RichW

12 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

My take on FFP and Villa is this - bearing in mind I have no fu****g idea how it works. 

Firstly, I don’t think we’re in *great* danger of failing it. There just isn’t any way we sign Rogers if we’re borderline and fearing punishment. The counter argument to this of course is, ‘Rogers is Ramsey’s replacement when we need to sell in the Summer’ - I don’t buy it.

Secondly, I don’t think the people running this club would gamble the long term future of it by making really, really bad decisions. I have to believe this - albeit the wages of some of our players is shocking. (The Gerrard era was catastrophic).

Thirdly, and I think this is the most important part of it all. All of our problems go away if we qualify for the CL because the revenue will plug a massive gap. We may not even choose to sign anyone and I still think we’ll have a very competitive squad next season. CL is everything this year. If we fail to qualify, looking at the numbers being thrown around, we may need to sell somebody like Luiz or Ramsey just to balance the books. 

But what do I know. This season is massive. 

Christ could you imagine this place if Villa didn't sign anybody this summer? 

3 hours ago, WallisFrizz said:

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I’m a bit gutted that Spurs last 2 fixtures are against almost certainly already relegated Sheffield United and Burnley. 

If Spurs are 4th after that Liverpool game then I don't think we can have much complaints. Newcastle (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (H), Liverpool(A) is a horrific run of fixtures to have in a row and is where we need to make sure we are above them if we want to finish top 4. They will be playing title challengers three games on the bounce and also have Chelsea(A) to be rescheduled somewhere. 

12 hours ago, VillaChris said:

We can beat Wolves, just need the first goal in that one. Feels the time to beat West Ham away but that is tough to call given it's straight after both teams play second leg of Europa so will have to see who gets home tie in the second leg and which is more taxing.

It would make sense just to stick that game on the Monday night but it's international fortnight after so guess it isn't possible.

West Ham and Villa both topped their groups so I think that means the second leg for both teams will be at home. First leg being away is probably inconvenient for us since its Spurs at the weekend. Hopefully West Ham don't have a new manager by then.  

12 minutes ago, TreeVillan said:

I don't get why Bardell is so popular myself. He used to a decent podcast with a Villa fan who lives in Germany (who I thought was the better presenter personally) but think he was binned off 

Person your on about Tom Julian took up a job working for the Bundesliga and was contractually not allowed to work on the podcast no more hence the sudden departure. Bardell explained this when he was on the Claret and Blue podcast last summer explaining the change from The Villa View to 1874 podcast.

Noticed Tanswell has featured more often recently on there. Really enjoying his pieces this season and listening to him on the podcast. Be interesting if the The Athletic take Evans off Villa completely next season in which wouldn't really need to see him on the podcast then. 

44 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Are there any circumstances where a Mings, Pau, Konsa back three could work next season? ( Pau central - Ming's Left, Konsa Right )

Pau with a little license to get further forward, and Mings/Konsa closing the gap as a central two when he does so?

Saw a tweet yesterday that judging by the defence yesterday the original plan at the start of the season would have been Konsa Pau Mings Moreno. Was obviously concerned about two left footers before the game yesterday as you don’t really see it but I didn’t see anything hugely concerning with it so wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the first choice option for next season. Obviously will have to see how it fares over the next few games!

1 hour ago, wilko154 said:

Bailey has genuinely turned into one of the best wingers the club has ever had; he reminds me of Young in his peak now where everytime he gets the ball you expect him to create something. 

My concern is the early substitutions as it weakens us when he leaves the pitch, I don't know if he's carrying a knock or if it's a concern that we are now hugely reliant on him and need him fit. Emery could also be simply trying to play Diaby into form again, but I would rather be doing it 2 or 3 goals up.

Superb player and just hope this form continues.

Think I heard on a podcast, not sure if it’s 1874 or Claret and Blue that Emery is wary about playing Bailey and Diaby for 90 minutes because they rely on their pace and it’s more common for them to pick up muscle injuries. I guess they have all the data in front of them so they know how long to play them. 

