Bollitics - Ireland, the Euro and the future of the EU

[peterms]

The final sentence is interesting. "Wollen Sie das?" Do you want that? Like there's any real democratic option about what to do if you don't want it...

Somewhere between the MittelEnglandStadt of the mail/Express, the more nuanced views of the Torygraph, the more informed comments of the FT, and the loony left of the Grauniad and all points left (dangerous territory, I know), there is a vast majority opposed to printing money to pay bankers for having made stupid loans to people without the assets or income to repay them.

Our politicians appear not to respond to this, probably because they are in the pay (past, current, or prospective future) of the thieving clearings in the woods in question.

[Awol]

Like there's any real democratic option about what to do if you don't want it...

I think this is the interesting sentence because the core argument against the EU is the absence of democracy. 'No taxation without representation' and an entire top tier of EU political elite are now beyond accountability to the people of Europe - but in receipt of an ever increasing amount of taxpayers money.

The whole rotten mess may yet implode under the weight of economic reality, but if it doesn't, at what point does the continuing and insidious salami slicing of our sovereignty justify armed resistance?

Check out Article 61 of Magna Carta..

[LondonLax]

Italian bond yields have gone through the roof. It seems like no one is willing to lend them any money anymore whilst their government is in disorder.

They will need an IMF bailout soon if this keeps up. Looks like the Euro crisis has gone up another gear.

[tonyh29]

think I mentioned it in another thread but matey boy expert on the radio the other week said the Italian debt is rumoured to make the Greece problems look tiny in comparison

[mjmooney]

The final sentence is interesting. "Wollen Sie das?" Do you want that?

"...Weil das ist, was Sie erhalten!"

[Awol]

think I mentioned it in another thread but matey boy expert on the radio the other week said the Italian debt is rumoured to make the Greece problems look tiny in comparison

1.9 trillion Euros with at least 300 billion of that to be rolled over (if anyone will buy it) in the next 12 months..

From todays Guardian FP: Reports that Germany and France have begun talks to break up the eurozone amid fears that Italy will be too big to rescue

Fears that Europe's sovereign debt crisis was spiralling out of control have intensified as political chaos in Athens and Rome, and looming recession, created panic on world markets.

Reports emerging from Brussels said that Germany and France had begun preliminary talks on a break-up of the eurozone, amid fears that Italy would be too big to rescue.

Despite Silvio Berlusconi's announcement that he would step down as prime minister once austerity measures were pushed through parliament, a collapse of investor confidence in the eurozone's third-biggest economy sent interest rates in Italy to the levels that triggered bailouts in Portugal, Greece and Ireland.

Italian bond yields surged through the critical 7% mark, at one point hitting 7.5%, amid concern that the deteriorating situation had moved the crisis into a dangerous new phase.

In Athens talks to appoint a prime minister to succeed George Papandreou were in deadlock, and will resume on Thursday morning. The Italian president, Giorgio Napolitano, sought to reassure the markets by promising that Berlusconi would be leaving office soon.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said the situation had become "unpleasant", and called for eurozone members to accelerate plans for closer political integration. "It is time for a breakthrough to a new Europe," she said. "Because the world is changing so much, we must be prepared to answer the challenges. That will mean more Europe, not less Europe."

The president of the European commission, José Manuel Barroso, issued a new call for the EU to "unite or face irrelevance" in the face of the mounting economic crisis in Italy. "We are witnessing fundamental changes to the economic and geopolitical order that have convinced me that Europe needs to advance now together or risk fragmentation. Europe must either transform itself or it will decline. We are in a defining moment where we either unite or face irrelevance," he said.

Senior policymakers in Paris, Berlin and Brussels are reported to have discussed the possibility of one or more countries leaving the eurozone, while the remaining core pushes on toward deeper economic integration, including on tax and fiscal policy. "France and Germany have had intense consultations on this issue over the last months, at all levels," a senior EU official in Brussels told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.

More on link.

I can't see Germany authorising the ECB to become the lender of last resort, create trillions of Euros and allow hyperinflation loose in Europe once again.

That leaves two options really: A United States of Northern Europe with full harmonisation of monetary, fiscal and taxation policy, or a German withdrawal to make the rest of the Eurozone more competitive with a devalued Euro currency.

Going by the call for 'more Europe' from Sarkosy, Merkel and the arch Communist Barroso it looks like the former option is preferred. This is now the 3rd century in a row that either France or Germany has tried to take over the continent, it's starting to get ridiculous.

[LondonLax]

This is now the 3rd century in a row that either France or Germany has tried to take over the continent, it's starting to get ridiculous.

