just throw in the towel against any team, otherwise you'll never pick up surprise points and only drop 'guaranteed' ones.

Did we look any fresher today?! Made zero difference. Now lost Luiz for a stupid unneeded tackle in, what, the 97th minute?! Smacks of arrogance against likes of Brentford to assume we just needed a break, but also suggests Unai doesn't gave faith in his near first XI to get anything either. Just a bad look all round. Point against City, be a little tired but on a high and maybe today is a win.

Feels like 2024 has just been Villa trying to think of new ways to mess up such an amazing season to that point. Flat games, poor performances, cup exits, losing badly to teams around us, McGinn red, Unai throwing a game, Ramsey injury, Luiz suspension. Just been a terrible 3 months really. Sheffield Utd only real highlight.

Fourth is a pipe dream frankly, Man Utd are doing a better job of giving us a chance of fifth than we are. Need them to lose again tomorrow.

I have recently completed a streak of 365. I have since actively decided to stop playing and broken it. I can now just play as and when again rather than feeling pressure every day to play and get it correct!! I did what I set out to do and I'm now free

1 hour ago, omariqy said:

So I have looked at a few different scenarios 

Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through

Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below

Scenario 1 

Man City - 0.500 points in total

Bayern - 0.571 points

Arsenal - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500 

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.660

England - 17.875

England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. 

 

Scenario 2

Bayern - 0.571

Man City - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.375

In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals

 

Scenario 3

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.125

Germany - 17.214

England - 17.5

In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it

 

Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario 

Man City - 0.500

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.214

England - 18.25

In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. 

Amazing work!

So, to summarise (I think!) using your entirely sensible Draw/Win legs average;

If Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool or West Ham go through, add 0.5 to England's score

If they go out, add 0.125

If Bayern Munich, Leverkusen or Dortmund go through, add 0.571

If they go out, add 0.143

Villa... I'm unsure why we're different but 0.375 for a win... For a loss?

This is added on to;

England 16.250 and Germany 16.357.

So my feeling is Real Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Villa through... 

England 16.250 + 0.125 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.125 + 0.375 = 17.875

Germany 16.357 + 0.143 + 0.571 + 0.571 = 17.642

Gonna be tight... When did football start involving so much maths?!

Moving away from the race for fourth for a moment, does anyone KNOW how important various results in Europe are this week and next?

Man City vs Real Madrid

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich

Liverpool vs Atlanta

West Ham vs Bayer Leverkusen

Villa vs Lille

Obviously the key ties are the games vs German teams... But how vital are they exactly? Can we afford one team to lose, both? Can they all win and yet still be messed up by shocks for Liverpool and, less so given the opposition, Man City?

And who, really are favourites? Man City's draw feels very tricky. Are West Ham under dogs? Arsenal got a chance vs Bayern?

All feels very knife edge for CL 5th spot, is there anywhere where predictions will give you an outcome? For example, I can see Arsenal, Liverpool and us progressing, but Man City and West Ham going out... Where would that leave it?

I assume this also means we will be 'throwing' the Arsenal and Liverpool games too as we have winnable fixtures and European games around them...

Sorry, whilst I understand the rationale, I will NEVER accept giving up before a ball is kicked. Emery's lineup may have been impacted by injuries and suspensions but it doesn't explain all the decisions on TOP of that.

No Pau, Bailey, Tielemans when available. Bringing on Chambers and kids to replace seniors players. We may as well have just played all the kids such was the approach and set up to that game.

I'm genuinely fuming that we are all so ready to accept this approach. Not taking risks with likes of Watkins and Ramsey might be fine, but to simply rest players in the Premier League (unless against WORSE) opposition is, frankly, pathetic.

I get it, I really do. But I do not like it and will never like it. They rested players against us to some degree because they have bigger games coming up and put out a team they still (correctly!) thought could win. We simply gave up. Based on how that went, a draw wouldn't have been out the realms of possibility if we'd approached it with integrity.

I imagine Martinez's illness got a lot worse when he saw the team sheet.

