Scottish Independence

[Risso]

 

 

 

I struggle to see how they can be entitled to vote on the future of a country they opted not to live in. If they vote yes they should be forced to return

 

 

If you move abroad, you normally have 10 or so years to continue to vote in elections.  The Scots have ignored this usual rule, as they probably fear that most expats would vote to stay in.

[bickster]

If they do decide on independence, what is the fallout for us - if any?

 

How will it affect us?

Irn-Bru and Walker's Shortbread will become subject to import duties/taxation, ultimately driving both out of the country.

 

For that reason, I'm against.

Shit you just made me change to be in favour of independence as long as Tunnocks Wafers are classed as cakes s and made exempt from import tax

[villaajax]

Anyone watching the debate? Salmond hasn't got a clue what he's talking about and when Darling starts to pick apart his questions he just talks over it.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Two well paid middle aged white men shouting at each other.

 

No thanks.

[villaajax]

Does it matter what the colour of their skin is? Racist.

[Wainy316]

Will we be able to get a work permit for Alan Hutton now that he's good?

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Independence ain't gonna happen.

[Xela]

Anyone watching the debate? Salmond hasn't got a clue what he's talking about and when Darling starts to pick apart his questions he just talks over it.

 

Darling had a beard even Rob would have been proud of in his younger days

 

[peterms]

Two well paid middle aged white men shouting at each other.

 

No thanks.

The shouty stuff is very off putting.

As for the content, very disappointed by how Salmond tries to run together currency union and sterlingisation, though as an economist he certainly knows they are utterly different things. Also the false claim that sterling is an asset that can be divided, deliberately seeking to confuse the pound with a pile of pounds; one can be divvied up, one can't.

[troon_villan]

 

Anyone watching the debate? Salmond hasn't got a clue what he's talking about and when Darling starts to pick apart his questions he just talks over it.

 

Darling had a beard even Rob would have been proud of in his younger days

 

 

 

I ain't gay or nutin' but........

[Corcaigh]

Didn't see the debate, but on the currency issue, the Irish Pound was linked to Sterling for decades after the south achieved independence, can't see why the Scots can't follow suit.

[peterms]

Because it removes some key policy levers from your control (the exact opposite of my idea of independence), means that your financial institutions have no lender of last resort so they decamp to a safer regulatory environment (slightly more of a problem for Scotland 2015 than Eire 1950), contradicts the legal requirements for EU membership (the legal advice is Scotland would apply as a new member not retain existing membership), and because Eire prospered when it became an EU member and freed itself from the strangulating effect of shadowing another currency (until the strangulating effect of joining the eurozone kicked in, of course).

[Corcaigh]

Because it removes some key policy levers from your control (the exact opposite of my idea of independence), means that your financial institutions have no lender of last resort so they decamp to a safer regulatory environment (slightly more of a problem for Scotland 2015 than Eire 1950), contradicts the legal requirements for EU membership (the legal advice is Scotland would apply as a new member not retain existing membership), and because Eire prospered when it became an EU member and freed itself from the strangulating effect of shadowing another currency (until the strangulating effect of joining the eurozone kicked in, of course).

 

But the point remains, there is precedent for a member of the UK to retain a form of currency union post independence. Ireland didn't leave the pegged Sterling because of the supposed stultifying effects of the Irish Pound being linked to the British Pound, they did so because of policy differences with the UK about the linked currencies and EU fiscal policy. If EMU didn't exist then I'd wager it'd still be the case today.

 

If anything there's an economic argument for a new nation like Alba having its own currency linked to Sterling being a boon to retaining and attract new industry by having a currency linked to the mighty, safe Pound rather then a potentially tricky new currency (Scottish Lira?).

 

There is precedent for new EU members to keep their own currency upon entry if they so wish. If a war ravaged and wary Irish Free State can kiss and make up with the British government enough to have linked currencies, then surely 21st Century Scotland and the UK can do likewise? It would be my own opinion that as Scotland has been in full economic union with the rest of Britain for the past three centuries then the Sterling is as much theirs as it is the rest of the UK's.

 

If, in the highly unlikely event the Scots do vote for independence, I imagine this currency debate will be seen for what it is, politicking, electioneering and fear mongering by the various pro and anti independence groups. Scotland, like Ireland in the 1920s, will still be heavily linked economically with the rest of the UK.  A form of currency union between Scotland and the rump UK state is almost inevitable.

