tonyh29 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 The Chinese have built an airport near one of the oilfields if I recall and have a lot of the oil sowen up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Just so I have it right in my head, we believe that IS(IS) are such a threat to us (in the UK/the west) that we're happy to fall in with Putin in support of Assad?Not sure that's going to do much to address problems with Syrian refugees (though they'll just be escaping the one group of murderous bastards rather than the two) or if it will do anything to address the accusation that the west couldn't give a shit about brutal and authoritarian regimes as long as they're expediently useful.That's before one gets on to the problems of the authoritarian, autocratic Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikantcpell Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Very interesting. Russia could basically walk into Iraq and take control of the whole show. The whole show other than the massive US bases that protect the gas and oil pipelines and secure the money that comes from them. The rest of it is worth nothing - other than as a political bargaining chip. Source?I don't have one that I had in mind - I was thinking of the huge embassy and a map I'd seen just after the second war with a line of bases that followed a recently built oil line.I've had a look and it's difficult to find anything that makes sense - there's a whole mass of stuff about bases in the war, but not much afterward. So, I dunno. I could be wrong and my assumption is a few years out of date.Oddly, there do seem to be a few stories suggesting that China controls most of the oil in Iraq. It wouldnt surprise me at all if you were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted September 27, 2015 Moderator Share Posted September 27, 2015 Just so I have it right in my head, we believe that IS(IS) are such a threat to us (in the UK/the west) that we're happy to fall in with Putin in support of Assad?Not sure that's going to do much to address problems with Syrian refugees (though they'll just be escaping the one group of murderous bastards rather than the two) or if it will do anything to address the accusation that the west couldn't give a shit about brutal and authoritarian regimes as long as they're expediently useful.That's before one gets on to the problems of the authoritarian, autocratic Putin.Not quite sure what you mean by "we", do you mean the West, the Uk Government, the people posting in this thread? I'm not sure I see much if any indiction that the West or any western nation is "happy to fall in with Putin in support of Assad". Despite the overtures from Putin, there is clearly no appetite to work in collaboration with Russia and even less to be seen supporting Assad.In terms of this thread I'm still not sure I see people expressing that sort of view. Some poster, myself included agree with what Putin has said but the irony of his words aren't lost on us neither is the inherent hypocrisy of the man given events in Ukraine. But broadly speaking what he has said in relation to ISIS is right or at least I believe it to be. But that is very very different from thinking we should fall in with him and help prop up Assad.Anyway... in other developments there are supposed to be 60 SAS troops on the hunt for chemical weapons stores in Northern Iraq. You wouldn't want to bump into them on a cold night in the dessert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC_Hitz Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'd hate to see Andy McNab in my spotted dick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted September 28, 2015 Moderator Share Posted September 28, 2015 Latest development, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Russia joining forces to share information and work together against ISIS.Things just got very serious for ISIS and very difficult for the other opposition fighters in Syria backed by the West and for the West itself.The West faces the prospect of having to run concurrent operations with Russia while not communicating or working in collaboration with them.On the one had I'm sure the West is pleased about the helping hand, on the other its a complete nightmare for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Just so I have it right in my head, we believe that IS(IS) are such a threat to us (in the UK/the west) that we're happy to fall in with Putin in support of Assad?Not sure that's going to do much to address problems with Syrian refugees (though they'll just be escaping the one group of murderous bastards rather than the two) or if it will do anything to address the accusation that the west couldn't give a shit about brutal and authoritarian regimes as long as they're expediently useful.That's before one gets on to the problems of the authoritarian, autocratic Putin.Russia and America seem to have had up to now, the exact opposite view to each other.America and allies had the idea that a regime change in Iraq and Syria would facilitate the arrival of a more moderate democratic system, but it has not happened.Putin obviously believes that stability under an authoritarian autocratic leader is a far better solution, even if freedoms and civil rights are restricted.The present situation suggests that cheering on the Arab spring was probably naive and irresponsible.I suspect that America and their allies are moving towards Putin's view rather than the other way round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I suspect that America and their allies are moving towards Putin's view rather than the other way round.I share your suspicions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 It really is fascinating stuff. It's like a game of Risk, but for slightly higher stakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted September 28, 2015 Moderator Share Posted September 28, 2015 America and allies had the idea that a regime change in Iraq and Syria would facilitate the arrival of a more moderate democratic system, but it has not happened.Putin obviously believes that stability under an authoritarian autocratic leader is a far better solution, even if freedoms and civil rights are restricted.I think that the views of both Putin and the Americans and allies are exactly the same on this one - pliant, fake democracy that does as it's told or a spoilt autocrat who takes the money and passes on the countries natural resources are both fine - functioning democracies in which the people of the nations of the middle east might somehow have a say or benefit from their massive natural resources to our detriment - that's the one that no one wants - we (the US and its satellites) have overthrown dozens of fledgling democracies since the second world war and I see no reason for us to stop now.The only difference between Putin and us on this one is who we want to be the beneficiaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 America and allies had the idea that a regime change in Iraq and Syria would facilitate the arrival of a more moderate democratic system, but it has not happened.Putin obviously believes that stability under an authoritarian autocratic leader is a far better solution, even if freedoms and civil rights are restricted.I think that the views of both Putin and the Americans and allies are exactly the same on this one - pliant, fake democracy that does as it's told or a spoilt autocrat who takes the money and passes on the countries natural resources are both fine - functioning democracies in which the people of the nations of the middle east might somehow have a say or benefit from their massive natural resources to our detriment - that's the one that no one wants - we (the US and its satellites) have overthrown dozens of fledgling democracies since the second world war and I see no reason for us to stop now.The only difference between Putin and us on this one is who we want to be the beneficiaries.I kind of think that the 1st world has reached the conclusion that 19th Century imperialists might have been c**** but they were probably right about the difficulties of bringing liberal democracy to places where they don't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LockStockVilla Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the West/US decided to change it's tune a bit and went down the path of partnering with Putin and company does this run the risk of hugely alienating/radicalizing the various "moderate" factions in Syria opposed to Assad and ISIS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It really is fascinating stuff. It's like a game of Risk, but for slightly higher stakes.yes, you are right.Whose turn is it now, and does he have cards to turn in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikantcpell Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Where is AWOL? i havent seen him on here for some time, maybe he has been beheaded by Isis, or even worse, joined them?? AWOL@ if you are reading this, What are your thoughts about Russia teaming up with the West to fight Isis ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 He's AWOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted September 29, 2015 Moderator Share Posted September 29, 2015 I did wonder that, me and the other lefties have been allowed to roam unchecked for far too long! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Where is AWOL? i havent seen him on here for some time, maybe he has been beheaded by Isis, or even worse, joined them?? AWOL@ if you are reading this, What are your thoughts about Russia teaming up with the West to fight Isis ? Sorry, been a bit busy. In short it's not likely to happen. US / Russia relations are being seen by both sides as a zero sum game at the moment. Putin hasn't launched some genius masterstroke he's just filled the vacuum created when the US vacated the field. The new security block Russia is forming with the Shia controlled capitals (Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus) at a cost of a few 100 million will trump the 2 trillion invested into Iraq by the US since 2003. It is the starkest example of strategic failure it's possible to get and Obama has to carry the can for it. Another not insignificant benefit of the Syria deployment for Putin is the grudging respect it will earn him in the Eastern Europe states that are most affected by and resistant to the current migration crisis that is still just warming up. That undermines EU unity (a key Kremlin aim) and will help him when the issue of renewing sanctions against Russia comes up again in Brussels - worth noting that levels of separatist violence in Eastern Ukraine have 'coincidentally' fallen off a cliff in the last two weeks... Looking at the current configuration of the Russian deployment which is mostly air power with some force protection assets to defend the new bases, Russia isn't yet lining up to march on Raqqa. In truth they probably don't need to though, securing the Assad regime in a rump Alawite state along the Med' will give them what they want, secure and permanent naval basing facilities, lilypad air basing from which they can project force and as importantly, a central role in any diplomatic engagement by the international community and particularly the West. The message is simple; "Russia is back, we are important and you'd better take notice". Left to their own devices the Gulf States led by Saudi are creating an absolute mess of things and are stoking sectarian fires that will burn out of control. Within the next few years the West will redeploy on a massive scale back into the Middle East because events will compel it. Russia has ruthless strategic interests in acting as it has, if / /when Saudi and the rest of the region falls over (and I'd give it two years as things are now) the West will have to act in the same way to secure the energy supplies required by the global economy. It's going to be big and messy and most analysts in the region are certain it's coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 (edited) Where is AWOL? i havent seen him on here for some time, maybe he has been beheaded by Isis, or even worse, joined them?? AWOL@ if you are reading this, What are your thoughts about Russia teaming up with the West to fight Isis ? Sorry, been a bit busy. In short it's not likely to happen. US / Russia relations are being seen by both sides as a zero sum game at the moment. Putin hasn't launched some genius masterstroke he's just filled the vacuum created when the US vacated the field. The new security block Russia is forming with the Shia controlled capitals (Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus) at a cost of a few 100 million will trump the 2 trillion invested into Iraq by the US since 2003. It is the starkest example of strategic failure it's possible to get and Obama has to carry the can for it. Another not insignificant benefit of the Syria deployment for Putin is the grudging respect it will earn him in the Eastern Europe states that are most affected by and resistant to the current migration crisis that is still just warming up. That undermines EU unity (a key Kremlin aim) and will help him when the issue of renewing sanctions against Russia comes up again in Brussels - worth noting that levels of separatist violence in Eastern Ukraine have 'coincidentally' fallen off a cliff in the last two weeks... Looking at the current configuration of the Russian deployment which is mostly air power with some force protection assets to defend the new bases, Russia isn't yet lining up to march on Raqqa. In truth they probably don't need to though, securing the Assad regime in a rump Alawite state along the Med' will give them what they want, secure and permanent naval basing facilities, lilypad air basing from which they can project force and as importantly, a central role in any diplomatic engagement by the international community and particularly the West. The message is simple; "Russia is back, we are important and you'd better take notice". Left to their own devices the Gulf States led by Saudi are creating an absolute mess of things and are stoking sectarian fires that will burn out of control. Within the next few years the West will redeploy on a massive scale back into the Middle East because events will compel it. Russia has ruthless strategic interests in acting as it has, if / /when Saudi and the rest of the region falls over (and I'd give it two years as things are now) the West will have to act in the same way to secure the energy supplies required by the global economy. It's going to be big and messy and most analysts in the region are certain it's coming. Excellent stuff. Sometimes it is uncomfortable to see ones jejune opinions blown out of the water, but it is delightful when it is done this thoroughly. Edited September 30, 2015 by MakemineVanilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm sure AWOL is Solid Snake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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