tomsky_11

22 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

If somehow Chelsea don't finish top 7

Lol what?! If somehow they don't?! They are nowhere near. Not happening.

4 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Wolves game we were abysmal

Or Wolves just set up very well to nullify us, we eventually adapted to it and ended up the more likely to win it. We were not abysmal.

2 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Even if that’s not enough you go to Mings before you go to the championship. This guy is hilarious. Genuinely I think I hate more than anyone in the world except Putin.

oh I forgot all the Tories. But clearly he is one. You can’t be that much of a word removed and not be a Tory.

Yeah, there's a few left footed CBs and midfielders that have PL starts at left back that I didn't included in the list. Then the predominantly right footers with PL starts at left back.

13 minutes ago, Frodo said:

In my eyes Europe isn't happening & I'm glad. we're nowhere near ready for Europe, happy for next season to have a crack at the top 6 & both cups, to throw European games in the mix also, just think be to much & would effect us in the league, look at West Ham. 

Baby steps people, we will get there  

It's very unlikely at this stage, but if we were to somehow make it there's no way IMO that we could say we're nowhere near ready. The form required under Emery to get there would be top 4 level, so if we did it, hard to say the team isn't competative enough. It would also likely help our summer business in terms of increased revenue and potentially increasing the level of players we could attract. More games probably just means more opportunities for academy prospects that are knocking at the first team and/or performing well on loan. And West Ham had European football last season (12 games, plus 6 in domestic cups) and still qualified for this season, so I'm not sure it excuses their poor form this season (they'd have to make the final to have played more games this season)

2 hours ago, Lunarsea said:

Southgate: "I think we've got four left-footed left-backs in the Premier League at the moment so we will have to start looking in the Championship or elsewhere."

In order of number of appearances this season:

Henry, Burn, Mitchell, Shaw, Cresswell, Chilwell, Toffolo, Targett, Thomas

So that's 9 left footed left backs with 164 appearances between them this season. Chilwell and Shaw obviously the two in the squad (also the only two at a "big 6" club...), Mitchell and Cresswell the only others with caps - 2 and 3 respectively. Cresswell's last was 2017. He's had more PL apps than either of them since then, and more last season than Shaw and Chilwell combined. He never pick Targett either when he was an option playing well and regularly for us. Burn is a regular starter at left back in a side 5th in the table. Henry has played more PL games than all listed except Mitchell the last two seasons for a side currently 8th.

48 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

With Brentfords tricky away games and the fact they've been over performing I can see them tailing off quite a bit.

Would you rather have a tricky home or away run? I'd have thought given that on average teams take around 50% more points home than away, you'd rather have the easy home run, as it's a 50% bump on a higher expected points return?

57 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

Chelsea should improve

Chelsea's run in is terrible. I think they'll improve, but any improvement is from a low bar for them. Can't see them doing anywhere near enough to threaten top 7. An advantage for them is that their easier games at home include 5 of the other 7 teams between 4th and 11th. Though their only victory against any of these sides this season was against us under Gerrard, when they were arguably the worst side.

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

Brighton and Fulham will both regress to their mean slightly, but with Fulham's easier run they shouldn't really drop much.

Fulham better run could be looked at as a lot of games against relegation threatened teams. Their other games are away at us and Liverpool, who are arguably both better than current league position, plus the top three (they've not earned a point in 7 games against the current top 5 so far this season). It's tougher than it initially looks.

Can't see Brighton dropping below 60 at this point.

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

I also suspect we won't maintain 1.8.

Nope, probably not. Our remaining fixtures look harder than Emery's to date (avg current position played is 10.5, 10.3 home and 10.7 away so pretty reflective of difficulty over an entire season). But I don't think the drop will be much, maybe 1.5ppg for remainder of season which gets us to 53.

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

Could find it being very tight between 11th and 7th at the end of the season. 

Personally think it's going to be 8th-11th (us, Brentford, Fulham, Chelsea) then a gap to 7th with them to 4th also being tight.

1 hour ago, GlobalVillan said:

We were never in the race to miss out. Said it for months. We have nowhere near the squad for it in any case. 

