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The Next Villa Manager Part 3


bickster

Who do you want as the next Villa manager  

654 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you want as the next Villa manager

    • Moyes
      305
    • Benitez
      86
    • McClaren
      15
    • Martinez
      41
    • Hughes
      54
    • Poyet
      4
    • Coyle
      23
    • Rijkaard
      87
    • Other (Please State)
      39


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Ok, I appear to be inundated by PM's asking how to lay Mcleish... as such I have started a thread in the Off Topic section where I will answer questions if you have any rather than via PM's:

BetFair Laying

Question here....so its allowing me to "Lay" against every manager going....so I put £10 against every manager going right, I'm guarenteed quids in yeah?

It doesnt put them into no accumulator or something stupid though?

You are getting into the finites of attempting to make money out of betting.

Say it is a tennis match, and there are two results possible... if both had odds of evens, then you could bet on both of them and not loose anything, and not win anything either.

If both had odds of 2/1 then you could back them both and be guaranteed money (otherwise known as arbitrage).

If both had odds of 10/11 then you could back them both and be guaranteed to loose.

If you open the results up from two, as above, to 20 as in the next Villa manager race, then yes you could lay them all and make a profit IF the odds were in your favour. Currently on Betfair the book is sitting at 77.8%, which means if you lay them all, you are guaranteed to loose money, and a lot of money at that. If the book goes over 100% than you can lay them all and win - I guarantee this will not happen on the next manager race.

How bookies make money, is by taking all the available information (they have seriously massive databases) and calculating an exact odd for what they think is going to be the outcome (and they will roughly be right). They will then reduce that odd by about 7 or 8%, which is basically their profit margin.

For you to beat the bookies long term, you have to only bet on outcomes where the bookie has got their odds wrong by over 7 or 8% and believe me, this is no easy task.

If you use BetFair, you will get better odds than at your traditional bookmakers, however they take 5% of your winnings... so that brings the odds down a little bit...

As they say, gambling is for mugs. :)

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Ok, I appear to be inundated by PM's asking how to lay Mcleish... as such I have started a thread in the Off Topic section where I will answer questions if you have any rather than via PM's:

BetFair Laying

Question here....so its allowing me to "Lay" against every manager going....so I put £10 against every manager going right, I'm guarenteed quids in yeah?

It doesnt put them into no accumulator or something stupid though?

No.

Your maximum return will be number of managers x 10, whereas your maximum liability will be the longest odds x 10.

If you look at the book % shown it's around 77%, that means that if you laid the entire market your expected return is 77% of your total stake.

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Right, sorry to post this in this thread but I've read teh two above posts and still dont quite get it.

If I do the following :-

Current Odds bets

Lay (Bet against)

Backer's

Odds

Backer's

Stake

Payout

Liability

Alex McLeish

£205.00

You are betting AGAINST Alex McLeish to win.

Mark Hughes

£62.00

You are betting AGAINST Mark Hughes to win.

Owen Coyle

£240.00

You are betting AGAINST Owen Coyle to win.

Gus Poyet

£37.00

You are betting AGAINST Gus Poyet to win.

Simon Grayson

£338.00

You are betting AGAINST Simon Grayson to win.

Rafael Benitez

£320.00

You are betting AGAINST Rafael Benitez to win.

Steve McClaren

£220.00

You are betting AGAINST Steve McClaren to win.

Claudio Ranieri

£140.00

You are betting AGAINST Claudio Ranieri to win.

Chris Hughton

£110.00

You are betting AGAINST Chris Hughton to win.

Your total liability on these bets:£316.00

Then surely all but 1 of those managers arnt not going to get the job so I'll get paid out the "payout" column wchih totals aroudn £2000 for a liability of £316?

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MYSTERYMAN

parks player

Posts: 76

Re: Who Should be Aston Villa Manager ? Now with new, revised poll

« Reply #4897 on: Today at 02:34:30 PM »What is Slaven Billic up to these days ?

Is that cryptic?

Could be Billic to Everton?

Could be Everton.

I rate Bilic to be honest. Good upcoming manager, but would we want him here? Same catagory as RM? Interesting.

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I dont think Randies jet carries enough fuel for a non-stop jaunt to Barbados. The usual route would be across to Newfoundland, then hence south through New York to Florida.

