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lapal_fan

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In my experience any lay persons analysis of why a stock might move is usually either incorrect or already priced in.

s/lay persons/nearly anyone's (lay or professional/

On trading costs: Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth (every study I've seen, by the way, reports the same phenomena with respect to position turnover when it comes to professional money managers: turnover is negatively correlated with beating the market net of transaction costs)

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i'd sell any spare gold now....

i think once the USA agrees to raise the debt-celing, the price of gold will fall.

(of course, if the USA defaults, then price of gold may double, but i think the chance of them defaulting is 0.000001%)

Gold still climbing....

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Don't buy anything until the US raises it's debt ceiling. The deadline is August 2nd and it's dragging on, the closer we get to that deadline the more jittery the market will get and the higher the odds that prices will plummet.

Ding Ding. On the nose. With so much bad news around the corner in the US and the Euro, the markets are bound to lose confidence and correct downwards. Its just a matter of time. Wait for it to happen then go in.

Is self quoting acceptable?

Now that its crashed is time to go in. There's a good 20% to be had in the next 12 months, although it will be a rocky ride.

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Now that its crashed is time to go in. There's a good 20% to be had in the next 12 months, although it will be a rocky ride.

Perhaps, perhaps not.

Why do you think the current level is an under valuation?

The only real argument I have seen for it being so (rather than the argument: this is a crash it's bound to bounce back) is that the outlook of a return to recession in the short term (and beyond that long term low growth) is wrong. I haven't seen those same people argue why bond yields for the US, the UK, Japan and so on are so low..

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I have shares in Barclays. Because I'm an employee, every month money goes out of my payslip into shares, which I don't get taxed on. Barclays match £600 a year, so even if the price does drop I should still come out on top (unless it drops drastically).

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i'd sell any spare gold now....

i think once the USA agrees to raise the debt-celing, the price of gold will fall.

(of course, if the USA defaults, then price of gold may double, but i think the chance of them defaulting is 0.000001%)

Gold still climbing....

Gold has always and will always be a good hedge when markets are volatile.

Until the global economy gets to grips fully with debt, then we can expect to see volatility, therefore a portion of precious metals in any portfolio is a good idea.

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My Standard Life shares have bounced back.

bought £6000 worth a couple of years ago, now they are worth £6000 again.

and my Lloyds shares are still making a big loss - bought £4000 worth, now worth £3000.

need it get back to 45p to break even.

i also have lloyds shares at 43p and then last week at 26p. i work with lloyds on a daily basis and strongly believe theyll be up over that in the early part of next year.

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  • 2 months later...
Don't buy anything until the US raises it's debt ceiling. The deadline is August 2nd and it's dragging on, the closer we get to that deadline the more jittery the market will get and the higher the odds that prices will plummet.

Ding Ding. On the nose. With so much bad news around the corner in the US and the Euro, the markets are bound to lose confidence and correct downwards. Its just a matter of time. Wait for it to happen then go in.

Now that its crashed is time to go in. There's a good 20% to be had in the next 12 months, although it will be a rocky ride.

Perhaps, perhaps not.

Why do you think the current level is an under valuation?

The only real argument I have seen for it being so (rather than the argument: this is a crash it's bound to bounce back) is that the outlook of a return to recession in the short term (and beyond that long term low growth) is wrong. I haven't seen those same people argue why bond yields for the US, the UK, Japan and so on are so low..

Quite a lot quicker than I hoped for. The Footise dropped to 5000 when I said it was time to go in (14th July). I bought the L+G 100 tracker at a price of 96.1p/unit and today with the footise at 5700 the units are 114. Time to take a nifty 18% next week I think, and wait for the next panic to bomb it out again. Like Moody's downgrading spanish debt again, for instance.

That was 18% in about 15 weeks. Did anyone else ride this wave?

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Kicking myself I never invested in HSBC shares.. they were 466p on 4th October.. was going to put £10k into them but decided against it.. they're 565p today :(

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Back Hurricane Fly to with the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham 2011. Better bet than any stock. Horse is unbeatable if turning up.

See, what worries me about this is that you were one of those quants, the people on whose predictions billions were wagered.

I have an uneasy feeling that this post illustrates that instead of being based on close analysis of company results and informed assessment of the market, it all a bit of bloody guesswork, like it always was.

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Back Hurricane Fly to with the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham 2011. Better bet than any stock. Horse is unbeatable if turning up.

See, what worries me about this is that you were one of those quants, the people on whose predictions billions were wagered.

I have an uneasy feeling that this post illustrates that instead of being based on close analysis of company results and informed assessment of the market, it all a bit of bloody guesswork, like it always was.

Ah but to the contrary. I only bet in my area of expertise and my area is National Hunt Racing. I follow it closely, have for years and keep a record of every bet placed plus monthly p/l. I review my bets monthly so as to learn from my mistakes.