If you compare us under Emery to the other sides 4th to 11th under their current managers this season, we are ahead of everyone but Spurs (who are only ahead of us by the equivalent of 0.3 points over an entire season). We've got a lot of good youth players, like A Ramsey, Archer, Iroegbunam that could be integrated into the side better with the additional fixtures. And presumably money to spend this summer to get the squad more ready, while european football might also expand our range of options in terms of who we could buy. If we somehow qualified this season we'd absolutely be ready for it IMO.

2 hours ago, romavillan said:

If Fulham, Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton continue on the same ppg, and we continue on Emery's amazing 1.83ppg, then end of the season that would mean...
 

Brighton                    63 pts

Brentford                  59 pts

Aston Villa                56 pts

Fulham                      55 pts

Chelsea                     50 pts

 

Which would see us squeak 9th. I've rounded down, even when it was .96.

 

Updated for last night's games. Added projection for finish at season to date ppg and also at ppg of current manager for remainder of season. The latter sees a small points drop for Brighton and Chelsea and us still leapfrogging both Chelsea and Fulham into 9th.

Have also added the remaining schedule strengths of each side according to average position of opponent in current ppg table. While a few of us (myself included) are expecting Fulham to tail off, their remaining schedule looks by this method the strongest, though they do have fewer games remaining than all but Spurs.

2 hours ago, bobzy said:

But he has done exactly that?

First season, 14 goals and 5 assists
Second season, 11 goals and 2 assists
This season, 9 goals and 4 assists

The thing that he largely is, is consistent.  The second season is a drop off from the first, but he also played about 400 fewer minutes of football (can't remember what this was due to).  His performances are incredibly consistent - which is why he's picked every single week as our first choice striker.

Ollie's PL performance by season and by manager.

26 minutes ago, burchy said:

I think with both of them on 100k now I see them as our first choice CBs so would say it will be Mings left and Carlos right with a new CB/RB hybrid alongside them in a back three (in possession). 

Didn’t Carlos only play CBL due to Kounde playing CBR?

Has he previously stated he prefers the left CB position?

Seems pretty likely to me we are looking at a Mings Carlos pairing. Don’t see Carlos on the right side as an issue. Has done it before and is right footed.

I rarely watch French football so not seen much of him since Fulham. And Watkins absolutely brings a lot other than goals, that maybe Dembele doesn’t? But I’m not suggesting it would be a good move as an Watkins replacement. We need more options in the area. If he’s something different and can get goals then the cost of him, even with big wages, would be significantly better than most alternatives.

Looking at Lacazette’s goal return can see why Demebele might be behind him this season. And as for David yes potential, but that comes with a cost way beyond Dembele. And David’s best season scoring this year is worse than Dembele’s best season, which was only last season so I wouldn’t say he’s past it. In fact, take out penalties which account for .25 goals per 90 for David this season and it’s two of Dembele’s seasons that are better than David’s best.

29 minutes ago, Leeroy said:

Dembele even on modest wages isn't worth it, even on a free, Watkins is far better, and we need players to improve the 11 more than the squad. Duran and Archer are fine as squad players and both are likely to improve by quite a bit unlike Dembele who is 27 this summer.

 

Lyon fans say he's terrible, he most certainly won't end up at Man U or even Newcastle and I'd be very disappointed if he ended up here.

Really?! 0.64 goals per 90 at Lyon. I like Ollie but he's almost half the number in the Prem at 0.37.

The one thing that looks odd with Dembele is he's had two off seasons out of five, so perhaps less consistent? But one of them is this season and he's still at 0.33 goals per 90.

A striker on a free with a chance of being a 1-in-2 scorer scorer. Even doubling his reported wages he'd be half the hit on the P&L that Ings was per season. Seems pretty sensible to me if we can get him.

1 hour ago, John said:

I doubt it, myself. Dembele could have moved during the last window, but he hung around to maximise how much, he himself could make out of the move, rather than to start playing regular football again. Now that there is no fee to be paid, he will make big demands for both a signing on fee and wages, I think clubs who pay silly wages, will add him to their squad, just because they can.  I suspect Manchester United or Newcastle, would be more likely destinations than us.  

