VillaAsh

South West? No way is Southampton and Portsmouth in the South West. Londoner?

Interesting article from David Nicholson, a contributor to Forbes magazine.

I cover media, technology and business and how they intersect

Speaking as a Scot who lives in England, I have divided loyalties in this debate.

But speaking as an economic commentator, I am amazed at the naivety and short sightedness of the Scottish National Party (SNP). Here’s 5 reasons why.

1 Currency confusion

Not long ago (in 1999), SNP leader Alex Salmond described the pound as a ‘millstone around Scotland’s neck’ and derided the currency in 2009. Today he is desperate to keep it, realising that an independent currency would be so volatile and problematic that it would dissuade investors, reduce trade with the rest of the world and threaten to turn Scotland into an economic backwater.

The European Union has effectively ruled out Scotland joining the euro (or even the EU) for many years, leaving Salmond exposed and blustering.

2 Delusions of oil grandeur

The SNP’s main economic platform is that Scotland should own the revenue from North Sea oil and gas, making it a petro-dollar paradise equivalent to Norway. Although they have similar populations (5.05 million for Norway, 5.3 million for Scotland), the hydrocarbon revenues are massively different. Norway’s government gathered $40 billion in 2013 (according to the BBC) while the UK made $10.8 billion (according to the Financial Times), a fall of 40 per cent from 2012. Current predictions? Further falls, to £3.3 billion ($5.5 billion) in 2016/17, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

There’s no amount of careful stewardship that is going to magic $5.5 billion into $40 billion, when many of the North Sea rigs are at the end of their life and production levels are falling.

3 Financial mismanagement

Scotland’s banks have become a byword for chaos and catastrophic losses, after the hubris of the 1990s turned into the near-collapse of the mid-2000s with massive rescue packages needed for Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds (both of them based in Edinburgh). The SNP announced in November 2013 that, under future independence arrangements, the Bank of England ‘would become a lender of the last resort’ following any future crises.

This would mean taxpayers in the rest of the UK bailing out Scottish banks, despite them being in an ‘independent’ country. The evident nonsense of this position seems to be lost on the Scottish National Party.

As one website remarked, Alex Salmond believes he still has the right to use gym equipment, despite giving up his membership. ‘I have been a member for many, many years, so why they think everything in the club is for the exclusive use of the remaining members is completely beyond me,’ the website imagined him wondering.

4 Loss of credibility

The UK has sunk an awful long way since the height of empire in the 19th century, but it remains the world’s sixth-largest economy and the second-largest in Europe behind Germany. This confers all kinds of useful benefits, including low interest rates, a permanent seat at the UN Security Council, leadership in NATO, a major role at G20 conferences and in the WTO, among many others.

For decades, even centuries, Scots have been at the heart of this economic presence, as Chancellors of the Exchequer (Gordon Brown, Alastair Darling under Labour, Norman Lamont under the Tories) or as Prime Minister (Brown again, Tony Blair – even David Cameron has Scottish roots). They also helped to build and maintain the Empire.

So instead of a seat at this high global table, Scotland seeks to become… what? The new Slovakia (population 5.4 million, average income $24,000)? It’s an instructive parallel. Slovakia became independent of the Czech Republic in 1993 because the Czechs wanted rid of their poorer partner under the forced communist marriage of Czechoslovakia. The SNP, by contrast, is under the illusion that Scotland would emerge a wealthier nation than it is today by ditching its richer partner. The logic is perverse.

At least Slovakia is part of the European Union, with all the benefits that brings. An independent Scotland could not guarantee that its citizens would be able to live and work in the rest of the UK.

5 Lack of natural resources

Once the oil runs out, what does Scotland have that will sustain its fabulously wealthy future? It has whisky, but even with this contribution of £3 billion ($4.8 billion) across the economy, as estimated by the Scotch Whisky Association, it’s small beer. The ability to attract major industries – manufacturing, IT, finance – to the country would be diminished by independence, for all the reasons listed above.

The insurer Standard Life has already warned that it could relocate its headquarters in the event of a Yes vote for independence, endangering 5,000 Scottish jobs. Many more companies are doubtless thinking along the same lines.

