Elton

13 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

are you that ignorant that you don't think he would've posted something immediately if he was delivering shopping to a relative in isolation or something? shot down the story straight away?

and yes i stand by those like you that say "oh it's not too bad that he was out and about" when our government has prohibited us from doing so and being the reason the lockdown will continue. if i'm being hysterical and pathetic, then so are all the politicians, NHS workers etc that are saying similar

by the way, "Not the end of the world"  is not a phrase ever to be used literally...it's said to indicate that a problem is not as bad as one fears, just to give you a basic english lesson. so you are quite right, LITERALLY, it wasn't the end of the world, so perhaps if you meant it to be taken literally i would consider your use of it in the future as the majority of folks take it as the popular saying that it is
 

Pathetic and hysterical again.

Why you need to attack me for a reasonable opinion is just weird. Stop being a troll and grow up.

28 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

it was actually in reference to how calm you and others are being with this...and how just because he plays for villa means that we grant him more leeway than when we as the general public slated all those out for picnics, bbqs etc. you literally said "it's not the end of the world that he was out" when actually that alone means that he has done wrong...the fact that there is almost certainly more the the story is something that is to be discussed if/when the facts come out. i'm amazed that so many seem to be OK with this at the moment

It’s literally not the end the world if he was out..

He may have had good reason for all we know. 

You literally said people like me are responsible for the lockdown extending just because I’m not ready to lynch him, which is hysterical and pathetic.

3 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

nothing to do with the fact that he plays for us. its the fact that he's in the public eye, looked up to by many, and we're supposed to be in lock down. i'm sick and tired of the 4 walls of my living room and want it to be over asap but people like jack are making this whole thing go on...hours after preaching to stay indoors.

i'm judging him based on the facts that he's out and about during lock down. end of. people like you saying "oh it's not the end of the world" are the reason why we're going to be confined to our homes for at least another month. STAY THE **** INDOORS!!!

So now your judging me too, lol!

I’m not sure what else to say really, quite unbelievable..

4 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

so you're absolutely fine with him being out and about with someone he (presumably) doesn't live with, hours after a post telling everyone to stay inside? that is the best case scenario...if it were not our player we'd slam them for that. i hate that we 'reserve judgement' just cause he plays for a football team we support

I hate it when we rush to judgment just because they play for a football team we support.

I will wait and see what the facts are before judging him. Putting it politely I think most of us wouldn’t want him in our quiz team so some poor judgement isn’t that surprising.

Just being outside and a bad driver isn’t the end of the world. Let’s hope that’s all it is. Although in the current climate I’m less bothered than I would have been a few weeks ago.

32 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think "A lot of scientists" can be replaced with "The odd scientist here and there" 

Yes, that’s often the case though isn’t it until the tide turns. Not saying whose right and wrong as I obviously have no idea. No one really knows the true picture until the mass antibody testing starts.

45 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Even at an early peak of 12th April, general life restrictions back to normal are unlikely anywhere near the end of April or early May, it’s just not realistic.
 

A leading scientist said the best line to this when some Americans were commenting about opening up over there quicker.....something along the lines that we don’t decide the timeline the virus decides the timeline or the virus doesn’t care about your timeline.

Don't understand your comment that it’s not sustainable and the long term costs could outweigh the benefits?

So letting people die so people can go out and be normal is acceptable to you?

How many deaths per day are acceptable to you that allows people back to normal life?  

Personally, I like my family and friends so my answer is none.  
 

Lockdown longer now to save lives, just plain selfish to do anything else because things will recover when we do reopen....but people want things now in the modern age....they need to just stop.

So you don’t understand my point. That’s fine. I also don’t remember stating my preference for liberty over deaths?

A lot of scientists believe the long term, the costs of economic disaster will be greater than the lives saved (or frankly probably just extended by a few weeks or months in many cases) due to suicide, alcoholism, murder, abuse etc.

We let many people die every year by not locking down free movement for influenza. I’m not stating my preference. I guess your preference is no one on the planet should leave the house every winter or are you happy to accept those avoidable deaths? How many is too many for you?

A lot of influenza deaths aren’t even recorded as such. We are yet to know how much worse Covid 19 is than a typical influenza season. So far in the UK overall deaths are down on the last 5 year average. I expect this will change but how much is to be determined and no one can answer this yet.

A lot of scientists/modellers are starting to question the lockdowns and if they are worthwhile. That’s the point I am raising. I don’t know the answer, I’m just discussing and speculating. I have close family in vulnerable groups Nick, I’m not looking to kill them off. Go and judge someone else.

Looking at the current modelling, the peak in the UK now expected around 12 April. Even if the peak extends for a few weeks before tailing off, it’s possible restrictions on general life will be relaxed some time in late April or possibly May. I just can’t see these restrictions going on for much more than a month as it’s not sustainable and the long term costs could outweigh the benefits.

