KenjiOgiwara Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: Is there really much riding on these debates? I don't see how anyone capable of critical thought can look at Trump and think 'that's the guy I'm voting for', he is relying on his cult followers coming out on the day and hoping it outnumbers the rest and if not, somehow rig it to hold on to power. Surely the wavering voters in swing states won't go to him this time round for a plethora of reasons regardless of the debates. Yeah I was thinking this as well. I also can't imagine there being a lot of voters on the fence here. It might have been in 2016, when all his bullshit was new and cute to them, but not now. BUT I can see a lot of people that intend to vote Trump, but will never admit to it, afraid of being ridiculed, thus it can give pretty inaccurate polling data. I think this occurred the last election as well. Edited September 30, 2020 by KenjiOgiwara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Certainly true that the number of undecided voters is a lot lower than in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 57 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said: Yeah I was thinking this as well. I also can't imagine there being a lot of voters on the fence here. It might have been in 2016, when all his bullshit was new and cute to them, but not now. BUT I can see a lot of people that intend to vote Trump, but will never admit to it, afraid of being ridiculed, thus it can give pretty inaccurate polling data. I think this occurred the last election as well. I think the more important group are those that didn’t bother to vote at all in 2016. Think quite a few people who aren’t that political, will be motivated to vote to get this abomination out of office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: You should always be wary of polls connected to debates - they often have methodological flaws, and 'debate bounces' can change depending on the later media narrative, or just dissipate anyway - but they mostly seem to show Biden ahead: I think that is pretty much exactly the same as the CNN numbers that came up after the first Hillary Trump debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, LondonLax said: I think that is pretty much exactly the same as the CNN numbers that came up after the first Hillary Trump debate. Maybe . . . she was widely considered to have won that as well. My post shouldn't be taken to mean anything about the eventual result (though I do think Biden will win, I don't think last night is any meaningful part of why). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 People always criticise polls; it wasn't really wrong about Hillary, she won the popular vote by miles. The electoral college is a shit show. (not aimed at you LL) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 There was an article in the Washington Post today talking about how the postal voting is going overwhelmingly to democrat voters which is supposedly panicking Republicans who are worried Trump has talked his supporters out of using the postal voting system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 10 hours ago, A'Villan said: Biden's support are apparently less likely to vote if they think Trump will win anyway. That's being passed off as factual I'm quite confident. With commentary like, "We'll have to see about that" when responding to the question of whether or not he will hand over power peacefully, and recommendations from his fellow republican Roger Stone to declare martial law if he loses the election, it makes you wonder if it's equally about Trump deterring voters from opposing him, as it is about him inspiring confidence in the population. Fear rears its ugly head to play a role in this, and Americans are full of it, they are united by it. I'm not making any predictions, as I don't know. I don't think that Trump saying that he might act like a dictator and then having a convicted felon saying martial law should be declared is going to motivate anyone to stay at home. There's a lot of this kind of commentary on Twitter, but Twitter isn't (even remotely) representative of the thoughts on the minds of a lot of the voters who are going to matter in this one. Yes, Trump shouted louder and interrupted more. Sure, he really riled up his base with nods to QAnon, OAN and the Proud Boys. But that's not a win for him. If he stayed on the topic of the economy (and being the one to rebuild) he could probably gain a couple of points since it's the lowest-hanging fruit, but he doesn't have the discipline. He's like the high school pitcher who turns up at job interviews ready to toss a ball. Sure, he might have good instincts for very specific things, but they are completely the wrong tools for what he needs right now. And for what it's worth, I don't think Biden is a great candidate - I just think that Trump and Hillary are / were historically bad, so Biden being average is enough right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, Vancvillan said: I don't think that Trump saying that he might act like a dictator and then having a convicted felon saying martial law should be declared is going to motivate anyone to stay at home. There's a lot of this kind of commentary on Twitter, but Twitter isn't (even remotely) representative of the thoughts on the minds of a lot of the voters who are going to matter in this one. Yes, Trump shouted louder and interrupted more. Sure, he really riled up his base with nods to QAnon, OAN and the Proud Boys. But that's not a win for him. If he stayed on the topic of the economy (and being the one to rebuild) he could probably gain a couple of points since it's the lowest-hanging fruit, but he doesn't have the discipline. He's like the high school pitcher who turns up at job interviews ready to toss a ball. Sure, he might have good instincts for very specific things, but they are completely the wrong tools for what he needs right now. This all strikes me as very sound. He's doing what he would need to do if he had a small lead that he needed to consolidate, or if he were level and muddying the water would be enough. Parity in the popular vote is enough for him to win the election, but he's quite a way off that at the moment. What he's doing isn't enough to turn around the 3-7 point deficits that he has in the half dozen states that he needs to win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, ml1dch said: What he's doing isn't enough to turn around the 3-7 point deficits that he has in the half dozen states that he needs to win. These small margins worry me. Do they cater for the known silent right wing types that vote Brexit, Trump but keep it to themselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 This looks like a healthy relationship. https://i.imgur.com/zzL7iYA.mp4 I hope she's dug enough gold to make the last few years of her life worth it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: There was an article in the Washington Post today talking about how the postal voting is going overwhelmingly to democrat voters which is supposedly panicking Republicans who are worried Trump has talked his supporters out of using the postal voting system. I read that too, but it's not clear to me to what extent this is extra enthusiasm, versus simply further reducing the election day vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted September 30, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 30, 2020 I think people have seen the debate and are trying to pin blame on one or the other candidate for it being such an embarrassing shambles for the nation. That's a really bad place for Trump to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, Genie said: These small margins worry me. Do they cater for the known silent right wing types that vote Brexit, Trump but keep it to themselves? Every poll is going to have its flaws. I'd say the best thing is to look at what they said about the 2016 race at the same time and see how that translated to the result. Around this time in 2016 most polls had Clinton 2-3 points ahead nationally, which is how it finished up - but state polling was more off last time. Whether that has been corrected this time...? On the small margins, they're not actually that small in real terms. (The 538 poll aggregate, tipping point is where the 270th electoral college vote comes from). So as things stand Biden has four or five states of leeway. Florida has got a lot worse for Biden, but Ohio, Georgia and Iowa have got worse for Trump. Trump's lead in Texas is shakier than Biden's lead in Arizona which Trump won last time. And in the next month he needs to turn some of that blue into red. In the last six weeks it's not moved much at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Apparantly they are making changes to the debate going forward, so what happened last night won't repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 14 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said: Apparantly they are making changes to the debate going forward, so what happened last night won't repeat itself. Will they mute the person that is not being asked to speak? That seems to be the request from 99% of people who watched it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Genie said: Will they mute the person that is not being asked to speak? That seems to be the request from 99% of people who watched it. Don't think they have been open about what the changes involves yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Davkaus Posted September 30, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: Certainly true that the number of undecided voters is a lot lower than in 2016. At this point, an "undecided" voter is a Trump supporter looking for justification. When you call a spade a spade on issues like Trump, you get people saying "Ah well, you don't win them over by being mean", well **** it. There's no winning them over at all. If anyone could have watched the last 4 years and thought "Well, I'm just not sure which of these is better", they're a **** stupid piece of shit and there's no point debating them. Day after day, lie after lie, scandal after scandal. Nobody can claim to not know what he stands for, or what kind of man they're considering lending their vote to. I've got less respect for fence sitters than I have for people who will at least admit they like Trump. Edited September 30, 2020 by Davkaus 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted September 30, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted September 30, 2020 There aren't enough likes for that @Davkaus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dom_Wren Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 These are the two candidates we (The US population) picked to battle it out to be leader of the free world? oh bugger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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