I thought some other club owner had come out and said it was basically a done deal to us? And that there'd been negotiations to then sign in Jan early but couldn't agree fee with club?

15 minutes ago, RicRic said:

I say that because martinez may depart  and rates have increased 20m is the new 10m

I doubt we are spending anything of note on a back up. If Martinez did go, which I doubt, then we are talking first choice replacement and possibly more that £20M.

15 hours ago, burchy said:

ST - I think this will be a free (Dembele)

Completely forgot about this. Has anything more come out about it? Rumour was it was already agreed right?

1 hour ago, useless said:

if we sign Ibrahima Bamba as well

And this one. Could be two decent squad additions already sorted for minimal outlay.

On 25/02/2023 at 22:30, tomsky_11 said:

Also, about four or five games ago I had a go at predicting the remaining results for the teams currently 4th down to us in 11th. I think I had us in 9th on 56 points then.

As of now the remaining predicted results give the following finishing table:

4th Liverpool 67

5th Newcastle 64

6th Spurs 62

7th BHA 61

8th Brentford 54

9th Chelsea 53

10th VILLA 53

11th Fulham 51

Updated with recent results:

4th Newcastle 66

5th Liverpool 64

6th Spurs 63

7th BHA 61

8th Chelsea 54

9th Brentford 53

10th VILLA 53

11th Fulham 51

27 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

The challenge we face is the time pressure on our situation.  If we want to keep Kamara, Luiz, and Martinez, and also make the most of Martinez's best years as a keeper,  we need the players that will push us on quickly. 

Otherwise all three of these are looking elsewhere and we're back to square one, with unproven youngsters hoping we gambled on them correctly and they push us on further than the aging crop that we were forced to sell.

Add in to the mix that the future of FFP is up in the air, and its likely to change in the next couple of years. We can also be damn sure that whatever comes in will benefit those already in Europe more.

If ever I was confident about us spending 150m and getting the right kind of players, now would be the time. The quicker Emery gets them in,  the longer he has to work with them, the better our long term future is going to be.

Trying to build slowly (too slowly) is going to see us lose the best players we have, and not actually progress, unless we fluke our way to 6 Duran-esque signings that all make their way to the world's elite at the same time. Its a gamble either way, but feels less risky to go big now.

Yep this is a pretty major point I missed from my post just now. We really need to retain that core for as long as possible.

34 minutes ago, romavillan said:

I might be in the minority but I don't think we should be spending £150m on the players. We aren't at that point yet, we aren't gunning for top 6 yet. Emery has a good eye for bringing through younger talent and it looks like we've got over our brain fart Gerrard era transfer policy with the Duràn signing and selling Ings. If we spend £100m on five outstanding young players to add to what we have that have great resale value and can take us forward I'll be ecstatic. I'd actually be worried if we go for 2 or 3 big names at huge prices.

We've:

• a manager with an incredible track record of qualifying for and the performing in European competition
• a squad under this manager currently performing at a level that over a full season next year whould almost guarantee top 6
• 2-3 positions ripe for improvement in the first XI, while I think more positions than not look pretty set for a number of seasons given the abilty/age/cost/contract combo in them
• a pretty strong focus of youth development and aquisitions, some of whom may well be pushing for first team places by next season
• 23/24 being the last season for which the assessment period for FFP includes the just published highly favourable "Grealish" accounts of 21/22, after which we likely need to have greatly increased revenue (via euro qualification) or generate similar sales profits to 21/22 again
• had messaging from the club that Emery will be heavily backed this summer, so would appear that the club are comforable with increased spending this summer
• a Newcastle side that will be looking to consolidate presumably whatever European qualification they make this season

Obviously, if we can spend as little as possible to bring in players that can immediately improve our first XI and have a long term impact as well that would be perfect. But realistically, unless they are on the tail end of a contract, I think we are looking at the £40-50M mark at least for any player that could walk into our first XI and be the right side of their peak. Guendouzi and Nico Williams are names that came up in Jan. They perhaps fit these requirements. I wouldn''t call them big names particularly. And I'm pretty sure the prices being reported for either of them were at least £40M-50M.

I'm not sure spending all our budget on 5 more Durans, who might not be of the level required for another season or two, if ever, would be the right approach this summer at all.

