current affairs Nuclear War (next week?)

[tonyh29]

Interesting article / opinion for anyone interested

http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2013/04/01-north-korea-oh#lightboxDiv

[dont_do_it_doug.]

 

These are just silly conspiracies really. It would be daft to claim that special interests don't have influence but to say the PM/President is just a "puppet" is equally as daft.

Erm George W Bush?

What about him?

 

Special *coughneedscough* interests?

[The_Rev]

Going back to the matter that North Korea have actually made a direct threat today, and that the US take it seriously enough to send a missile defence system to Guam (source) I still find myself blown away by the stupidity of North Korea on this matter.  I mean, what the **** are they thinking?  This is like me threatening Wladimir Klitschko. 

[Daniel1Avfc]

I can't believe fat boy is 29 years old, he looks about 15. 

[PompeyVillan]

Do the American public have the stomach for another costly foreign conflict, even if they are being threatened? 

 

North Korea might throw a few rockets or artillery shells over to South Korea, because they know that nobody wants war in Korea, but I think they're just posturing. I don't think SK or US will retaliate if they do.

 

If they do something more significant then it'll stir the US and SK into action, they'll have no choice really.   

 

A war against North Korea would be bloody and incredibly costly. No doubt an allied army would overwhelm the North Koreans, but it would take significant resources. There is also the possibility that the handover of Afghanistan in 2014 will be unsuccessful and lead to more international tensions. 

[The_Rev]

Would the US invade North Korea though?  I tend to think they would just hold the border and bomb the living shit out of it's military installations. 

[maqroll]

American troops will not be on the ground in NK. If an engagement is required, it will mean Air Force annihilation.

[AstonMartyn88]

American troops will not be on the ground in NK. If an engagement is required, it will mean Air Force annihilation.

This. However consider that if American troops did invade it would be Military v Military for the most part. I don't think there would be anything like the insurgencies/guerilla style warfare seen in Iraq/Afghanistan carried out by the people of NK, once the NK army surrendered I would expect unification to be relatively straightforward as everything I've read thus far suggests that the NK people have no stomach for conflict, rather its one dynasty of short fat megalomaniacs and a few generals.

Should unification happen, then China's response would be the source of concern for the US.

I could be wrong though

Edited April 4, 2013 by AstonMartyn88

[Genie]

As others have said, a ground attack doesn't seem sensible or likely. I would expect a coalition force, lead by the US to bomb the $hit out of the military/nuclear facilities from the air/borders before asking NK if they've had enough.

[Eames]

Hasn't the DPRK got 1m soldiers or something? (I may have made this up?!)

 

There is no way the US will put boots on the ground. It'll just chuck a few tomahawks and arial bombardments at NK military installations and bomb the shite out of the nuclear facility.

[LondonLax]

Going back to the matter that North Korea have actually made a direct threat today, and that the US take it seriously enough to send a missile defence system to Guam (source) I still find myself blown away by the stupidity of North Korea on this matter.  I mean, what the **** are they thinking?  This is like me threatening Wladimir Klitschko. 

 

It's just posturing. Little Kim has to make a name for himself and play to the galleries back home, he can set himself up as the hero that stood up to the imperialist America, but both sides know that actual war is a stupid idea.  

[AshVilla]

America could easily invade NK forget Delta Force or Navy Seals 

 

Send in the WOLVERINES!

 

[AVFCforever1991]

Kim is just reading of his Father's song sheet.

[Genie]

As we know, the American's are not keen on waiting to see what happens. If they decide that there is a reasonable chance that NK would fire anything in their direction they'll make a preemptive strike.

 

If NK keep stating that they will make a strike then isn't it perfectly 'legal' for the US to attack them first?

[Genie]

The North Korean military says it has ratified a "merciless" attack against the United States, potentially involving a "cutting-edge" nuclear strike.

"The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the army said in a statement on state news agency KCNA.

War could break out "today or tomorrow", the statement said, quoting a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

"The merciless operation of (our) revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.

"The US had better ponder over the prevailing grave situation."

The North's Committee for Peaceful Reunification of Korea was later quoted by KCNA as threatening to withdraw its 53,000 workers from the joint industrial zone it shares with the South.

