markavfc40 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Whether we like it or not we are not going to be challenging for the top 4 again or even the top 6 without spending big again and being amongst the top half dozen wage payers. Our recent three top six finishes came at the cost of having the 8th, 6th and 6th highest wage bill. That was deemed unsustainable. Given that the other clubs we would be competing against for a top 6 finish will be Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool we are not going to again break into that group on the cheap. Not one manager or club has consistently maintained a top 6 finish and won things with out spending money and having one of the top half dozen wage bills in the country. The only ones that came close were Everton who had three seasons on the spin of finishing in the top 6 but have since faded. Maybe there is a manager out there that can have us competing for a place in the top 4, consistently finishing top 6 and competing for cups and do it with out spending big and without having a wage bill that reflects your position in the league. If there is then I guess us and plenty of other clubs are yet to find him. One things for sure that person is not McLeish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Good post, Mark. Think that sums things up very accurately. Unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Our recent three top six finishes came at the cost of having the 8th, 6th and 6th highest wage bill. That was deemed unsustainable. Given that the other clubs we would be competing against for a top 6 finish will be Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool we are not going to again break into that group on the cheap. i agree with you, but just to point out that even after the wage cutting, next season (2012/13), we are still going to have the 7th/8th highest wage bill, so a decent manager should be able to guide us to at least an 8th place finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 All the more admiration for what Redknapp has done at Spurs He's worked miracles there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloBarnesi Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 All the more admiration for what Redknapp has done at Spurs He's worked miracles there But of course he came to a club that had been spending (and trading players profitably) for a long time. This is a club who could spend big money on players like Dean Richards, Pavelchenko, Rebrov, etc, etc. They have made countless failures, whether it be Andy Reid or David Bentley or Dos Santos or Gomes... We saw ‘big’ spending on players for a small time, and stopped. What Redknapp has done is finally make sense of what was clearly a very good squad. He never signed Modric or Bale. Yes he signed Van der Vaart You might argue that quite a few of his signings like Bassong, Crouch, Keane mk11, Pineear haven’t worked out. Redknapp would like you to believe he has performed miracles; he hasn’t. He’s done very well, but with a very good inherited squad, which he has added to. And a chairman who doesn’t just decide to cave in and sell his best players. What Redknapp has done is get Tottenham to live up to its potential. If he were a miracle worker, players like Bentley would have performed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Two fabulous posts on this page from Paul and Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Our recent three top six finishes came at the cost of having the 8th, 6th and 6th highest wage bill. That was deemed unsustainable. Given that the other clubs we would be competing against for a top 6 finish will be Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool we are not going to again break into that group on the cheap. i agree with you, but just to point out that even after the wage cutting, next season (2012/13), we are still going to have the 7th/8th highest wage bill, so a decent manager should be able to guide us to at least an 8th place finish. This only works if player wages were a reflection of their ability. Just because we pay shed loads to the likes of Dunne, Collins, Warnock etc doesn't mean they are top 7/8 standard players. They have struggled, over the last 2 seasons, to show that they don't even play at Premier League standard at times. Our wage bill is so high but the quality of our squad is not good at all, which is why we'll struggle to get top 7/8 until this is rectified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Whether we like it or not we are not going to be challenging for the top 4 again or even the top 6 without spending big again and being amongst the top half dozen wage payers. Our recent three top six finishes came at the cost of having the 8th, 6th and 6th highest wage bill. That was deemed unsustainable. Yep. Its unsustainable because we are not big enough or not able to generate enough income to be self sustaining as a top 5 club. That's the harsh reality. Not one manager or club has consistently maintained a top 6 finish and won things with out spending money and having one of the top half dozen wage bills in the country. That's because its not possible. If you have a group of players who are good enough to get you into the top 6, then guess what they'll want pay packets that are the same as at the other top clubs, otherwise they'll be off. Football's all about money, simple as that. We don't have any so unless we get a shiekh in a la man city then we have to accept that we are going to be a feeder team for the bigger clubs, we can at best finish about 6th in the league and maybe we might get a FA cup or carling cup win sometime. That's it. We are not able to compete for CL or a league title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilchard Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 we can at best finish about 6th in the league and maybe we might get a FA cup or carling cup win sometime. That's it. We are not able to compete for CL or a league title. Personally I'm not asking for competing for the CL. I don't expect us to come anywhere near winning a cup. But what I want is for the team to be able top beat the likes of WBA, Swansea and QPR at home. If we'd have managed that, we'd be safe now - and dare I say a lot of people would have been a lot happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabby Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 If we are giving credit to Spurs then Levy surely should get a mention he managed the cash side of things at the club very well.Got good return on players they sold and stood firm over Modic this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 We will spend enough to survive, I see nothing to suggest Lerner plans on getting us challenging the top 6 anytime soon. Does seem that way.. "stay in the premier league" must be the key I guess anything else is a bonus for "them". