Smart Watches

[BOF]

I thank Conor for elucidating exactly what I don't get with them

[CVByrne]

Yeah the point is. To get breakthrough in tech you need a big big reason for someone to actually buy it.

The PC gave access to the Internet.

The laptop was a portable PC

The Mobile phone allowed calls and texts on the go. People could contact eachother away from a fixed home.

The Smartphone was the Internet on the go and a phone and mp3 player in one.

The tablet was a cheap and simple to use device for the masses and allowed Internet, games and video to be enjoyed from the couch.

Google Glass is what excactly? A new less intuitive way of using the Internet. It's functionality overlaps and lags smartphones.

The Smartwatch overlaps functionality with a phone and watch and misses out on the fact a watch is a fashion accessory. It's a hard sell.

[limpid]

My opinion is that most of the major manufacturers will produce a smartwatch. They might not sell in the same volumes as smartphones, but they will sell. One form factor does not fit all. Not everyone uses their device in the same way that you do. Many of my friends already feel that smartphones are too big; they are the people that the "minis" are targeted at. It's already the case that a range of screen sizes are good. The smartphone fills the "smallest screen" end of that range with the added benefits (for some) of being wearable rather than "carryable".

 

If you guys think they aren't for you then don't buy one. Your choice of device does not mean that a particular device won't be bought by anyone else. I'd never buy a windows phone, but some people said they'd be the (most attractive and) best possible device and asked why anyone would buy anything else.

[CVByrne]

I'm not speaking as much about my own personal choice as I am as a potential investor in a company that will make these.

It is a logical next step for these companies after smartphones and tablets. But it won't sell anywhere near the volumes as phones do. I've explained the reasons why as if I was explaining as an analyst asked about the potential of this sector.

Smartphones had a mobile phone market to consume. Tablets have a PC market to consume and can also fit along side.

The Smartwatch has 2 sections of the market. People who don't wear watches and people who do wear watches.

The former group in large part don't wear watches because they don't need them as their phone has a clock or don't like things on their wrist.

So convincing this group to wear one alongside owning a phone is contrary to the main reason they don't wear a watch in the first place.

The latter group wear watches, the vast majority are chronograph. They wear a watch to have the time on their wrist along with a piece of fashion or jewellery etc.. The watch market is a vast one where heritage is of most importance. Also the longevity of watches and the lack or a need to charge them are key factors here.

So convincing this group to ditch their watch is going to be very difficult. Some of this group may own a Smartwatch along side other watches. But the number would likely be small compared to the non watch group adopting a Smartwatch.

Now here's the key part. Both groups own smartphones, both groups will buy new phones in the next 2 to 3 years.

That is my argument. I see Smartwatch market being anywhere between 2% and at most 10% the size of the phone market in that 2 to 3 year time frame.

Then we need to consider the margins on these products will be much less than phones which are aided by carrier subsidies.

All in all it is not the lucrative market the tech press seem to think it will be and is. You need a lucrative market to have these companies drive the innovation. The tech industry has always owned the tech market. They're now moving into a market they don't own and I believe is the market they can't conquer.

Only if they find ways of adding smart tech to existing watch brands will they get in on the market to the extent people think. Which is Google partnering with Swatch not. Google partnering with Samsung.

[limpid]

How big is 2% to 10% of the smartphone market? Regardless, I think they'd be happy with that. There is no huge R&D cost here, it's only repackaging. I think 10% of smartphone sales will be at the top of their most optimistic projections. That's still a huge market. The R&D is paid for. This is finding a new channel to exploit the already developed technology.

 

No-one is proposing that smartwatches will take over from smartphones. I think that the wearable market is much larger than you do and that you continue to conflate how you use things with how everyone uses things. Kids seem like a particularly attractive market for smartwatches.

[CVByrne]

I just hope that Google try get watch makers on board and not just rely on their existing tech partners.

I can see merits in a watch that is a watch but then can have its glass change from clear to a screen when a text or email is received. Or can allow track switching from the watch. Or even gps and bluetooth low energy in a watch to allow access from just your phone. These ideas not Samsungs way or the inevitable Apple way.

Start with small additions to watches not an attempt to Barge in and reinvent the wheel. The wheel is still around we just put rubber on it.

[leviramsey]

I've long held that in the smartphone era the primary purpose of a watch is now to say "I've got more money than you". I don't see how, among techies at least, a smartwatch fails to accomplish that; it's probably the best way to accomplish that this side of a Tesla.

[BOF]

I've long held that in the smartphone era the primary purpose of a watch is now to say "I've got more money than you". I don't see how, among techies at least, a smartwatch fails to accomplish that; it's probably the best way to accomplish that this side of a Tesla.