Pyongyang informed Seoul on Wednesday that it was stopping the daily movement of South Koreans to the Kaesong complex, the last real surviving point of contact between the two countries.

And the committee said: "If the South Korean puppets and conservative news media keep badmouthing (us), we will order all our workers to pull out from Kaesong."

North Korea's latest pronouncements came as Washington scrambled to reinforce its Pacific defences, preparing to move an advanced missile defence system to the island of Guam.

The land-based weapon, which is primed to shoot down short and medium-range missiles, will be sent to the US territory to defend its bases there.

The Pentagon has already sent bombers, stealth aircraft and ships.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the North had moved a mid-range Musudan missile to its east coast.

The missile is believed to have a range of 1,875 miles (3,000km) or more, which would put all of South Korea and Japan in range and possibly also the US territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean.

North Korea is not believed to have tested these missiles, according to most independent experts.

Tensions have been soaring on the Korean peninsula since the North launched a long-range rocket in December and conducted its third nuclear test in February.

North Korea has threatened missile and nuclear strikes against the US and South Korea in response to UN sanctions and joint military drills.

European diplomatic sources speaking to Sky News from the North Korean capital have said there is nothing there to suggest war is imminent: no sign of conscripts being signed up or unusual troop movements.

US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Wednesday that North Korea's "bellicose, dangerous rhetoric" posed a "real and clear danger" to America and its allies South Korea and Japan.

"They have nuclear capacity now, they have missile delivery capacity now," he said.

"We take those threats seriously, we have to take those threats seriously.

"We are doing everything we can, working with the Chinese and others to defuse that situation on the peninsula.

"I hope the North will ratchet its very dangerous rhetoric down."

The UK Government said it was not warning of an immediate risk to British citizens travelling to or living in South Korea.

In a statement to Sky News, the UK Embassy in Seoul said: "We have noted North Korea’s most recent statement, we are monitoring the situation and are in close contact with allies.

"We have been clear to North Korea that its long-term interests will not be served by threatening the international community and increasing regional tensions.

"We have updated our Travel Advice, advising British nationals in Korea and those travelling here to follow the advice of local authorities and subscribe to our travel advice, Twitter feed and Facebook page. We currently assess there is no immediate risk to British nationals in or travelling to Korea."

The tensions surrounding Kaesong - established in 2004 and a crucial source of hard currency for North Korea - carry enormous significance.

Neither of the Koreas has allowed previous crises to significantly affect the complex, which is the only surviving example of inter-Korean cooperation and seen as a bellwether for stability on the Korean peninsula.

China, the North's sole major ally, appealed for "calm" from all sides, repeating Beijing's oft-declared position.

link Edited April 4, 2013 by Tamuff_Villa

[Eames]

There is no way either side will start chucking nukes about.

 

The DPRK aren't stupid. They know that if they fire first two things will happen - 1) the Yanks Thaad system will swat the missiles out the sky and then USAF will bomb the shite out of the DPRK military -  they'll be wiped off the map. The US won't fire first because they don't need to,

 

Once Foal Eagle has finished everyone will calm the **** down again.

Edited April 4, 2013 by Eames

[AValon]

China's stance is the most interesting factor, or side issue. Historically, they have pulled all the strings in the region and previous conflicts show they have always been major players. But its a different China today, both economically and internationally. Would they risk everything to solely throw their weight behind some delusional madman?

 

Its a possibility, but NK just might find itself out in the cold on this one.

[Genie]

China will be pretty concerned about the 100,000's of people flooding over the border seeking safety.

[tonyh29]

China's stance is the most interesting factor, or side issue. Historically, they have pulled all the strings in the region and previous conflicts show they have always been major players. But its a different China today, both economically and internationally. Would they risk everything to solely throw their weight behind some delusional madman?

 

Its a possibility, but NK just might find itself out in the cold on this one.

What China say in public and what China actually do are 2 very different things though ( see article i posted yesterday)

[The_Rev]

Which is also why South Korea probably isn't thrilled about the prospect of reunification. What do you do with 25 million people who have nothing?