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Transfer Speculation (Summer 2013)


samjp26

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*AUGUST 2013* GODDAMMITLAMBERTWHYHAVENTUSIGNEDANYONEONLYJOHNNYSMITHFROMACCRINGTONBUTHEDOESNTCOUNT

Shit! That's the argument I was going to use.

While I was typing that I had an interesting thought. Would people rather keep Benteke and sign no one or sell Benteke and sign people?

Interesting question.

Probably sell. We need to improve our defence and midfield.

Bent could always come in or move weimman into the forward position and give Grealish a chance out wide.

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While I was typing that I had an interesting thought. Would people rather keep Benteke and sign no one or sell Benteke and sign people?

For me the squad still needs a lot of development so if it was your options it would definitely (but regrettably) sell benteke for a decent fee and reinvest it fully into another 3/4 players

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Well this is fun.

Haha

Want to argue about something to make it more interesting? ;)

 

Well, we could argue about transfer speculation, at least to make it on topic? 

 

*AUGUST 2013* GODDAMMITLAMBERTWHYHAVENTUSIGNEDANYONEONLYJOHNNYSMITHFROMACCRINGTONBUTHEDOESNTCOUNT

 

While I was typing that I had an interesting thought. Would people rather keep Benteke and sign no one or sell Benteke and sign people?

sell benteke and buy some defenders/midfielders. we have bent, gabby, wiemann, fonz and bowery as attackers

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Don't patronise. Read the discussion between me and BJ10 first. We're just going to repeat ourselves otherwise and it will derail the thread for everyone else.

The correct answer is a pass that leads to a shot.

2nd question. Could one person score an action as a shot while a different person scores the same action as not a shot?

 

 

I already said that in my reply to you earlier - and you quoted me.

 

 

 

A key pass is that which would have been an assist if the shot at goal had gone in. So a key pass results in a shot at goal.
 
Why should I reply to you if you don't even read what you're quoting me about?
 
In answer to your second question, I've been over that with BJ10 so I will copy and paste as you are unwilling to read back.
 

 

If you could pass 2 yards to Bale or 2 yards to Parker for a long shot, who would you choose?

 

Bale is more likely to shoot than Parker, because he's a better shooter.

 

That is objective.

 

 

 No that is an opinion. Therefore it is subjective.

 

Those stats might show Bale is more likely to shoot (that would be objective) but they in no way show that Bale is better at shooting.

 

If you are going to base your whole arguements on statistics, you need to understand the basics first.

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I love stats, I am an accountant, fairly good with numbers and often look such things up for information. But that is it. You simply cannot base football analysis, and in particular player analysis on statistics alone. Didn't Liverpool try it under Camoli, and so they signed Downing, Carroll and Henderson for a massive whack?

 

The problem for me is two-fold -

There is always too small a sample size to weed out the anomolies in football (in baseball where they play 200 games a season, it works better; in american football it doesn't).

And second, there are too many external factors in that small sample size. In baseball, a fairly stat used is how many times a guy got on base (that rare yes or no question in stats) and it is only the batter against the pitcher (assuming fielding ****-ups even out). In football, you rely on your teammates very heavily (Benteke doesn't score if his team mates don't provide the service, but that don't make him shit). As 

 

So, stats are fine to demonstrate an opinion on a player or team, but can and will always be challenged as to whether the stat in question is a reliable one on which to judge the matter.

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Exactly. Stats are fine as a tool to support your opinion. They're very useful in that way.

 

But Con doesn't have an opinion. Or rather, he does but this opinion is derived purely from those stats.

 

if he looked at his stats tomorrow and it turned out he'd calculated something wrongly, then his entire opinion would change accordingly.

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On the question of selling Benteke, I would probably sell.

 

We might not find another Benteke, but it's almost a guarantee that we will lose Benteke. Might as well get some other potentially good players in instead of just trying to stave off the inevitable

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If Benteke wants to stay we'd be mad to sell him. He'll be worth more next summer anyway. Besides, the situation that's been posited is hypothetical and doesn't take account of the fact that we'll be wiping a big tranche of wages out this summer and will still probably bring in £15-20m in player sales. 

