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Amo69

Relegation - Merged

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Haven't heard the fat lady singing yet so we're not safe until mathematically safe.

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I definitely don't want to go into the last game of the season level on points with both Bolton and QPR, it'll be torture at Norwich

Its 6/1 for that to happen, I can easily see us losing to Spurs, QPR beating Stoke and Bolton pulling off a win over the Baggies.

I think we'll get a point at Norwich but either way I just dont see QPR getting anything at City.

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still makes for an uncomfortable finale

But its par for the course this season

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Likelihood is we wont drop, but its still an uncomfortable last week to the season knowing its still a possibility

Joke really

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Everyone is slightly jumping the gun saying we are safe!

This could easily happen:

Sunday

QPR beat Stoke, and Bolton beat West Borm. We lose to Spurs. We are all equal on points (villa above on goal difference)

Next Sunday (13th May)

QPR draw with Man City (after City lose at Newcastle and can’t win title, so don’t try), Bolton draw against Stoke. Villa lose at Norwich

Villa go down!

Unlikely, but it’s a little bit early to be opening the champagne from where I’m sitting!

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When this thread started up, we were 9 points clear of 18th place (and 7 points clear of 16th) with 16 games to play and a vastly better goal difference than most of the clubs below us. Based on those stats I said it was extremely unlikely that 3 clubs would all be able to make up the points needed to overtake us and we shouldn't at that stage be worried about relegation.

14 games on, the relegation-threatened clubs have performed as follows:

Wigan: 22 points GD +4

Bolton:15 points GD -12

QPR: 14 points GD -8

Blackburn: 13 points GD -16

Villa: 10 points GD -11

Wolves: 6 points GD -26

So, even though it is looking reasonably sure that we won't be relegated, our manager and players between them have had a bloody good try at taking us down. If we stay up, it will only be because two out of Blackburn, Bolton and QPR haven't quite done well enough despite playing more positive football than us.

It's a quite shocking end to the season.

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Everyone is slightly jumping the gun saying we are safe!

This could easily happen:

Sunday

QPR beat Stoke, and Bolton beat West Borm. We lose to Spurs. We are all equal on points (villa above on goal difference)

Next Sunday (13th May)

QPR draw with Man City (after City lose at Newcastle and can’t win title, so don’t try), Bolton draw against Stoke. Villa lose at Norwich

Villa go down!

Unlikely, but it’s a little bit early to be opening the champagne from where I’m sitting!

Make your mind up about the probability! I think the "unlikely" judgment is the right one.

You are wrong to argue that Man C could go into the QPR game with no chance of winning the title.

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McLEish is a mastermind if we stay up on goal difference. keeping score down aginst the big clubs. Genius

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Equally, the following could happen.

We're all level on points going into the last game of the season. However, the week before United had a shock draw against Swansea whilst Citeh beat Newcastle 3-0. We're 2-0 down against Norwich and Eck takes off Agbonlahor and brings on Eric Lichaj.

Meanwhile, over at the Council House, Citeh only need a draw, as do QPR, not least when Villa go 3 down.

Cue each team running down the clock passing it around amongst their defenders.

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We were also 11 points clear of the drop zone with 10 games left (having just beaten Fulham). That was under 2 months ago

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Everyone is slightly jumping the gun saying we are safe!

This could easily happen:

Sunday

QPR beat Stoke, and Bolton beat West Borm. We lose to Spurs. We are all equal on points (villa above on goal difference)

Next Sunday (13th May)

QPR draw with Man City (after City lose at Newcastle and can’t win title, so don’t try), Bolton draw against Stoke. Villa lose at Norwich

Villa go down!

Unlikely, but it’s a little bit early to be opening the champagne from where I’m sitting!

Even if Newcastle beat Man City, Man City can still win the title on the last day. They will be trying for it.

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Everyone is slightly jumping the gun saying we are safe!

This could easily happen:

Sunday

QPR beat Stoke, and Bolton beat West Borm. We lose to Spurs. We are all equal on points (villa above on goal difference)

Next Sunday (13th May)

QPR draw with Man City (after City lose at Newcastle and can’t win title, so don’t try), Bolton draw against Stoke. Villa lose at Norwich

Villa go down!

Unlikely, but it’s a little bit early to be opening the champagne from where I’m sitting!

Make your mind up about the probability! I think the "unlikely" judgment is the right one.

You are wrong to argue that Man C could go into the QPR game with no chance of winning the title.

Oh I’m sorry briny_ear if you couldn’t understand! Yes, while I did say easily and then unlikely, what I meant was that it is still possible that we could go down, and wouldn’t be a complete freak set of results.

Yes, it is unlikely but much stranger things have happen in the Premiership. I personally don’t think its nailed on certainty.

If you want me to make it any more basic for you I can try and write it phonetically.

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Everyone is slightly jumping the gun saying we are safe!

This could easily happen:

Sunday

QPR beat Stoke, and Bolton beat West Borm. We lose to Spurs. We are all equal on points (villa above on goal difference)

Next Sunday (13th May)

QPR draw with Man City (after City lose at Newcastle and can’t win title, so don’t try), Bolton draw against Stoke. Villa lose at Norwich

Villa go down!

Unlikely, but it’s a little bit early to be opening the champagne from where I’m sitting!

Even if Newcastle beat Man City, Man City can still win the title on the last day. They will be trying for it.

You're right, but if United go 2-0 up within 30mins, City might take their foot of the gas?

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Puts cork back in bottle.

re-corking champagne is futile

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I think Blackburn have been completely wrote off a little too prematurely. If they beat Wigan, who granted are playing with such confidence at the minute, but I think Blackburn will fire themselves up for it and win, Wigan's form has to come to an end sooner or later, they're shit and there's a reason why they are below us. If they beat Wigan say 2-0, and QPR lose against Stoke say 1-0, Blackburn's goal difference is then only 2 worse then QPR's, which means they could go to Chelsea, lose 2-0, and still stay up if City put 5 past QPR, and Bolton don't pick up another point.

I know its all 'ifs' and 'buts', but I think there are so many unpredictable scenarios at this stage of the season that nothing is a guarantee, and so I'm not completely celebrating being safe just yet.

I definitely don't want to go into the last game of the season level on points with both Bolton and QPR, it'll be torture at Norwich

Who gives a shit about blackburn though?? They are out of the equation when it comes to us, so it makes no diffrence what so ever if they are being written off prematurely?

Our only worry is QPR, Bolton and Wigan.

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Let's face it we need two points.

Draw against last two or beat one of them it's the only way.

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Blackburn have to win both games (one of which is away against Chelsea) and hope we lose both of ours to have any chance to stay up. Even then they need a 14 goal swing.

If they do that, they deserve to stay up

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