Monsieur Hazdazler

9 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said:

There’s also added flexibility in that Konsa can play right back and chambers is the 4th CB.

All of the second strikers could also cover for Watkins in a pinch or in the lesser cup games. 

It’s only 9 extra games max until Jan and nearly all of them will be games we should easily win. We may even see feeney, kellyman or oreilly get cup game time which would be great for their development.
 

For me it shows that we will only move if the right long term player is available.

Hey, yeah to be honest with Konsa/CHambers I just tried to simplify the whole thing by putting one at CB and one at RB. Konsa has done great in that hybrid role when he's done it this year!

So considering the current squad/depth - players that are realistically part of the squad (bracketed players you would assume also could be). If we are thinking about wanting two players for each position the depth overall is ok:

GK - Martinez, Olsen, Marschall
RB - Cash, Chambers
CB - Konsa, Pau, Carlos and of course Mings as a long term absentee
LB - Moreno, Digne
DM - Kamara, Dougie, Tielemans, Dendoncker (Iroegbunam)
Wide Mid - McGinn, Ramsey, Bert, Bailey, Coutinho, Buendia as a long term absentee
Second Striker - Diaby, Zaniolo
CF - Watkins, Duran

The long term injuries are tough because we have to consider what we do also when they return, not knowing how their recovery will go also. If we buy quality replacements now do we then have an issue to deal with down the track? 

I feel like we have a bit of a weakness in defence - another injury to either Konsa, Pau or Carlos and we are getting very light - I can definitely see us bringing in a right sided defender, whether that's more of a pure CB or RB/CB hybrid I'm not sure. Chambers is a capable back up, but even with him considered due to the Mings injury we are one short. I can see maybe a loan move here to cover Mings absence? Carlos seems to be getting back up to speed which is a real positive.

LB - It seems pretty clear this is dependent on Digne and whether we can line up a suitable alternative. Sensible reasons to make this move but probably not a major stress if the right player isn't available. So would be 1 in, 1 out.

DM - I feel like we are good here?

Wide Mid - When Ramsey is back we are good in terms of raw numbers here. I guess the question here is whether Emery wants to move on Coutinho or even Bert if given the chance. Are we realistically going to upgrade on McGinn and Ramsey? That's a tough one. I don't want us to spend a wad of cash on a player who doesn't clearly improve us just for the sake of an extra body. I think Coutinho moving on would be fine, if Bert can stay fit we'd have 4 players covering two spots there with Buendia to return in the distant future also.

Second Striker - Zaniolo looked handy and Diaby has been excellent... we are so much better in this position now than last year. 

CF - Watkins appears to be very physically robust, so bringing in a quality striker is tough because it becomes a bit like Spurs finding a back up for Kane in some ways, where Watkins is so clearly important to Emery and we need a pure back up. I guess up to Emery as to whether he sees Duran as capable. If Watkins did get injured, could we get by with Diaby for example as the CF and Zaniolo or Bailey alongside him for a period? Hard to say this one. I can see us making a move for someone within the forward line.

Overall I feel like calls for 3-4 signings are probably a bit OTT, but you could probably stretch to 3 with a back up GK, covering defender for the right side and another attacker of some sort. I feel like as Emery has let Archer go with no replacement imminent, he may feel quite comfortable here unless a real step up in quality type of signing is available. It does seem based on rumours we may be after a wide attacker which i think would see Coutinho allowed to move and us becoming open to offers for Bert. I'm genuinely intrigued to see what we do in these final days - if we signed no one I'd still be fairly comfortable with the situation. I know there's always questions like 'what if Martinez gets injured' or 'what if we get another long term defender injury', but all clubs struggle when key players get injured, I'm not sure we can warrant a big spend to cover the potential of an injury when we have numbers in the squad already? 

43 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Great post, and well argued.

He's still young, though. He plays in two roles (6 or 8), where players typically peak quite late - late 20s usually. I don't think there's loads of talent out there in his age group that really rivals him. In the PL it's only Rice (23) in his age bracket who is clearly better than him defensively, although I think he's competitive in other areas of play. Ndidi and Rodri are both 25. Beyond that, most teams have older players holding.

