TomC

After spending the past few weeks talking about how much depth we have in midfield now, we might have trouble picking a midfield in this one. Sanson, Dougie, and Bailey definitely out, Buendia and Watkins probably out. Ouch.

The back 7 pick themselves under the circumstances, assuming we go 4-2-3-1:

McGinn- Nakamba

Targett - Mings - Konsa - Cash

Martinez

The only thing in the front 4 that seems sure is that with Bailey still in quarantine, Traore is a lock on the right. The rest depends on whether Buendia or Watkins play.

--If Buendia and Watkins both play, I think we have...

Ings

Watkins - Buendia - Traore

--If Watkins is out but Buendia is in, same as above but sub Young on the left.

--If Buendia is out but Watkins is in, I can see us switching to something more like a 4-4-2...

Watkins - Ings

Young - McGinn - Nakamba - Traore

--If Buendia and Watkins are both out, this is where we start looking a little thin. Probably...

Ings

Young - Ramsey - Traore

In some ways I'd like to see JPB instead of Ramsey, but I think that Deano will want more experience for the first game of the season and he rates Ramsey pretty highly.

I'm having a hard time believing that they plan 5-3-2/3-5-2 as a regular formation. (Of course, you can't rule out any formation as a one-off tactical response to the other team.) If you did this, the forwards and backs look like a given...

Watkins - Ings

? - ? - ?

Targett - Mings -Tuanzebe - Konsa - Cash

So who do you play as the three midfielders? We have Dougie, McGinn, Sanson, Buendia, Young, Traore, Bailey, Ramsey, potentially JPB and Chewey. We're overloaded.

If you consider who they've bought, I just don't think 5-3-2 is what they have in mind. The pieces fit better with a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, especially when you consider who covers for/rotates with whom.

24 minutes ago, sir_gary_cahill said:

Watkins for me isn’t a winger, he’s too much of a goal threat, he might’ve played there for previous clubs but he has a natural instinct in front of goal that would be negated if he played on the wing

He wouldn't be a traditional wing on the left delivering crosses; like Grealish, he's mostly right-footed. He'd cut in from the left.

2 hours ago, Junxs said:

I just hope this doesn't block Konsas development

I have developed an extreme hatred for the "Super League 6" and moves like this to develop their players makes me sick

I don't think it will block Konsa's development at all. I think that Deano is going to rotate more this year. He's there to give Konsa and Mings a rest every few matches. Maybe Cash too; not that we should trust a Wikipedia page, but it says that he also plays on the right.

Big clubs don't play the same starting XI every match anymore. They rotate, even when everyone is healthy. You have to think of all this summer's signings with that in mind. We couldn't rotate last year because of the drop-off in quality after our usual XI. Now we will be able to. And that means we shouldn't fade like we did last year. Remember, we were fading before Grealish got hurt.

2 hours ago, villalad21 said:

 

Do no play 4-4-2 just to get Ings and Watkins in the same team. 

Agreed, but I don't think that we need to play 4-4-2 to get them in the same team.

Watkins often played on the left at Brentford. Whether we play 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, he'll be out on the left of the front 3. Ings will be the 1 in the 4-2-3-1 or the middle of the front 3 in the 4-3-3.

Losing Grealish hurts, but we've gotten stronger at many other positions, we have a deeper squad to deal with both injuries and fatigue (which is why we faded last year), and everyone is a year older and more experienced (older in a good way). As a prediction, I say 8th, plus or minus 2. And to satisfy our need for progress, anything less than 8th will be a disappointment.

2 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

The report claims that Real Madrid also held conversations with Dean Smith's side over the playmaker, but Grealish's camp signalled that he was only interested in making the move to the Etihad Stadium.

This makes sense. Put yourself in Jack's shoes. You're one of the top 50 players in the world. You have a chance to be one of the top 10. How do you take the next step? Jack has said before that he idolizes de Bruyne. Given that de Bruyne is 5 years older than him, he not only gets to learn from his idol but gets to be his successor. Meanwhile, read the (credible) quote about how much he enjoyed talking football with Guardiola. At City, he gets the chance to learn from two of the best. I'm sure he thinks that those two will help him take the next step and be a top 10 player.

14 minutes ago, garreth said:

I know i love AEG allot of people on vt love critisizing players like him and luiz..

The two of them give there all in every game.