[peterms]

Yes, I agree with some of that.

Though the thing about "sterling is ours as much as it's yours" is utter nonsense, and Salmond must know that. It is the currency of the UK. You can use it either as the UK (which they wish to leave), or in a formal currency union (which appears to be in the interests of Scotland but not rUK), or informally, which means no LOLR, policy decided by a foreign power etc.

Own currency is the best model, coupled with some robust challenging of the total bollocks about govt spending coming from taxes.

But yes, much rational debate has been silenced by shite on both sides.

[chrisp65]

watching a replay of the second debate at the moment

 

can't decide if Al Darling is deliberately lying or utterly misinformed on the amount of oil and oil revenue projection

 

'there has never been as much oil as has been forecast, volatility of the market means we can no longer rely on any oil income', really? original 1980's forecast said it would be all but exhausted by 19992. Mid 1990's revision was there was possibly another 10 years of oil if we invented new means of extraction. Current forecast, maybe another 20 years. To claim its basically about to run dry weeks after the election is nothing but a tactic to scare people and is shameful.

 

Ever since Britoil was privatised over 30 years ago we've been told we've all but exhausted the north sea. In reality, tweeking the tax breaks have always suddenly lead to discoveries of new stocks.

[bickster]

The other point about Oil though is the volatility of "the market", the SNP's projections on income are based on one years prices, when prices were at an all time high, they've dropped significantly since then and are still falling. Prices at the pump have fallen a good 10p a litre since those projections with more drops to come, the Saudi's have an oil glut right now and projections are falling prices for a couple of years, which means just at the point that Scotland would achieve independence, their golden asset is worth nowhere near what the SNP projections say and regardless of whether Scotland is in or out, any flavour of Government is going to introduce even greater "austerity measures". It makes the Yes campaigns projections seem either overtly optimistic or downright lies.

And still no one has really discussed the HUGE elephant in the room. EU membership. The YES campaign want to be a part of the EU, er hello, wake up, bacon's cooking. Run that by us again. Independent AND in the EU… anyone notice a big flaw here? Not only that but we already know they'd have to apply for membership which will take years, Spain and France will veto Scottish membership from the off, they have way too many separatist issues of their own to be even slightly encouraging breakaway countries to be allowed to join the EU.

[chrisp65]

But the point about EU membership and independence being flawed is slightly looking at it from the wrong perspective. Right now, however Scotland votes they get a Conservative agenda and they get told what to do on all the serious stuff by Westminster. To swap Westminster which is lead in part by the EU, for a direct line to the EU has to be an improvement. It takes out a layer of admin and a layer of politics that is most often at odds with what Scotland wants. Surely that has to be a good thing, the sort of thing the Conservatives would approve of in any other circumstances other than them losing control.

 

As for the oil price, yes, its volatile. At best it's a guess. Darling's guess when he was Chancellor was as wrong as anyone's ever been so he's really not in a position to try and scare people with made up facts.

 

The whole debate last night was the usual disappointing exchange of half truths, wishful thinking and just rubbishing the opposition's arguement as a bogus way of proving your own. Quite disappointing, thoroughly predictable.

 

Best of luck Scotland.

[colhint]

I think its so important for them to have the facts. Its not like a General election where you can change your mind in 5 years. 

 

The Other thing I'm wondering, If there is a Yes vote, and Scotland get their share of the Oil. What would happen if The Hebrides and Shetlands wanted independence from Scotland. Would they get their share of the oil, Wouldn't it make them some of the richest people on the planet?

[chrisp65]

It's interesting that both the yes and no side have happily gone through this whole process without ever bothering with independent verifiable facts. Better to start every debate with 'well what I think, is....' than actually inform people of the truth as best it can be established for future events.

 

For me, the massive hole under the water for the yes campaign has been the money. No clear answer on the basics of what currency to I get paid in leaves me wondering if that was their get out plan all along. They never really really wanted independence, they just wanted an exciting 18 months in the spotlight and a glorious failure. They've let their people (i.e. potential yes voters) down badly on that fundamental flaw. Never mind oil, never mind the EU, they don't have a coherent plan for their own money. I suspect that several years ago when the project was just an exciting idea the plan was to go with the Euro. But they've had that one scuppered by events and didn't have the wit to think up an alternative.

[lapal_fan]

I think, should the Scotch not gain independence, we should hang, draw and quarter Salmond like his historical counterpart William Wally.  That's obviously what he wants