Looking outside the PL, there are a few names out there... Locatelli, De Jong, Kessie...

But as I say, it's a hard position to recruit, and IMO Douglas Luiz will always be a very valuable asset here, even as we bring in more talent. His style of play fits lots of different tactical systems, and he generally shows good game intelligence. He'll keep getting better over time, and I think we'd regret selling him.

I do also see the arguments that he can be a bit soft in the tackle, and maybe doesn't create or score enough when he's in attacking positions. I'd keep him for another couple of years at least, though.

Thanks for the kind words!

I would be more than happy if he re-signed and stuck around - that would be in the clubs best interests, as you say he is young with plenty of potential, and is already playing at a very good level for his age with international experience to boot. Him re-signing would protect his value and help us keep hold of a valuable player, as you say who can play in two positions and is tactically flexible. 

Ultimately though where I think the problem lies, is that with only 18months left on his deal we have to provide the platform for him to progress his career otherwise he simply will not sign a new deal, and we won't get the opportunity to keep him around for a few years. If you were Douglas Luiz and you were stuck behind McGinn and Ramsey (and potentially Sanson - very debatable) for your preferred position in the team, and you want to see your career develop in that particular role, you probably wouldn't sign a new deal until your playing time in that role changed. Certainly now he will be our first choice DM through until the summer, and we will almost certainly offer him better terms to try to encourage him to extend his contract. At that stage it will be up to him whether he wants to accept the higher wage to play in a position he doesn't really want to play long term, or be stuck on the bench fighting for his place - he may be ok with that and he takes the higher wage in the end which is fine and secures our position at least, but probably not best for his career. 

If he gets assurance that next season he will play further forward that might help, but ultimately in that situation he may just prefer to wait to see if that actually comes to pass, in which case we enter a risky scenario where he goes into the final 12 months of his deal and we lose a significant sum of money if he leaves on a free. I think the stage is set for a situation where we let him go in the summer to protect our financial position if he hasn't accepted a new contract - ultimately he's a good player but isn't first choice for us in his favoured position, and our recruitment team will fancy they can get a more specialised DM who wants to play that role - that will probably impact the financial package he is offered as well. It's a fortunate problem to have because Jacob Ramsey has come on so well it's added an extra layer of competition in that role. 

3 hours ago, Yorke81 said:

Great comment! Looking at option 2 and 3, your business point of view is focused on cold cash - sell now for an ok fee or wait till summer and get a rather deflated fee. However, the difference of having or not having Luiz as a temp at DM could also be the difference of mid-table boredom and fighting for fringe european places - what is the alternative if we sell him now without bringing in a new DM?

The prospect of pushing for Europe is a rather compelling business point of view in my opinion. It's a slim chance at best, but the upside would be much larger than the reduced value of Luiz due to his contract length being reduced by 6 months.

I of course trust in our management to take the right direction here

I don’t think there was going to be a situation where we let him go without bringing in a DM, wasn’t really ever an option I considered us taking. It seems pretty clear now the deals weren’t available so we hold station until the summer and try to convince him to sign a new deal to hold his value. Assuming is he dedicated to the idea of playing further forward I think now we are stuck with him not signing a new deal and we have a weaker summer position, but there’s no way the club would let him go now without a new DM coming in simply to generate a higher fee for him. 

Good stuff today, Arsenal aren’t quite the team they used to be but they’re still decent and we controlled the game well and managed it well. 
 

I was quite critical of our game management against Southampton when protecting a 1-0 lead, we lost control of the game and were lucky to not concede in my opinion (not to play down some of the quality defending the players put in late in that game as well). This time around with Nakamba on the pitch shielding the defence, and making earlier proactive substitutions made a big difference...Trez for Traore early on, and withdrawing Barkley made us a lot more solid and it’s what I thought we should have done vs Southampton. Unsure if Smith reflected on it, looked at the data and knew he needed to adjust his approach or he just read this one differently, either way well done Deano.

