PussEKatt Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 There is nothing wrong with the team, it's just that we need 2-3 players with decent PL experience to help the rest out. Are we getting anyone in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 (edited) And yet despite all the negative statistics, the rolling average points return is on an upward trend from a low at the end of last season. Edited January 8, 2013 by VillaCas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Villa's time series is definitely unit root LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormandyVillan Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 And yet despite all the negative statistics, the rolling average points return is on an upward trend from a low at the end of last season. It took me a minute or two to work out what that graph means because there’s no explanation, but I think I’ve got it now. The y-axis is the average number of points per game from the last five games played. The 5-game rolling average at the end of last season was in fact 0.6. Under McLeish we finished with a sequence of DLDDL, i.e. 3 points from 5 games giving an average of 0.6. The 0.4 at the start of the graph actually represents a slight dip from this, because it takes into account the first game of this season (the West Ham defeat) to give a 5-game sequence of LDDLL. If we draw the next game against Southampton the current sequence will be LLLDD and the rolling average will be down to 0.4 again (equalling the lowest point at any time this season or in the previous three seasons). If we lose against Southampton we’ll have LLLDL and the rolling average will be down to 0.2, the lowest since 2009 (corresponding to the sudden slump after going third in the League in February under O’Neill). If we took into account goal difference over each 5-game period (which would be -16 at best if we lost to Southampton), we would surely be on our worst 5-game since.... I would guess the last time we lost five in a row! I don’t remember the last time we lost 5 in a row. Was it a few decades ago... or perhaps even never??? If the answer is “never”, then losing to Southampton would not only lead to a new low on that graph, but we would also have just had the worst five-game sequence in our entire League history! I hope we win to bring the average up to 0.8 again, although that would still clearly be relegation form. Not trying to be negative, mind. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It took me a minute or two to work out what that graph means because there’s no explanation, but I think I’ve got it now. The y-axis is the average number of points per game from the last five games played. The 5-game rolling average at the end of last season was in fact 0.6. Under McLeish we finished with a sequence of DLDDL, i.e. 3 points from 5 games giving an average of 0.6. The 0.4 at the start of the graph actually represents a slight dip from this, because it takes into account the first game of this season (the West Ham defeat) to give a 5-game sequence of LDDLL. If we draw the next game against Southampton the current sequence will be LLLDD and the rolling average will be down to 0.4 again (equalling the lowest point at any time this season or in the previous three seasons). If we lose against Southampton we’ll have LLLDL and the rolling average will be down to 0.2, the lowest since 2009 (corresponding to the sudden slump after going third in the League in February under O’Neill). If we took into account goal difference over each 5-game period (which would be -16 at best if we lost to Southampton), we would surely be on our worst 5-game since.... I would guess the last time we lost five in a row! I don’t remember the last time we lost 5 in a row. Was it a few decades ago... or perhaps even never??? If the answer is “never”, then losing to Southampton would not only lead to a new low on that graph, but we would also have just had the worst five-game sequence in our entire League history! I hope we win to bring the average up to 0.8 again, although that would still clearly be relegation form. Not trying to be negative, mind. Just saying... Sorry about the lack of explanation - I've posted a full explanation with the chart elsewhere but neglected to copy it here. You're spot on with your interpretation though. Under McL the average points return fell steadily as the season went on. Under PL we saw a gradual (albeit slow) improvement........it was all looking good up until the Chelsea game! From game 9 to game 17 it was looking really good. We need to see if the Chelsea / Spurs / Wigan debacle was a blip or the start of a new downward trend. We obviously need to be averaging around a point a game at least - below that is relegation form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormandyVillan Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Sorry about the lack of explanation - I've posted a full explanation with the chart elsewhere but neglected to copy it here. You're spot on with your interpretation though. Under McL the average points return fell steadily as the season went on. Under PL we saw a gradual (albeit slow) improvement........it was all looking good up until the Chelsea game! From game 9 to game 17 it was looking really good. We need to see if the Chelsea / Spurs / Wigan debacle was a blip or the start of a new downward trend. We obviously need to be averaging around a point a game at least - below that is relegation form. Yes, that's about it, although around a point game is borderline. Two seasons ago McLeish took Birmingham down with 39 points, and they would still have gone down on goals scored with 40 points if they hadn't let in a last-minute goal in their last game. Last season he "kept us up" (all hail to him!) with 38 points. So it can go either way. To be safe, I'd say we need the blue line in that graph to be more above the 1.0 mark than below it over the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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