September Optimism Gauge

[Papillon]

Well it is going to be thrilling for sure, and if we can avoid relegation this season it would be a job well done. People can say whatever they want now, from the neverchanging pessimists to the realists to the delusional optimists, everyone holds an opinion - but come May 2013 Paul Lambert will be held in high regard, or he will be ridiculed for his naive approach and promptly sacked. The tenure of an Aston Villa-manager (or any other from the the bottom-10 clubs for that matter) is relatively short and statistics will show that, let us just hope he can catch some luck and secure a safe position. Anything over top 13-14 with this squad would be an amazing achievement in my opinion. If a club like WBA or Reading purchased all the players we have gotten in this window, I would bet none of us would say "wow, that was some business they did just there" - when some say Bennett and Benteke are going to be great, it is first and foremost wishful thinking which is only extremely natural given WE were the ones who got them. Objectively speaking though, what we have gotten this time around was the bare minimum for me, if it even was that. I expect very little from Holman (McLeish signing after all), and I expect extremely little from Bennett, Lowton, Westwood and Bowery. I hold Vlaar in pretty high regard and I think El Ahmadi will shape into a very decent player, someone who would fit nicely into a squad like Stoke, Fulham, Sunderland and all the other top 9-14 aspirating clubs. Benteke will be exciting of course, like every other half-expensive unknown striker with high regard in a less regarded league.

[LoughboroughLion]

I know we're trying to get a young team together and get the wage bill down. What I don't understand is why we seem to be one of the only teams struggling to control their wage bill. Plenty of teams around us and what we would consider lesser teams have sustainable wage bills but have a number of quality players and strength in depth. I don't understand why we seem to be struggling with this when others don't. We don't exactly have a big squad either.

Something I don't understand either. How are the likes of Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom sustainable, while we're not? They all have have better squads, haven't sold their best players in the last 3 seasons and have brought in people on higher wages than us this window. Yet we have a higher revenue, bigger fan base and a greater reputation.

[avfc1982am]

Optimistic? Well that depends on what one should expect. We all agreed that we needed a spending spree on the last day to stand a chance this season. We did buy players, but the problem is that all the clubs around us did the same and even to a better degree. Fulham getting Berbatov is a good example, they have a very exciting team suddenly and one that will finish above us all things normal. We have basically gotten Vlaar, El Ahmadi and probably Benteke to give us a few options - all the others are players that will needa long time to take the level or figure very little in the side. The new striker is basically for the future, Lowton is inexperienced and probably a long way behind even Hutton at the moment, the same thing can be said about Bennett with regards to Warnock. Say what you want about said players, but they are experienced at this level and have hundreds of games behind them. Both have also, at one point during their Premier League-career, been in high regard. Warnock was a very welcome addition to our squad a few years ago, there is no denying that if so, hindsight is a bitch. I would MUCH rather start with Warnock and Hutton compared to Bennett and Lowton, they should learn and develop, not get thrown into the side just because Lambert don't like the sight of the others. It is a very dangerous game bringing up semi-professionals to our first-team when we are going to play Newcastle away. Chances are we will get raped several times this season if our experienced players are rotting on the bench. I do like bringing in raw talent, it is a vital and very exciting part of the game, but throwing them all into the team when our team is already inexperienced and in lack of leadership and coherency, I think we are going to struggle immensely.

So optimistic? Well not really, not this season anyway. Just looking and the other squads, many whom are settled and have apparent attacking patterns, as well as defensive strengths, we are fighting with very young and unproven players without any form of established plan. This will take time and we are already at 0 points after 2 games and still a very tough away-game to play tomorrow. What do I expect? Well we can discard Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Newcastle, Everton, Fulham, Sunderland, Stoke, Swansea and probably QPR. The rest of the teams are AVFC, West Ham, Norwich, Reading, Southampton, West Brom and Wigan. I think all of those teams are going to struggle in the battle for relegation, including us. Stoke have invested very cleverly in Charlie Adam, who might not be a great footballer but just the perfect tool for their approach. They will safely end up around 10-12th. Reading and Soton have the promotion-spirit in them and one of them are probably going to surprise a few. Reading might too, but their squad is not better than ours. Wigan will go down this season I am sure, but the two other places are up for grabs. At this moment I think at best we will challenge for 14th, with relegation as a valid outcome. All in all, I expect a very hard season and one where we should be prepared for the worst. The level of the Premier League is probably at its all-time high, when clubs like QPR are getting Julio Cesar and Fulham are getting Dimitar Berbatov. We are doing it the sensible way, an admirable approach and probably the right one with regards to the future, but that sentiment counts for nothing when one goes down in the end. It is a bitch when measly clubs like QPR get rich owners, and people can say whatever they want about their wages to turnover-ratio, but if they can pay the bills then nothing will stop them will it?