That sentiment is getting ridiculous. France and Germany can either do nothing and watch Greece and Italy go bust Argentina style or they can offer to throw their own money in to the pit and ask for some sort of fiscal reform so they will actually get it back again in the future.

The notion that they are trying to take over the country is just hyperbole.

[tonyh29]

Some interesting comments on the EU from Cameron of late

EU referendum in 2012 perhaps ?

[Chindie]

Opportunism to dangle a popular carrot on a stick while it looks like there may be the option to offer it with less hassle in the coming months as the union tears itself apart I'd say . It's the kind of hint dropping that has no risks and all the benefits.

[tonyh29]

I think Cameron runs the risk of being ousted by his own party if he is seen too pro Europe so the sound bites could be more for their benefit as much as his

[kidlewis]

if I was Germany i'd pull out of the euro and send the ECB a meme

Pwoblem?

[TrentVilla]

What have the English Cricket Board got to do with it?

[Meath_Villan]

quoting from askaboutmoney.com ....."

Our company brought all the IT managers and Fund accounting managers into a meeting on Friday. They told them to enable currency switching functionality by Dec 24th.

And to inform all staff that emergency protocol will be implemented from Dec 24th to Jan 3. In other words, holidays may be cancelled without notice between those dates.

I only heard about it today because i wasnt in the office on Friday.

A friend in another company had the exact same thing happen. Same dates too.

They are planning for something big to happen over Christmas."

[snowychap]

S&P seemingly trying to threaten the eurozone into behaving as it desires and then Cameron appears to threaten a veto on other matters (which is perhaps more playing to the gallery than actual intent)...

Just an average week for the eurozone.

[tonyh29]

and so it begins .... referendum or a new UK election

Boris for PM ?

[VILLAFC2000]

Borris for PM...?!

As if Gideon and call me Dave don't spurt enough babbling s**t.

[kidlewis]

Perhaps they should do what gord and labour did and ignore public opinion and now to Brussels?

After all it's what Ed would do

[VILLAFC2000]

Yeh, because there's no way the blue noses would have hung on to power for as long as they could would they...?!

(shudder)

[peterms]

...Cameron appears to threaten a veto on other matters (which is perhaps more playing to the gallery than actual intent)...

Cameron's colleagues are climbing over each other to be the first, the loudest, the most demanding, in setting conditions and requirements he can't fulfil. Mostly about making Europe dance to the tune of the most anti-European bit of the most anti-European party currently holding office in Europe, by threatening a veto, in a very loud and commanding voice. Like shouting "Garcon!" in a Paris restaurant, and with about the same result.

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, Dave's card is marked:

Merkel and Sarkozy also called for EU treaties to be reopened and changed to write new rules for the euro, giving the European commission and the European court of justice extensive new powers of intervention in member states' budgets. "We are convinced that we have to act immediately," they said.

The summit has to take decisions so that the treaty changes are tabled by next March. But if it proves too difficult to reach agreement among the 27 EU states, Berlin and Paris said they would opt for a new pact simply among the euro countries.

"We propose that those new rules and commitments should be enshrined in European treaties. Alternatively, the member states whose currency is the euro will have to go ahead."

That was seen as a warning to Cameron to temper his demands and go along with changing the Lisbon treaty or be bypassed.

[Awol]

Changes to the Lisbon Treaty would put a moral obligation on Cameron allow a popular vote. His position in opposition (before Brown slinked off to Lisbon and broke his own party's manifesto commitment to a referendum) was that we would have a referendum on Lisbon if it hadn't been ratified before the election. By opening it back up the EU are ensuring that there is everything to play for again and the Eurosceptics (or perhaps more correctly, the people who were right about the Euro currency - having learned the lessons from the ERM fiasco - and the EU's political ambitions) aren't going to let that pass.

The new EU Visitor's Centre in Brussels has this to say:"National sovereignty is the root cause of the most crying evils of our time. The only final remedy for this supreme and catastrophic evil is a federal union of the peoples." With that end state goal in mind, arguing against giving the people a vote now is an explicit rejection of democratic politics.

If they go for a new treaty among the 17 instead then they will still have to get that past - at the minimum - an Irish referendum. I'd be surprised if our neighbours are too keen on the idea of fiscal union, having already seen their eurozone future when the President caught the German Parliament studying the 'secret' Irish budget before his own Parliament had done so!

If Cameron blocks a popular vote then he is no different to the anti-democratic socialists who went before him and deserves to go. We can't save the Euro, nobody can without full European economic and political integration. A referendum offers the best chance of a gracious exit from the political and social trauma any EU 'solution' is likely to unleash.