True, there is that element I suppose and it's probably not to be under-estimated. I'd go further and say that 'in the mobile/cell phone era' watches are rarely more than a demonstration of wealth/status. Many gadgetholics will simply say 'it's a gadget that I don't have therefore it's a gadget that I want'.

[CVByrne]

I've long held that in the smartphone era the primary purpose of a watch is now to say "I've got more money than you". I don't see how, among techies at least, a smartwatch fails to accomplish that; it's probably the best way to accomplish that this side of a Tesla.

 

You could say the same about all things people buy no? Cars, TVs, Shoes, Suits, Holidays. A Watch is just another one of those things. But it's also still the best way to tell time as it'll always do it for you. 

[limpid]

I just hope that Google try get watch makers on board and not just rely on their existing tech partners.

I can see merits in a watch that is a watch but then can have its glass change from clear to a screen when a text or email is received. Or can allow track switching from the watch. Or even gps and bluetooth low energy in a watch to allow access from just your phone. These ideas not Samsungs way or the inevitable Apple way.

Start with small additions to watches not an attempt to Barge in and reinvent the wheel. The wheel is still around we just put rubber on it.

I've had a watch for over a year that can do all that (except for the glass thing). It's made by a tiny start up (in fact a kickstarter). I don't see what any of this has to do with Google.

[CVByrne]

Google need to create the hooks, the framework and the software for the watch to connect to the phone and make that opensource. This will allow watchmakers add in features to everyday watches.

 

For example a Casio Ecodrive that vibrates when you get a message, it has gps in it, bluetooth LE and some local storage for a few albums of music to stream to headphones. The key lies in the simplicity and inter connectivity and in the ability for watch makers to take this simple functionality and put it in watches. Let the innovation run from there. 

 

The idea that your watch is a phone and a screen to see texts on is the daft techsided view of it. That Samsung would do. 

[limpid]

My watch is a watch which allows me to control the music player on my phone. It vibrates when I have a call, text, email or hangout. It has an open API and can run 3rd party apps. (It's also waterproof and the battery lasts about 10 days.)

 

So what you are hoping will be available in the future if Google allow has been available for over a year.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

My phone does all that. Except the battery bit. 

 

My iPhone. That's right, my Apple iPhone.

[Davkaus]

So do all smartphones, that's kind of the point (Admittedly, Apple invented most of the functionality, but Android caught up pretty quickly. ), a smartwatch done well is going to be all of the same functionality just in a smaller device. The more handsfree factor could be nice I guess, but I can't see myself buying one.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Davkaus

[mykeyb]

Its rumoured that the Google Gem will run some kind of Google Now interface which sounds quite cool with the one proviso that it has some kind of in built watch facility that somehow syncs with your phone when paired but isnt reliant on a bluetooth connection to show the time as this is how the 2 Sony smartwatches have worked and its a pain in the ass.

[limpid]

Even my pebble doesn't rely on bluetooth to tell the time. That's seriously dumb.

[Dodgyknees]

I'm backing Limpid here.

 

My personal reasons are...

 

1) I like to go out on walks - long walks - and I sometimes do not want to take my 4 inch screen smartphone, I do not want to get it out and use it when it is deep in my pocket.

2) The above the for Gym.

3) The above for music festivals.

4) The above for when in the office or in a meeting, a quick glance at the watch is quicker than pulling out the phone - or wondering "did my phone just vibrate"

5) For commuting, i use buses a lot and having the watch with info on other than time is perfect.

 

Plus a number of other reasons why this would be great as my second phone.

Edited October 16, 2013 by dodgyknees

[mykeyb]

Anything worn on the wrist as a watch needs primarily to be a watch with added functionality.

 

It will be interesting to see if the watch will use the Google Glass apps as it follow a similar ration to the screen in Glass.

[Anthony]

So do all smartphones, that's kind of the point (Admittedly, Apple invented most of the functionality, but Android caught up pretty quickly. ), a smartwatch done well is going to be all of the same functionality just in a smaller device. The more handsfree factor could be nice I guess, but I can't see myself buying one.

Apple didn't invent most of the functionality. They just say they did. They certainly brought the smartphone into the mainstream though.

 

Back to the watches, how about home and or car automation? Tap your watch to open the car, turn the home lights on, lock all the doors, turn on the telly, turn over the telly...

Seems obvious when you think of it.

[mykeyb]

To fill the time until Google bring out their watch I won a Metawatch Frame for £7.00 and I am now waiting for it to come. There does seem to be some quite decent watches either out now or coming out at some decent prices.