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 So he's gone back to the US ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabby Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 We have dropped of the top 20 clubs for revenue according to the latest Deloitte figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGregor1888 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Whether we like it or not we are not going to be challenging for the top 4 again or even the top 6 without spending big again and being amongst the top half dozen wage payers. Our recent three top six finishes came at the cost of having the 8th, 6th and 6th highest wage bill. That was deemed unsustainable. Yep. Its unsustainable because we are not big enough or not able to generate enough income to be self sustaining as a top 5 club. That's the harsh reality. Not one manager or club has consistently maintained a top 6 finish and won things with out spending money and having one of the top half dozen wage bills in the country. That's because its not possible. If you have a group of players who are good enough to get you into the top 6, then guess what they'll want pay packets that are the same as at the other top clubs, otherwise they'll be off. Football's all about money, simple as that. We don't have any so unless we get a shiekh in a la man city then we have to accept that we are going to be a feeder team for the bigger clubs, we can at best finish about 6th in the league and maybe we might get a FA cup or carling cup win sometime. That's it. We are not able to compete for CL or a league title. This is the catch 22 position we find ourselves in. I think we are more than big enough to sustain ourselves BUT we need the initial (hefty) investment in order to get the project rolling. In Randy's first couple of seasons our crowds were steadily rising, for example. If the feel good factor and investment had have continued we'd be regularly selling out Villa Park at this stage and looking to expand. Likewise, if we had an owner who was seriously investing in the club we would find ourselves in the position of having more high profile players and sponsors ready to link up with the club. I have no doubt whatsoever that we have the fan base out there who would come along IF they saw something that was worth coming along for. It might betray the fickle nature of football followers but that's the way it is at every club - Man City and Arsenal (two clubs whose crowds, historically, have been very similar to ours) being prime examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukes Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 There is a plan B. We are reducing our wage bill and blooding our academy players into the first team. Once the deadwood has been cut adrift, I think we will spend money again but this time more sensibly If we plan to spend again firstly why appoint Mcleish? And if we were going to spend again why did only Mcleish want the job? We will spend enough to survive, I see nothing to suggest Lerner plans on getting us challenging the top 6 anytime soon. It was clear that we would not spend this season, so maybe that was enough to turn some mangers off. If Randy decided to trust in McLeish why not appoint him ? Were you at his interview ? There is no evidence that says the club has changed it's medium/longterm goals, we could be just getting things under control again before spending the necessary money to get s into the top 6 again. You don't know, neither do I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denis_B Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 There is no evidence that says the club has changed it's medium/longterm goals, we could be just getting things under control again before spending the necessary money to get s into the top 6 again. You don't know, neither do I. But by driving revenue down by not investing, finishing lower and getting less prize money once the wage bill has been cut where on earth is this money going to come from to challenge top 6? He needs about £50m to do that. Revenue stream has reduced significantly and the drop in wages will cover that reduction I would imagine so therefore no money left to invest. If he has it why has he stopped now? It doesn't make sense to me what he is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houlston Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Denis, I'm not sure revenue has dropped significantly, we had a lower league placing and have lower attendances but as a percentage of the overall revenue I wouldnt say it was that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denis_B Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Houls, we are supposedly running at a loss, I think it was £50m last year or somesuch. Wages are going out at a level we cannot sustain so by getting the high earners off the wage bill that just brings it all leve l again. I appreciate we don't know and it is guess work but the fact we couldn't even bring in another loan signing in January is pretty damn worrying to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukes Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 There is no evidence that says the club has changed it's medium/longterm goals, we could be just getting things under control again before spending the necessary money to get s into the top 6 again. You don't know, neither do I. But by driving revenue down by not investing, finishing lower and getting less prize money once the wage bill has been cut where on earth is this money going to come from to challenge top 6? He needs about £50m to do that. Revenue stream has reduced significantly and the drop in wages will cover that reduction I would imagine so therefore no money left to invest. If he has it why has he stopped now? It doesn't make sense to me what he is doing. As the wage bill drops, and maybe some of the deadwood (Beye, Heskey etc) is replaced by players from the Youth Set up (if you don't play them you never know how good they could be), that frees up some cash to compliment the squad with some clever buys. Whether McLeish is the right person to make those clever buys is a different argument, but our owner seems to think so, so it's irrelevant. I would never have expected Alan Pardew to have been able to make clever buys in the way that he has at Newcastle, but i suspect they are the model we're now following. Revenue is probably not dropping at all. As fans it's easy for us to overestimate the importance of gate receipts to a club, but over a season gates 10,000 a game lower only really make around £4M difference. In the past year we've signed our best ever Sponsorship deal, and now our best ever kit deal, so there's no real evidence that says revenue is falling. Actually, the important figure will not be revenue, more likely it will be expenditure, and as long as the gap between the two gets wider it doesn't matter if revenue drops. He has other options re investment, but i guess until things are under better control he is only putting in what he absolutely needs to, and having seen £100M wasted, I don't blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted February 9, 2012 Moderator Share Posted February 9, 2012 No it doesn't, it doesn't free up cash because we are cash negative we are running at a loss. If we get players off the wage bill we might, I repeat might break even but we aren't suddenly going to be running at a profit especially as revenue is failing so it won't "free up cash" to compliment the squad. Revenue is absolutely dropping there can't really be any logical disputing the fact even if we don't know the exact figures. Income from league position(s) is down, season ticket sales are down, match day attendances are down, we are knocking out match tickets at discounted prices for nearly every game. How on earth can revenue not be down? Yes we've signed new deals for the kit and for the sponsor and they will have some impact upon balancing out the drop in other areas no doubt. You can't though say that as long as the gap between the revenue and expenditure doesn't grow it doesn't matter if the revenue drops that is utter economic naivety. If the revenue is dropping but the gap between revenue and expenditure stays the same that means that expenditure has to continue to be reduced. That means an ever decreasing wage bill and less spent on players, that matters. That is a major problem and that is a club in decline and its a cycle that would be hard to stop or reverse without external investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts