villakram

7 hours ago, blandy said:

I would argue that the soap box is being used by deniers, career doubt-casters and conspiracy theorists and other cranks. Because the evidence of climate change is clear, or as you put it in this case:

Right... but it is rather annoying to have any conversation that discusses the issues around measurements etc. immediately associated (and disparaged by association) with conspiracy stuff.

On 14/01/2023 at 03:32, blandy said:

Sorry to Labour this, but to an extent you're right, it is important for data and measurements to be accurate. And to a, er, degree it's fine to question the tolerance on one set of measurements on one occasion on one day and ask 'how accurate is this data?". But it kind of misses the big picture. In the case of some commentary quite deliberately so. It absolutely was baking hot, abnormally so, in England last summer. Whether the sensors at Coningsby are accurate to 1 degree, or 0.5 degrees, or whether clouds or a passing jet affected a single reading is completely missing the trend. That same sensor has sat there recording 28 degrees, 31 degrees, 27 degrees etc and so on for years with no controversy..As soon as it records 40+ degrees some conspiracy theories are aired about positioning or alleged air traffic or whatever to deny it was exceptionally hot, or to lay seeds of doubt in people's minds. It's bollex. The evidence of man made climate change is utterly overwhelming.

Soap boxes have little to do with the accuracy of a national temperature record.

Not that Elon really cares as they've been beta testing on public roads forever. Should really state "... traditional/legacy automaker...".

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/01/mercedes-becomes-first-automaker-to-get-approval-for-level-3-autonomy-in-the-u-s/amp/

"Mercedes-Benz said today that it has received regulatory approval to operate Level 3 autonomous driving function on Nevada’s roads. That makes it the first automaker to earn such an approval in the United States."

3 hours ago, blandy said:

No, there aren't. The temperature sensors are not right next to the aircraft operating area(s). A significant number of weather sensors are located on airfields, for obvious reasons, but they are positioned away from the aircraft activity*, because, well, if they weren't, you'd get false wind readings, false temperatures and so on. It matters to aviation because of safety - cross wind limits on take off and landing, for example. Max fuel loads vary with temperature (fuel expands when it's warmer. Air is less dense when it's warmer, so lift is lower, jet engine power is lower).

*I've edited this to be ultra clear - the weather sensors are not miles away from where aircraft are/go, but they are not positioned where the aircraft start up and sit with engines idling etc. They need to be able to measure runway cross-winds (as I wrote above) and temperature, but they're absolutely not placed next to or behind where aircraft sit with their engines running, for example.

RAF Coningsby. Not itself rural.

If you can find an image of exactly where this station lies that would be great. It is well known over here, for example, that the location that sensors have been located (for multiple decades) have changed drastically, with improper positioning of weather stations in relation to structures being a regular occurrence over time as we humans have continued to concrete over everything and build housing everywhere.

The data on that day shows minute scale behavior that looks anomalous. E.g., see that last couple of paragraphs in the following article and the rather unsatisfactory response of the MET service person.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/met-office-responds-to-doubts-over-hottest-uk-temperature-being-recorded-at-lincolnshire-raf-base/ar-AA14Em1k

"That sort of rise can reportedly be caused by sunlight breaking through clouds, though the article insists that July 19 was "more or less cloudless" around 3pm. The Met Office spokeswoman said that there was "some thin cloud" around the county through the afternoon, with a south-south-westerly wind of around 16mph (14 knots) through the day."

Maybe it was clouds, but I would say that the specific number is in doubt. The broader point about multiple stations measuring 40C is probably valid and I would bet that one of those stations has a more reliable dataset. Just details in the larger scheme of things, but this is an important detail, when it comes to things climate related and doing a scientific measurement correctly.

2 hours ago, Xann said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/2022-provisionally-warmest-year-on-record-for-uk

There are significant issues with the 2022 number due to its proximity to airplane activity on that particular day at that particular time. The 38C ish boundary appears to be valid though, even if we ought to be concerned by the increasing encroachment of concrete jungles on the measuring device locations.

4 hours ago, MakemineVanilla said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/11/joe-biden-second-batch-classified-documents

"Joe Biden was facing fresh scrutiny over his handling of government secrets on Wednesday after a second batch of classified materials was reportedly found at a location linked to him."

 

It's quite entertaining watching the media turn themselves in knots trying to report on this after their end of the world Trump related reporting. Now before anyone starts... most of the media over here is of the narrative/opinion vs news variety, hence the mirth.

