99whited

Quote:

we are going to be saved, not by being good enough ourselves, but by at least three teams being worse than us.

Zackly. Good aint it?

Yeah, it's awful I know. However, as several people have put before, I'd like to view this season as a transition period. We'll survive intact, hopefully Ellis and possibly DOL will be out by the start of next season, we'll have new owners who will hopefully put some money into the club and we can start anew.

Sorry, daydreaming again here.

And the fact that we have taken 30 from 26 means our average is 1.15 per game.

If we continued in that vein then we'd end up with around 44 points at the end. Now can you see why people think it will be close?.

Yes, I'll happily agree with that. I honestly believe that we'll end up with about 44 points, but if you apply the same logic to the teams beneath us...

Villa 30 points from 26, ratio of 1.15 points per game, final total 44/45 points

Middlesborough 28 points from 25, ratio of 1.12 points per game, final total 42/43 points

West Brom 26 points from 26, ratio of 1 point per game, final total 38 points

Small Heath 20 points from 25, ratio of 0.8 points per game, final total 30/31 points

Portsmouth 18 points from 26, ratio of 0.69 points per game, final total 26/27 points

Sunderland 10 points from 25, ratio of 0.4 points per game, final total 15/16 points.

The point I was trying to make was that, yes, we may only scrape past 40 points, but there are going to be a lot of teams below us that do even worse. Simply put, we are going to be saved, not by being good enough ourselves, but by at least three teams being worse than us.

I can't seriously believe that people really think we have a good chance of being relegated.

If you presume that 40 points is safety (I know its not always but it normally is) we need 10 points from our final 12 games - that's 10/36. Looking at the games we have, I can't see anyway we won't get at least two wins and a half-dozen draws before the end of the season.

Compare that now to Small Heath, who need 20 points from a possible 39 (very tough to do looking at their remaining games), Sunderland who are essentially down already and Portsmouth who have even more to do than Small Heath, along with West Brom and Middlesbrough who are still in a worse situation than us, I just can't see anyway we can really get relegated.

But, I'm not saying it's impossible.

Saw them at the Reading Festival this year - they are an absolutely fantastic live band. Dave Grohl has to be one of the best frontmen I have ever seen.

Saw them at the Reading Festival this year - they are an absolutely fantastic live band. Dave Grohl has to be one of the best frontmen I have ever seen.