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Yeah obviously the ideal situation would be keeping Benteke for another season and buying some players anyways. That's what I envision happen if we stay up and I'll be moderately more excited if we manage to pick up some attacking midfielders and a couple defenders

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It is objective within the parameters of the methodology for adding up key passes.

That's the only objectivity that matters, because you want the same methodology applied in every game.

So the key pass stat is objective, it is coherent between players.

They're not using one methodology for one match and a different one for another.

When you say 'They', who are you referring to?

The specific website you have been getting your stats from?

What if one website says one thing, and the other website saying something completely different?

Will your head implode?

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I'd take Mathieu Flamini from AC Milan.

You might but Lambert wouldn't.

 

Newspapers say otherwise, Southampton were also linked... 

 

Yeah mate i suppose its a valid link ok but i don't see Lambert buying a 29 year old with a poor injury record even if he is on a free. It goes against everything he is trying to do at the club. Wages might also be another issue?

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I love stats, I am an accountant, fairly good with numbers and often look such things up for information. But that is it. You simply cannot base football analysis, and in particular player analysis on statistics alone. Didn't Liverpool try it under Camoli, and so they signed Downing, Carroll and Henderson for a massive whack?

The problem for me is two-fold -

There is always too small a sample size to weed out the anomolies in football (in baseball where they play 200 games a season, it works better; in american football it doesn't).

And second, there are too many external factors in that small sample size. In baseball, a fairly stat used is how many times a guy got on base (that rare yes or no question in stats) and it is only the batter against the pitcher (assuming fielding ****-ups even out). In football, you rely on your teammates very heavily (Benteke doesn't score if his team mates don't provide the service, but that don't make him shit). As

So, stats are fine to demonstrate an opinion on a player or team, but can and will always be challenged as to whether the stat in question is a reliable one on which to judge the matter.

Yep. Sample size is a huge problem in football.

Not picking on you Con, but since we have already discussed it, lets look at key passes. The best key passer in the world, according to who scored, only has 3.3 KP a game. If even one of those passes is misinterpreted, like a cross that glances off a players' head for example, then you have a measurement error that equates to 30% of the measurement. That is a big problem.

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I love stats, I am an accountant, fairly good with numbers and often look such things up for information. But that is it. You simply cannot base football analysis, and in particular player analysis on statistics alone. Didn't Liverpool try it under Camoli, and so they signed Downing, Carroll and Henderson for a massive whack?

 

The problem for me is two-fold -

There is always too small a sample size to weed out the anomolies in football (in baseball where they play 200 games a season, it works better; in american football it doesn't).

And second, there are too many external factors in that small sample size. In baseball, a fairly stat used is how many times a guy got on base (that rare yes or no question in stats) and it is only the batter against the pitcher (assuming fielding ****-ups even out). In football, you rely on your teammates very heavily (Benteke doesn't score if his team mates don't provide the service, but that don't make him shit). As 

 

So, stats are fine to demonstrate an opinion on a player or team, but can and will always be challenged as to whether the stat in question is a reliable one on which to judge the matter.

 

 

Carroll, Downing and Henderson are great players. There was no problem with that analysis. The problem was the price they choose to pay for them. They didn't have to pay that much.

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Yep. Sample size is a huge problem in football.

Not picking on you Con, but since we have already discussed it, lets look at key passes. The best key passer in the world, according to who scored, only has 3.3 KP a game. If even one of those passes is misinterpreted, like a cross that glances off a players' head for example, then you have a measurement error that equates to 30% of the measurement. That is a big problem.

 

 

The count methodology is identical for all players. You have yet to address this fact. This means that key pass number is objective when comparing different players.

 

Key pass quality is not measured at all. Not claiming that. You would need additional methodology to sort the key passes into boxes according to their quality.

 

All we know objectively is some players have a greater number of key passes than others.

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I think Benteke will stay another season. He wants first team football, and the big boys will want to see if he can repeat his good work again and not do what so many players do and struggle in their second season.

 

We need to get better defenders and one or two creative players and we'll be OK...

 

IF we stay up.

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I was at his debut in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy away at Bradford. Simply put, he was absolutely terrible, the worst display I have seen from a central defender at any level, made numerous mistakes, most of them were simply failing to control the ball, or tripping over it when he had got it under control. He didn't even look like a footballer.

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