22 hours ago, mjmooney said:

Your shadow is confirmation that light has traveled nearly 93 million miles, unobstructed, only to be deprived of reaching the ground in the last few feet thanks to you. You bastard. 

Party at your gaff!

4 hours ago, JoshVilla said:

UFC is finally back this weekend so it got me thinking, what's everyone looking forward to this year?

1. I'd imagine that Leon will defend his belt against Usman in the UK. It'll be interesting to see how he gets on since he won't be fighting at crazy elevation this time around. Hopefully he pulls it off again.
2. LHW is a bit of a mess, but I'd like to see Jiri get his belt back when he's fit again.
3. HW is also a bit of a mess, but hopefully Ngannou will be back and it can get moving again. Maybe Jon Jones fights Miocic first, as was rumoured, and then Ngannou fights the winner? Pavlovich is making some noise too so maybe he'll be due a shot soon.
4. Speaking of HW, hopefully Aspinall will be back soon too. It'd be great to see him challenging for the title in the next year or so.
5. Would like to see Arnold Allen get a shot at Volk for the FW title.

6. Dana getting some comeuppance.

16 hours ago, blandy said:

They’re not though are they?  The reps results were the worst for the not in power party in a mid term for ages, if not ever. The Normal course is for the oppo to make large gains, is it not?

Rule of thumb is +30, under that is to be sad, over is to be happy, with +40 being the unofficial happy number. ~80 is when all the ridiculous predictions come out about future dominance.

Nice 2nd figure on the following page. "The results of the 2022 midterms held true to form, with the opposing party gaining House majority."

https://about.bgov.com/brief/balance-of-power-republican-majority-in-the-house/

3 hours ago, magnkarl said:

I remember back in 2011 (correct me on this?) when the Republicans had issues with the 'tea party' faction who went into the same kind of hijacking without a clear goal like we're seeing from the MAGA-crew now. The whole thing ended in a disaster for the GOP, and then House Speaker Boehner had to drag the same kind of idiots into a room to tell them "Get behind me or I won't be able to do my job." They didn't get behind him and Obama went from strength to strength due to the infighting in the GOP.

Long may it continue, the GOP doesn't learn from or own up to any of its mistakes (Trump, abortion, gun-madness, MAGA, qanon etc).

... and then Boehner was taken out onto a public podium and stabbed in the face by them (metaphorically!)... Cantor and the Wisconsin chap followed. Mr. McCarthy was the 3rd wheel in that particular trio of hotshots. Hence, the current hostility. Fortunately McCarthy has very little in the sense of principles and will happily blow in whatever way the wind/money takes him. It would be funny if he ended up being "successful" in comparison to those other two.

9 hours ago, Lichfield Dean said:

It was always likely to fail first time. Space is hard. As long as funding isn't pulled they'll get it right eventually.

Not really. Launches like this are old hat and it is a significant blow to Virgin and the Cornwall launch port. They'll be grounded for a while and the competition in this ermmm - space - is intense.

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

Are you sure? Loads of his House picks and Governor races lost…the MAGA candidates at most levels got beaten in many races it was thought pre election that they win.  I remember post election, candidate after candidate that Trump had backed lost.  I have no ‘to hand’ facts but I can’t believe his team did “good”.  

Most moderate Republicans that meant to win at various levels did, the blow out seemed to be the extreme Republicans were the ones who the voters didn’t take to and they were mostly MAGA Trump backed Republicans.  If you have data that contradicts this I’d love to see but it didn’t seem that way…The only MAGA winners were in ballots they had no chance to lose mostly, if it was close they generally lost.

This is a reasonable breakdown.

"Former President Donald J. Trump planned to use the 2022 midterm elections as a show of political strength. Georgia voters had other thoughts."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/06/us/politics/trump-candidate-endorsement-georgia.html

All politics is fundamentally local, e.g., they had no shot in the MI governor race as Whitmer has done a solid job. On the other hand Georgia was a slam dunk as the other races in that state showed and the candidate was on the surface great but was torpedoed by some truly sordid personal life stories. Oz in PA was a weird political transplant, which is always risky, but still lost to a clearly medically compromised opponent. I can't comment on AZ or Nevada, but they were tight races and were mostly lost on those grounds vs obvious candidate issues.

Politics is tough. Remember how hard Obama had to work in his post 2008 elections, even with how popular he was. 

