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villaguy

how to beat the bookmaker

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Dark Glacier :(  what an unbelievable shout that was, so gutted he couldn't win.

 

Everything is just so close to going right and just doesn't. Today could've been epic.

 

At least all the calls were spot on today. Sometimes luck is with you sometimes it's not.

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12:55 Exeter - Downtown Manhattan - Jonjo specialty right here. Horse had a few decent runs when with Oliver Sherwood back in 2012 and likely injured himself on his final start for that trainer in March last year. He's since switched to Jonjo O'Neill who ran him likely 80% fit in a class 3 hurdle last month so as to get him a handicap mark (you need 3 runs over hurdles to get a mark). He now runs first time in handicap company off 105 in a class 4 race. Jonjo specialty is get them on a low mark and progress them up through handicaps.

 

The problem we have here though is Portway Flyer gets in here off a penalty, effectively running off a mark of 106 when his real mark will be about 120 based on his two facile wins.

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12:55 Exeter - Downtown Manhattan - Jonjo specialty right here. Horse had a few decent runs when with Oliver Sherwood back in 2012 and likely injured himself on his final start for that trainer in March last year. He's since switched to Jonjo O'Neill who ran him likely 80% fit in a class 3 hurdle last month so as to get him a handicap mark (you need 3 runs over hurdles to get a mark). He now runs first time in handicap company off 105 in a class 4 race. Jonjo specialty is get them on a low mark and progress them up through handicaps.

 

The problem we have here though is Portway Flyer gets in here off a penalty, effectively running off a mark of 106 when his real mark will be about 120 based on his two facile wins.

 

So what do you go for then? 10 to win, 10 each way and 10 on forcast Portway Flyer, Downtown Manhattan or something like that?

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12:55 Exeter - Downtown Manhattan - Jonjo specialty right here. Horse had a few decent runs when with Oliver Sherwood back in 2012 and likely injured himself on his final start for that trainer in March last year. He's since switched to Jonjo O'Neill who ran him likely 80% fit in a class 3 hurdle last month so as to get him a handicap mark (you need 3 runs over hurdles to get a mark). He now runs first time in handicap company off 105 in a class 4 race. Jonjo specialty is get them on a low mark and progress them up through handicaps.

 

The problem we have here though is Portway Flyer gets in here off a penalty, effectively running off a mark of 106 when his real mark will be about 120 based on his two facile wins.

 

So what do you go for then? 10 to win, 10 each way and 10 on forcast Portway Flyer, Downtown Manhattan or something like that?

 

 

 

I backed him to win on betfair where I got 29/1 he's currently 19.0 on there now.

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racingadvisor.com

 

Got my site up and running. Will continue to post on here too. But will start filling the site with some more racing info and some helpful pointers for people. 

 

If anyone wants to ask questions, or query my reasoning behind a selection etc.. or what some racing jargon means please ask. These questions can form the basis of part of my site. 

 

Remember everyone starts somewhere. 

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Sandown

 

Beat That £30 @ 7/4

Coole River £20 @ 7/2

 

Exeter

 

Whistling Senator £20 @ 11/2

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Even my calm is taking an untter beating right now. The level of bad luck I'm getting right now would have me punching a wall only last year.

 

Beat That has the race won and blunders the last to lose it.

Whistling Senator after 4 miles gets collered and beaten by a length.

 

Seriously, how many bad beats can a man have in a row??? Selections have been running excellent and just not going in. :angry:

 

Tide shall turn tomorrow.

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I can't watch British horse racing, but if it's any consolation I was on probably the worst bad beat of the year.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/12/iona-manhattan-and-the-bad-beat-of-the-century/

(Posting from mobile)

I had Iona -4 points. They're up by 8 when Manhattan hits a trey to make it a five point margin with 0.1 seconds to go. Bet's won, right?

The **** drunken Gaels fans storm the court in celebration.

The ref calls a technical against Iona, awarding two free throws to Manhattan.

They sink both of them, getting 2 more points and the cover.

**** fans couldn't wait a tenth of a second!

At least I didn't have them as the last leg in a $1600 accumulator, like some poor schmuck in Vegas, but that capped off the worst season of college basketball I've ever had.

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Yeah the bad beats come with the game. But this week has been crazy, defo one of worst I can remember

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Any thoughts on Clondaw Kaempfer getting a few quid of your previous investment back at Aintree tomorrow?

Edit: Also see that Saphir du Rheu is back out again tomorrow in a handicap hurdle at Sandown (upped in trip).

Edited by snowychap

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Sandown
12:50 Tanti Sissi £10 @ 10/1
13:20 Upswing £20 @ 8/1, Whisper £10 @ 4/1
14:25 Milord £10 e/w 12/1, Whitby Jack £10 @ 12/1
15:00 Captain Conan £60 @ 5/2 - NAP
15:35 Top Smart
 
Aintree
14:40 Clondaw Kaempfer £25 @ 4/1 - NB
13:30 Knockraheen £12.50 @ 9/1
14:05 Big Fella Thanks £10 e/w 25/1
14:40 Unioniste £20 9/2
15:15 Shangani £20 @ 9/1, You Must Know me £10 @ 16/1
 
Chepstow
12:55 Annacotty £10 @ 15/2
14:00 De La Bech £10 @ 11/2
14:35 Lookout Mountain £20 @ 7/2
15:10 Renard £20 @ 10/3
 
Navan
Faugheen £100 @ 1/2
 
£15 Treble on Clondaw Kaempfer, Lookout Mountain & Captain Conan treble

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Yeah Snowy, 2nd best bet after Captain Conan tomorrow. 

 

So many interest tomorrow I decided to just break out the scatter gun and take them all. This weekend is always like that with 5 meetings on packed full of racing. It's the most hectic day of the jumps season.

 

The tide will turn tomorrow  ;)

 

 

Top Smart the rank outsider in the last at Sandown, will look to get near 50.0 on him on betfair tomorrow

Edited by CVByrne

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I may have a few beans on things tomorrow - probably need to give Planet of Sound another chance even though it's getting on (I think 14s is available for it in The Beecher) and going to have to be talked out of Specialagent Alfie (from that Ascot race that gave Dunraven Storm and your winner the other day - Jumps Road? - albeit at the back but came out and ran second to Dunraven after).

 

Too late to get on Clondaw - 4s taken everywhere now as short as 11/4 in places!

Edited by snowychap

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Might be worth a look at Alfie Spinner in the last at Sandown. Trainer had a well backed winner yesterday and has had two winners from three runners today.

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Edit: Also see that Saphir du Rheu is back out again tomorrow in a handicap hurdle at Sandown (upped in trip).

Absolutely hacked up.

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Now that is the most pain I've felt all season. Backed Saphir last weekend and deserted him today and he bolts in. Disgusted. 

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