 

Ghaz is not a bad player. He can strike the ball. But he gives the ball away much too easily. In the modern game, players are expected to do more than one thing, and they have to be able to keep the ball. Ghaz is too one dimensional; there are very few pure strikers anymore who just knock the ball in. Nobody here is talking about starting him as a center-forward, anyway. He would have been a good traditional center-forward 15-20 years ago.

I like Dougie. I saw someone comment in another thread that his problem is that he's good at a lot of things but not great at anything. To me, that's what you want for one of the pivots in a 4-2-3-1. You have to be able to defend, to make a pass to start the attack, to go forward and join the attack.

46 minutes ago, abdomlahor said:

el ghazi isn't good enough to start every week.

Agreed. He's a Premier League player, but only barely. We didn't sign all these new forwards/attacking midfielders to start El Ghazi.

I think you can see some of their thinking here. If they go 4-2-3-1 most of the time...

We know who the starting 4 are. If Mings or Konsa gets hurt or needs a break, substitute Hause. If Cash gets hurt, move Konsa over and sub Hause. If Targett gets hurt, sub Young.

As for the 2, as I just posted elsewhere, I think Deano will rotate Sanson, Dougie, and McGinn.

You have many options for the 3 and the 1. How they accommodate both Watkins and Ings is going to be the interesting part. They will probably do some rotating to keep players fresh. I can see any of these given that Bailey can play left or right...

Watkins - Buendia - Bailey in the 3 with Ings up front. (Sub Trarore for Bailey and/or Wesley for Ings if they're hurt or need a rest.)

Young - Buendia - Bailey with Watkins or Ings up front. 

Bailey - Buendia - Traore with Watkins or Ings up front.

When you realize that none of these options take into account JPB, Chewey, or Ramsey, and that we might still sign another player or two, you realize that we have a pretty deep squad now. Maybe Chewey will sub on for Buendia late in games when the result is not in question?

Meanwhile, I see El Ghazi, Trezeguet, and maybe even Nakamba becoming marginal players.

15 hours ago, TheMelvillan said:

i suspect a fully fit Sanson will be ahead of him in the pecking order.

If Deano continues with a 4-2-3-1, I suspect that he will rotate Sanson, Dougie, and McGinn in the 2. Keep them fresh. And if someone isn't playing well, you have options.

5 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Just imagine if Messi had left Barca only a week sooner...

Maybe City would have signed Messi instead. Maybe not.

Would you rather have a 34 year old Messi or a 25 year old Grealish? Messi is still a better player right now, but he won't be in two years. He's getting old. They now have Grealish for what will probably be the peak 6 years of his career.

16 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

@Fairy In Boots has covered this in detail recently and to me it makes the most sense that Grealish, his family, and his agent have been angling for a move long ago regardless of club's ambition and how many times he's said he's a boyhood Villa fan. He's snaked out on us

It could very well be that Grealish made his calculation a year or two ago, but my question was essentially whether NSWE have ambition, and whether Grealish's decision reflects on that ambition. Regardless when he made his decision (if he has made it at all), Grealish could have decided that NSWE's timetable does not match his. That decision does not mean that NSWE necessarily lack ambition, only that it will take too long to happen for Grealish's taste.

Assuming that it happens (which is looking likely), I'm looking at the short term and the long term.

In the short term, am I disappointed? Of course. With the possible exception of Paul McGrath, Grealish is the best Villan since I started supporting Villa in 1992-93.

For the long term, what does this say about NSWE's ambition for the club? Only time will tell, because I see two possible motivations for NSWE in selling, and two possible motivations for Grealish in going. Looking at NSWE first, are they selling because...

1. They lack ambition, or because

2. They made the rational decision that £100m is a lot of money for a player who had injury problems last year, which can be used to deepen the squad with high quality players, which is a necessary step towards competing for Champions League spots and the title?

Similarly, did Grealish leave because...

1. He thinks NSWE lack ambition, or because

2. He made the rational evaluation that he's 25, the next 5 years are probably his peak years, he has injury problems and gets fouled a lot and could have even fewer peak years, and although NSWE are ambitious, Villa's timetable for becoming a truly big club is probably at least 5 years away, so he should chase hardware while he can?

I'm hoping that, in each case, the answer is #2 instead of #1. If so, I can live with it in the long term. And at the moment, I'm willing to give NSWE the benefit of the doubt. Edens has proven he wants to win and can win, as evidenced by the NBA success in Milwaukee. And NSWE are splashing out a lot of cash this summer, whether to convince Grealish to stay or to prepare for his departure (probably a little of both). But again, only time will tell.