To play in the stock market would be to gamble in an area where the advantage is not on my side, it would be more speculation than anything.

The horse I mentioned, Hurricane Fly, he is my avatar and he is also a major reason why I type this post from Cordoba Argentina and not Dublin Ireland for my knowledge of this horse (among others) and constant backing of him has resulted a huge financial gain on my behalf. He has won 10 of the 11 races I have bet on him. He has yielded many multiples return on the investment.

Also my former job was as a Quant Risk Analyst working on project work. I had no input into trading decisions and my former division never posted an anual loss, ever. So I think the area of risk where I worked was very effective. So don´t tar all with one brush.

Plus I work(ed) to live, not lived to work. It was just a job, that is why I´m traveling the world. Now we have an Asado (bbq) tonight on the roof, plenty of free wine, it´s sunny outside.

Hurricane Fly, as ever the little hero I am eternally in your debt. Chao Amigo

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Back Hurricane Fly to with the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham 2011. Better bet than any stock. Horse is unbeatable if turning up.

See, what worries me about this is that you were one of those quants, the people on whose predictions billions were wagered.

I have an uneasy feeling that this post illustrates that instead of being based on close analysis of company results and informed assessment of the market, it all a bit of bloody guesswork, like it always was.

Ah but to the contrary. I only bet in my area of expertise and my area is National Hunt Racing. I follow it closely, have for years and keep a record of every bet placed plus monthly p/l. I review my bets monthly so as to learn from my mistakes.

To play in the stock market would be to gamble in an area where the advantage is not on my side, it would be more speculation than anything.

The horse I mentioned, Hurricane Fly, he is my avatar and he is also a major reason why I type this post from Cordoba Argentina and not Dublin Ireland for my knowledge of this horse (among others) and constant backing of him has resulted a huge financial gain on my behalf. He has won 10 of the 11 races I have bet on him. He has yielded many multiples return on the investment.

Also my former job was as a Quant Risk Analyst working on project work. I had no input into trading decisions and my former division never posted an anual loss, ever. So I think the area of risk where I worked was very effective. So don´t tar all with one brush.

Plus I work(ed) to live, not lived to work. It was just a job, that is why I´m traveling the world. Now we have an Asado (bbq) tonight on the roof, plenty of free wine, it´s sunny outside.

Hurricane Fly, as ever the little hero I am eternally in your debt. Chao Amigo

OK, I'll bet.

Obviously, if it loses, I'll sue.

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Cool by me amigo. Horse ain´t gonna lose, he´s the second coming. :notworthy:

I´m gonna rewatch last seasons races now, I never get tired of watching them. What a day at Cheltenham that was, man I was delerious with joy at the track that day. Ah good times. Good times. :nod:

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The horse I mentioned, Hurricane Fly, he is my avatar and he is also a major reason why I type this post from Cordoba Argentina and not Dublin Ireland for my knowledge of this horse (among others) and constant backing of him has resulted a huge financial gain on my behalf. He has won 10 of the 11 races I have bet on him. He has yielded many multiples return on the investment.

Your confidence in backing him (with what would have needed to be large amounts each time, I guess) is to be appreciated but Hurricane Fly was/is hardly a secret in the racing world, is it?

When did you stop backing Kauto? :P

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Back Hurricane Fly to with the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham 2011. Better bet than any stock. Horse is unbeatable if turning up.

This is perhaps the worst tip ever....you are not going to find many bookies who will take that bet now!

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The horse I mentioned, Hurricane Fly, he is my avatar and he is also a major reason why I type this post from Cordoba Argentina and not Dublin Ireland for my knowledge of this horse (among others) and constant backing of him has resulted a huge financial gain on my behalf. He has won 10 of the 11 races I have bet on him. He has yielded many multiples return on the investment.

Your confidence in backing him (with what would have needed to be large amounts each time, I guess) is to be appreciated but Hurricane Fly was/is hardly a secret in the racing world, is it?

When did you stop backing Kauto? :P

Ah his greatness Kauto Star. Never see his like again in my life. Best chaser ever. I had him each way in the gold cup. Last time I'll ever back him. He's done now, it's all about Long Run now.

As for Hurricane yeah the cat is out of the bag now, but it took that champion hurdle win for people to understand, to get what I saw in him as a novice hurdler at leopardstown in 2008. He's rather special. To have followed him from then to now, man that's been a pleasure and a privilege. He's a wee hero. He's Hurricane Fly.

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Back Hurricane Fly to with the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham 2011. Better bet than any stock. Horse is unbeatable if turning up.

This is perhaps the worst tip ever....you are not going to find many bookies who will take that bet now!

Ah the odds will be a bit shit but that's because he's the champ. But yeah you can back him no problem. It's the champion hurdle after all.,

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