Just got to accept we are going to have good weeks and bad weeks. We can all try and predict how fixtures go but the league will throw up surprise results. 
 

Expected a draw today just because of our poor record there and with the injuries this week but up until their goal which we could have avoided it was a comfortable afternoon and I didn’t feel like the system played left us exposed (compared to the Newcastle/Chelsea games). Knew Wolves wouldn’t be an easy game for Spurs but again saw Cunha ruled out with injury during the week and thought that would leave them short but fair play they go to Spurs and win, didn’t expect that especially when they made it 1-1. 
 

Just need to back up today’s win with a win against Forest. Be good to make this 2/3 wins in a row and possibly put together an unbeaten run although this will be difficult. With Spurs not playing next week, going 5 points clear of them going into our game with Luton and them playing a Palace under a new manager will put a bit of pressure on them to win. 
 

Man Utd will probably win today but at least our result has put pressure on them needing to win. 
 

One slight frustration from todays game was Palhinha getting booked so his suspended for Man Utd v Fulham next weekend, they’ve caused Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton issues away from this season but his gonna be a big miss for that game. 

3 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

I'd swap West Ham a win and a Wolves draw considering we can't manage to beat the stupid dog heads. Would feel amazing if we could get one over Wolves at a crucial time for once though.

I think De Zerbi can't help but play his way against us and that plays into our hands. They lack that vertical threat that has killed us against Newcastle/Liverpool and I back our players against them.

Really - it all boils down to winning games we should be winning and being competitive in the tough ones. It's hard not to feel pessimistic with form and injuries but a couple key returns at the right time and any one of our non Leon Bailey players catching fire will get us over the line and re-tool in the summer.

I thought the same before we played West Ham and put them to the sword. Cunha ruled out for the season by the looks of it so they are a striker down who has just hit form. They need Neto to stay injury free for the rest of the season.

Got to factor in once the league table hits 30-32 games - some of these mid-table sides will start to see the beach in the distance. Can't qualify for Europe and not going to go down. Of course this works for Spurs/Man Utd aswell. 

3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

21 points should be enough for 5th, assuming United don't win another 9 games. And if they win 8, they'd need to get another 3 draws. I don't see them getting 27 from their remaining fixtures anyway.

 

Looking at their fixtures and I feel like I am being generous with some of the wins. More then capable of dropping points against Luton, Fulham, Palace and losing to Brentford, Chelsea and Bournemouth. Plus they will have some mid-week games the further they go in the FA cup. 

Luton  - W
Fulham - W
Man City - L
Everton - W
Sheff Utd - W
Brentford  - D
Chelsea - D
Liverpool - L
Bournemouth - D
Newcastle  - D
Burnley - W
Palace - W
Arsenal - L
Brighton - L 

8 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Sorry to beat this to death, but I would say we need that 1.5 PPG to confirm 5th. And around 1.75 to be back in contention for 4th.

1.5 PPG = 19/20 points

1.75 PPG = 24/25 points

19/20 points = 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses / 6 wins, 1/2 draws, 6/7 losses / 7 wins, 7 losses

24/25 points = 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses / 7 wins, 3/4 draws, 3/4 losses

Simply put, almost regardless of the teams below us, if we win 6 more games, we've pretty much got 5th (assuming we draw 1 or 2 more games in that run)

If we win 7 more games, 4th is in play.

If we win 8 more, 4th is very likely.

Fixtures:

Fulham
Forest
Luton
Spurs
West Ham
Wolves
City
Brentford
Arsenal
Bournemouth
Chelsea
Brighton
Liverpool
Palace

If we can't win 6 of them, we don't deserve it. Simple as that.

If I had to make an attempt at predicting the rest of the season this is what I think it would be. Only one I've left is the Palace game because it will be dependant on what sort of result we/Palace need going into the game. 

Spurs/West Ham games back-to-back are key I feel, even if we could win one of those it would help us a lot (preferably the Spurs game). Forest, Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth and Chelsea are home games I feel we should be winning (I know Chelsea just beat us comfortably but I back Emery not to make the same mistake twice). 

