General Conspiracy Theory Dump Store

[peterms]

I see the house has gone up 500k in value since the death it was only £1m when the report first broke ( a figure I also doubt)

Is it part of the media plot to make out he was some high flying type millionaire ?

Current estimates of value in that road seem to be around £700-800k, here.

[ml1dch]

This sounds more plausible now, in terms of a professional hit. Question is who and why ?

You've been saying it was a 'professional hit 'since it was first brought up on this thread.

Does that mean you didn't think it was plausible to begin with but just decided to say it anyway?

[CI]

I'm convinced they went to that location and parked up for a rendezvous. I think they were lead there under false pretenses. Would Mossad have killed the children ? I can't answer that.

Was it a loan shooter? Highly unlikely, I'd say it was a hit team of possibly 3 or 4. Hence the ability to take down a passing cyclist.

[Chindie]

I'm sure they got a good rate of APR on that loan shooter.

[peterms]

Kid left alive (not shot in the shoulder by accident given above marksmanship) but incapacitated to prevent alarm being raised immediately. Four year old no threat so left alive, if the family were under surveillance (which they would have been in the scenario of professional involvement) the presence of the child would have been known.

Sounds more plausible than that the killers didn't notice the little one.

Location was remote so it's highly unlikely they blundered into a pre-laid ambush (impossible to know in advance that they would go to that random location) and I'd suggest either:

a) someone in the car had a link to the people who shot them

their were lots of people involved to provide rolling surveillance and cut-off kill teams in different locations. Even then in that terrain it would be difficult and not a scenario even the best organised western criminals can either pull off technically or from an operational security perspective - too many people to keep it quiet.

Presumably any organisation trailing them would have proper equipment to show exactly where they were. Ironic, given his work on spy satellites.

I'm still struck by the coincidence, in this isolated spot where apparently you can go all day without seeing anyone else, there were at the same time a man working on satellite technology (and selling services to the RAF) for a firm also involved with nuclear weaponry and cluster bombs; a man working for a firm producing cladding for nuclear plants; an ex-RAF serviceman who managed to call the emergency services from a mobile phone dead zone; and a professional hit squad.

I see the press are now referencing the Jack Drummond case, as it happened not that far away and also involved killing the scientist and his wife, and bludgeoning the daughter. But that was 60 years ago, and can have no connection. Perhaps they should show more interest in the deaths of this couple, also killed on a road in rural France, who were working on Tokamak (something to do with plasma physics and nuclear reactors). Tokamak is something which is used by Areva, the parent company of Cezus, the employer of the dead cyclist.

It's a funny old world.

[CI]

This sounds more plausible now, in terms of a professional hit. Question is who and why ?

You've been saying it was a 'professional hit 'since it was first brought up on this thread.

Does that mean you didn't think it was plausible to begin with but just decided to say it anyway?

Sorry that first part was a rhetorical question to the doubters on this thread. As soon as I saw the news on this, in my mind it's a professional hit by an agency working for either a government or a large arms / nuclear / surveillance organisation.

The car would probably have been tagged with a tracker btw.

[peterms]

Telegraph now suggesting links between al-Hilli's work and his murder, but it's follow-my-leader stuff, repeating what the Mail and People have already said.

BBC and Guardian seem more reluctant to say anything which could upset the authorities.

[peterms]

This guy is apparently a tv presenter and criminologist (his description of himself - I've never heard of him):

Mark Williams-Thomas ‏@mwilliamsthomas

Contact has just told me- satellite company Saad al-Hilli's worked for in Gudford has been of interest to special branch for years

Never heard of Gudford either... :winkold:

[Chindie]

Peter, could you indulge me a moment?

What do you actually believe is going on here? Tell me the narrative you place on these murders, explicitly - who, why.

Because I find all these suggestions of shady goings on but without any real overarching implicit narrative incredibly frustrating.

For whats it worth, I'd posit this as where I stand with regards these murders - I believe it will be turn out that Mr al-Hilli, in his business dealings at some point in his life, has crossed paths somehow with an individual or group who he has subsequently let down/gone against the wishes off/threatened in some way, and they have chosen to eliminate him either to prevent him becoming troublesome to them, or exact revenge. He will have either borrowed money, or otherwise have had assistance or connection with some form of criminal or otherwise underworld gang (I'm aware to the fact some wag with sardonically quip 'Sounds like a perfect description of any world government to me, Agents killed him clearly!' - I don't think this is the case by any means, not to say that I don't believe governments will turn to murder in some circumstances).

