Do bigger pitches lead to late goals?

[KjParton]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22646131

 

Just watched an interesting video in which Pat Nevin discusses (albeit briefly) about the different dimensions of pitches in the premier league and how this may have an influence on the home & away sides.

 

The most interesting thing is that we (Aston Villa) have the largest pitch in square yards in the premier league (8602) compared to a team like Stoke who's pitch is 7654 sq yards. He then demonstrates on the video how large that area is - I was shocked! Its a huge area! 

 

His question is do these bigger pitches lead to late goals. Well in our case it does lead to late goals - but for the opposition most of the time! Is there a reason Paul Lambert and the Villa team have decided to keep the dimensions big? What could that reason be?

 

Mods: I didn't know whether this was 'other football' or 'villatalk' so please move if need be. 

Edited September 12, 2013 by KjParton

[Isa]

I'm a bit surprised we haven't reduced the size of the pitch given how narrow we play under Lambert. Didn't realise ours was that big either.

[BOF]

By virtue of having a larger area to run around on and tiring players out that bit more than it normally would, yes it's inevitable that over a considerable period of time the total GPG will be slightly more on a larger pitch.  As you say, that doesn't necessarily mean it'll benefit your team.  But the fans will see more goals

 

We were always brought up listening to pundits say how the (vast) Wembley pitch would sort the men from the boys come cup final time.

[NeilS]

It might explain why the top teams have such good records here! (Man Utd/Arsenal etc). Lets look at it, the pitch is big, nicely kept which allows for slick passing. The best teams tend to see the lions share of the possesion, and the bigger pitch will ultimately leave bigger spaces for them to exploit. This however flies in the face of us struggling to break down lesser teams at home; even during our better years we would be drawing too many games because of our inability to break down a well organised defence.

 

I think that rather than reduce the pitch size, we just need to make sure we become better at retaining the ball and exploiting the spaces ourselves. Hopefully Lambert is moving us toward that goal.

[LondonLax]

A bigger pitch would help better teams I would have thought. 

 

Stoke's small pitch congests play and doesn't allow teams to play their natural game. On the flip side, Man U seem to love playing at Villa Park and their fans consider it a second home ground.  

[Folski]

A bigger pitch would help better teams I would have thought. 

 

Stoke's small pitch congests play and doesn't allow teams to play their natural game. On the flip side, Man U seem to love playing at Villa Park and their fans consider it a second home ground.  

 

Considered

[AntrimBlack]

As this is our home pitch, you would think that the team would be trained to exploit its' size. Did they not replicate this on the training pitch, or did that just apply to the surface and not the size. Obviously it depends on the ability of the players, but you would think it would give us some advantage.

[Cliffy Biro]

Surely it would be for both sides then? There are loads of potential factors for late goals but i wouldnt blame pitch dimensions tbh.

[turnbull]

Reminds of playing on huge pitches back in my old Sunday football days. Jesus, they were a shock!! Usually got cramp just before half time!

[NormandyVillan]

By virtue of having a larger area to run around on and tiring players out that bit more than it normally would, yes it's inevitable that over a considerable period of time the total GPG will be slightly more on a larger pitch.

This sounds like a plausible theory, but it seems to be totally contradicted by the facts (at least as far as Villa are concerned).

 

The last time there were more goals scored in Villa’s home matches than in their away matches was in 2000-01. Since then, over the past 12 seasons we’ve seen:

 

 

Total goals scored (by both teams) in Villa’s League matches, home and away:

 

2001-02: H 39 A 54

2002-03: H 39 A 50

2003-04: H 43 A 49

2004-05: H 43 A 54

2005-06: H 40 A 57

2006-07: H 34 A 50

2007-08: H 56 A 66

2008-09: H 48 A 54

2009-10: H 45 A 46

2010-11: H 45 A 62

2011-12: H 45 A 45

2012-13: H 51 A 65

 

So in the past 12 seasons, Villa’s home matches have produced fewer goals than their away matches 11 times out of 12, the only exception being 2011-12 in which the total was the same (45) for home matches as for away matches (that season being a brief, McLeish-inspired “golden age” of gritty 0-0 draws at Fulham, Stoke, etc.).

 

In all, there have been 528 goals scored in League matches at Villa Park over this period, and 652 in Villa’s away matches. That’s 23.5 % more goals scored in our away matches over a 12-year period. The pattern seems to be the same whether we are having a relatively good season (scoring more goals than we are conceding), or a poor one like last season.

 

 

This leads me to ask to one or two questions:

 

* Is it actually true that bigger pitches are correlated to a higher number of goals per game, or is the opposite in fact the case?

 

* If the opposite is the case, why is this?

 

* If it is actually true that bigger pitches generally lead to more goals (or if in fact there is no correlation), why do our home matches so consistently produce fewer goal than our away matches? Is there some other factor at work?

[BG_Villa_Fan]

Pretty sure Villa's fewer home than away goals is an anomaly. Check other teams with really big pitches and the trend is exactly the opposite - Barcelona, Man U, Real Madrid. Of course really strong teams ( who normally have bigger pitches ) are more likely to give someone a thumping at home than away.