It does, but if it didn't, and he wanted to go to Barbados, then they would just refuel at Gander or similar. John de Mol (Big Brother) has a similar jet, and he is always flying non-stop to Bridgetown.

The Trees said he left for the States on Friday.
That's 100% correct.

The thing is, where did his jet go once it entered US airspace.....

I didn't see the flight plan, but I suspect East Hampton, NY, which is home base.

BTW, the bloke who (wrongly) informed Macca that it had gone to Madrid put a private message around a few people saying that he wouldn't advise origins or destinations, because Mr Lerner does not want them revealed.

This has been in force since the takeover as the press constantly hounded the handling agent at BHX.

As we have bookies to fleece, my philosophy remains that I will not advise times at all, and destinations after the fact (flight completed), thus respecting the privacy and security of the individuals, which is how it was played during the takeover and the John Carew signing.

But then I may not hear anything.....but if I do, hopefully the shears will come out again

:winkold:

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No, the payout isn't what you can win.

The payout is the total money on the bet, so it's the sum of all your liabilities + the opposing bets. The only columns you care about are stake and liability.

If all of those are lays of £10 stakes you'll only win £80, but your biggest liability is £316, potentially leaving you £236 out of pocket. There's only 2 managers there where them getting the job won't leave you out of pocket.

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Right, sorry to post this in this thread but I've read teh two above posts and still dont quite get it.

If I do the following :-

Current Odds bets

Lay (Bet against)

Backer's

Odds

Backer's

Stake

Payout

Liability

Alex McLeish

£205.00

You are betting AGAINST Alex McLeish to win.

Mark Hughes

£62.00

You are betting AGAINST Mark Hughes to win.

Owen Coyle

£240.00

You are betting AGAINST Owen Coyle to win.

Gus Poyet

£37.00

You are betting AGAINST Gus Poyet to win.

Simon Grayson

£338.00

You are betting AGAINST Simon Grayson to win.

Rafael Benitez

£320.00

You are betting AGAINST Rafael Benitez to win.

Steve McClaren

£220.00

You are betting AGAINST Steve McClaren to win.

Claudio Ranieri

£140.00

You are betting AGAINST Claudio Ranieri to win.

Chris Hughton

£110.00

You are betting AGAINST Chris Hughton to win.

Your total liability on these bets:£316.00

Then surely all but 1 of those managers arnt not going to get the job so I'll get paid out the "payout" column wchih totals aroudn £2000 for a liability of £316?

Basically, you're getting confused by the odds. Whatever you lay (for example £10) is matched by someone else ad the set odds. So, if you lay Moyes at £10, and the odds of this are 12.0 (as they have been recently), then you have to pay out at odds of 12.0 if he is appointed. This is your liability, in this case £110. However, if Moyes doesn't become manager, you win the other guy's £10.

So basically, you're acting as the bookmaker. You could win £10, and you could do this for several managers, but whichever one is appointed, you must pay out at the given odds.

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MYSTERYMAN

parks player

Posts: 76

Re: Who Should be Aston Villa Manager ? Now with new, revised poll

« Reply #4897 on: Today at 02:34:30 PM »What is Slaven Billic up to these days ?

Is that cryptic?

Could be Billic to Everton?

An interesting twist... but I'd of thought we would of heard Moyes being

interviewed for Villa job before Billic being sounded out for Everton

replacement.

Everton might want a replacement lined up before letting DM go.

If so, I hope the Everton board act quicker than Randy... not because Randy is taking his time, but simply because if we wait for them to find a manager before naming our manager Randy might be assassinated by AstonVilla10.

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I didn't see the flight plan, but I suspect East Hampton, NY, which is home base.

Rather than him flying all the way over to East Hampton to Homebase, wouldn't it be cheaper and quicker for him to go to his local B&Q instead?

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Just to change up the topic a little bit, all the ITK stuff and betting is getting a bit boring. Thinking back to that clown Durham on Talksport yesterday, he was going on about managers such as Steve Coppell being suitable to come in and manage us. Now I have nothing against him personally, but really? We're at that sort of a level to look at someone like Coppell, who's retired?! Can't remember the other names he was throwing out, but it was just laced with so much bitterness and that smarmy bastard tone in his voice. I dont really have an end point to make, just throwing it in here.

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