Great response from the poor performance mid week as well, just what we needed.

Do we think Barkley was annoyed with his performance, simply wanted to keep playing or some other deeper issue? Strange to see him so irritated but he’s not been great recently. Thought Sanson might get a run today but Ramsey is proving himself to be a good option in his cameos. I don’t mind a new player being bedded in slowly, but he’s going to need a chance at some stage! 

14 hours ago, Tommo_b said:

And yet that’s football and happens up and down the professional leagues... especially for the top 6 teams. 

It does but it doesn't mean we can't try to mitigate it.

For perspective we gave up 3 out of 4 of the biggest chances Southampton had on xG in the last 20minutes or so, all excellent chances (per xG over 0.3 which is a very very good chance), that doesn't include Ings offside finish which was marginal. Prior to that we'd only given up one decent chance which was the Cash handball, then a load of low percentage chances. Worth noting as well though that two of those chances were from the same set piece where shots were blocked from both Adams and Stephens

Of the 11 shots we conceded in the box, 7 of them were in the last 21 minutes, and the vast majority of Southampton's xG total was from 69th minute onwards. 

I understand fully that we've got the result, so clearly it was the right call, but when the game goes from being fairly even, to massively in Southampton's favour during the second half, with their best chances coming at the end, it shows we lacked control of the situation. Yes we defended with bodies on the line, but if we do that every game more often than not we're going to concede. We barely created a chance in the second half, which just as much as the chances conceded showed we were struggling down the stretch. Traore did very little and isn't a defensive asset, so even if he wanted to keep the midfield 3 the same, why wouldn't he switch to Trez?

As noted before, I love Deano, fully in support of him, but everything but the scoreline points to a lack of action contributing to potential goals conceded. He's frequently shown that his use of the bench isn't perhaps what everyone agrees with, I'd love to sit down with him so he could explain it to me so I could be on side with it. Ultimately, he doesn't need to justify anything to me and he's paid the big bucks for a reason 

1 hour ago, Tommo_b said:

If we are looking retrospectively... we got a clean sheet and won the game, I think he will be happy how he managed the game against a good Southampton side.

I disagree, we achieved that partially through heroic defending and some good fortune. We shouldn’t be aiming to rely on a few millimetres in an offside call, because that could easily have gone against us.

27 minutes ago, Okonokos said:

No. It looked fantastic. Great kit.

Half expected Gary Charles to pop up at right back 

Just now, darrenm said:

You think the replacement would have been in exactly the same place? I doubt it. If we conceded then we can speculate if it was right or not. But we didn't.

We’ve absolutely got away with it though, by a whisker. We invited pressure by leaving tired legs on the pitch and were fortunate. I don’t think McGinn off was the right sub anyway, Trez and Nakamba for Traore and Barkley around 75 would have been sensible to bring on cover for the defence and work rate late in the game, plus a 3rd sub to time waste and break up play at the very end. 

2 minutes ago, Tommo_b said:

Exactly!

Nakamba for Barkley was the obvious sub though not McGinn. Switch the midfield set up around and we probably don’t end up in that situation. Was absolute madness to not freshen up.

Absolutely got away with one there, we defended well but very fortunate with two VAR decisions that went our way. We’ve had marginal offsides so I can be happy with that but I’d have been furious about the handball if I was a Southampton fan.

love Deano and completely support him but it was painful to watch that game drift away from us with a lack of subs. We needed to do the Nakamba swap with Barkley much earlier, we looked ropey in that area from about 75mins and it nearly cost us. We were about as lucky tonight as Burnley were the other day, so I guess our week has evened out.

Apparently he’s lacking match fitness so I wouldn’t expect a start today. Perhaps in the cup later this week?

34 minutes ago, Adam2003 said:

Curious what you mean here. As I see it he’s very clearly looking to build a team with a defined but mobile striker, two goalscoring forwards playing on their ‘inverted’ foot and focused on getting goals, with the width coming from full backs, and between those lines of attack a hardworking midfield of technically good and creative players.

Whether he’s getting it right we will see but I think that’s definitely the intention.

