Gringo

It's Ellis' own arrogance and ego that will stop him selling.

Following prudence, you are now bestowing upon cuddly the gift of consistency. After all Ellis has never acted like a chameleon changing his opinion or support just to suit himself. Nope, straight down the middle that bloke. never waivers.

whaat is laffable is your ignorance of Ellis, int he past before his heart op he always denied he wwould ever sell, any time there was a rumour he either dismissed the bid or claimed the box.

the fact he has never said he would staay is totally signifcant aand as a friend of mine said who works in PR, if you don't hear anything it is true, in PR it is toally bad practice to allow what you think are untrue rumours float without a denial.

I think you'll find people worry more about the rumours that are true than the false ones. And allowing this untrue rumour to float has let him get away answering any questions regarding appointing some responsible management.

Quite what an 82 year old will do with all those millions I don't know. If he claims to be Mr. Aston Villa he would give back a large chunk of it after taking it out of the club for years. As my grandad would say, you can't take it with you.

Because Ellis, like many of us, has kids, grandkids (I assume) to pass his inheritance onto.

If I had grandkids, I'd rather give them a football club than a trust fund.

I know Andy and as I have said before I understand this.

But the point is that at no point has Ellis ever refuted the club is for sale (Gringo fails to recognise this)

So cos Ellis has not said it isnt not untrue, then it must most likely be possible? What tosh. tony blur has not said the moon is not made of cheese, cue "blair believes moon is made of cheese" headlines. Laffable.

Gringo, you seem to place a lot of emphasis on the kit deal

So cos it doesnt support your position it should be ignored. I am not placing any kind of emphasis on it, cos nothing is happening, just surprised that no one had linked the two.

but the money involved is small, like the shirt sponser deal and I doubt Ellis was even involved, all we did was to take up an option which if we get new oweners can be rescinded.

The deal cannot be easily rescinded, its a signed contract that would have to be paid up.

Basically as NV will confirm if this was renewed we would be in trouble getting a new kit out in the summer, it was a simple option and a way to get good PR.

Not a lot shoudl be read into this nor the shirt sponsers.

And as NV will confirm, kit deals have been done much later in the year than January in the past. Why, with a takeover just around the corner would you rush it through. Or if you were forced, why not agree just a one year deal, allowing the new owners a full 12 months to pick their own suppliers.

The answer. Within Villa they don't think a takeover is just around the corner, and this is a way of getting some quick cash in cos cash flow is shite at the moment - we aint broke, plenty of mortgagable assets, but in terms of cash its rather thin on the ground.

None of this makes sense if there was a background of takeover activity.

Scenario 1:

Doug employs merchant bankers.

They set up a deal with the Comers.

Doug screws the deal up

Bankers want money for all the work they've put into getting the deal as far as it did and they want doug to pay seeing as he was the problem

Doug sacks bankers and appoints Rothers on a do-nothing say-nothing retainer til the next AGM

Scenario 2:

Doug employs merchant bankers.

They set up a deal with the Comers.

Comers screw the deal up.

Bankers want money for all the work they've put into getting the deal as far as it did.

Doug thinks about retaining the bankers and promising them a slightly bigger commission when the deal finally goes through but instead sacks bankers and appoints Rothers, a more costly option.

Doug won't spend money cos of the takeover.

Doug spends money to ensure takeover.

Doug wont do player deals cos of the takeover

Doug does 2 year merchandising deal in spite of the takeover.

exactly Gringo and therefore you wonder if there is any viable deal out there apart from the Comer's interest ?

No one disputes Ellis is looking to sell (for whatever reason) it is clear that the Comer's have not put in the bid ellis wants so now he is touting, if after a while it is clear npo-one else is interested and he wants to sell then the deal has to be struck with teh Comer's.

the only way Ellis can obtain the maxuium value for his shares (as he sees it) is for him still to be able to do the deal, because once he dies I doubt anyone will pay much more than £50m.

everyone is of course naturally sceptical of Ellis and his motives but this goes far beyond a way of simply not buying in hte transfer window, Rothschilds would not be involved if this was the case.

I dispute it - what do you think that post says.

If he was selling he wouldnt be doing two year kit deals now would he?

Ellis is pretending to sell, then creating obstacles to the deal, ie not wanting to sell. Someone who is "willing to sell at the right price" is not the same as someone actively pursuing a deal.

He is happy for things tick over until his full super man powers are restored and he can take responsibility for things back off stevie boy.

And its simply not true that they would necessarily achieve a lower price once he pops it. Its just something you've made up cos it suits your position.

Yes we will Jez - that's why we have employed Rothchilds...

Merchant bankers can be used to defend a company from takeover.

What doug says and what doug does are quite often two different things. Why with all the evidence to the opposite are so many willing to give him the benefit of the doubt now, when they havent believed a word he has said for years?

Note: manu spent £6m last year on bankers defending themselves from a takeover. Expensive these merchants.

If this deal does not go through and I still think it might soon, I wonder whether the Russians might become interested again as I think it was suggested that they would be waiting in the wings for exactly that to happen?

