Jump to content
Just visiting?

Raymond

Established Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,963

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Raymond

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

    in Villa Talk

    Posted

    There are the things I think about instead of working, so I might as well subject the rest of you to it.

    Brighton has United, Everton, Arsenal, Newcastle, Southhampton, and City before playing us. If Brighton wins the two they should and then picks up some points from the four they shouldn't, things look really bad for us.

    That said, it would not be that surprising if Brighton loses four of their next six before playing us on the final day. If that happens, they will be on at most 58 points.

    I am hopeful we get at least four from our next three, which would also put us on 58. Maybe we can do more -- certainly not scared of Spurs right now -- but four seems reasonable.

    Assuming we are both on 58, we would have to win to get 7th while they could play for a draw assuming the goal differences do not dramatically change by then. 

    Despite what I put earlier, if they win 2, draw 2, and lose 2 and we get the four points I expect, the final day will be exactly the same as if they lost all four of the games against the CL teams. We have to win. They can play for a draw. 

    The least likely scenario in my mind is we are ahead of them going into the final day. It could happen if we beat Spurs or Liverpool -- Wolves is a must-win at this point -- and Brighton loses or draws the four games against the CL teams, but it seems unlikely to me.

    Because of goal difference, it is highly unlikely to me we are clear before that final game since we would need two more points from three than they get from six, but wild stuff happens at the end of the season. If we win all three it is possible. 

    I was thinking Spurs would be our out, but their run-in is so favorable. At least Leeds will likely be fighting for their lives on the final day. We beat them and we could have a shot, especially since we are close in goal difference. It seems more likely to me we finish ahead of Brighton despite the games in hand, though. 

    I am trying to stay positive, but this looks like a tough road. We definitely have outs, but they rely on Brighton losing to the CL sides, Spurs falling apart more than they already have, or us winning three in a row. 

    I think ultimately we are going to regret letting SG go for so long and that game against Leicester, but even if we don't get Europa, to even be in this position right now is amazing. 

     

    • Like 6

    Team shape, tactics and personnel

    in Villa Talk

    Posted

    To me, the real development today was how Mings, Konsa, and Luiz pressed the issue with their passing. 

    Even when we were playing well, that trio too often has settled for the shuffle out wide and then let Moreno/Young get it to the midfield  

    Today they routinely found the midfielders themselves, and doing that in one fewer pass puts a lot more pressure on the defense. I think we saw that in the space JJ and Emi had.

    A great example was from Luiz. He was headed back toward the goal, and in the past he would have passed it to Konsa who would have passed to Young who would have hit it to McGinn. Today, he hit a long pass over the press to McGinn, who immediately put Newcastle under pressure.

    Having McGinn in the front four instead of Leon probably helped open some space, but those passes have been there. Emi consistently finds those spaces. If we start hitting him in them, this could get very exciting.

     

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...
Â