how to beat the bookmaker

[Folski]

My €100 double on Faugheen & Silvinianco returned a sweet €525.

[CVByrne]

A bit of christmas money e/w on Emperor's Choice in the Welsh National with a v small saver on Mountainous in case he repeats last year's effort.

 

 

I tipped him up on my site too. What a win. Amazing stuff. 

[snowychap]

 

A bit of christmas money e/w on Emperor's Choice in the Welsh National with a v small saver on Mountainous in case he repeats last year's effort.

 

 

I tipped him up on my site too. What a win. Amazing stuff. 

 

Yes, I saw that - I had already backed him, though, honest (took 14s at about half 9)!

It was my only winner of these last two days, unfortunately.

[CVByrne]

Yeah I had a nightmare of it until Emperors Choice won, then 10 mins later I have a 25/1 winner of the Paddy Power at Leopardstown. Unreal 10 mins I'll never forget

[snowychap]

Very nice indeed.

[bcarpet]

Anyone got any tips for the racing at cheltenham today? Im doing my usual new year tradition by braving the cold and going but i still know nothing about horse racing!

[CVByrne]

Did you check my Blog? I tipped up Splash of Ginge @ 6/1 

[snowychap]

I joined you on Fairy Rath. Cracking ride he was given.

[CVByrne]

Aye and Unioniste ran away with the last. 3/4 today and +£295  

 

Been a stunning time since the dark day of the 26th Dec. Love the handicaps. 

 

Also loved Blue Buttons win, we really didn't expect her to win on that ground. So when we get some nicer ground we can step her up in trip to 3 miles. I'd love harry to send her for a pertemps qualifier so we can go to Cheltenham. 

[CVByrne]

Did up a mid season report on my sites betting blog. Really shows how fruitless betting on shorter priced horses is. But my strike rate on double figure odds horses has been real eye opener. 7 from 40

 

http://jumpsadviser.com/mid-term-stats-lessons/

It’s been an interesting a profitable time for my betting blog. With plenty of highs and lows along the way. But one of the most important things in this game is to learn from your mistakes, and adjust how you bet and what you bet on to improve.

 

Let’s kick things off with the good. £1603 profit for the season so far, or to put it in pts based on my average stake of £20 it’s +80pts.

This is put in context as yet again October was a loss maker (-£125, -6.25pts), and almost all the profit for the month was confined to one win, Goodwood Mirage (+£480). The reason? Short priced horses just don’t pay.

 

For the season so far, all bets on horses of 4/1 or less has resulted in £530 loss. At least it’s been a break even game since November, as that loss was entirely in October. But it does show that backing short priced horses should be rarer event, not common ones.

 

So if I had exclusively backed horses at odds of greater than 4/1 the profit would be £2133 or +106.6pts 

But it’s the double figure horses who’ve really shown me the merits of the value seeker. I’ve had 40 bets on horses of odds grater than 10/1. Seven of those have won, yielding a £1238 profit, or +62pts. That was a return from £880 staked, or 44pts.

 

I’ve been told from many a wise punter how to make the game really pay is to go proper stakes on the horses you see the best value in. If he is 33/1 or 20/1 it doesn’t mean you should lower your stakes. As the evidence is showing last season and again this season had I stuck with a one or two stake level game it would have increased overall profits instead of higher stakes on lower odds, lower stakes on higher odds.

 

So the changes I’m going to make to my betting, significantly reduce the number of lower odds horses I bet on. Try keep stakes consistent regardless of odds, no stake altering based on odds. While as my mates keep asking me, I’ll also tweet when I’ve updated my betting blog.

Edited January 5, 2015 by CVByrne

[CVByrne]

If you ever want to see the greatest performance by a racehorse ever. 

 

 

His track record still stands. He managed to cover the first 6f of a 12f race faster than the track record over that trip at Ascot. 

[leviramsey]

I've been on a decent run with NHL tipping of late, so why not?

(I bet elsewhere, but I'll use odds for this from bet365)

[all include OT and shootout]

Detroit +0: risk 1.2 units @ 1.45 [i handicap this one at about 85% to win]

Tampa Bay +1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 1.47 [85%]

Colorado +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.38 [93%]

Colorado +0: risk 1.4 units @ 2.15 [75%]

St. Louis +0: risk 1 unit @ 1.33 [85%]

(unit being 1% of bankroll)

Edited January 13, 2015 by leviramsey

[leviramsey]

I've been on a decent run with NHL tipping of late, so why not?