If I wanted to buy a house, I would put an offer in.

I would not wait for someone else to put an offer in, do their survey and then hope they try to gazunder the seller and the deal falls apart.

If a russki wanted to buy a football club, he would walk up with a big chequebook as per chelsea, pompey. He would not sit waiting, hoping for the other persons deal to fall through.

And even if he was such a poor businessman that he sits and waits his turn, he would surely by now picked up the odd clue that this deal wasnt going well at all and now would eb the time to strike. However it appears that "now" was a couple of weeks before xmas when it all went rather pear shaped.

Cuddly refuses to spend money on players, loan fees, or a desperately needed new pitch.

Conclusion 1: His hands are tied cos of the takeover process and can't commit the club to such expenditure as he won't be in charge shortly.

Conclusion 2: He's a tight git with a cashflow problem.

Cuddly signs up new two year kit deal with Hummel.

Conclusion 1: Err, well, if there was a takeover on, surely they wouldn't want him setting up contracts that dont run out till summer 2008, especially when one of the main areas for increasing revenue flows would be shirts and associated kit and leisurewear sales.

Conclusion 2: He's a tight git with a cashflow problem.

Come on, some one come up with some positive sping for this one.

Within four weeks, before new year, next 48 hours, next 3 days......and that was a fortnight ago.

One buyer has come forward, they wont deal at the price cuddly wants, and they wont even speak to the press - all we have is Neville's words, the ones with the money have kept schtum.

The appointment of rothers could be on a keep quiet basis, ie make it look as if we are actively seeking a buyer, but please dont really spend any money. If you were interested in buying a perm football club, wouldnt you have expressed an interest before now. You wouldnt wait for a deal to fall apart before declaring your hand.

Any other interested party, oh a non-existant norwegian?

Transfer window will be closed within a week, it will probably all unravel then.

You might lie to people at book signings or make up stories to reporters, but when talking to the stock exchange cuddly will tell the truth, maybe not the whole truth, but the truth.

Neville says the delay is DD.

Cuddly is saying there is no deal in progress.

One is a mate of blokes with maybe some money.

The other holds all the cards. And in order to keep the company on the takeover list employs rothers on a do-nothing retainer and carries on playing tennis.

Is it not about this time of year the pleasant old gent flies out to Oz to watch the tennis - there goes the window.........

Gringo you have a point because AVIL said

LONDON (AFX) - Aston Villa Investments Ltd, the acquisition vehicle formed

for the purpose of making an offer for Aston Villa Plc, says talks are ongoing

with the football club's advisors and due diligence is progressing.

so there is misleading information or maybe as Malc says a delaay for time.

also it is interesting to note that the PR from Villa contained no contact details at the club for the first time.

It sounds to me like cuddly saing they were never serious. If they wanted a delay for time they would have said DD was ongoing. It says it never happened, never got that far.

To date the Board is not aware that AVIL has performed detailed due diligence on Aston Villa

Does that not say that this takeover approach has not entered a due diligience phase?

Am I missing something? Has it taken 12 weeks for them to offer a price and doug to say no? And if there is already someone waiting in the wings to offer, why hire another merchant bank to find a buyer?

To date the Board is not aware that AVIL has performed detailed due diligence on

Aston Villa and has not been provided with evidence of AVIL's financial ability

to proceed with an acquisition.

"The Takeover" is over. Dead. Schnukt. Gone. No more.

Give the thread a quiet burial.

You have to wonder what Jack Petchey will do.

If the Comer brothers pull out it is unlikely that something will happen in the near future.

Our half yearly reports are due very shortly and people arent expecting them to show much that is positive.

As time passes the value of his shares will diminish, the offer of £5.60 or whatever is unlikely to beaten, and I suspect any offers in the future to be sub £5.00.

If I was him Id want the cash out as quick as possible.

If he did sell the pressure would be back on Ellies big style.

Petchey is about to pick up £30m from other deals and so is hardly short of cash.

And you never know, he might be waiting for cuddly to croak so he can assume power.

A takeover? Maybe, but not this one, not at this time.

cuddly is not a motivated seller, not a willing seller. He will only sell if someone was to meet his ever expanding list of conditions.

This is becoming very predictable isn't it?

Not at all, sometimes we have a crucial 24 hours, sometimes it's a crucial 48 hours and now they've sprung a surprise crucial 72 hours on us - I wonder what could be next...

Are these crucial hours to run concurrently on sequentially.

When does the window close?

the stance we choose to take of self sacrifice for the greater good, even if its only a small impact on my individual part, is in the hope that things will change for the better...

if thats damaging short term but makes our long term future better, then thats the cross we have to bare....

How noble the Villa Park martyrs are. How enlightened that they can see what us 'normal' Villa fans cannot.

Did your boycott mean you didn't go to Rotterdam? Did it mean you didn't got to Wembley for the FA Cup final or League Cup finals in the 90's/00? Thought not.