The team did well enough in the main, but they could play that match 100 times and never get a point such was the difference in quality. We were set up to fail and obviously lost.

I never want to see a Villa side throw a game and that's what thar effectively was. You rest players against worst teams and perhaps mess it up, but you don't surrender like that.

So for all the good he has done, that has to be a VERY POOR for Emery and I never want to see that approach again.

Whilst no accountant, it would seem FFP is a less than subtle way to protect the big hitters and stop investment in different clubs.

I've always thought owners should just have to somehow guarantee the spending they are commiting to over and above what the club earn. So if Owner X wants to buy £100m squad, he can do so as long as he secures a guarantor to cover that bill and wages of all contracts. If Owner X ups and leaves, he pays up what's due or his guarantor (presumably a bank/insurance firm) does. The club lose the player at the end of the contract but are not forced to wind up/ firesales if owners leave. Surely finance companies would be these guarantors for a fee. Would mean new money in the sport and the chance for investment at sole risk to the owner and not the club.

OR, this is complete crap because I know nothing about finance!

So Gary Rowett will be the SIXTH person to take charge of the team this season. That surely has to be some kind of record?!

John Eustace, Wayne Rooney, Steve Spooner, Tony Mowbray and Mark Venus.

Be hilarious if they got relegated, but can't see it quite happening unfortunately.

We could do with a poll to see how confident people really are of us getting 4th or 5th and whether that'll equal Champions League football! Is it just bravado/ excitement/ hope or do you truly believe?

I will admit that I am definitely a naturally negative person. Practically 40 years of being a Villa fan hasn't exactly helped my outlook. I genuinely just can't see us doing it. Is that based on reality or trauma?!

4th is looking a step too far. Injuries, suspensions and our harder run in than our rivals makes me feel this is beyond us. If we don't get 6 points from our next two home games, it's fairly safe to say we'll be fifth before Spurs hit their tricky triple header. We're not exactly known for taking our chances when opportunities arise.

So holding on to 5th... 9 points and GD ahead of United. But they have a game in hand, a ridiculously easy run in and the fear of being Man Utd, despite what recent years have shown. Teams will always fear Utd more than they worry about us. Maybe we can stay ahead of them, but wouldn't be placing huge money on it given our current team and form.

So even believing we finish 5th, will PL get 5th spot? Man City easily could be knocked out by Real Madrid, Arsenal will struggle with Bayern Munich and West Ham will lose to Leverkusen. That's not doom mongering, think most would agree. Liverpool should walk Europa and I'd hope we might make Final... although we've got hardest route possible basically.

I just can't see it all going for us. We are huffing and puffing, English teams have stuttered in Europe and... We're Villa.

I'm very very concerned by our midfield for this game. No Kamara, Ramsey or McGinn is proper bare bones. Don't think Rodgers or Iroegbunam are ready and we can't afford to shift Luiz/Tielemans too much.

For these games I'd be very tempted to play Pau as a defensive midfielder. He would add to the midfield and Konsa and Lenglet can carry on with what they did during Pau's injury layoff. None of it is ideal though.

              Martinez

Cash Konsa Lenglet Digne

                  Pau

Bailey Tielemans Luiz Diaby

         Watkins (I hope!)

No Watkins, then we're in MASSIVE trouble.

1 minute ago, Don_Simon said:

Sweet jesus no.

The best centre back we've had in decades and we're discussing moving him to a different position.

 

Fair enough!!

But don't mean permanently, just for three games with no McGinn. Think we can cope with him out of position better than we can cope with Chambers in midfield for example!

Thinking out loud rather than having a strong conviction in this thought... Could he play deep midfield while no McGinn/Kamara? Play Konsa and Lenglet in Central Defence, Cash and Moreno (or Digne) and then Pau, Tielemans and Luiz with width supplied by Bailey and Diaby to (hopefully) Watkins.

Just feel his calm composure, passing and ability to slot in as a back five when needed, could really work. Or is it to defensive? Don't think Ramsey (injuries) Rogers or Iroegbunam (readiness) are going to help us in McGinn's absence.