2 hours ago, MrBlack said:

Fair to say Leicester over achieved when they won, but to not finish top 4 since is a sign that even though they did well in getting replacements, they aren't as good as they were.

Leicester's problem is not that their newer players aren't good enough. Their best XI are good enough for a Champions League spot. Their problem is squad depth. That's why they've faded at the end of the year two years in a row. All the "big" clubs have at least 16-18 players good enough to start. A deep squad keeps players fresh and gives you options in case of injuries. Leicester were lucky not to have any serious injuries in 2015-16.

It's a lesson we need to learn from as we build.

As for the Milwaukee Bucks winning the NBA championship: If Jack or anyone else had any questions about whether Wes Edens is willing to do what it takes to win, that should put an end to the doubts.

Is Southgate a bad manager? No. His tactics are conservative, it's not the most entertaining viewing, but he knows how to handle those tactics. In the last two major tournaments, he's made a semi-final and a final. Name another England manager who's done that since 1966.

Tonight was a good example: I disagree with whoever said that 5 at the back was a bad idea tonight. It worked very well in the first half. He knew Italy likes to attack down the left, so he put Trippier over there. Sure enough, Italy went nowhere for the first 35-40 minutes. Meanwhile, having 5 at the back allowed Shaw freedom to go forward on the other wing, which led to the goal.

That doesn't mean that he can't make mistakes, and he made two:

1. Italy changed their tactics in the second half. He didn't adjust. Sure, it seemed like it was working for a while, but when you give the other side 70%+ of the ball, you're tempting fate.

2. I agree with everyone who said that sticking a 19 year old with the decisive penalty was a mistake. What did pretty much everyone say after Mbappé missed the crucial penalty against Switzerland? Too young to handle that kind of pressure. He's 22 instead of 19, he's more talented than Saka (sorry), and he has far more big-time experience than Saka. He still couldn't handle it. Very few 19 year olds can calm their nerves like someone 28 or 30 can.

4 hours ago, villalad21 said:

I had no idea Messi has never won a Copa America

Strangely, neither Pele nor Maradona ever won a Copa America.

Easy choice for me: Argentina. Emi is actually playing. Dougie probably won't be. He played 62 minutes against Ecuador when Brazil had already clinched first place in their group and 1 minute against Peru in stoppage time. Unless someone gets hurt, we probably won't see him.

Plus I'd like to see Messi win some hardware with Argentina.

20 hours ago, Pissflaps said:

Wonder how much we sold him for

 

The Guardian is reporting the fee as £2.6m...

https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2021/jun/07/mens-transfer-window-summer-2021-all-deals-from-europes-top-five-leagues

So 7.2m in, 2.6 out, a 4.6m loss. If you aspire to be a big club, that's not much.

We were the most fouled team last year by far; it's not just Grealish. Traore runs at players and gets fouled. From what I see of his highlights, Buendia runs at players, so he will get fouled too. So it makes sense to have a good set piece taker.

But where do you fit WP in the side? Before this rumour broke, if we play 4-2-3-1, I figured first choice...

Watkins

Grealish - Buendia - Traore

McGinn - Luiz

Targett - Mings - Konsa - Cash

The DMs do the most running in this formation, and it showed last year. McGinn and Luiz were tired by February. McGinn got his second wind at the end of the season, but we need to rotate them. I assume that's why we bought Sanson. Ward-Prowse would give us a fourth DM. And three of them (WP, Luiz, Sanson) are right-footed. He would give us an overload there.

Maybe you use him in the Traore role. But then Traore becomes a substitute. I thought that Chukwuemeka would be our first-choice attacking sub on the right side; if Traore gets demoted, you would have two players behind WP as subs on the right. They're going to want to give Chewy time this year or he might want out; his contract expires in 2023, and if he wants out after this year (i.e. 2022), they will sell while they can get something for him. So I'm not sure WP fits over there. But maybe you use Chewy as a sub in the centre for Buendia.

Maybe you use WP at right back, which seems less likely. But maybe Cash's injury is more serious that they're saying. And Cash does make me nervous sometimes. He is an upgrade from Elmo, he's good going forward, he tackles well, but he loses players sometimes, either because of lack of concentration or lack of pace. So you could put WP over there...but I don't see it happening.

If they do sign WP, wherever the put him, we will have major competition for spots this year. On top of the above, you have JJ, Wesley...

American Villan since 1992. Former low-level referee.