leviramsey Posted June 13, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted June 13, 2012 We have an Android thread. We have an iPhone thread We have an Apple (fanboi) thread General discussion of topics that transcend the narrow threads (e.g. comparos of Android with iOS (and Windows Phone?)) doesn't really fit in any of those. This thread will perhaps rectify that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted June 13, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted June 13, 2012 leviramsey"] an analysis of RIM's prospects Research In Motion, the BlackBerry pioneer that lost its way, finally admitted last week that it's in need of a major transformation. After falling way behind rivals Apple and Google in the smartphone industry, RIM must reinvent itself or else. The possibilities for RIM range from a quick sale to a slow, successful rebuilding process. There isn't a single, obvious outcome. And it doesn't look good: Almost all signs point to RIM reducing its staff significantly. Option 1: Drop It Like It's Hot One option is for RIM to sell itself right now for the highest amount it can get. While the BlackBerry phone platform isn't competitive anymore, and the once-iconic brand isn't worth much, there are parts of RIM that could be useful to someone. For example: Its back-end service infrastructure and business. Its millions of subscribers around the world. Its patents. Its large corporate contracts to outfit companies with thousands of devices. Or its direct access to promising engineers in Waterloo, Ontario, graduating from Canada's biggest engineering university. The trouble with this scenario is finding a buyer willing to pay an acceptable amount of money for the company, knowing its assets are declining in value and the company is in disarray. Any acquirer would be forced to quickly reduce headcount, with the baggage that comes along with that. Why buy RIM today for an amount you know will shrink as time goes on? When I first wrote in 2009 that Microsoft should buy RIM to jumpstart its mobile business, it would have probably cost $35 billion to get the deal done. Today, the market values RIM at less than $7 billion. Anyway, Microsoft - still the most logical acquirer - is busy with Nokia right now. That may or may not be the right long-term bet, but adding RIM to the mix just adds more chaos. Other buyers could potentially include Facebook, Amazon, Google or even Apple. But none is likely to spend more than the bare minimum for whatever scraps it finds useful. That doesn't give this scenario much hope. So I'm assigning a 20% probability to RIM selling itself within a year for $7 billion or more. Option 2: Control-Alt-Delete Rebooting RIM may be the best long-term strategy to keep the company independent. This concept has been successful for IBM, famously. But it's a lot easier said than done. The move that makes the most sense now is getting rid of RIM's handset business and trying to make the BlackBerry platform something that corporations and governments can't live without, regardless of their choice of devices. Selling handsets still represents the majority of RIM's sales - 68% last quarter - but it's a money loser. Still, this means shedding a huge number of employees and betting on a software and services platform that might never catch on in the open market. (Pulling out of the handset business, then, would have to be a carefully calculated move.) This means RIM will shrink in all metrics and may never become as big as the RIM of 2008. But that's reality, and you can't recreate the past. This is a bold strategy, but RIM's new CEO Thorsten Heins may finally be ballsy enough to do it. I'd say that there's a 40% chance RIM will announce plans to widely open its platform within a year. (It's already starting.) And there's perhaps a 10% chance it's wild enough to also announce plans to wind down the handset business. (This may not make sense right away, though it would be the strongest way to proclaim RIM's new mission.) Option 3: Slip and Slide Another strategy - the one that RIM's old bosses had been using for years - is to stick with the status quo, pretend everything is fine, and assume that whatever RIM will be able to ship next year will be better enough. Under this model, RIM would likely continue to lose market value and financial viability, until it's either sold in a fire sale or goes out of business. Given RIM's history, there's perhaps a 30% chance that sticking with the old plan will also be the new plan. But it does sound like Heins actually knows he can't do that. Option 4: Miracle Comeback One last possibility is that RIM will orchestrate one of the world's greatest all-time comebacks. This is admittedly far-fetched and probably less than 1% likely. But it's not completely impossible. It would require creating a product or service that leapfrogs Apple, Google and the rest of the mobile industry, and becomes an immediate must-buy. Something so amazing that I'd drop my iPhone and run to the Verizon store to buy RIM's new toy. This sounds unlikely, especially given RIM's track record. The iPhone was truly an unbelievable product when it launched, but Apple had that capability in its DNA. Even before Steve Jobs came back to rescue Apple, it was still shipping the best computers in the world. Apple just wasn't moving in the right strategic direction or thinking about the future in the right way, and Jobs changed that. It would be tough to argue that RIM has the right recipe of talent, leadership and vision to make this reality. But it's not completely impossible. And it would make for a truly amazing story. More likely: A modest push toward becoming primarily a mobile service provider and away from hardware sales. This is probably the safest and soundest bet. I'd now go for a combination of Ctrl-Alt-Delete and Drop It Like It's Hot. Facebook is reportedly eager to get into the mobile platform game (it may be the only real way they can monetize mobile), and buying RIM may be the easiest way for them to do that. There's a certain intersection between Blackberry's emphasis on messaging and Facebook, and FB has enough cash on hand (especially if they then spin out the BlackBerry software and services operation) to wait for QNX to work). The alternatives for Facebook (forking Android, perhaps even moreso than Amazondroid; taking over Maemo/Meego) are probably going to be more difficult than buying RIM. Of course, Facebook going into the mobile platform business is going to be dangerous. Would they effectively abandon apps for the other platforms as a means of trying