Didnt stop us going to the 1957 FA cup final either??????????

I am sure different people stopped going at different times.

Some people will have made a concious decision not to go any more. They will have decided enough is enough and made a vow not to step inside Villa Park till he is gone. For others the decision may have been less concious. If the kids arent clammering to go then you might not bother. If a couple of your mates stop going it might not be the occassion it once was, not worth the dough.

You cannot blame stayaway fans for the club being short of money, the blame lies with the executive. They 'manage' the club, they create and invigorate revenue streams.

Its not the ones that are refusing to go to Villa Park that are killing the club, its the ONE that is refusing to leave.

I agree Jon with you I think his faamily are driving this because frankly I don't think they want teh hassle of selling them when he dies ...

Ian, you have said this on a few occassions. Is there any evidence to support this view or just something you have made up?

Why should the family want to sell?

Does Peter not want a go?

Could just appoint a CEO and let the dividend cheques roll in every 6 months.

So for all the reasons they might want to sell, there are reasons they may not want to sell.

So it is basically a mute point, unless of course you have some evidence to back such a point of view up.

As was said on this thread previously, its a negotiating stance.

Everything has been agreed - apart from the price.

Which could be a rather large sticking block. That was why neville proclaimed a deal complait before xmas, to put pressure upon cuddly to sell up at his price.

Cuddly would rather sit in his bathing chair, with no notion of selling up, but with an AGM and a transfer window succesfully negotiated.

Takeover could be done by new year

shouldnt this thread be locked ? :winkold:

No wink required. Other people thought the "takeover is dead" thred should be locked because of a PR statement from someone not putting up any money.

Maybe we could have a sticky thread for the next couple of years, so all the blx spoken about takeovers could be kept in one place?

Nothing happening here, please move on.

it seems to me and others that maybe ellis is holding out for someone else who might either a) get him a better deal in money or somehow keep him in power.

It seems to me and others that maybe ellis isnt holding out for anything and aint interested in selling cos a) he doesnt need the money and is only interested in keeping his hobby going.

december, a few weeks without a word and michael neville releases a statement saying the takeover will go through before newyear.

1 week after that statement were told that "avil" has been setup to push the takeover through.

AVIL was set up 1st November 2005. The press statment was just a re-hash of something 8 weeks old, just so that there was some news to put out. Why would you do that? Because there is no real progress to report.

Nothing is happening. Due diligence is a smoke screen that can last as long as it useful to you. No bid has been made. Nothing is happening.

We are a big club with a squad capable of a top half finish. There aren't that many clubs of our size available for a takeover. If Portsmouth is worth £30m then I don't think £54m for Villa is too much.

It's not about the price, its about ellis selling.

To get into an argument about the correct valuation of something that was valued at £10m not so long ago, is playing into Ellis' hands and distracting from the fact that nothings happening and the window will be closed whilst we're waiting.

If the stock market hasnt closed dealing with Aston Villa shares down then there´s no buy out close...

The exchange will not suspend a share because a buyout is about to take place, they suspend shares either because of irregularities in trading or at the request of the company.

eg, manu shares carried on trading up until the moment the Glazer's unlisted the stock, way past the time they had reached the 75% required to achieve delisting.

I must admit, the longer this saga goes on, the less convinced i am that the comers have villa's best interests at heart.

As if Ellis had Villa's best interests at heart.

Why change someone who wants to create publicity for himself whilst milking a cow for someone what wants to make lots of money from building a ranch? Why not?

But this is all spin by ellis, no quotes and by a favourable journo .....

Agree totally, this has cuddlys fingerprints all over it..

"Ellis ... is keen to sell"......"and the Comers, who have made their millions out of property development, are investigating more thoroughly the land on offer as part of the deal"......"Brian and Luke Comer are not football fans and, although they have pledged to invest in the club, their primary interest is in the profits to be made from Villa's land assets"

Cuddly just just wants to sell, but these shady crooks can't be trusted.

There has been a distinct lack of quotes from the Comers too.

Sorry if I've missed it, but I don't think I've seen anything at all from the comer brothers themselves, are any direct quotes regarding the 20% of profits per annum malarkey.

Ellis has never had any intention of selling, it's all been part of his smokescreen to keep fans off his back since the AGM.

He's a cunning coniving old man, who by the look of it, has probably outsmarted the Comers. I can't believe they didn't have the intention to buy Villa, but whether they can raise the money or not is probably irrelevent at the end of the day, and if they can't raise the readies, it's just the excuse Ellis would like to say, "I tried but they hadn't the money" and we will be back in lah lah land again. Of course, due diligence may have uncovered some of Uncle Doug's practices to balance the books he's so proud of, and the Comers don't think £64m is value for money.

Bring on the box Ellis keeps talking about, it looks like the only way things will change!!

Can't argue with any of that really! Big sigh time :cry:

was I blind but wasn't a stock market released about AVIl ?

But AVIL was set up on the 1st November, it costs c£100 and so falls within small change as part of a multi million £ takeover.