They hired someone to kill him, took the opportunity of him going on holiday to do it, followed him to Annecy and saw a moment as they travelled through the forests to kill him. I believe they made some mistakes in the attempt - they felt they'd killed the older daughter (something they may still succeed in doing, she may not recover) and simply missed the younger. The cyclist being killed betrays an opportunism in the murders - had it been a carefully planned rendezvous I believe a number of people would have been involved checking the surrounding area was as clear as they could make it, killing some random bloke as he's on a bike ride is messy.

The whole thing is messy - the murders were clearly done by someone with experience of using a firearm but leaving potentially 2 witnesses alive, and killing some other chap, and simply leaving all the evidence there to be found (the murder scene itself, and the caravan), is silly.

I don't buy that theres some conspiracy behind this, shady government agents and nods and winks to Mr al-Hilli being possibly involved in hush hush business.

Whats your narrative Peter?

[peterms]

OK, since you ask.

It would be useful to establish a few things about the employment background of both al-Hilli and the cyclist, M Mollier, before looking at the likelihood of some of the possibilities concerning their deaths.

Mollier worked for Cezus, part of Areva. Cezus makes zirconium cladding for use in nuclear power plants, among other things.

Areva has just won a big (€400m) contract to supply UAE's ENEC (Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation) with enriched uranium. Link.

Areva is also involved in an international nuclear fusion experimental programme called ITER. Areva's part involves the Tokamak cooling system and "the fabrication and shipment of the TCWS’s pipe assemblies, pumps, heat exchangers, pressure vessels and filters". Link.

Iran is known to be developing nuclear power, and stories abound that it is developing nuclear weapon capability. It is claimed that Israel have said Iran has enriched uranium to 57%, and that this is part of the case Israel is making for a strike against Iran. Link, scroll down to Mark Golding comment 26 May 12.05.

The site in question is at Qom.

Al-Hilli is understood to have visited Qom in the last couple of years. Link, article hidden but small part still visible.

Al-Hilli's firm, EADS, for which he worked directly, and via Surrey Satellite Systems indirectly as well, is a very big player in nuclear arms as well as other things like cluster bombs. Link. EADS has previously been found to have been involved in dodgy business to win contracts (South Africa, previous link) and is now being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office. Link.

It is obvious that the products and knowledge of both firms would be of great interest and value to a country with an interest in developing nuclear capability. Iran, for example. But neither firm can openly trade their products with Iran.

It is suggested that both al-Hilli and Surrey Satellite Systems, makers of drones, spy satellites, and devices which can spy through cloud cover, had been the subject of interest from UK intelligence services.

And so to the deaths.

We've had various stories put forward, some of which are called conspiracy theories, others which have apparently been abandoned as too far-fetched for anyone to believe (the car-jacking one stands out, as does the bungled robbery, the lone psychopath, and the racist assault). I look at the various ideas in terms of how likely I think they are, and how well they fit what facts we do know among all the supposition and smoke.

1. Mollier was killed because he happened upon the al-Hilli family being killed.

Almost every story in the press has gone with this, and yet absolutely no-one has offered a firm reason to support it. Of course it's possible. However, it is reportedly an isolated road with very few people passing, so the chances of anyone passing in the short time the killings took must be very, very small. I say it took a short time because it happened 2-3 km up from the junction, the RAF cyclist said the 4x4 and motorbike overtook him followed by Mollier, by the time he got there it was all over, and even uphill it's not going to take him very long to cover 2km. If the killers passed the RAF man, they most likely passed Mollier shortly before, so they would have known both were coming. If they chose to kill Mollier rather than wait for him to pass, then why not also kill the RAF man on the way down? It seems more likely that Mollier was an intended victim than that he stumbled on something. And that's without consideration of the likelihood of Mollier and al-Hilli having a prearranged meeting. (All that takes at face value the reported statements of the RAF guy, which may not be wise, given the small chance of such a person being there by luck rather than as part of what was happening, but anyway).

2. Family feud over inheritance.

The level of organisation of the killings is clearly high, as AWOL has pointed out above and as seems to be accepted. It's not impossible that the brother would have the contacts and money to have that level of organisation deployed in a foreign country, but the amount of money reported to be in dispute is £1.2m, which doesn't seem to be an amount which would support this idea. There may well be a disagreement about the father's estate - it's pretty common between families. But it's a very big jump from there to having the motivation, determination, ruthlessness, contacts and capacity to do this. It seems unlikely.

