The Arab Spring and "the War on Terror"

[leviramsey]

What's as prominent as the collapse in traffic is the spike.

[Awol]

When it kicked off five days ago it was essentially leaderless and was a grass roots spontaneous action organised through the internet, facebook, twitter etc - Levi's spike observation. Mohammed El Baradei (former head of the IAEA before Gulf War II) has come back and tried to claim some sort of leadership role in the reform camp, but I'm not convinced many Egyptians find that credible.

Although the attempted green revolution in Iran was brutally put down, it's clear people have picked up on the power of mass communication to orgasnise themsleves and bypass traditional power structures. It raises (imo) some interesting questions about the long term survivability of dictatorial regimes in the face of technological advancement, but also has a direct bearing on the possibilities for the West - hence attempts by Western Governments to gain tighter control of the internet.

It's becoming more difficult to keep people 'dumb' when traditional media no longer has a monopoly on the news agenda and they can communicate directly with each other on mass. The only other ingredient required - as we see in Egypt - is a politically active population.

I think Mubarak is doomed now, the Egyptians won't back down and only massive violence could now prop him up in the short term but would destroy the last vestige of his credibility. He and the rest of the elite will be using this pause to loot as much wealth as possible from the country before fleeing into exile - probably to Saudi.

It's also interesting to note that the main support expressed for him has come from Washington and Riyadh. If that doesn't tell the American people that their Government is in bed with the wrong people I'm not sure what could.

[leviramsey]

Although the attempted green revolution in Iran was brutally put down, it's clear people have picked up on the power of mass communication to orgasnise themsleves and bypass traditional power structures. It raises (imo) some interesting questions about the long term survivability of dictatorial regimes in the face of technological advancement, but also has a direct bearing on the possibilities for the West - hence attempts by Western Governments to gain tighter control of the internet.

From the Technology Liberation Front (as opposed to the Front for Technological Liberation...)

In response to civil unrest, the Egyptian government appears to have ordered service providers to shut down all international connections to the Internet. According to the blog post at the link just above, Egypt’s four main ISPs have cut off their connections to the outside world. Specifically, their BGP routes were withdrawn. An attack on BGP is one of few potential sources of global shock cited by an OECD report I noted recently. The report almost certainly imagined a technical attack by rogue actors but, assuming current reporting to be true, the source of this attack is a government exercising coercion over Internet service providers within its jurisdiction.

That is far from an impossibility in the United States. The U.S. government has proposed both directly and indirectly to centralize control over U.S. Internet service providers. C|Net’s Declan McCullagh reports that an “Internet kill switch” proposal championed by by Sens. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) will be reintroduced in the new Congress very soon. The idea is to give “kill switch” authority to the government for use in responding to some kind of “cyberemergency.” We see here that a government with “kill switch” power will use it when the “emergency” is a challenge to its authority.

When done in good faith, flipping an Internet “kill switch” would be stupid and self-destructive, tantamount to an auto-immune reaction that compounds the damage from a cybersecurity incident. The more likely use of “kill switch” authority would be bad faith, as the Egyptian government illustrates, to suppress speech and assembly rights.

In the person of the Federal Communications Commission, the U.S. government has also proposed to bring Internet service providers under a regulatory umbrella that it could turn to censorship or protest suppression in the future. The intention of its proponents is in no way to give the government this kind of authority, but government power is not always used as intended, and there is plenty of scholarship to show that government agencies use their power to achieve goals that are non-statutory and even unconstitutional.

The D.C. area’s surfeit of recent weather caused the cancellation yesterday of a book event I was to participate in, discussing Evgeny Morozov’s The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom. I don’t know that he makes the case overwhelmingly, but Morozov argues that governments are ably using the Internet to stifle freedom movements.

Events going on here in the United States right now could position the U.S. government to exercise the kind of authority we might look down our noses at Egypt for practicing. The lesson from the Egypt story—what we know of it so far—is that eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.

[peterms]

The point I was making was not one of whether we in the west believed the hype of our own governments (in spreading freedom, &c.) but how quickly that flimsy facade may crumble and how what remains (both the self-interest and the apparent duplicity) may further inflame negative attitudes towards the west.

