NormandyVillan

If Southampton are really going to throw this match to avoid the Europa League, they should let us win 19-0 so that Swansea only need a point to overtake them on goal difference.

That goal boost would also give us an unexpected chance of finishing 11th above Everton, so it sounds like a fair deal all round.

To avoid anyone being disappointed, it should be pointed out that Hull can't be relegated on Saturday.

So... what are the chances of Villa being safe by next Saturday evening? Let's assume the bookies know what they are talking about and do a bit of maths...

The only matches that matter (as far as this question is concerned) are Southampton v Villa and Spurs v Hull. If Hull get more points than us on Saturday, we will go into the final day with relegation still a possibility (whatever the results in other games). If they don't, we are safe.

Based on the bookies' odds I've seen, the probabilities for those two games are (adjusting slightly to make the probabilities add up to 1):

Soton v Villa: Soton win: 0.54 Draw 0.26 Villa win 0.20

Spurs v Hull; Spurs win: 0.56 Draw 0.24 Hull win 0.20

So, by my reckoning, the probability of Villa being safe from relegation after those games would be:

Probability (Villa win) + Probability (Villa Draw + Hull Draw or Lose) + Probability (Villa Lose + Hull Lose)

= 0.20 + (0.26 x 0.80) + (0.54 x 0.56)

= 0.20 + 0.208 + 0.302

= 0.71

We therefore have (based on the bookies' odds) about a 71% chance of being safe by Saturday evening, and a 29% chance of not being safe (either then or at kick-off on the last day of the season).

Let's hope the more likely thing happens.

Brazil 2-1 Netherlands

Germany 2-1 Argentina

Brazil 2-0 Germany

Netherlands 0-1 Argentina

France v Germany 1-0

Brazil v Colombia 2-1

Argentina v Belgium 0-1

Netherlands v Costa Rica 1-1 (Costa Rica win on penalties)

Brazil v Chile 1-0

Colombia v Uruguay 2-1

Netherlands v Mexico 2-2 (Mexico win on pens)

Costa Rica v Greece 1-2

France v Nigeria 3-0

Germany v Algeria 2-0

Argentina v Switzerland 2-1

Belgium v USA 1-1 (USA win on pens)

Bosnia v Iran 1-2

Nigeria v Argentina 1-2

Iran to qualify on drawing of lots (can I have bonus points please if this actually happens?)

Ecuador v France 1-2

Honduras v Switzerland 1-1

Portugal v Ghana 2-2

USA v Germany 1-2

Algeria v Russia 2-1

S. Korea v Belgium 0-2

Bel v Rus 2-0

SKo v Alg 1-1

USA v Por 1-2

Aus v Spa 1-3

Net v Chi 1-1

Cam v Bra 0-3

Cro v Mex 1-1

Cos v Eng 2-2

Ita v Uru 0-1

Gre v IvC 0-2

Jap v Col 0-2

If Italy only beat Costa Rica by one goal, or 3-1, 4-2, etc., England will have to beat Costa Rica by two goals to have a chance.

Ideal score for England today is 2-0 to Italy. England would then just have to beat Costa Rica by one goal and hope Italy beat Uruguay.

The problem is that Italy would then just need to avoid losing by two goals against Uruguay to be certain of going through, but at least they would still have to take the game somewhat seriously. The same will apply for Italy if they only win by one goal today, so 2-0 is ideal for England.

Col v IvC 1-1

Eng v Uru 3-0

Jap v Gre 1-2

Ita v Cos 2-1

Swi v Fra 0-2

Hon v Ecu 0-2

Arg v Ira 4-0

Ger v Gha 3-1

Nig v Bos 1-2

Ger v Por 2-2

Ira v Nig 1-2

Gha v USA 2-1

Bel v Alg 2-0

Bra v Mex 2-1

Rus v Kor 3-1

Aus v Ned 1-4

Spa v Chi 2-1

Cam v Cro 0-2

Bra v Cro 3-0

Mex v Cam 2-1

Spa v Ned 2-0

Chi v Aus 2-0

Col v Gre 2-0

Uru v Cos 2-1

Eng v Ita 1-1

IvC v Jap 2-0

Swi v Ecu 0-1

Fra v Hon 4-1

Arg v Bos 3-1

In terms of League places, and therefore prize money, Villa have more to play for today than any other club.

A win + the right results in other matches could put us 12th. The opposite could put us 17th. Barring astronomically unlikely results like Hull beating Everton 12-0, no other team has a potential swing of 5 places between winning and losing.

At £1.2 million per place, there could be as much as £6 million riding on this match.

I just had a look at the bookies' odds for this. According to them, City scoring 7 goals or more is more likely than a Villa win, and City scoring 8 goals or more is almost as likely.

