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hogso

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I think you'll be wrong on that point - Microsoft won't go completely download, it'll have an optical drive. Too many people would be unable or unprepared to go fully download, and too much of their potential market isn't going to be in the position to buy into a completely digital market. There will still be boxes on shelves in retail for titles.

I completely agree, as said, though, that they will allow those that wish to to go fully digital and they'll heavily push the format, on the back of the success of Live.

Many people made your argument when Sky launched. Too many people would be unable or unprepared to have it. Then they thought of one single gimmick and the rest is history. It didn't require huge marketing, just the right idea at the right time. I'm not suggesting it's the correct thing for MS to do. They've rarely got anything right when they try to innovate.

Why would Microsoft care about shelves in supermarkets? They don't own supermarkets. Windows is all about selling licences nowadays, not shifting boxes. They could still sell unlock codes as boxed items if they thought it was an issue. Make them collectibles if you want to create a secondary market.

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i agree with no halo 5, expect a fair few over lapping games such as star wars 1313, grid 2 etc which developers are already saying are being watered down for current gen consoles, maybe bungie going with destiny but the black tusk studios "halo beater" is more likely to be a new launch IP

sony have already announced they are looking at blocking the 2nd hand market and it didnt go down to well (im sure gamestop in yank land blamed a drop in share price on it) and im pretty sure id read somewhere that they had agreed with sony about putting in a blu ray drive, seems pretty pointless doing that if they were going completely digital on the games

sony have also announced that they are in talks to start "sony tv" which i think will be similar to lovefilm / netflix, will be interesting to see if MS try and do something similar, sony might have more sucess due to their movie studio (which itself will be interesting, do they remove all their content from other services and make it exclusive to theirs?)

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But I struggle to stream video sometimes, particularly at HD quality (certainly when it's 1080p). I also know plenty of other people in various locations that also have this issue. We all live in villages/rural towns, and while I assume that within ten years or so this may no longer be a problem, will there not be even higher resolutions that would require even better internet connections? Things like my halls of residence at uni also spring to mind, where lots of people had consoles, but the wireless connection we all shared certainly wasn't up to much and was particularly slow - not to mention the restrictions placed on what we could actually do online. Also, what about other places in the world where they sell plenty of games but are still struggling to get decent internet speeds?

You need 4.8Mb/s to stream 1080p24. The UK government has committed that 90% of the population will have 24Mb/s available by 2015. By the same time all

the population will have access to 2Mb/s. Very few games will need 1080p24 and will quite happily run at lower resolutions if that's all that's available. Do you think games developers will plan for the 10% or the 90%?

This is a real time analysis of broadband speeds worldwide. We are discussing a time scale 5-6 years away for a further console generation, what will these figures look like then?

People have to pay for their education nowadays. If the connectivity provided by halls is not up to scratch, it'll get upgraded or people will choose a different educational supplier (I didn't go to uni to play games). I suspect in 5-6 years we'll be seeing a lot more wireless bandwidth choices, particularly as mesh networks become commonplace.

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Many people made your argument when Sky launched. Too many people would be unable or unprepared to have it. Then they thought of one single gimmick and the rest is history. It didn't require huge marketing, just the right idea at the right time. I'm not suggesting it's the correct thing for MS to do. They've rarely got anything right when they try to innovate.

Why would Microsoft care about shelves in supermarkets? They don't own supermarkets. Windows is all about selling licences nowadays, not shifting boxes. They could still sell unlock codes as boxed items if they thought it was an issue. Make them collectibles if you want to create a secondary market.

They don't care about boxes on supermarket shelves. They care about selling shit.

They'll sell more (of everything) at this moment in time, if they have a physical retail copy of games on shelves. They would make less money if they went fully download, so it will not happen. They will cut down their market if they force download only titles on customers.

So instead they will maintain a physical media line, whilst introducing customers far more heavily into downloads. I suspect they will pack in a download code for something to introduce a greater market to Live, by giving them something they will want as opposed to marketing the service as they do now, on multiplayer gaming and access to services that most customers already have some form of access to. The system will certainly come with a next gen Kinect, I would not be surprised to see a Kinect Sports disc in the box with what accounts to a day and date considerable DLC add on code as that customers introduction to downloads.

They will heavily push downloads, the odd minor exclusive will become the norm (free map dlc for download copies for instance, or exclusive add on content, later on i expect full game exclusives but not something like Halo, more like a Banjo game). But there will be discs on shelves come its release.

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I don't really understand your argument.

