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how to beat the bookmaker


villaguy

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I've got to say I've really enjoyed reading all this.  Fair play CV you really do know your stuff! its very impressive, i'm pretty tempted to start following your tips (just need to get paid first so I've got some funding behind me!)

 

I'm off to Newbury Races on friday (i know nothing about racing) so I'll look forward to see if you tip anything for that.

 

 

Thanks, I have to admit I do enjoy giving my advice for others to make some money off too. (Even better that is Villa fans). I was thinking of maybe starting a blog actually and possibly reducing my number of tips per day to just my best tip or two of the day.

 

What I've done in here is post all my bets and stake amounts, I was actually just proving that making money from betting is very much possible. But I can't expect people to bet on all the same horses as me. So maybe a more focussed approach might prove better.

 

 

 

Iv been enjoying all your bets and although I i havnt always got the same odds and i missed on the winner you posted 10 mins prior im doing pretty well. I also may have been a bit too aggressive on the wrong horses as worse odds which i know is the wrong thing to do.

 

I am, however, up over £500 and that is including presuming no returns on the future bet on Balleycasey and double on him and the other horse.

 

So thank you very much!

 

Was up around £1000 but may have got greedy with the races Monday/Tuesday. Ah well you learn

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What would you say is good value on Doubletoilntrouble?

 

Hes 7/1 on Bet365

 

Anythng above 9/2 is value imo. He needed the run the otherday when I backed him, he's down bottom of the weights and has even more weight taken off his back by claimer.

Edited by CVByrne
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8/1 is pretty good value then.

 

How often do you use betfair? I know what the site is about but cant really work out if you can get better odds. You seem to pick up horses that have good value and then get worse as the race become closer, how much could you profit by backing/laying horses on there?

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 how much could you profit by backing/laying horses on there?

 

It depends on your bankroll, if its small then probably feck all but if you have a big bankroll then you (in theory) could make a healthy profit backing, back to lay, or laying. Betfair take a 5% commission so you have to factor that in too.

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I only really back outsiders on betfair, as the mechanics of the market is such that a favourite is priced pretty close to is chances of winning by bookmakers and the outsiders are priced increasingly less than their chances of winning the further you go out. This is because the bookies are contrained by the e/w terms. For example if there are 8 runners then they have to pay 3 places @ 1/5 the odds. If that becomes 12 runners it's 3 places 1/4 the odds. But the chances of a horse placing is not always a certain fraction of his odds to win. So you will see betfair is much bigger win odds for outsiders than the odds to place as you can bet in each market separately.

 

The reason I don't use betfair too often is because I spot value, and value often is snapped up before the liquidity of the betfair market gets going, which is usually day of the race. So my say 5/1 shot would be 3/1 by the time you can actually bet properly on betfair. Another thing I like about bookmakers is the vast majority do best odds guarantee, so if my horse goes off bigger odds than I back him at then I get the best odds. Ranjaan on monday is an example of that, backed 7/2 went off 4/1 so got 4/1.

 

Finally, by being a price snob and betting with whatever bookie offers the best odds on a horse I'm maximising my return, by constantly getting best prices I'm little by litte increasing my return for the season. But odds for the following days races don't go up at set times, it's usually one market at a time from about 4pm the day before until 9am day of the race. So before I know if a horse is value I have to wait to see what odds I can get him at, often the odds will only be there for20 mins before the bookie gets hit by a few marked accounts on the same horse and quickly cut its odds.

 

check out oddschecker website, on there it shows odds offered by all bookies, blue odds mean they have been cut, red odds mean they have been pushed out.

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Ah well, Dunraven won that well. Good shout on him Snowy. Think that Ascot race from earlier in the month is worth following the runners.

Cheers. Just watched the replay and it seemed a slightly bizarre race - they lobbed along for the first mile or so, where Dunraven just walked through two of the flights, and then when they quickened up, the horse seemed to jump much better.

As you say, it will be interesting to keep an eye on the runners from that earlier race - Chris Pea Green (2nd in it) is entered for a race at Newbury on Thursday according to ATR.

V decent day for you.

p.s. Very disappointing run from Purple Bay.

 

 

Chris Pea Green runs today, but it's such a strong race and he went up 6lbs for his 2nd at Ascot. Plus he likes soft ground means it's tough to support him today. I'm going to give him a miss but hopefully he stays on the same mark and I'll back him when he gets soft ground and an easier race

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That seems like sage advice.

I shall probably have a token interest in him anyway (ill discipline that is probably indicative of why I don't really make any money punting!).

 

Edit: Henderson horse in that race looks potentially pretty smart.

Edited by snowychap
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Also Puffin billy was wrong in his last 2 starts last term and he could be very smart too, Irish saint had a ding dong battle with rolling Star who won well at the weekend. It's a tough ol race this.

 

I would even as early as last year have punted this horse though. The toughest thing to learn in this game is letting a horse go unbacked when the price is wrong and accepting that some of them will go on and win.

 

The way you have to look at it is, if it wins your opinion on the horse itself was even more correct as it won at a price you thought was too short.

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Also Puffin billy was wrong in his last 2 starts last term and he could be very smart too, Irish saint had a ding dong battle with rolling Star who won well at the weekend. It's a tough ol race this.

 

I would even as early as last year have punted this horse though. The toughest thing to learn in this game is letting a horse go unbacked when the price is wrong and accepting that some of them will go on and win.

 

The way you have to look at it is, if it wins your opinion on the horse itself was even more correct as it won at a price you thought was too short.

A very good way of viewing it.

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Some value on Irish Saint at 9/1

 

 

Agreed. 9/1 certainly looks too big

so was it a bad bet or is it just better value now and should be going in again?

 

The drift showed he wasn't going to win today. Drift is nearly always bad. So you kind of know your fate before the race. It's the trade off you have with taking an early price. 

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Newbury tomorrow

 

12:55 Doubletoilntrouble £20 - no odds yet

14:05 Just a Par £30 @ 7/4

14:40 Renard D'Irelande £20 @ 5/1

 

 

12:55 Doubletoilntrouble £20 @ 8/1 - Paddy Power

 

 

 

 

+£12.50 today

 

 

Easter Day was a blindingly obvious bet in the 14:40 and I stuck with Renard because he won for me lto. That was a sloppy mistake by myself today.

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