Good point's. I am off the same opinion. Many of the club's in and around our position have brought in a higher quality of player. To think a couple of years ago everyone was dreaming of CL football and now most are either predicting relegation or trying to be optimistic about avoiding it. What a load of shit!! It f**ks me off how this has become acceptable. A club Villa's size been continually downgraded due to mismanagement or lack of ambitious chairmen.

I really like PL, I do though think this summer he needed a real helping hand by the board to get maybe another 5-10mil to buy 1 or 2 top players to rejuvenate the squad. The so called quality players we have just don't lead and although we have brought in 8 players, most are kid's, we've still not replaced Stan, Got an attacking creative midfielder- unless Ireland get's his act together, and width? who's supplying the ball's for Bent, Bent(eke) or Gabby. Our problem is width, creativity and leadership. Johnson, Ji-Sung-Park, Adams 1 or 2 of these would've been real quality signings yet Sunderland, QPR and Stoke- Do me a favour!

[Ginko]

I know we're trying to get a young team together and get the wage bill down. What I don't understand is why we seem to be one of the only teams struggling to control their wage bill. Plenty of teams around us and what we would consider lesser teams have sustainable wage bills but have a number of quality players and strength in depth. I don't understand why we seem to be struggling with this when others don't. We don't exactly have a big squad either.

Something I don't understand either. How are the likes of Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom sustainable, while we're not? They all have have better squads, haven't sold their best players in the last 3 seasons and have brought in people on higher wages than us this window. Yet we have a higher revenue, bigger fan base and a greater reputation.

The only thing I can think of is that by all accounts Bent and Ireland are on pretty high wages, around 60-80k a week. Then there's the next set down, Gabby, Dunne, Warnock, N'Zogbia, Given probably around 40k. Obviously I have no idea how much our players are paid. No-one here does, but these are the figures thrown out there by a lot of sources. I think it may be Bent, Ireland and maybe Gabby who are really pushing our wage bill up and because we have these three on such high wages, it means that we have to counter this by having more youngsters in the team on lower wages, as opposed to other teams having no real star players on 80k a week which therefore allows them less youngsters and more established players around 30k. That's the only thing that springs to mind for me but I'm probably wrong. I'm still baffled that we seem to struggle where other teams like Sunderland, Stoke, Fulham, West Brom, Everton (although their financial constraints are well documented, Moyes is a miracle worker) and recently West Ham seem to have pretty decent squads in term of quality and depth.

[Big_John_10]

Why does it have to be one extreme?

Why is it either buy cheap lower league talent or spend £100 million?

Is there no Inbetween? Could we not snap up young talent and sign some quality?

While signing Westwood and Bennett to build for the future could we not balance that with players like Adam Johnson?

I don't see why it has to be the cheap gamble or the ridiculous high spending.

I'll use this as an example. What do you think would be so much better about us having him ? City weren't interested in using him, England have hardly used him, he has scored a few flash goals and little else, yet would demand a huge fee and huge wages.

In fact you could easily make a case that he is NOT an experienced player at all.

Assuming he even wanted to come to the Midlands and a Club who have had a dire couple of years.

And assuming that he plays a role the Manager wants. And assuming the Manager is keen on his attitude, his application , and the example he would set the younger ones.

And so on. Liverpool did great with their 'experienced' players last year didn't they ? Carrol, Adam, Downing - what an advert for your approach they are !!!!!

I don't understand why you would be so much happier with that, than with what is a clear plan to have young hungry players (who the Manager has identififed as having the ability, temperament and character).

Hi Big John.

I know your concerns are genuinely held, but I would be interested in your response to this.

Adam Johnson was just one example, you might not rate him but I do and there were other good quality players that have been signed.

I don't think we should have signed just premiership players so i don't know what you mean by my approach.

We'll see what happens this season.

I get the impression that relegation will be shrugged off with a "oh we'll we tried" and promotion would be cause to name the stadium after the owner.

[Mantis]

Relegation is far from a certainty. It's not even likely.

[CI]

Sorry but if we go down the blame will lie with MON, GED & to a degree Eck

[sonic_bouma]

apparently according to the Soccer Saturday panel we are already down...

they highlighted lack of experience...fair enough...

but they all said our squad is of lesser quality than last year which is in my opinion bollox...

they banged on about us buying from Crew and Chesterfield but didn't once mention the quality of KEA on the ball and Vlaars good start....

negative bastards....

we have 2 worries IMO...

1. Lack of experience of the Prem (but this isn't necessarily a downfall if it clicks)

2. No creative winger/attacking mid

[Ulver]

Sorry but if we go down the blame will lie with MON, GED & to a degree Eck

But mostly Lerner for his complete mismanagement of the club

[Ian_Taylor]

For once I actually like the look of our squad! I have complete faith in Lambert and what he wants to do. HUNGRY, YOUNG AND TALENTED players all who have something to prove. Players who will pull on the shirt and go out and give 100% for the club. Can we add some quality to that down the road, maybe. But right now I believe these are the players we need. We have the 'quality' 'experienced' Ireland and Zog... look how great they've done. Will we win every game and challenge for Europe? No, but I thin the long term direction is the right philosophy and I have faith the improvement will come and the results will eventually reflect this.