4 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

Accounts analysed by Swiss ramble with detailed breakdown of our ffp situation 

https://swissramble.substack.com/p/aston-villa-finances-202122

 

Only diffences they have to what's been presented here previous are Women's spend (are they estimating this or can this be found somewhere?) and Covid impact for 2022 (was this in the accounts?)

59 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

A new second striker (Bailey or Traore become the backup, the other is sold)

Just thinking about this, if we do buy here, I think we might seriously push to move Bailey on because as a backup he's gonna cost too much:

• He's only on a 4 year deal, and was bought for over £30M. We are probably talking £8M minimum in amortisation.
• Unsure on salary, a google suggests could be in the £5M per season, which would be higher end of the current squad.
• So, good chance he's a £13M a season hit to the P&L, which is possibly the biggest in the squad (I''m guessing Buendia, Carlos, Digne, Watkins and Coutinho are all around the £10-12M mark)
• His contract is up Summer of 2025, next Summer he's down to his final year. If we want to cash in this Summer might be the best time.
• If we can't sell, could be looking a loan with fee and buy option to ease the FFP burden.
• Alternatively, if we think there is still a place for him here, we might want to consider an extension given he'd still only be 27 when current deal expires.

On Bertie, he's probably around £8M a season cost, with only one season left. This summer is the last chance to cash in on him because his deal is up 2024. So we could be looking to move both.

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

A new right back (Cash becomes rotation/ backup. Konsa even a potential backup next season)

A new complete midfielder (Guendouzi type).

The good thing about these two positions is McGinn and Cash combined might cost less per season than Bailey in the P&L. Cash is secure to 2027 as well, while there'll need to be contract talks with McGinn soon becuase he's up in 2025 and I think well worth retaining.

On the subject of contracts up in 2025, Watkins is also in this bucket. He's certainly earning himself an extension since Emery arrived. But the fact his deal's up as soon does I think potentially leave him open to being moved on if there are decent offers coming in and Emery want to go in a different direction anyway.

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

A cheaper replacement for Digne to free up FFP funds for elsewhere

Might be right on Digne if we can move him on. I think Emery would like to have two players matching profile and abilities of Digne and Moreno. I think this is only worthwhile though if we are looking at a big saving on Digne's current cost plus a decent fee for him (bear in mind it's possible £15M might not be profit on his remaining book value). I'm not sure how likely we are to achieve either of these things though, so it might end up being better to keep the squad more stable.

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

(Tim Iroegbunam).

Good chance he's involved I think if we can get him minutes. Same with Aaron Ramsey and Archer, especially if we are moving on both Bailey and Traore.

1 hour ago, Villan_of_oz said:

Yeah it is heaps buggy but there are tips for getting around in the city without your game crashing so much. Did drive me crazy until I got the hang of it.

Yeah, the one top that seems to have worked for me is dropping the companion. However, I’ve been trying to max out weapons recently and could do with the extra carry allowance for scavenging.

There anything else that helps beyond that?

4 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Thing is, I reckon if you put in Emery's ppg of 1.83 in the PL with us it might paint a more positive picture.

I assume this is the seasons ppg which includes our horrendous start under SG?

Yeah was just ordering by ppg as maybe gives better idea of placings when different numbers of games played.

2 hours ago, John said:

To be honest that was always going to happen, given all the money they spend on players and the number of them that they have. It was a question of time and I'm surprised that it has taken this long really.     

Not sure they’ve done anything to suggest they are going to pull away yet. Looks like two unconvincing wins against bottom half teams in meh form.

In their 12 remaining games they play the rest of the top half bar Fulham and Spurs, plus us (we could be top half too by that point), and Everton and Wolves, two teams in improved form under new management.

20 hours ago, Villan_of_oz said:

Nearly 4 years on, and I have been saying a survivor save for the last few months.... Absolutely loving it.

Anyone else still playing this?

Yes, started back on it with a survivor save a few weeks. Never got round to finishing it before.

Seems pretty buggy on the Xbox which I don’t remember it being when originally played it. The eastern city area around Goodneighbour nearly had me give up as game froze every time I went that way.