to juice FacePhone? How many would switch to G+ (which has, I'm told, an iOS app that's comparable to the Android app) if FB basically stopped adding mobile features unless you changed phones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 I dont think Facebook would play hardball like that. I can see logic in them picking up RIM if the price is right, but trying to force people away from iOS and Android is a huge gamble which they will most likely lose, and will they want to risk haemorrhaging users by locking them out? I think Facebook would be daft to do that if they were still private, but now they are public? Not a chance. They might make the Blackberry app the most awesome thing ever and keep the iOS and Android versions very poor as they do at the moment (presumably the iOS and Android apps are so poor in order to "encourage" people to use the website instead) if they do go into the hardware business. Personally I dont think its worth the gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted June 13, 2012 Administrator Share Posted June 13, 2012 Facebook's business methods are at best troubling, but I agree that it's unlikely they'd have the arrogance to think that people would move to their hardware just to stay up to date with people who they don't really know. A more likely buyer for RIM is an established hardware manufacturer with a gap in their product range shaped like a smart phone. Someone like HP. It's hard to see why HP would try again with anything but Android though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted June 19, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted June 19, 2012 Stuff like this is why I'm somewhat vehemently anti-Ubuntu In a nutshell: in order to install a non-Ubuntu OS (including any other GNU/Linux distribution or other FLOSS operating system) on an Ubuntu-certified system, it looks likely that you'd have to disable UEFI secure boot (unless Canonical decides to start signing keys). It will be interesting to see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Can someone explain to me how facebook doesn't lose most of its income as people move to mobile platforms for accessing it? How can they make money from advertising in an app on a Google phone say? They make zero from their app, their own words. Will a facebook phone really help them this late to the party? Windows Phone will get its fair share as I and about half of my mates will move to it, so I'd expect it to get others and also mop up the remnant of RIMs business customers. No room for a facebook phone in my opinion. I actually see facebook declining at some point when people stop using it that much, the spread of smartphones to most of the western world will mean people can communicate with friends easily over 3G chats or other specific things, especially as everything moves into the cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Our office is a couple of hundred yards from the Apple Store in Birmingham so I went and had a look at the Macbook Pro with retina display earlier and while very nice I have to say I wasnt blown away by it. The guy in the store said they had sold about 40 of them so far (well, they had taken orders for 40 as they dont actually have any in stock other than the display models) which is pretty good going I guess. I just dont think the world is ready for it yet, the web certainly isnt other than Apples website which has clearly been updated to look awesome. I'd guess its the same with third party apps (though none were installed on the machine) and like a lot of people in the tech media have said, this is like the first generation Macbook Air, a statement of intent from Apple showing that they are definitely making seriously good products than something which is immediately going to be awesome. I guess next year when the rest of the world has caught up and there is a shitload of content to take advantage of that gorgeous display then it will be a more compelling product. For now the old adage that you probably shouldnt buy a first gen Apple product is still true The new Macbook Air is lovely too. I just cant justify the fat end of £1500 for the spec I would want (13", i7, 8gb RAM) and the way Apple price it just makes what they are charging for flash memory obscene. The processor and RAM upgrades are reasonable, but £400 for 256gb of storage space? **** that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted June 20, 2012 Administrator Share Posted June 20, 2012 I think I'm going to change VillaTalk so that it renders in "Ceefax" mode when it detects a retina display. Unless Apple pay me to re-design the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Stuff like this is why I'm somewhat vehemently anti-Ubuntu In a nutshell: in order to install a non-Ubuntu OS (including any other GNU/Linux distribution or other FLOSS operating system) on an Ubuntu-certified system, it looks likely that you'd have to disable UEFI secure boot (unless Canonical decides to start signing keys). It will be interesting to see where this goes. Interesting. I've been ignoring the secure boot stuff so far as I've never seen how it could work. It always seemed to me another TPM; pushed by MS into the Enterprise but ignored by pretty much everyone else. Now it seems that this is going to happen on MS-based OEM hardware, the alternative vendors need a solution. Either host the devil, or become the devil. Canonical seem to have chosen the latter, even though they're nowhere near big enough to be able to dictate anything in this war. If they turn it into an open signing service then they'll be championed. If they do it just as an 'I'm alright, Jack' thing, then they'll be vilified in the same way as Novell were for the MS patent deal. Be interesting to see where this goes. I still can't see it amounting to a global necessity, as it would need RedHat, SuSE and Debian to have access to a supported key for servers, which isn't going to happen. Vendors such as IBM, HP, Supermicro etc. aren't going to want to ship servers with the first requirement of 'disable secure boot'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Can someone explain to me how facebook doesn't lose most of its income as people move to mobile platforms for accessing it? How can they make money from advertising in an app on a Google phone say? They make zero from their app, their own words. Will a facebook phone really help them this late to the party? Windows Phone will get its fair share as I and about half of my mates will move to it, so I'd expect it to get others and also mop up the remnant of