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Iran next?


Chindie

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Surely the best way of dealing with Iran is to aid the pro-democracy movement that clearly exists in the country to over-throw Mr AfterdinnerJazz. No need for strikes against the country killing many thousand's of innocents, yet again. OK back it up after the people have shown the way (a la Libya, if you like), enforcing no fly zone etc but leave it to the people has to be the way forward

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Surely the best way of dealing with Iran is to aid the pro-democracy movement that clearly exists in the country to over-throw Mr AfterdinnerJazz. No need for strikes against the country killing many thousand's of innocents, yet again. OK back it up after the people have shown the way (a la Libya, if you like), enforcing no fly zone etc but leave it to the people has to be the way forward

If regime change is the ambition then that is pretty much the only way forward. That is, if you're not willing to invest about 15 years, an unlimited amount of money and far more fallen troops than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

If it's the way forward in dealing with a potential nuclear threat (as is as far as US/Israeli ambitions go at the moment) is a different question all together. And if I were Israel (and by default the US) with their interests and goals (expansion and the realisation of Eretz Israel, make no mistake!) I would not be banking on what may very well be a minority movement within Iran to do the job for me.

All this of course depends on wether or not Iran are developing nuclear weapons capabilities. But again, Israel aren't too keen to sit and wait to see what happens.

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Militarily, Israel lack the capacity to strike a death blow to Iran’s nuclear project

to my mind it sounds like Israel using the threat of attack on Iran as an effort to distract the world from the international pressure on Israel to end the Palestinian occupation

but I always was a bit of a conspiracist

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As Michelsen has said no one seriously screws with N Korea because ultimately they are backstopped by China. Iran is a different case and seeking regional hegemony to the disadvantage of Saudi, Israel and anyone else they consider poses a challenge to their (rulers) ambitions - note the various Iranian assassination plots that have been foiled recently. Persia used to be the Empire before the Greeks smashed them up and the desire to be top dog again is alive and well.

Trouble is that up to now there hasn't been a physical playing field to sort out this litte drama, but once Barry-O has completed the US pull out from Iraq (Christmas) there is suddenly a handy piece of real estate to host the Sunni vs Shia death match.

It certainly makes sense for the West to prepare to use that window (and we'd defend Saudi against any direct threat) to remove Iran's most potent threat which is their nuclear programme. We (UK/USA/NATO) certainly wouldn't be invading anyone.

If things escalated beyond both sides using the Iraqi population as a proxy force, the hope would be of a resurgence of the Green Movement inside Iran to knock off the mad Mullahs - which we would undoubtedly give massive covert assistance to.

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My impression of Iran is that its middle class and urban population are relatively sophisticated. Unfortunately they all have to put up with some moral policing, which is strict and quite bonkers in some ways. Mostly the average folk are well over living in fear of rules, at least in Tehran anyway.

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I really don't know why "the west" (i.e. us and the Americans this time) are focussing on Iran's nuclear programme AGAIN. Think I saw Bicks post above, but why the hell aren't we putting all resources we have at our disposal into the democracy reformation? The green lot in 2009 looked like they were actually going to topple the mad ayatollah they were so many of them. Where are they now? We should have done more....

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Militarily, Israel lack the capacity to strike a death blow to Iran’s nuclear project

to my mind it sounds like Israel using the threat of attack on Iran as an effort to distract the world from the international pressure on Israel to end the Palestinian occupation

but I always was a bit of a conspiracist

....this also sounds about right. They've not got the best of track records with this have they...? Ariel Sharon loved to chuck out a wobbley threat/quote when the heat was on....

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I'm a bit sick of listening to all those folks bickering over land.

it's an interesting concept .. Had Israel made it's homeland in East Afica as was once proposed would (some) Muslims still hate the Jews or would that need no longer have arisen ? ..

would we now have Ugandan terrorist groups running around the place in a bid to secure their homeland from Jewish Settlements ?

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Militarily, Israel lack the capacity to strike a death blow to Iran’s nuclear project

to my mind it sounds like Israel using the threat of attack on Iran as an effort to distract the world from the international pressure on Israel to end the Palestinian occupation

but I always was a bit of a conspiracist

I wouldn't bet against it. However, I think Israel's fear of potential Iranian nuclear capabilities is very real. And understandibly so. I must emphasize that I haven't a single friendly word to say about Israel's role in the region but if Iran were to get access to the big bomb Israel's ability to get what they want is greatly diminished.

What that means is that as someone who believes that Palestine belongs to the Palestinians and that Israel are and have always been acting illegally, I should be hoping that Iran gets the bomb. That makes me a bit uneasy. I am anyway far more worried about the fact that Pakistan already have the bomb than I am scared of Iran getting it.

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Well the reports out and as expected, it's not good.

The Russians seem to be acting as the balance to keeping the lid on actions that the EU would like - further sanctions, which would just be another step to conflict.

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How longs a piece of string? One nuclear missile is not like another. The delivery system the North Koreans have developed can barely, just, hit Alaska, apparently. The US has missiles capable of striking pretty much anywhere.

It all comes down to what they develop. Chances are it'll be a fairly short range missile but any range is too far for the damage it's very existance would do to that region, which then would shake around the world instantly.

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  • 2 months later...

An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in a bombing today. Reports suggest a motorbike drew up along side his car and attached a bomb to it.

This is just the latest thing to hit the nuclear ambition of Iran - recently there have been 2 explosions at it's facilities, one of which was quite large and killed a number of people, and a virus was set on it's computer system a while back.

How much more does Iran accept before it retaliates I wonder.

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An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in a bombing today. Reports suggest a motorbike drew up along side his car and attached a bomb to it.

the last nuclear scientist that was killed by the US / Israel (who I assume are being blamed for this one by the Iranians) turned out to have been killed for domestic political reasons and an Iranian man was sentenced to death for it in the end

Probably be used as propaganda by the Iranian Govt. though to stir things up without any real investigation taking place

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It's looking dangerously close that Iran is next on the Anglo-American hit list - US conspiracy websites are full of all the evidence

of the build up

How can anyone afford to be fighting another war? The UK is nigh on bankrupt & the US not far behind. Course we ALL know

it's all about the Oil & the Dollar!

How dare Iran & Russia stop dealing in Dollars.

Anyone else noticed all these places where they've been planning to phase out the dollar in favour of the Gold standard

are being polished off speedily!

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Iran is a country of 75 million people with a high GDP that has been funneled into building a modern military. Not only are they well supplied by the Russians but they have the capabilities to manufacture their own military hardware. They have advanced radar and air defenses, Chinese tanks, Russian built submarines. They have the 8th largest active army in the world with the 6th largest reserve force.

A war against Iran without Russian backing would make the wars in both Afganistan and Iraq look like a bit of mild sparing.

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