Although even if we can go out again and shops and pubs etc reopens, it’s likely mass gatherings will be amongst the last on the list to get the all clear but it does still allow the possibility of a late May or early June restart, even if behind closed doors.

Much depends on how patient the PL will be. Once we’re in the peak the PL will feel more pressure to void the season. This is preferable to playing behind closed doors, which will disproportionately disadvantage us.

8 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

Probably still too many people just to die though.

We as a society still need to weigh up if the prize is worth the cost though and to do that we need more accurate data.

This article is worth a look.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

53 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

Herd immunity starts after about 60% of the population are immune. But that would kill a hell of a lot of people before we got to that stage. You’d have to have 80%+ of the population having it,  and 60% survive for that to happen, and 20% is a shit load of people to die (edit:  it would be about 1.4m people in the uk... staggering numbers)

I’m not an epidemiologist that’s just my understanding! 

That mortality rate is a bit off though. Even the worst case scenario in the UK with no social distancing etc was around 500 000.

We don’t know the true mortality rate yet but it’s highly likely to be well below 1%. Hopefully 0.0something.

Current projections seem to peak in UK about 5 April and around 5700 deaths here. Although without herd immunity, a 2nd/3rd wave etc remains likely.

As such I think policy will be to allow lockdown to end and then probably enforce it again as cases pick up again in autumn. PL has no real chance of planning anything. No one really cares now about the PL so they can void it without any negative press if that’s what they care about.

43 COVID19 deaths in UK today (or last 24 hours). About half of the figure of the day before. Lowest death rate for a week and  ‘lockdown’ wouldn’t have had an affect yet due to lag. Only 1 day but still encouraging.

Some reports that deaths in Italy classed as COVID19 when deceased had other serious health issues that may have been cause of death. 

Not playing down seriousness but maybe things will turn quicker than we have been led to expect (again hopeful speculation).

40 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Appreciate you're largely joking, but the Oxford study doesn't say anything of the sort, and there's no reason to think we're at any point other than the very beginning of a long period of lockdown or distancing which is completely incompatible with playing football.

Yes, from what I understand (probably not a lot) the reported headline does rely on modelling based on very speculative data.

I prefer to believe good news so I retain some optimism. As let’s face it months of lock down is soul destroying even if not personally affected by the virus.

However, I do think that some of the worse case scenarios will be way off. The cruise ship (which was a  virus incubator) is a good example here as the mortality rate wasn’t that high considering the age and health profile of the passengers. 

So far 20 000? deaths worldwide, of course this will go way up but will it be significantly worse than a bad flu season? I guess we’ll see. If it isn’t much worse the worldwide lockdowns will be heralded as a success.

I agree though, no chance of sport in the next few weeks. If cases dry up in late spring/early summer things could change. Obviously I’m only speculating. 

The Oxford University study that theorises that about 2/3rds of the UK population has already been infected is starting to gain more traction in the media.

If the antibody mass testing comes along quickly and supports this study I guess life and football may get back to normal quickly, if this turns out to similar to a normal bad flu season.

Obviously that would be extremely good news and if it sounds to good to be true, there is of course a heavy price to pay, which would be Liverpool winning the league..

29 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I disagree that Liverpool would be the biggest victims. 
it would be gutting for them. Don’t get me wrong. 
 

But the team they have, the players, the manager, the money. They’ll probably win the league next season or the season after. Not a guarantee of course. But it could happen quite easily. 
 

Forest or Leeds could be condemned to another 10 years of championship football if their finances aren’t great. 
 

Sheffield Utd are challenging for European football. It would be the first time in their history that they get that. 
 

Liverpool would of course be a victim. But the biggest? I doubt it. Like I said, the title is the least complicated part of it imo

Depends if you value the ultimate prize better than promotion, possibly to be relegated again or get a round or 2 into a European comp.

No one has achieved anything yet but Liverpool are by the far the closest. They are 99.9% there already and that is to win the biggest prize of the lot. To say they wouldn’t be the biggest victim is plain wrong in my view. Which is why void would be perfect.

47 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

What about Leicester? Or Sheffield United? or leeds or west brom or nottingham forest or coventry or Rotherham or portsmouth or Crewe or Swindon or Plymouth?

I get your point. Although nothing stopping UEFA inviting various clubs into comps based on current positions and leagues inviting teams to be promoted with no relegation. This has been widely discussed. There is no magical solution unless the leagues can restart with fans in stadiums within weeks, which isn’t possible 

Liverpool would clearly be the biggest victims and it wouldn’t be their fault, this time..

49 minutes ago, Zatman said:

If the option is 10 rounds and next season is reduced, they will take the full season 

I dont think a 38 game season is possible before Euro 2021 if they play these 10 rounds 

Absolutely. This season has been over at the pointy end for months and that is what brings in the biggest audience and sponsors.