RIMs business customers. No room for a facebook phone in my opinion. I actually see facebook declining at some point when people stop using it that much, the spread of smartphones to most of the western world will mean people can communicate with friends easily over 3G chats or other specific things, especially as everything moves into the cloud. They know they can't do anything about the big move towards mobile devices so they're perfectly happy at the moment to keep a decent foothold by giving away a crappy but functional app. Good enough to work, just about, but nowhere near the HTML5 nice web experience. Once the mobile use reaches their pre-determined arbitrary critical mass, they start switching on ads in the app. Too late for anyone to do anything about it but the ads aren't annoying enough to force them to not use it. I'm sure FB are welcoming the latest Samsung Android phones with massive screens, and are hoping that Apple continue to push up the iPhone screen sizes so they can display ads without getting too much in the way, just like the web site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eames Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I think I'm going to change VillaTalk so that it renders in "Ceefax" mode when it detects a retina display. Unless Apple pay me to re-design the site. And how will you spend your £1.50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Facebook's business methods are at best troubling, but I agree that it's unlikely they'd have the arrogance to think that people would move to their hardware just to stay up to date with people who they don't really know. A more likely buyer for RIM is an established hardware manufacturer with a gap in their product range shaped like a smart phone. Someone like HP. It's hard to see why HP would try again with anything but Android though. HP have just dumped a massive load of money to get out of the phone business. They bought Palm, didn't do too well with it and decided to get out, losing a shed load of money. Can't see them holding on to the RIM carcase as it sinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted June 21, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted June 21, 2012 Stuff like this is why I'm somewhat vehemently anti-Ubuntu In a nutshell: in order to install a non-Ubuntu OS (including any other GNU/Linux distribution or other FLOSS operating system) on an Ubuntu-certified system, it looks likely that you'd have to disable UEFI secure boot (unless Canonical decides to start signing keys). It will be interesting to see where this goes. Interesting. I've been ignoring the secure boot stuff so far as I've never seen how it could work. It always seemed to me another TPM; pushed by MS into the Enterprise but ignored by pretty much everyone else. Now it seems that this is going to happen on MS-based OEM hardware, the alternative vendors need a solution. Either host the devil, or become the devil. Canonical seem to have chosen the latter, even though they're nowhere near big enough to be able to dictate anything in this war. If they turn it into an open signing service then they'll be championed. If they do it just as an 'I'm alright, Jack' thing, then they'll be vilified in the same way as Novell were for the MS patent deal. Be interesting to see where this goes. I still can't see it amounting to a global necessity, as it would need RedHat, SuSE and Debian to have access to a supported key for servers, which isn't going to happen. Vendors such as IBM, HP, Supermicro etc. aren't going to want to ship servers with the first requirement of 'disable secure boot'. Red Hat is paying Verisign $99 for a Microsoft key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I keep thinking about buying a Macbook Air. I can easily afford it but I dont really need one, I have a desktop which is good enough for games and I have a fairly new (core i5 Sandybridge) laptop but I am now thinking about getting something smaller. My laptop is a 17" monster, purchased mainly because I got it for a song and having something tiny but powerful has really started to appeal to me. The question is should I wait a year? Assuming that the next refresh will see Apple upgrade to the Haswell chipset then we could see a serious increase in what machines are capable of, and maybe even see a retina display as standard. I am no expert at all on processors but I understand that Haswell could be one of the biggest leaps in computing we have seen in quite some time. Anybody know any more? I really should wait, shouldnt I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykeyb Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 My Daughter who is just 7 has an Ipod Touch 1st Gen and it had become obvious that nearly all the new Apps wouldnt download because its stuck back on IOS 4 or similar so decided that she could just use that for music and bought her an Android 7 inch Tablet "Ainol Elf II" and I have to say that for the £90.00 we paid it is a fabulous little bit of kit. Runs all the latest Apps & Games, plays MKV films and appears to be really well made. She is chuffed with it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingram85 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Gonna get a 7" tablet but can't decide between the Google Nexus 7 or the Kindle Fire HD. Each has it's own pros and cons and annoyingly, seem to stack up against each other quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted September 8, 2012 Administrator Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not having access to the Play store would be a killer for me, so it depends whether they are easy to unlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'd go Nexus 7 in a heartbeat. The Kindle Fire is too tied to Amazon for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 IF you live in the US the choice become a question of what you want. But outside the US it's a no brainer, Nexus 7. Still limpid is right, no access to the play store really is a deal breaker to the Kindle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykeyb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 For some reason even knowing the screen is too small I have ordered a Nexus 7.........why!!! My daughters Ainol Elf II lasted about 8 weeks before the lcd screen (not the touchscreen part) cracked as she played a game on it. Lesson learned dont buy cheap chinese crap. Bought a 5 inch Galaxy Wifi of ebay for a hundred quid and she loves it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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