Title could easily be changed to (Another)Brazil Coup D'etat Underway. Politics there are infamously messy.

10 hours ago, blandy said:

Yes. I wonder if the gallery has changed, though?  It seems like the GOP has moved on from Trump. It seems like all these culture war things have fallen out of favour with a lot of people, judging by the mid-term results - Trump backed candidates mostly got trounced, fewer people believed the”steal” lie, wade-Rowe overturned was a handicap. Will people really be impressed by investigations into Hunter?

This is less clear than people would like it to be imho. His high profile senate picks got well beaten but otherwise his "team" did good all the way down the repub political ladder. Post election surveys suggest the supreme court abortion decision was an important contribution to voter turnout from the incumbent party. We should also remember that elections like this are the normal course of things with waves being much harder to generate historically. The speaker vote is much tougher to read, e.g., Bannon et al. were very much behind the "rebels", and he is very much part of team MAGA/Trump. 

On 07/01/2023 at 10:11, OutByEaster? said:

So, government, the instrument of the people and representative power of Democracy, is paralysed and inert for a couple of years?

That's handy for the corporate powers that run the nation for their own interests in its stead.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence. 

 

They passed the giveaway already in the lame duck, so the first 12 months are already done. Lots of playing to the gallery ahead.

1 minute ago, meregreen said:

Pelosi was great. One of the few US politicians I rate. Trump hated her, so that’s a big thumbs up from me.

Such partizan takes are a part of the problem. 

Pelosi was a very effective politician. She did implement changes that significantly undermined the democratic powers of the elected individual members of the chamber. I do not see that as a positive in such a society as the US.

4 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Haha - I just saw a clip of Matt Gaetz calling Trump asking him to vote McCarthy 'sad'! The rats are fleeing the Trump boat. What a vote, this is more entertaining than when Trump lost the election..

"We are not a cult."

"We debate like our 4dads intended."

"We are independent Americans fighting for the people who elected us.... lobby money, swamp, insiders."

Loads of ways to spin this in whichever manner is required. The next speaker position is somewhat of a poisoned chalice now. It'll be interesting to see who they eventually pick and what this means for repub party leadership more broadly.

This should be the end of McCarthy. I am not sure why anyone cares about him being dragged over the coals a little on the way out. It is more the pity that the Dems never had the stomach to do this with Nancy. 

1 minute ago, thunderball said:

Very ineffective for the second game running

Playing to his scouting report... the reason we were able to sign him.

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

This is clearly very exciting to those of you in the states.

I should confess I have no idea what the speaker does - I'm guessing it's not like the House of Commons where they just occasionally shout at the children?

Can someone give me the (very) simple version of what's happening here please?

 

They are the chair and decide on what happens (which bill etc.) and when (timeline for things). 

The powers that Nancy accumulated during her reign are a large part of the bkg issue here. The members want some power back after Nancy turned the speaker position into a supreme ruler... much like how Blair turned the PM presidential at the expense of the wider cabinet and the UK has been suffering ever since.

I so hope all of tonights backroom meetings are leaked liked crazy over the coming days.

2 hours ago, Rodders said:

St. James Park still not been blown up by a Yemeni freedom fighter yet? Damn shame. 

**** everyone in that club. ( And **** anyone who'd say they'd take their money "cos that's just football" too, go and drown )

Yes.

Meanwhile... Egyptian dictatorship money.

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

 

Will the republicans find their John Major 

Such a pity that similar "chaos" cannot erupt in the senate. Far too much money/power there to allow that to happen. This is not really all that big event though for those in other countries where coalition government shenanigans are an all too regular occurrence, however.

4 hours ago, bickster said:

It's like it's a compulsion with him, He must have caught it from his sponsor, Vladimir Putin

George Santos owned no rental properties

Still the bigger mystery, that fellow Putin shill Tulsi Gabbard didn't even touch on (unsurprisingly) is where did he get all his money from? He went from earning $55,000 per year to a multimillionaire almost over night

Don't be fooled by Gabbard, she's trying to bury him before the really awkward questions start to be asked. She's not doing that for America

Reds under the bed!

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Ukraine's losses are nowhere near Russias in terms of generational loss. Russias problem isn't just the meat grinder. Fertile males have been leaving Russia for years to live abroad, they have no interest in going back. This problem has rapidly accelerated since the war began and especially since the threat of mobilisation

They had ~20% population loss since the 90s, so hardly all sunshine and roses.