Don't see us picking up anything away to Man City, Arsenal, Brighton (will probably want to owe us one for the 6-1) and Liverpool usually beat us at Villa Park. Anything in those games are a bonus to me. 

If football was predictable we'd all be rich so it will no doubt be a case we drop points unexpectedly but pick up points elsewhere. 21 points going into the Palace game could have us top 5 sealed before the last game right?  

Just looking at some of the teams that have been challenging for the Champions League in recent years 

Leicester 19/20 - 3 wins in the last 13 games. After 25 games 12 points clear of 5th. (COVID break wasn't helpful granted)
Leicester 20/21 -  4 wins in the last 13 games. After 25 games 6 points clear of 5th

Spurs 22/23 - 4 wins in the last 13 games. After 25 games 4 points clear of 5th (granted Newcastle had 2 games in hand)

Looking at probably our closest season under MON to qualify for the Champions League

08/09 - 2 wins in the last 13 games (Went 9 games without a win). After 25 games 7 points clear of 5th. 

I picked game week 25 to start from because that is what the league table is going to be up to after this weekend but as you can see those teams had poor end of the seasons which is why they missed out. If Villa were to have similar last 13 games this season then we don't deserve to finish in the Champions League places however I'm pretty confident Emery won't have us go on a run that bad. Kamara/Konsa injuries have been deflating but we are still in a healthy position. 
 

Think he will get some more minutes off the bench over the remaining games this season but I don't see Emery handing him any starts any time soon. It will be Mcginn back with Luiz (I'm not a fan of myself) but at least it means Tielemans/Diaby starting up top with Watkins which is something we didn't have last season when Kamara was out for long spells. 

Knew we had a bad record away to Fulham but didn't realise it's only 1 win in 16 there and that win was without fans. Don't necessarily think we will get battered by Fulham but I do think without Konsa and Kamara we are going to have some uncomfortable away games soon with Fulham being one of those. 

I think we will beat Forest but Fulham and Luton are tough to predict. Fulham will have a go (could be a repeat of Bournemouth and Brentford performances) games but expect Luton to sit back and we will have to break them down. 

12 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

It reminds me of 08/09 actually when we lost Laursen and ended the season with combinations of Cuellar and Knight/Davies. All three did o.k with a Laursen type alongside him but none of them could lead on their own. That's something I really commend Konsa for as he's developed into a leader in the absence of Mings but Carlos and Lenglet simply aren't those types and so we're just giving away needless goals by leaving players unmarked at set pieces and crosses.

Looked at that 08/09 season last week and if we had beaten Man Utd was going to say it would take a 08/09 collapse for us to finish below 5th I think but that's gone out of the window. Club won 2 of the last 13 games that season, didn't realise it was that bad of a collapse. Would like to think even without Konsa and Kamara we wouldn't be that bad! 

Last weekend looks like it was a brilliant one for Spurs and a good one for Man Utd. Not just the results but the likely Kamara news has deflated me whilst there's still rumours Konsa is going to be out for longer than thought. 

Being without Konsa and Kamara for a substantial amount of time is going to be difficult for us - the drop off is too much. We all saw how we played when Kamara was suspended for 3 games and that was with Konsa playing. Might have to lower expectations for the season. 

I get Matt Targett vibes with him. Decent player, good to have in the squad but doesn’t fit the managers system.

Targett didn’t suit Gerrard’s attacking full backs so the club got Digne and he got moved on. Cash doesn’t suit Emerys system and will no doubt get moved on late in the transfer window when he doesn’t start any of the first 4 games or so of next season. Don’t think Cash will want to leave but will probably find his game time limited after the club sign a CB that can play RB in the summer that can be back up to Konsa. 
 

Think we will beat Forest but not sure about the Fulham or Luton game. We have a poor record at Craven Cottage and I’m sure Fulham fans will fancy there chances against us. 
 