[AVFCforever1991]

Sorry but if we go down the blame will lie with MON, GED & to a degree Eck

It was not MON job to control the Finances.

[TRO]

Sorry but if we go down the blame will lie with MON, GED & to a degree Eck

It was not MON job to control the Finances.

No it wasn't, but it was his job to manage the playing quality that the finances bought.... and in most cases it was piss poor.

[CI]

Shorey, Sidwell, Harewood, Davies, Warnock, Cuellar, Delph, Heskey

Tens of millions frittered away by MON

That's why he's to blame

[Ulver]

Shorey, Sidwell, Harewood, Davies, Warnock, Cuellar, Delph, Heskey

Tens of millions frittered away by MON

That's why he's to blame

But the likes of Milner, Downing, Young also doubled in value

[TRO]

The reaction to the signings is predictable, and to some degree expected.

I still say the experienced players, marquee signings call them what you will in the past has not worked for us in the main we have over spent on shite, who don't seem bothered.

We will see if this new approach, works for us, but only time will tell.

The players we have had the most success with in the past have come from this type of approach, so we will see.

The 64 million dollar question with all these gamble signings is " can they keep progressing"

Its not what they are its what they can be.... thats only something Paul Lambert has confidence in.

It has happened in the past with the like of Gray, Barry, Yorke, Platt.... but when it happens its so bloody gratifying.

[AVFCforever1991]

True.

[sonic_bouma]

Shorey, Sidwell, Harewood, Davies, Warnock, Cuellar, Delph, Heskey

Tens of millions frittered away by MON

That's why he's to blame

thats almost 50mill on those players

and who played a significant role?

Warnock,Cuellar,Heskey

awful waste

[TRO]

Shorey, Sidwell, Harewood, Davies, Warnock, Cuellar, Delph, Heskey

Tens of millions frittered away by MON

That's why he's to blame

But the likes of Milner, Downing, Young also doubled in value

It was abloody good job he did get some right, else we would be well and truly in it.

It can be argued, that had he got many of the poor ones right, the ones you mention would still be with us.

Players leave to play with better players as well as the money.

as a result of signing in the main dross, we had to sell the good ones to resemble some kind of book balancing.

[Ulver]

Someone posted this in another thread before it got locked

Vlaar > Collins

Benteke > Delfouneso

Lowton > Hutton

Bennett > Warnock

KEA > Petrov

Westwood > Gardner

Obviously based on hope at this point, but it could all prove correct.

But the reason we've slid from top six to bottom six isn't about the above, it's about nobody > Barry, nobody > Young, nobody > Downing and nobody > Milner

That's the problem. The big hitters, the players that make the difference between top and bottom half were all sold at big profit but they weren't replaced with anything near the same quality (if they were replaced at all!)

And until we get some of that kind of quality back again we'll forever be bottom half. I like Lambert, but he's not a miracle worker.

If we finish top half, i'll be VERY surprised and VERY happy.

And until Lerner dips into his stash to fund a few top signings it'll forever be that way. People say 'but he's just spent 20m', well yes he has. But it's just the 20m from last summers player sales that wasn't spent then

[TRO]

Someone posted this in another thread before it got locked

Vlaar > Collins

Benteke > Delfouneso

Lowton > Hutton

Bennett > Warnock

KEA > Petrov

Westwood > Gardner

Obviously based on hope at this point, but it could all prove correct.

But the reason we've slid from top six to bottom six isn't about the above, it's about nobody > Barry, nobody > Young, nobody > Downing and nobody > Milner

That's the problem. The big hitters, the players that make the difference between top and bottom half were all sold at big profit but they weren't replaced with anything near the same quality (if they were replaced at all!)

And until we get some of that kind of quality back again we'll forever be bottom half. I like Lambert, but he's not a miracle worker.

If we finish top half, i'll be VERY surprised and VERY happy.

And until Lerner dips into his stash to fund a few top signings it'll forever be that way. People say 'but he's just spent 20m', well yes he has. But it's just the 20m from last summers player sales that wasn't spent then

That last line is always a tricky one and old HDE always fended that one off...

You make a valid point with the Nobody's but i say again their sales were to cover the dross.

Ba & Cisse were not exactly marquee signings, but they turned out to be among the most sought after.

If Benteke, Westwood, Bennett, Lowton. etc progress beyond our expectations we will be talking on here about how we can hold on to them.

its all speculation, whatever the views.

we have to wait and see what happens.