They really think we're shit, don't they?

If you want a very good chance of having at least something to be cheerful about, just bet on a Fulham win.

That way you'll probably either win some money or see Villa safe this weekend. And if Villa defy the odds and actually beat the mighty Hull while Fulham are winning at Stoke, you could even get both.

I said "probably"... surprise results for Norwich and/or Cardiff could still leave you out of pocket and depressed.

For those wanting a fun bet on this weekend's results, why not go for:

Villa home win v Hull

Fulham away win at Stoke

Sunderland away win at Man Utd

Arsenal home win v WBA

Norwich away win at Chelsea

If all those results come in, you get:

* Huge winnings.

* Safety for Villa

* Instead of worrying about our inevitable thrashing at Man City next Wednesday, a chance to sit back and enjoy West Brom's relegation battle at Sunderland instead.

Alternatively, if all that seems too unlikely, you could just go for:

Villa home win v Hull

Fulham away win at Stoke

Arsenal home win v WBA

With this you get:

* Much smaller winnings, but a much better chance of it actually happening

* Villa safe

* West Brom still in trouble on the last day if they lose at Sunderland

According to Mourinho, this is a "very difficult" match for Chelsea. Three points would be "fabulous", one point would be "not a bad result".

So I take it we can expect to see Villa laying siege to the Chelsea goal as they desperately try to hang on for a draw.

_{Another little fact;}

_{Counting games in all compétitions, our record number of home defeats in a season was until recently 9. That record was equalled in 2011-12 under McLeish, equalled again in 2012-13 under Lambert, and then broken last week when we suffered our 10th home defeat of the season. And that record has been set after only 16 games, with another 6 left to play...}

 

Spot on. Villa will probably finish similar to last year, in that the home and road records will be almost identical come the end of the season.

Which would be absolutely awful.

Last year we won 5 games at home. Something we've only done once before in 1890 and its only been worse under McLeish.

Last year we lost 9 games at home which is joint worst in the clubs history with it only happening in 66/67 season.

Our home form over the last few years has been the worst home form in the history of the club.

 

It's been by far the worst in our history

Prior to McLeish, our worst ever home record was in 1966-67 when we won 7, drew 5 and lost 9. Converted to 3 points to a game, that would have been 1.24 points per game.

2011-12 under McLeish was our worst ever season at home. 19 points in 19 games = 1.00 points per game. 

2012-13 was our second worst. 20 points in 19 games = 1.05 points per game.

So far this season we have 11 points from 13 games. So we need 8 points from the last 6 games to avoid setting a new low (again), 9 points to avoid being the equal worst ever, and by my calculations we need a massive 13 points to avoid completing a trio of the 3 worst home seasons in the club's history.

We have also won only 9 of our last 45 home games. So we have won 9 times and failed to win 36 times in that period. I don't know when our previous worst sequence of 45 games was, but I would bet that it probably still included about twice as many wins as the last 45.

In other words, the fans at Villa Park have never had it (anything like) as bad as this.

Steve Mcmahon.

 

Great in his all to brief time at the club

That would be my nomination as well. The ultimate box-to-box midfielder who seemed like he could do everything; tackle, pass, run, shoot and turn the tide of a game all on his own.

I guess he gets forgotten about because he only played for us for a couple of seasons in the eighties in which the club achieved nothing of note, and he later became better known as a Liverpool player. But I don't think I've ever seen a better all-round player in the Villa midfield, and that includes the legends of the Saunders era. 

So in other words, to put it properly:

Weekends footnall 18/19 Jan

Saturday Permiership Sunderland v Southmapton 12:45 BT Sport Arsenal v Fulham Palace v Stoke Man City v Cardiff Norwich v Hull Wets Ham v Newcastle MOTD 10.20 Championhips Leeds v Leicester 12:15 Sky Barnsley v Backpool Birmingham v Yeovil Bournemouth v Watford Burnley v Sheffield Wendesday Derby v Brighton Doncaster v Wigan Middlesbro v Charlton Millwall v Ipswich Forest v Blackbun QPR v Huddlesfried Reading v Bolton FLS 11.40 Sudnay Premiership Swansea v Spurs 1.30 Sky Cheslea v Man Utd 4pm Sky MOTD2 10.25

There was no UEFA Cup quarter final in Moscow. It was a third round (round of 32) match.

O'Neill did not resign the following August (August 2009). He resigned in August 2010. The whole 2009-2010 season has been edited out of the narrative.

"Lambert, following a serious injury from LiborKozak , decided to assault groped Miroslav Klose"

 

Lambert IN. To Court and then Prison  

 

"He's got the experience I'm looking for, plus he's a proper man," said Lambert after the surprise assault.