Awol Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Putting a finger in the air and taking some wild guesses.... There will be a second major bank bailout probably linked with the unravelling of the euro currency in its current form, leading to a general revolt against the current financial system (driven through social media) and rebalancing in favour of the real economy bringing the bankers post war party to an end. The EU itself will probably survive but hopefully in the form of a trading block (as it was originally sold) with more flexible and slimmed down institutions to enable cooperation between nations on issues of mutual interest. Nationalism will rise and southern Europe may see the return of authoritarian regimes, dependent on the depth of the coming financial crisis. I don't see any evidence at all for the contention that national borders will be less relevant in 15 years time, if anything the opposite will be true as Europe is buffeted by events (probably a series of wars) in the Middle East and North Africa and the terrorist threat from extreme Islamist movements increases - from within and without. Civil liberties will continue to decline and the internet will be more tightly controlled. The generation that turns 50 in 15 years time will be poorer than their parents were at the same age and the ageing population will put unsustainable pressure on the social democratic welfare state model, eventually making it unaffordable. People will therefore be expected to do much more for themselves. Energy supply will be a massive issue leading to increased use of fossil fuels and a likely regression in the short term on addressing climate change, particularly as increasing industrialisation (and CO2 emissions) in the developing world make even continent wide action redundant. This will probably open the door to a closer relationship with Russia due to its huge reserves and regimes unfriendly to the west gaining power in the Middle East. We will be involved in further conflicts there and some form of WMD will be used by a participant. Hopefully this will drive nation states to invest directly into innovation around new renewable energy sources (other than windmills...) and if successful that could lay the foundations for another industrial revolution, but that is unlikely to happen in the next 15 years. The French will still be w**kers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidlewis Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The one thing positive about Europe is that it's becoming more atheist by the day. Which is a good thing. On the banks, it's funny how they've wasted our money, gone to the government for more of our money so they can lend to us at big margins to pay us back with our money. Banks have never had it so good. 5-6% mortgage rates on a 0.5% base rate? They're Kontz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 That's very good, Jon. Well, apart from the bit about the French, which is clearly just there to pander to Tony. But I'm becoming anxious about agreeing with you more than once a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 You will always in this country get the UKIP's and their totally ridiculous inward looking views In guessing your not going to answer the question as to why they are inward looking when they want unilateral free trade agreements around the globe ? Im guessing as none of the major parties will ever give us a straight in / out referendum then short term we will see more disillusioned labour supporters moving towards their natural roots in the BNP and a rise in Nationalistic feeling stemming from the North of England ... And then the major parties in the UK may finally open up the debate on Europe and give the people of the uk a choice ... It may be that Europe will be glad to see us go but as one of its biggest customers they will continue to trade with us regardless I don't subscribe to this vision of nations collapsing the opposite is more likely in all honesty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm becoming anxious about agreeing with you more than once a month. Internet tradecraft, Peter. I only pretend to be a nutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 2, 2012 Moderator Share Posted November 2, 2012 Culturally Europe is too different, look how long it took Britain to sort Northern Ireland out. A different beast but on that example alone I certainly cannot see eastern and Western Europe cuddling over anything other than stag dos, manufacturing relationships and tourism. For the EU to work you'd have to bring balance to the entire European workforce, level tax on income and businesses and somehow align us all culturally. Whilst what you say might sound like a very sensible soundbite its quite obvious that the USA makes your point look somewhat under researched. Culturally diverse (despite what some would have you believe) different tax regimes in each state, in fact different laws in each state (I was hearing only tonight on the radio that "Gay Marriage" is only legal in 7 states with a possible 4 more adding themselves to that list after the current elections), so the USA actually proves that you don't have to balance the entire workforce, level tax across states and align a country culturally for a giant super-state to work, in reality it just needs time. The European Union is still very young 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Whilst what you say might sound like a very sensible soundbite its quite obvious that the USA makes your point look somewhat under researched. Culturally diverse (despite what some would have you believe) different tax regimes in each state, in fact different laws in each state (I was hearing only tonight on the radio that "Gay Marriage" is only legal in 7 states with a possible 4 more adding themselves to that list after the current elections), so the USA actually proves that you don't have to balance the entire workforce, level tax across states and align a country culturally for a giant super-state to work, in reality it just needs time. The European Union is still very young The difference being people of many cultures left their home nations with the intent to become Americans, so they were deliberately joining a mixing pot of cultures in a country with no heritage or history (sorry Levi et al) of its own. Europe is utterly different with 1000's of years of history as distinct racial and ethnic groups with established culture under their belts. The problem isn't that the EU is young, it's that Europe is very old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 3, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted November 3, 2012 Whilst what you say might sound like a very sensible soundbite its quite obvious that the USA makes your point look somewhat under researched. Culturally diverse (despite what some would have you believe) different tax regimes in each state, in fact different laws in each state (I was hearing only tonight on the radio that "Gay Marriage" is only legal in 7 states with a