Whatever happens will have plenty of negatives but finishing the season in a few weeks or months wouldn’t feel like it’s the same season, especially if behind closed doors. Fans could still congregate outside grounds too.

Best for everyone except Liverpool to void. Even for them it would feel like a hollow victory now.

Next season, whenever that is, they can have new rules in place for these situations, especially as next season is likely to be affected too.

Money will talk, unless this season concludes quickly they won’t be able to get TV income for next season. They have to void when we head towards peak by the time the next decision is due. They can then have a shortened season and try get full TV money for next season.

If they only get one season done in 2 years the PL will lose around a billion pounds or whatever the TV contract is worth plus sponsorships whilst still having to pay players.

Whilst this is now extremely low on everyone’s priority, at some stage, in a few months, there will be a clamour to try and get life more back to normal. 

3 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

Pretty confident PL are going to try and start back up behind closed doors. Maybe not April 4th, but I think 11th is a solid bet.

Absolutely no chance. Unfortunately the whole country will be in lock down, Italy style by early April and it will last for weeks. China had severe restrictions for 2 months before starting to relax very recently. This season is done.

3 hours ago, thunderball said:

According to an ITK the country is going into LOCKDOWN on Friday for two weeks, matters are very quickly spiralling into very new and dark territory and I think very quickly the football calendar will become very unimportant and an irrelevance. I fully expect the season to be scrubbed, it may effect next season too.

FWIW, he also told me Prince Philip has died and they are waiting to announce it.

 

Your ITK is clearly Boris or The Queen then..

We pretty much know from Italy etc more or less what is likely to happen and when.

No GCSE/A Levels to be sat this school year. UEFA etc are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think football leagues can restart and be completed by 30 June. Football and sport is done for months.

So 30 June is the deadline to complete the season, most likely for contractual reasons and to keep the integrity of the ‘season’. As such we can safely assume the season will be voided.

As far as I understand, the ‘flattening of the peak’ is designed to spread the cases over a longer period of time, probably many months rather than a quick uncontrolled spread that would overwhelm the health service, albeit end quicker. The resumed season would have to start by late May even playing 2 games per week. They won’t allow more than that. There is no chance this can happen.

Behind closed doors will also not be possible due to regulations about emergency services being in attendance and it will be the wrong message when the country may be in lock down by then and would still be an unnecessary gathering.

Training is unlikely to recommence prior to the deadline of 30 June passing. To do so would be off message with what the rest of the population is expected to do. Even now kids can’t train at their junior amateur clubs even with schools still open.

The PL will not allow the season to continue into the time frame allowed for next season, as this season they will get approximately 75% of the due TV money and next season, when it is possible to start, they will likely have to play a lot of midweek games to get in a full season and therefore full revenue. With players still being paid, the PL will want to lose as little income as possible.

And then there’s still Roy Hodgson in lockdown..

I guess we‘ll get a statement on Thursday saying that the league will have to recommence by 20 something of May or the season will not be completed.

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

Yep I think the league cup is for it next season regardless in order to fit in more midweek games. Maybe even the FA Cup 

Would be sensible although the EFL and FA will probably want to protect revenue for the smaller clubs. They could try to have less rounds involving PL clubs somehow or allow those that want to opt out to do so.

57 minutes ago, sidcow said:

That's what worries me that they might abandon 2020/2021 and instead play the rest of 2019/2020 instead. 

I hope the player contracts issue means that can't happen though. The squads would have to be different. 

The money aspect is I why I think they will have to abandon this season. If they play this season into next and end up with 1 completed season in almost 2 years, then they will lose billions in tv revenue and still have players to pay.

If they void this season they will get circa 75% of tv revenue and then they will try and fit in next season in full, even if that’s playing a lot of midweek games. That’s the only way I can see the PL maximising their income and I think we can all guess that will be their objective.

5 minutes ago, kurtsimonw said:

I don't know about you, but I personally wouldn't be in the right headspace. Not because I'm worried about my teammates health, nor my own health. But thinking I could have it and spread it would make me feel uneasy.

Shocking decision for any games to be played.

It’s not shocking at all. Listen to the CMO and CSA. Have you stopped going to the shops or getting a train or bus?

6 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

Player collapses that morning from a virus that we're being told is part of the apocalypse, all of the leagues above them are stopped because it's deemed too unsafe... And they should just man up and crack on like nothings happened and everything is perfectly fine? 

You think that his team mates really have a shit about a football match following that? Stupid by the club not to pull the game, heads will have gone 

How so? Why would their heads have gone because their team mate has CoVid 19? Seems there is a lot of ignorance about the risks to young, healthy, fit people on here. 

You may spend time with people with this virus, we all will. 

Furthermore, the chief scientist and medical officer don’t have a problem with sporting events.