(I bet elsewhere, but I'll use odds for this from bet365)

[all include OT and shootout]

Detroit +0: risk 1.2 units @ 1.45 [i handicap this one at about 85% to win] DETROIT WINS 3-1; WIN 0.54 units

Tampa Bay +1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 1.47 [85%] TAMPA BAY LOSES 4-3; WIN 0.56 units

Colorado +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.38 [93%] COLORADO LOSES 3-2 (after shootout); WIN 0.68 units

Colorado +0: risk 1.4 units @ 2.15 [75%] LOSE 1.4 units

St. Louis +0: risk 1 unit @ 1.33 [85%] ST. LOUIS WINS 4-2; WIN 0.33 units

(unit being 1% of bankroll)

4-1, +0.71 units (+10.75% of risk)

[leviramsey]

Montreal -1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 3.30 [50%]

Montreal +0: risk 2 units @ 1.80 [75%]

Washington -1.5: risk 1.4 units @ 2.60 [50%]

[KJT123]

If anyone wants a bet on the golf this week, go check out my new website which has previews for this week's tournaments. 

 

http://www.weeklygolfselections.com

Edited January 14, 2015 by KJT123

[snowychap]

If anyone wants a bet on the golf this week, go check out my new website which has previews for this week's tournaments. 

 

http://www.weeklygolfselections.com

Hatton should be very much one to follow this year if he builds on his rookie season.

Backed him a few times e/w and nearly won on a couple of occasions (was 150s in the Scottish Open and was 80s at the final tournament in Dubai).

 

I had a 'free' tenner on Spieth to win a major this year at 8s back in October (now down to 4s).

[leviramsey]

Montreal -1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 3.30 [50%] MONTREAL WINS 3-2; LOSE 1.2 units

Montreal +0: risk 2 units @ 1.80 [75%] MONTREAL WINS 3-2; WIN 1.6 units

Washington -1.5: risk 1.4 units @ 2.60 [50%] WASHINGTON WINS 1-0; LOSE 1.4 units

1-2, -1.00 units (-21.74%)

Cume: 5-3, -0.29 units (-2.59%)

[leviramsey]

NY Rangers +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.37

NY Rangers +0: risk 1.2 units @ 2.15

Montreal +1.5: risk 1.6 units @ 1.33

Colorado +1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 1.40

Calgary +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.31

Calgary +0: risk 1.2 units @ 1.90

[leviramsey]

NY Rangers +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.37 RANGERS LOSE 3-0; LOSE 1.8 units

NY Rangers +0: risk 1.2 units @ 2.15 RANGERS LOSE 3-0; LOSE 1.2 units

Montreal +1.5: risk 1.6 units @ 1.33 MONTREAL LOSES 4-1; LOSE 1.6 units

Colorado +1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 1.40 COLORADO WINS 4-2; WIN 0.48 units

Calgary +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.31 CALGARY WINS 4-1; WIN 0.55 units

Calgary +0: risk 1.2 units @ 1.90 CALGARY WINS 4-1; WIN 1.08 units

3-3, -2.49 units (-28.30%)

Cume: 8-6, -2.78 units (-13.90%)

[Folski]

 

NY Rangers +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.37 RANGERS LOSE 3-0; LOSE 1.8 units

NY Rangers +0: risk 1.2 units @ 2.15 RANGERS LOSE 3-0; LOSE 1.2 units

Montreal +1.5: risk 1.6 units @ 1.33 MONTREAL LOSES 4-1; LOSE 1.6 units

Colorado +1.5: risk 1.2 units @ 1.40 COLORADO WINS 4-2; WIN 0.48 units

Calgary +1.5: risk 1.8 units @ 1.31 CALGARY WINS 4-1; WIN 0.55 units

Calgary +0: risk 1.2 units @ 1.90 CALGARY WINS 4-1; WIN 1.08 units

3-3, -2.49 units (-28.30%)

Cume: 8-6, -2.78 units (-13.90%)

 

 

Don't know if you bet on NBA Levi, but if you do I find backing the over in games featuring both of the following is pretty consistent, GSW, Rockets, Mavericks, Clippers, OKC.