3. Gangland killing.

He travelled to France fairly often, but surely didn't spend enough of his life there to get involved in dealings with organised criminal gangs, so I suppose the idea is a gang back home. Wouldn't it be far simpler to kill him in the UK than to follow him across France, have a tooled up and organised group of people follow him round, and hope for a good chance to present itself? And then the chances of him conveniently driving up a deserted dead end, heavily wooded, with no mobile reception...it's just not plausible.

4. Pre-planned killing at an arranged meeting

It seems unlikely that al-Hilli drove up there for recreational purposes. It's a rough, pitted, dead-end road through woods, of interest to walkers and cyclists rather than suitable for a party including a 4 year old and a 77 year old, all in town clothes. It's not a place to sit and admire the view, if you've seen the photos of the "car park" in question. It would however be a good place for an unobserved meeting. Not one where you feel at risk, with only one road out, and no mobile reception. Though if he had felt at risk, you assume he wouldn't have gone, or would have left the family behind.

So I see the most likely explanation as being that he went there for an arranged meeting either with Mollier, with someone else, or with both Mollier and someone else.

I don't imagine the killing was opportunistic, because the logistics of moving a team around while keeping track of him, as AWOL mentions, would be far from simple.

As for who did it, it seems most likely that it was some state agency. It would be within their capacity and experience. The speed and nature of the response, eg reports of 20 people being sent from the British embassy, also support the view that there was some intelligence or diplomatic aspect to this which went beyond what would happen in another murder, even a dramatic multiple murder.

Which state agency and why? Presuming it to be a matter of national security which could provoke this sort of act, the most likely explanation has to be what they both did for a living, and the possibility of either or both of them passing information which someone didn't want them to. If I were to put money on it, I would say passing to Iran information either about spy satellites or something nuclear, in which case the most likely agency would be Mossad, because they are known to have a lot of previous in doing this kind of thing. But you could also imagine the UK, US, France or Iran doing it, without too much stretching of the imagination.

[CI]

The 8 year old girl is out of her coma.

Be interesting to see if she can recall the events.

[mjmooney]

She'll remember a guy in a black balaclava with a gun.

[Chindie]

Thank you Peter.

Interesting.

I'm still not prepared to say it's definitely an example of state agency but thank you.

[CI]

She'll remember a guy in a black balaclava with a gun.

Exactly, a Mossad agent probably won't look much different to a guy you could hire in a pub in Bermondsey.

I cannot begin to imagine what those kids are going through.

[CI]

Peterms, that's a brilliant piece you've written there.

If you are not a journalist you should consider it as a career choice.

[CrackpotForeigner]

Other information that seems significant is that according to a BBC reporter, two French builders were working on a house overlooking the road. The house is owned by a Brit, and when they saw the BMW's British plates they thought it might be the owner's. They said the car was not followed by another car (which would suggest that if the killers got away by car, they had to have known about the meeting and been waiting for them down the road).

[CI]

Yeah I think it's becoming clear they were lured to that spot.

Just confused that they didn't tell him to come alone, or maybe that would have spooked him ? Probably felt safer going up there with the wife, kids etc

[Xann]

Iranian nuclear technician has to be up there on the 'Dangerous Jobs' list.

The likelihood of shit hitting fan cranks up with every passing week.

[Awol]

The likelihood of shit hitting fan cranks up with every passing week.

6 months ago I'd definitely have agreed with that but now I don't think so. No one other than Bibi Netanyahu wants war, including the Israeli military.

If the Izzies did bomb Iranian nuclear facilities it would unleash a full scale Middle East conflict that even the most hawkish American politico would shrink from - unless one wanted the entire region in chaos and would accept the resulting damage to global trade (serious), growth (severe) and energy security (total). Can't see the Chinese or the Russkies swallowing that prescription.

If the subject of this thread is connected to that then the stakes are so high that few governments would hesitate to murder people to avert such a scenario, hence the rather intense programme of assassinations aimed at all things connected to the Iranian nuclear programme.

I'd expect that the regular low level stuff like assassinations (us) and attacks on tourists (them) will continue until Ahmedinejad leaves office in Tehran next year. Hopefully then we might be looking at a slight thaw, but things would be far easier to manage if the Ayatollah was dead.

[Xann]

^^^^^^^^^^^

Today's Grauniad.