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villaguy

how to beat the bookmaker

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Stunned Keltus opened at 7/1 with B365 for the 1.30 !!! Was expecting him to be fav around 3/1 ish

 

Got £20 on that now

 

Edit: Put another £80 @ 7/1 with B365 when Paddy Power opened at 4/1. I'll trade this position as bookie made a big mistake here.

Edited by CVByrne

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I've layed £80 back of Keltus @ 5/1 

 

So left £20 on at 7/1 and have free £80 @ 2/1

 

 

Also got £20 on Sands Cove in the 1.40 Taunton @ 10/3

Edited by CVByrne

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Bloody hell CV, I like a gamble but you are now even confusing me.

 

FWIW i tend to follow the jockey as opposed to the horse and i am a Gerraty kind of man

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wow this crazy weekday December curse is chipping away at me. Now 8 2nds and 3 rd place finishes from weekday bets this month. Never had the kind of bad beats before.

 

But we soldier on

 

Cheltenham Friday

 

Hit the Headlines – A horse I know has some talent, now been sent in the summer from the useless Charlie Swan to Gordon Elliot’s yard. He’s have 3 runs in beginners chases and now makes the trip over for his first run in a handicap. Elliott is well known at this stage for his strike rate in these excursions to England. £15 @ 10/1

 

Lyvius – Was running in class 1 handicap hurdle races for the entirety of last season without ever getting close to winning one. Jumped poorly in a beginners chase this season but now back over hurdles and dropped to a class 3 handicap now, Geraghty has chosen to ride and worth a go at £20 @ 8/1

 

Prince of Pirates – Goes  well fresh and won off 3lb lower mark at Kempton in Feb, I’m not fully sure he likes undulating tracks but he’s a horse who stays very well and with AP back in the saddle I think he’s worth backing at the odds. £20 @ 7/1

 

3:15 Angels Hill – Finished a close 2nd to Thomas Crapper over 2m5f at the Paddy Power meeting, is 1lb better off with that horse here and given his breeding and how he stayed on last day he’ll improve over this trip. 5lb claimer up means he runs off 10 stone dead. £15 @ 8/1

 

and a £5 e/w accumulator

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What more can you do? I mean it's slowly breaking me. To come 2nd yet again this time a photo finish. 9th now in December midweek bets.

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Officially been broken by this now. Lyvius 2nd too. I don't know what to do now tbh. Switch to ew betting on every horse?

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Thanks Snowy. Shame you weren't on after I'd written a big piece on him. 

 

Huge win that was. Well needed and shows how perseverance will always win though. £781.50 that won me. I deserved to get that win. 

 

 

1pt = £25 btw for people who don't know what 1pt means as I never post in points here. 

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Any thoughts on Saturday CV?

 

 

Sorry forgot to post in this thread my site is

 

jumpsadvisor.com

 

So check there in future. I'm going on holiday for 2 weeks on Thursday so will update my site with bets for the Christmas festivals. 

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Also will update p&l now too. Having hit -£290 for the month after a horrible run of weekday bets with 5 horses coming 2nd including losing a photo finish. Double ross pulls out a huge win for me on Saturday turning it all around in one race and back in the black.

 

Nov +£637

Dec +£452

 

I'll continue to post link in this thread to my site when I've updated it with latest bets so we can still use it for discussions etc..

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Ah well, Dunraven won that well. Good shout on him Snowy. Think that Ascot race from earlier in the month is worth following the runners.

Cheers. Just watched the replay and it seemed a slightly bizarre race - they lobbed along for the first mile or so, where Dunraven just walked through two of the flights, and then when they quickened up, the horse seemed to jump much better.

As you say, it will be interesting to keep an eye on the runners from that earlier race - Chris Pea Green (2nd in it) is entered for a race at Newbury on Thursday according to ATR.

V decent day for you.

p.s. Very disappointing run from Purple Bay.

 

 

Chris Pea Green runs today, but it's such a strong race and he went up 6lbs for his 2nd at Ascot. Plus he likes soft ground means it's tough to support him today. I'm going to give him a miss but hopefully he stays on the same mark and I'll back him when he gets soft ground and an easier race

 

 

 

I think this Saturday in the Ladbroke at Ascot is the day for Chris Pea Green, will get his soft ground with all this rain about. Has course form from his 2nd to Pine Creek and is a 4yo so on the upgrade. The form of that Ascot race got another boost on saturday when Makari won at Donny. Jumps Road also ran a blinder in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham behind TNO. 

 

16/1 best price

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I am on this one.

Had a £5 free bet available so I've invested it on him. I may well have a little e/w interest on Dunraven and Pine Creek, too, on the day.

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