Here's a comment from just one individual on that point:

We mustn't forget the role of the US and the UK in all of this. The hypocrisy of [President] Obama was amazing; your western capitals have supported this regime from the very beginning – now suddenly everybody is concerned for our rights and economic security. Where were they before?

I'd be amazed if that view isn't pretty widespread. And that comes from someone who says he respects Mubarak, so I assume many stronger views exist.

[peterms]

Can someone explain the perspectives here, Mubarak's government would apppear to be the bad guy, but I'm not sure why - what sort of government is it, what are its faults? The people are rising up, but who are the people, what do they want, what do they believe in?

I thought this article was interesting, again just one person's perspective. She paints a picture of simmering discontent existing for many years, held in check by fear; but now the fear is gone, at least at present.

[OutByEaster?]

Thank you - that's a good read.

[peterms]

Also a live Q&A session taking place now on the Grauniad website.

[trekka]

I daresay a fair amount of the Arab world's leaders are shitting themselves rather more.

I can't see Jordan collapsing, it's pretty stable.

Yep, I agree.

[trekka]

(Hat tip - shamocracy )

Traveshamockery

Chuckle central.

Burglefickle.

That's my new favourite word (2nd being guttersnipe).

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

So, who exactly are in place to take over if they topple the regime?

A lot of suggestions that the Muslim Brotherhood will step in, and they aren't terribly fussed about Democratic values either...plus there is a decent Christian population there too, what will it mean for them?

There also seems to be a case of a division within the army, the high ranking officers seem to be in bed with the president (well, they do hold cabinet positions) but will the man on the street feel the same?

Hm.

Edit: Looks like we can add Sudan to the list now.

[peterms]

Lovely quote from Mubarak. No idea how accurate the translation is.

"I never sought power or influence"

I was just popping down to the shop for some milk and a packet of those digestives, and this crowd of army geezers surrounded me and said, well, you look just the sort to lead us for the next thirty years. Well blow me down, I don't know what you're on about, I said. No, go on, they said, there ain't no-one else will do it, you'd be doing us a favour. Oh all right, I said, and next thing you know it's thirty years later and somehow a load of people have been tortured and imprisoned and all sorts, meantime my bank balance has unaccountably mushroomed like there's no tomorrow. Lord knows how. None of my doing. I was just nipping out for some milk. Anyway, now I'm here, in this palace, like, might as well stay for another few months, maybe a couple of years, after all, the beds and tables and whatnot have been specially built for someone just my height, be a shame to throw them all out, wouldn't it?

[maqroll]

He seemed pretty defiant, really, and you have to think this is going to get real ugly by week's end....

[KevMur]

[theunderstudy]

Nice one Mr. Murray!

[snowychap]

It's all been pretty nasty today and it appears due to get worse later on as those in the square have been told to evacuate it and that the water cannon will roll in at midnight to deal with those who haven't (C4 report).

[maqroll]

Reports say the National Museum is burning

Can you imagine the treasures and antiquities in there?

What a tragedy.

[Awol]

Reports say the National Museum is burning

Can you imagine the treasures and antiquities in there?

What a tragedy.

Molotov's thrown into the grounds by Mubarak supporters / plain clothes police (allegedly) on high ground, but put out. As you said earlier this is going to get ugly and ultimately the army will decide it now. The longer it drags out the more likely some kind off insurgency by regime loyalists will begin, but it's looking like the first moves of actual civil war right now.

[JulieB]

"The iron mixing with the clay"

Just awful watching all this unfold.... Reminds me of Rwanda & Yugoslavia...just disintegrating into anarchy..

I sure hope the Egyptian National Museum isn't burning. IIRC the British Museum have sent some of Egypt's antiquities back for a while.

[peterms]

So, who exactly are in place to take over if they topple the regime?

A lot of suggestions that the Muslim Brotherhood will step in, and they aren't terribly fussed about Democratic values either...plus there is a decent Christian population there too, what will it mean for them?

This article is quite informative about the various groups opposing the regime. Doesn't answer who will take over, though I'm not sure anyone can answer that.

[mjmooney]

Be careful what you wish for, you may just get it.