At present MS licence the packaging and physical media is the only way to get content onto consoles. If they decided that the next generation will have no disc, they do not have to pay for physical packaging, mastering, pressing, distribution and stocking. They would control all distribution and would charge an app store type mark-up on everything they sell. They can offer the same titles electronically much cheaper to the end customer while increasing their margins.

People will still buy the console because they had the last one and will want the next gen of all their games.

This is how Microsoft are thinking, I can pretty much assure you of that. They may have a sudden stroke of sanity, but it's not very likely.

NB. I am not saying this is the right thing to do, nor is it what I'd do. This is what I think MS will do.

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My argument is simple.

Microsoft hasn't convinced a very, very large number of its customers to connect their console to the net or to pay for Live. They won't sell a product that only allows for purchasers to download titles, a considerable part of their market either do not want to connect their console to the net, or are unable to. Thus, the console will feature physical media for games. That immediately maximises their market and they can push downloads and further net services to that audience and win them over that way.

I'd stake considerable sums of money on the console having physical media. I understand your argument entirely and Microsoft certainly would love to not have to produce physical media, but I think they understand the market won't buy that yet and that its in their interest to maximise that market to continue physical media releases.

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The new console will definitely have a way of playing discs/blu-rays. They'd lose so much of the market without it initially. It wouldn't surprise me if they then pushed for everything to go digital, then maybe after a few years they would bring out a "slim line" console which doesn't have the capabilities of using a disc.

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We'll see. No-one needed Windows8 and it's piss poor usability. Microsoft still launched it. Before Microsoft launched Xbox, no-one had a Microsoft console. They see themselves as game changers.

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I just can't see the new machine not having an optical disc drive. Too many people out there without the required connection to make online only work, especially in America.

I just can't see the new machine not having an optical disc drive. Too many people out there without the required connection to make online only work, especially in America.

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I just can't see the new machine not having an optical disc drive. Too many people out there without the required connection to make online only work, especially in America.

I just can't see the new machine not having an optical disc drive. Too many people out there without the required connection to make online only work, especially in America.

Exactly.

Microsoft know that there simply isn't a big enough market to really make money selling a console that is all download at this moment in time, so they will persist with physical media.

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One thing I will say is much like the 360 is a very different beast now to how it was at launch even though it is essentially the same hardware, it wouldn't surprise me if Microsoft released a download only version of the new Xbox in three or four years time. I also think that a lot of games on the new Xbox will be available for download on the same day as they are launched in shops, you will probably even be able to pre download stuff if you pre order it and have it unlock at midnight. Microsoft will definitely push digital distribution as hard as they can on the 720 (or whatever they decide to call it) but they will need to cater to the widest possible audience, so an optical disc drive is needed too, but I dare say there will be a significant number of people who never use it.

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Even if 343 have been working on it before they've launched 4 it's still a big ask to turn around a major title on new hardware only a year after your last release, especially as 343 is still a young studio

i know for a fact they've been working on all 3 concurrently from the start

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What did the 360 launch with? Were there no major titles then?

EDIT: After a quick google it appears it launched with very little. I remember owning Perfect Dark Zero which was a launch title, and it was horrific.

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The last console to launch with a new major franchise release was the Dreamcast I think. It just doesn't happen anymore.

It's kinda disappointing, but it makes sense for manufacturers. Your tent pole titles you want to release when there is an established user base, for a start, and the difference to sales numbers of a new console release a big franchise release is going to make are negligible.

I think the only chance this has of releasing with one of Microsoft's big franchises is if they go cross gen with a title (release a 360 and next gen edition of something at the same time, as happened with the 360 release for third party titles, Gun for instance) or if theyve been quietly working on a side release to a franchise (like GOW: Judgement is a side story to the main Gears releases). Or maybe a re-release, maybe, an up-conversion of a classic.

But yeah - I'll be gobsmacked to see a Halo 5 launch title release.

Edited by Chindie
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No-one has made an argument to change my mind. I don't think that there will be an optical drive in the console. If MS feels your fears are justified, they make an optical drive add-on and charge far more for games sold on physical media/ They'll blame this on the piracy aspect while hiding that the real reason is to stop the second hand market.

I hope that when the downloads / lock down / online only registration happens that the media ask how the games industry will pass on the billions of pounds it will be saving without piracy. Unless they were lying about that.

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Personally, particularly if the next Xbox were to be released this year, I'd be shocked if the standard version were released without a disc drive. However, I recognise that limpid probably has more knowledge in this kind of area than me, so I wouldn't bet on it either way!

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