[mockingbird_franklin]

 

By virtue of having a larger area to run around on and tiring players out that bit more than it normally would, yes it's inevitable that over a considerable period of time the total GPG will be slightly more on a larger pitch.

This sounds like a plausible theory, but it seems to be totally contradicted by the facts (at least as far as Villa are concerned).

 

The last time there were more goals scored in Villa’s home matches than in their away matches was in 2000-01. Since then, over the past 12 seasons we’ve seen:

 

 

Total goals scored (by both teams) in Villa’s League matches, home and away:

 

2001-02: H 39 A 54

2002-03: H 39 A 50

2003-04: H 43 A 49

2004-05: H 43 A 54

2005-06: H 40 A 57

2006-07: H 34 A 50

2007-08: H 56 A 66

2008-09: H 48 A 54

2009-10: H 45 A 46

2010-11: H 45 A 62

2011-12: H 45 A 45

2012-13: H 51 A 65

 

So in the past 12 seasons, Villa’s home matches have produced fewer goals than their away matches 11 times out of 12, the only exception being 2011-12 in which the total was the same (45) for home matches as for away matches (that season being a brief, McLeish-inspired “golden age” of gritty 0-0 draws at Fulham, Stoke, etc.).

 

In all, there have been 528 goals scored in League matches at Villa Park over this period, and 652 in Villa’s away matches. That’s 23.5 % more goals scored in our away matches over a 12-year period. The pattern seems to be the same whether we are having a relatively good season (scoring more goals than we are conceding), or a poor one like last season.

 

 

This leads me to ask to one or two questions:

 

* Is it actually true that bigger pitches are correlated to a higher number of goals per game, or is the opposite in fact the case?

 

* If the opposite is the case, why is this?

 

* If it is actually true that bigger pitches generally lead to more goals (or if in fact there is no correlation), why do our home matches so consistently produce fewer goal than our away matches? Is there some other factor at work?

 

Nice work,  but the point wasn't about bigger pitches = more goals, but bigger pitches = more late goals

[Biskitt]

Really interesting thought. Have to say, I do really ike Pat Nevin as a pundit, he's always got some interesting observations that other people might not have considered

[BOF]

By virtue of having a larger area to run around on and tiring players out that bit more than it normally would, yes it's inevitable that over a considerable period of time the total GPG will be slightly more on a larger pitch.

This sounds like a plausible theory, but it seems to be totally contradicted by the facts (at least as far as Villa are concerned).

 

The last time there were more goals scored in Villa’s home matches than in their away matches was in 2000-01. Since then, over the past 12 seasons we’ve seen:

 

 

Total goals scored (by both teams) in Villa’s League matches, home and away:

 

2001-02: H 39 A 54

2002-03: H 39 A 50

2003-04: H 43 A 49

2004-05: H 43 A 54

2005-06: H 40 A 57

2006-07: H 34 A 50

2007-08: H 56 A 66

2008-09: H 48 A 54

2009-10: H 45 A 46

2010-11: H 45 A 62

2011-12: H 45 A 45

2012-13: H 51 A 65

 

So in the past 12 seasons, Villa’s home matches have produced fewer goals than their away matches 11 times out of 12, the only exception being 2011-12 in which the total was the same (45) for home matches as for away matches (that season being a brief, McLeish-inspired “golden age” of gritty 0-0 draws at Fulham, Stoke, etc.).

 

In all, there have been 528 goals scored in League matches at Villa Park over this period, and 652 in Villa’s away matches. That’s 23.5 % more goals scored in our away matches over a 12-year period. The pattern seems to be the same whether we are having a relatively good season (scoring more goals than we are conceding), or a poor one like last season.

 

 

This leads me to ask to one or two questions:

 

* Is it actually true that bigger pitches are correlated to a higher number of goals per game, or is the opposite in fact the case?

 

* If the opposite is the case, why is this?

 

* If it is actually true that bigger pitches generally lead to more goals (or if in fact there is no correlation), why do our home matches so consistently produce fewer goal than our away matches? Is there some other factor at work?

Other factors are at work. The theory is correct if all things are equal. But not all things are equal in your study. Primarily our counter-attacking style of play over the past years is known to be considerably more effective away from home where the home team comes at you and leaves more space. It's why our home form is poor. Our team hasn't been set up for it. If we could play 50% of this season's home matches on one size then increase or decrease it for the other 50%, even that wouldn't be a properly objective test because team form can come into it too. So the theory will remain that because it can't truly be tested in 'laboratory' conditions as it were. Tireder players will make more mistakes. When that's the only variable then goals will happen. But if you're trying to prove it in real life you'll have a hard time.

[Danwichmann]

 

The most interesting thing is that we (Aston Villa) have the largest pitch in square yards in the premier league (8602) compared to a team like Stoke who's pitch is 7654 sq yards. 

 

Seeing as we're the new Stoke I expect our pitch to be changed to 7654 sq yards for our next home game. 

[villa-revolution]

How often do we score late goals or late winners at Villa Park?

[Brumerican]

Night games are more likely to produce late goals.

[the_eristic]

The more important concern is the type of pitch we need to cut down on early goals.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Next up: Do thinner 18 yard lines lead to the possible discovery of leprechauns?

Edited September 14, 2013 by CarewsEyebrowDesigner