Fully expect Kamara to no doubt be ruled out for a few weeks or so and we saw the drop off when he was suspended. Not confident right now. 

Just hope this doesn’t go the same way our last 2 home games have gone where you think we will come out with a fast start and we concede quite quickly. Man Utd there for the taking 

I think if Buendia is fit before the end of the season I don’t see Emery giving him much, if any, minutes at all. Carlos was on the bench a lot at the end of last season and apart from some minutes against Wolves I don’t recall him getting on the pitch? Could just be Emery doesn’t like rushing players back from long term injuries especially if we are in a close race for the Champions League. 
 

With attacking options of Watkins, Bailey, Diaby, Ramsey, Rogers, Zaniolo aswell as Mcginn/Tielemans I think Emery will see that as enough to get to the end of the season personally. 

15 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

Repeated qualification for the CL won't be easy but the alternative isnt to just qualify once either. We will play the extra games whichever European tournament we are in so the extra game argument I hear from some, doesn't stack up.

But we need to win today so badly and at worst, just not lose. We need to finish 5th this season and can then see whats what next year.

Oh I agree. I’m glad it looks like we are going to have back-to-back European football instead of having to wait 13 years. If West Ham can have 3 seasons in a row of Europe don’t see why we can’t.
 

If we don’t qualify for the Champions League it won’t be because we had Europe. The trend this seasons seems to be we play better when we had a game mid-week funny enough.  The fact we are in this position with Europe would make our achievement more impressive than Newcastles last season. 
 

7 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

I agree about winning trophies being the point and I have said as much many times on here, but repeated qualification for the CL is infinitely more valuable and the ONLY way to bridge the financial gap long term. 

It's that simple.

As Newcastle finding out this season and what Carragher correctly highlighted in his article, repeated qualification for the Champions League is going to be difficult for clubs like us and Newcastle. 
 

Listened to a few podcasts and reading online prior to the Chelsea game there were people saying they would rather than win the FA Cup than the Europa Conference. Villa are just not in a position to pick and choose what trophy they can try and win. That argument didn’t last long though. 
 

Personally feel we can qualify for the Champions League and win the Europa Conference which would be excellent season. Will feel confident of top 5 if we win today. 

10 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Would rather just finish 4th so that was a bad goal for them to score in the context of our season.

Spurs still got plenty of tricky away matches to negotiate in the run in so we could do with them dropping points at home soon like we've started to do.

I’d rather finish 4th too but if 5th turns out to be Champions League then I don’t really mind. 
 

Spurs have all their key players coming back , no Europe distraction, look very good attacking wise and scoring late winners. I already feel like Wolves and Palace at home are going to probably be another 2 wins for them but I guess football doesn’t work like that so any points dropped there going to feel like a bonus for us.
 I feel just focusing on them will be annoying every week. Personally I am not sure their style of football is unsustainable but we just have to wait and see. 
 

Will definitely feel more comfortable if we beat  Man Utd and create a bigger gap. 

1 hour ago, VillaChris said:

It is much better for us if Spurs don't beat Brighton surely? Why are you more worried about a team still 11 points off us?

Good half from Brighton but Spurs were 1-0 down v Brentford in their last home match and quickly turned that around so with Son and Bissouma on the bench they have a lot of options to bring on.

Where did I say I was worried about a team 11 points behind us? I’m thinking more because it’s likely top 5 is going to be enough for Champions League. So I’m focusing on there being a big gap between us and 6th. 
 

I could just worry about Spurs but then I’d be getting really frustrated at them nicking a last minute winner. 

22 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Brighton can beat anyone on their day. 

Guess Brighton are capable of beating Spurs but also losing 4-0 to Luton. Hard to predict them but I wouldn’t be surprised if Spurs do what they did against Brentford and score 3 in 10 minutes. 

Potential to be a good weekend for us in terms of top 5. Can’t see past Spurs beating Brighton, Arsenal need to beat West Ham tomorrow especially after Man City’s result earlier and I think Villa beat Man Utd. 
 

Could have a comfortable gap over 6th after this weekend.