I once asked a politician who represented the Western Isles of Scotland why people living in these remote and hostile places should receive subsidies. ‘To keep a diversity of culture,’ he replied. You could say the same of Scotland as a whole. The rest of the UK is content to subsidise this rich and ancient culture. But take away that subsidy and there would likely be massive depopulation. ‘Go to Scotland and there’s nobody there,’ as the country’s best-known comic Billy Connolly succinctly put it.

All these arguments pale into nothing for nationalists, whose blood is up and who scent a kind of revenge on the English for centuries of (as they see it) domination and exploitation. They’re determined to cut off their nose to spite their face.

* * * * *

As a Scot, a yes vote at independence would feel like my parents divorcing. As an economist, it would feel like a regressive, small-minded, self-inflicted act of exile from the 21st century.

Apologies if bin dunne....

Obelisks will be hard to get past.

Anyone who is keen to pop her brown cherry, I have 5 words for you.

Do it in the bath.

My name is Ashley (the male version), my girlfriend is called Jessica and my Mum is Lisa. We were all born when our names were dominant too. Bloody American influence!

new low?

 

Sod it, the thread has a spoiler warning in its title.

 

Agreed. Any clearing in the woods coming in here before watching the episode has a psychotic disorder

 

Some guy I know had his life ruined when some moron put 'HANK DIES' as their facebook status before he got around to watching the episode.

Just finished watching the 5th and final season of The Wire. Started watching it from the beginning about 2 months ago (after seeing some very good reviews on here) and got totally hooked. Up there with Breaking Bad as one of the best TV series I have ever watched.

I'm sad it's all over really....

I did a FdSc course in Outdoor Education when I was 23, it was good, there was a decent mix of ages.

I would definitely look into grants though, as a mature student you are (or were) entitled to maintenance and tuition fee grants.

Bias poll. This is hardly a neutral place to have it...

Please lock this thread. Please.

Seconded.

Seconded....again.

Bit of a long shot...but...anyone here watching it in Gibraltar?

Milners passing has been a bit off today.

Trevor Francis desperately needs an 'off' switch.

sidwell you muppet

Not a foul. Ref and Co-Commentator getting it wrong again.

Shocking comment from the co-commentator when Nani got sent off: "I think at most it should ave been a yellow."

It was a blatent, very dangerous two footed tackle...he had both feet clean off the ground for christs sake!

Why is Petrov always the victim of these shocking tackles?

13 pages on wiping your arse. VT may have reached a new low...

Are you three serious? I may have missed the sarcasm but...you would seriously give up a place in the CL for the mickey mouse cup?

I too would love for us to grab some silverware this season, but not at the expense of the massive step forward that gaining Champions League football would give us!

these were better with the "wait til the end of the season and see" option

Kinda defeats the object though doesn't it?

In order to get a balanced view, you need black or white options...with no room for fence-sitters.

Anyone in the mood for a hilarious arse comment?

That's the thing, Villa's system doesn't expose their defenders much. If Dunne was at City now, I'm guessing he might be as bad as he was there last season.

In general though, they seem really concerned about this match (as they should be) and they think they will struggle against our attacking style.

Hard to see us winning this one with the injuries we have.

Villa have an excellent goalkeeper, very strong defence, decent midfield and a penetrative attack. They love to run men out wide and get crosses in the box, precisely the kind of thing we are not very good at dealing with.

Aerially they will slaughter us, defensively they are superior and their goalkeeper is a monster compared to what we have. Their team is stronger than ours, likely to work harder than ours and their tactics are very well suited towards nullifying our own.

I want a win of course, but I think we might have to settle for a draw and be grateful.

The only way we have a chance in this game is if our defensive players are switched on, our goalkeeper plays well and our entire team works extremely hard and puts the effort in. Given their recent effort I'm not holding out any hope.

Pretty much all of them agree that they need Fabregas back for this game.

Fingers crossed he won't make it...but if he did I think even he would struggle against our defense/midfield right now.

*edit* Oh dear, I see the same arse quote was posted above...may take time to read the thread first next time....

This day could turn out to be a pivotal moment in the history of AVFC. Maybe I am getting carried away, but I can't help but feel great things are in store.

Thanks General and thanks Randy for this day and one hell of a bright future.

Shocking to think we haven't beaten them at their place in my lifetime....and I'm 25.

(Probably quite a few others have missed out)

- Free travel to two away games in the last two years

- Restoration of the Holte Pub

- Putting a charity on the shirt instead of a sponsor

...and more.