Yeah I think you could see the same intention last year when we had Grealish in midfield but he quickly realised Wesley, El Ghazi and Trez we’re not going to score enough!

Just rewatching the game now (I’m in New Zealand so not just randomly watching villa friendlies at ridiculous times of the night) and the first thing that stands out over the initial 15mins or so is that:

1) Cash made a few initial errors just looking a bit fresh in new surroundings

2) They forced a lot of play down the left side at least initially, and Shaw, James, Rashford and Van De Beek were all sitting on his shoulder or presssuring him at various stages. Quite a few times you could see Cash was trying to deal with multiple people and kinda got caught in between. Whenever they had possession near our box you’d see one of their CM’s sit right in between Cash and Konsa, so that’s probably an overload they’re working on in training.
 

when I watched initially I just thought he looked a bit lost but he actually had a few struggles being outnumbered. He’s also quick and made a good covering run back when Rashford got sent through just before we scored. 
 

Definitely not the perfect start by any means but gotta give him time to get up to speed.

15 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I've been saying this for a long time now.. I think many people think if Jack stays he will still stay out left. I personally think that as soon as we have the quality and pace out wide Jack goes back central. It's the position he wants to play, his best position and gives him the licence to roam both sides of the pitch. Smith I think will facilitate this which is why I think the focus primarily is for another left sided player to be brought in. Then we will see a 3 of Jack, McGinn and Dougie in the middle with Dougie sitting in front of the defence. A 4-1-2-2-1.

I thought this was pretty likely as well but then there’s a lot of rumours we are keen on a new central midfielder as well for decent money, which kinda goes against that theory. I feel like our next signing/s will confirm what the plan is here. If we bring in a wide left player then I find it hard to see us spending big on another centre mid

2 hours ago, Steero113 said:

Saw this and this was all I could see to be honest, what a waste of money...

I watched Kepa a lot when he was at Athletic Club (and I mean a lot, like probably 50-60% of his games In full) and he was exceptional.

I really have no clue what has happened to him at Chelsea

On 10/09/2020 at 07:59, villalad21 said:

If we don't have Keinan on the bench we don't have anyone on the bench who can make an impact. Keinan tends to run at defenders, creating a bit of havoc and getting into decent scoring positions.

His ability to bulldoze his way past players because of his pace and strength is marvelous to watch.

Samatta is looking completely lost at this level.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but i really like Keinan and think he offers us a lot.

Oh I agree with you in many respects, so we don’t have to just agree to disagree here. I think Davis is the best option we have off the bench right now. However I’d rather make the sacrifice and see him have a proper season of first team football to develop rather than being an impact sub with us as I think he will be better off for it

16 minutes ago, villaglint said:

He said we were preparing a bid, I’ve heard we are waiting for Bournemouth to brace for the bid before actually making the bid. 

It’s very much poor gentlemanly conduct to not allow the other team to adequately brace before submitting said bid

15 minutes ago, abdulaziz1 said:

King would give us different thing, pace and tricky for a striker. If we can complement it with Benrahma or Rashica then I think we had a huge summe. Probably a DCM then we're a totally different team!

Douglas Luiz will be playing defensive mid with Nakamba as backup. We perhaps need another more attacking CM alongside McGinn if Grealish is being kept out wide left. If we sign two strikers (eg King and Watkins) then you might see Grealish drop into central midfield with a front 3 of Trez, King and Watkins.

personally I don’t think we will sign both a number 8 and another striker, and whichever we bring in will tell you where Grealish will play

The thing I like about this signing is that he looks like the right fit for our forward line. We really lacked a player of his qualities last season. Yes the fee is high but he’s young with room to grow - hopefully he makes the step up no worries.
 

Welcome Ollie

1 minute ago, Okonokos said:

Well apparently none of their players had relegation wage drops in their contracts so it wouldn't surprise me if they just want him off the wage bill.

If that's true, it's terrible club management from a club of their size, stature, stadium size etc. You can't make yourself entirely reliant on TV money when your income streams are low. I hope for their sake that's not the case.