It's about perception and direction.

I kind of get where @cvbyrne is coming from, 2024 does feel we've jumped from one disastrous result to long term injury to significant suspension and poor luck outside Villa. And that depressing trajectory is hard to combat, regardless of where you feel you could and should be.

Get a draw when losing 1-0 til the 92nd minute and you're elated, get a draw when you're winning in that situation and you're distraught. Still a draw. We end 6th having been much higher than that most the season and a lot will be upset, but had we repeated last season and been racing up the table and steal sixth and we're delighted.

But perhaps, more simply, we should just do what we can and see what happens as regards league position and coefficients. Just take care of ourselves and what we can control. Everything else is just noise in either way, positive or negative.

I'm far more concerned about OUR form, injuries and suspensions than who Man Utd have to play or whether it'd be better if two German teams were playing each other in Europe.

Turn around our 2024 first, worry about everything else if it becomes relevant!

Just now, AshVilla said:

I think we should be more concerned with the Watkins injury than the coefficient at the minute.

True... And that's because I'm more concerned about holding fifth as to whether it's a CL place at the end of the season! Keeping 5th is the priority, the other part is largely out of our hands.

Let's not pretend that Ajax are the Ajax of old or that we played well, despite the great result. West Ham will be several levels harder than tonight.

Think we can be pretty confident in saying there are more goals in this game yet... Just not sure for who. Bailey, Diaby, Duran and Rodgers will have chances, but they all push forward and it's leaving us vunerable to a counter if Ajax can just play the right ball.

Also wouldn't be surprised to see a Red in this game either, it's not as dirty as the ref seems to be viewing it as!

We're playing comfortably within ourselves but wouldn't be confident of us having the energy for a second gear if Ajax nick one.

1 hour ago, duke313 said:

Ideal scenario: West Ham win 1-0, get points from the win, 30 mins extra time ( tired legs for Sunday), then They win on pens getting qualified bonus.

And based on how the predictions (in jest admittedly) of a 4-0 win for Villa on Sunday went, it's far more likely this is what happens to Villa on Thursday... and we lose on penalties!

1 hour ago, YLN said:

You can't win a tie in the first leg but you can lose it. So 0-0 is fine

Odd phrase... If we can lose it, then the other team have won the tie in the first leg! 

I have very little issue with the result. I have massive issues with the approach, the performance and the ref!

Struggled to give anyone MOTM, Martinez gets it for a save but his distribution was horrific. They were all terrible. We weren't up for this game at all and are fortunate to still be level. We offered nothing. So frustrating when this is supposed to be the glamour games we crave and we played it like a friendly vs a lower league team. Ref was beying incompetent for both sides.

Let's just walk away and never talk of this again.

In an amazing season, the last remaining question is; can we handle pressure? So far, we haven't really. Spurs is a pressure game between two evenly matched teams.

We have beaten some amazing teams as the underdogs, we have bullied some midtable teams and we have held on against some pluckier relegation candidates.

But the bigger games we've gone in to as 'equals', we've generally struggled in or, frankly, blown it. Man Utd home and away. Newcastle home and away. Chelsea and Everton in the cups. Even just the opportunities to go briefly top of the table. Or the pressure of the first European game proper.

We've lost these games but then, crucially, bounced back and our rivals haven't taken advantage or closed the gap.

I am yet to see us win a pressure game this season and suspect we may be in for some more disappointment Sunday and, again, it will be how we react in the following games and if Spurs/Utd push on.

Some seem to suggest we should gamble with weaker teams in Conference to put focus more on chasing Chanpions League qualification in league. However, surely doing our best to win Conference is just as key to that objective; winning the competition gives us more chance of securing CL as it adds to England's coefficient scores for that fifth place.

Although I highly doubt it's this simple/straightforward - surely there's a mathematical scenario where by winning the competition puts us in CL and losing in the final leaves us 5th and England missing out on the extra CL spot!