possible 4 more adding themselves to that list after the current elections), so the USA actually proves that you don't have to balance the entire workforce, level tax across states and align a country culturally for a giant super-state to work, in reality it just needs time. The European Union is still very young At the same time there's not that much variation in tax regimes from state to state. The vast majority of states rely on a sales tax on at least most goods (typically about 4-7% of the retail price) and an income tax (typically about the same rate) (two states have neither: New Hampshire, which relies on real estate taxation and Alaska, which gets substantial taxes from oil companies drilling in the state). [the data in question is questionable in some details (e.g. the apportionment of non-resident taxation)] In context, the difference in tax levels between states is pretty negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidlewis Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 To be fair though 99% of the USA speak two languages English and Spanish. Not so easy in Europe. Fortunately though English is the language most countries use when they meet. Although now I am not sure why French in the UK is a compulsory language and not German or has that changed in the last few years? There are plenty of Barriers at the moment the EU need to address to move forward, tax, language, and culture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 "99% of the USA speak two languages English and Spanish" that can't be true. I know Mexican-Americans that can't speak Spanish LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 3, 2012 Moderator Share Posted November 3, 2012 Although now I am not sure why French in the UK is a compulsory language and not German or has that changed in the last few years? Its not and never has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Its not and never has been French has historically been the one that most of us can at least say a few words in, thanks to having had to learn it at school. My school taught it with no option of choice it may not be "compulsary" but it certianly wasn't optional for me either :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 3, 2012 Moderator Share Posted November 3, 2012 Rarely ever encountered a school that only taught French even back in the mid 70's my school did one half of the school French the other half did Spanish and there was optional German. French is supposedly more complicated than Spanish, so considered a better language to learn in terms of intelligence. German is spoken, in Germany and... nowhere much else so that's why its never the first taught language, that and we beat them twice in the war so they know how to say thank-you adequately enough in English so why should we bother ;-) Be better of learning Mandarin these days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 German for me when I was a kid. We had quite a few relatives posted across Germany so summer holidays were 6 weeks of euro adventure. We saw the world from the back of an Allegro. I was interested in German and it was a help to be able to order food, get the gist of signs and book camp sites. All the usual tourist stuff. I think I've forgotten 90% of it through lack of use, but we've a bit of a euro road trip planned for next summer so I'll be brushing up after Christmas. My wife has a bit of French, again, enough to get the message across in a restaurant. Enough, to look like you've tried, so they will then speak in english. We had an interesting insight into the psyche on our last visit. We were sat in some little backstreet restaurant in Paris (as you do), we'd ordered food, said where we were from etc.. Having ordered a half bottle of wine we changed our mind and she managed to ask 'for the other half'. The waiter thought this was funny, corrected her grammar, and we did the rest of the chat in english. Then, some english with a northern / Manchester accent came in, the dad moaned about french food and prices and then they proceeded to speak 'english abroad' at the waiter. That is, english, but slowed down and loud. Suddenly the waiter couldn't speak a word, couldn't even understand what pointing at the menu was supposed to mean. The people left, and he continued his chat to us. Nicely summed up a big stereotypical slab of both countries I thought. The second language of choice around these parts is Welsh. No use whatsoever* once you drive 30 miles east but If you want a local govt job, a national assembly job, a BBC job, a career in the nhs, pretty much any avenue to a better than average lifestyle, you need to be able to blag an ability to sprechen ze Welsh. *unless you're a jammy sod earning mad money doing instantaneous translation into Welsh in Strasbourg like a mate of mine who now has the money to weekend in New York when he fancies it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 i'm shite at languages but Mandarin would be the one i'd go for , i did briefly look at a night school but A ) i don't have enough time , B ) I'm lazy and C ) i'm shite at langauges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted November 3, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted November 3, 2012 We (1960s) did French (and Latin!), then the option of a second language at 3rd year - usually Spanish, but Russian was also available (not German though). At my kids' school, they were arbritarily divided into two groups - one half did French, the other half Spanish. Then German or Latin offered later. Depends on what staff the school has, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 French has historically been the one that most of us can at least say a few words in, thanks to having had to learn it at school. My school taught it with no option of choice it may not be "compulsary" but it certianly wasn't optional for me either :-) Was the English 'compulsary'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 4, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2012 We (1960s) did French (and Latin!), then the option of a second language at 3rd year - usually Spanish, but Russian was also available (not German though). At my kids' school, they were arbritarily divided into two groups - one half did French, the other half Spanish. Then German or Latin offered later. Depends on what staff the school has, I think. IIRC, Ben Franklin advocated teaching Latin, then French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 French is still more useful than German, it's more widely spoken and of course, if you understand French then it is very easy to pick up Spanish, Italian & Portuguese which are all remarkably similar. Some people argue that French and Italian are two dialects of the same language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis Apple paid 2% tax on overseas profit reports @guardian. Good job it's not run by a Greek, someone might have objected He has a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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