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Global Warming


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How certain are you that Global Warming is man-made?  

132 members have voted

  1. 1. How certain are you that Global Warming is man-made?

    • Certain
      34
    • Likely
      49
    • Not Likely
      34
    • No way
      17

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neither can we do anything about earthquake or volcanic eruption

But actually as I posted previously some eminnent scientists are starting to link an increase in tectonic plate activity because of the decrease in glacial plugs on some Volcanoes & the increase in water pressure due to rising sea levels, whatever the cause of global warming!

If it turns out man's emissions of C02 ARE indeed having an effect on global warming and what these geologists are saying is correct, then actually your statement could be wrong.

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neither can we do anything about earthquake or volcanic eruption

But actually as I posted previously some eminnent scientists are starting to link an increase in tectonic plate activity because of the decrease in glacial plugs on some Volcanoes & the increase in water pressure due to rising sea levels, whatever the cause of global warming!

If it turns out man's emissions of C02 ARE indeed having an effect on global warming and what these geologists are saying is correct, then actually your statement could be wrong.

a link to the eminent geologists please?

See I'm sceptical because tectonic plate activity is one of the causes of volcanoes erupting (not the other way around, an erupting volcano does not make a plate move as your posts suggests) but removing an ice cap in theory should have no effect, you only tend to get ice caps on dormant volcanoes anyway, active volcanoes would see any ice off on a regular basis.

And is there any evidence of sea level actually rising much? enough to increase the water pressure at the bottom of the oceans in a major way? What about the plate boundaries that are continental how does it affect them?

See for me it doesn't add up but I'd like a chance to at least read these theories and what evidence they actually have

And I'm a believer in GW, I just dont think untrue crackpot theories do any side any good when it comes to debating the issues

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a link to the eminent geologists please?

At least one was on the program that was on TV recently IIRC on Channel 4 with interviews from Volcanologists from the British Geological Society up in Edinburgh. Guy with the beard who was interviewed concerning Icelandic Volcanoes & what would happen if Katla Volcano went off with a bang...., sorry to be so vague but I have no idea what is name was. I Sky+ it but deleted the program. the interview at the end with him 7 another guy from the BGS both gave opinions that global warming was having an effect on tectonic activity.

I hadn't heard anything about this at all until earlier this year but I've read a fair few articles lately about the subject.

I didn't mean a Volcano would cause tectonic activity, what I meant was that scientists are the glacial plug melting on a Volcano would cause an eruption like a bottle being uncorked. I was reading a paper written in 2004 by a scientist who predicted the Icelandic eruptions because the glacier ice above them was thinning.

The Icelandic Volcanoes are indeed on a fault line but I didn't mean they caused earthquakes it's like you say the other way round normally Volcanoes occur & erupt because of movements of the plates.

However it is whether when an immense weight of Ice being removed from a the plug of a dormant Volcano magma chamber - could this also cause it to erupt?

Just a random search...

Nat Geo

With quotes

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If you check out IRIS ..you can see just how many earthquakes are happening. Today there was apparently a

6.2 in Mexico & a 6.3 magnitude earthquake south of Fiji...they hardly make the news they are so frequent.

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Apologies if any of these repeat at all. Don't shoot the messenger I'm merely passing on what I've been reading the last few months.

Fire & Ice

USCEC

mi2g

To be fair it's probably not so much the water pressure according to those articles I mis-understood. It's actually the weight of ice being removed that seems to be causing problems with the plates.

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Average temperature for Denmark since 1990

Year Temperature

1990 8,4

1991 5,5

1992 7,8

1993 6,7

1994 6,0

1995 6,2

1996 4,0

1997 6,0

1998 7,3

1999 6,5

2000 7,5

2001 5,5

2002 7,9

2003 6,2

2004 6,4

2005 6,3

2006 5,3

2007 8,4

2008 7,9

2009 6,8

2010 4,7 the first half of 2010 was a cold one,we are back to 1996 before we find a first half which was colder.

GW my ass :-)

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If you check out IRIS ..you can see just how many earthquakes are happening. Today there was apparently a

6.2 in Mexico & a 6.3 magnitude earthquake south of Fiji...they hardly make the news they are so frequent.

Seems normal to me, they hardly make the news because only the catastrophic ones ever do, there has always been lots of earthquakes, it is normal

And Fiji and Mexico are about as far away from a melting Ice cap as you can get so I still don't get it

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The mean average for magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes is about 1 every 2.67 days. with a deviation of around 0.41

Until a few weeks ago 2010 had seen the average up from 2.67 to 2.4 looking at figures quoted in the Washington Post from the USGS

2 in one day is well above that and if GW is having an effect then I would suspect, although I bow to your knowledge as a geologist we can expect that mean average to reduce.

From my passing interest in plate tectonics I thought the movement of the plates causes friction and stresses to build up along a fault line to such a degree that the sudden jolt to release that pressure causes the earthquake, therefore I'm presuming those pressures can build up thousand of miles away but still cause an earthquake along any part of the faultlines in a plate?

I found this interview also...

Global Network for Forecasting Earthquakes

An interview by Vice-President of the International Academy of Science, President of GNFE, Doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences, Professor Elchin Khalilov to Kazakhstan Today agency.

Since the beginning of 2010, our planet has been witnessing intensification of many natural disasters: strong earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, huge sinkholes, etc. This fact cannot but alarm ordinary people and governments of various countries alike.

Kazakhstan Today agency has asked a well-known scientist in the field of seismology and geodynamics, Chairman of the International Committee on Issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment GEOCHANGE (London), Vice-President of the International Academy of Science, President of GNFE, Doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences, Professor Elchin Khalilov to comment on the situation.

Kazakhstan Today: Honorable Professor, along with ideas about intensification of natural disasters, some scientists have expressed the view that there is no intensification and natural disasters are occurring within the normal background level. Still, what is happening in reality?

E.Khalilov: Of course, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But any serious scientific statement should be based on strict facts and evidence; otherwise, it is nothing more than an assumption. At the moment, the International Committee GEOCHANGE has prepared a first report on the issues of global changes of geological environment, which is being currently published by international SWB publishing house in London. The report containing over 150 pages is comprised of six chapters: "Economic aspects of natural disasters", "Lithosphere", "Hydrosphere", "Atmosphere", "Geophysical and cosmic factors", "Conclusions and forecasts".

The report provides irrefutable evidence to confirm there is a substantial increase in the activity of natural disasters in all Earth shells including lithosphere, water medium and atmosphere as well as solar system-wide changes in the geophysical parameters and indicators, causing alarm among scientists.

Not only the international committee's report is based on the statement of facts, but it is also a deep and comprehensive analysis of statistical and other indicators of major natural disasters worldwide such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunami, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, global sea level change, forest fires etc.

I would like to cite some noteworthy passages from the report:

- over the past 10 years, 42% more people have died of catastrophic earthquakes as compared to the preceding 50 years;

- over the past decade, the number of casualties at strong earthquakes across the world has increased 8.6-fold compared with the average per decade values during the preceding 50 years;

- over the past 5 years, the economic damage from flooding in the U.S. has exceeded the total economic damage sustained during the preceding 20 years;

- for the first five months of 2010, the worldwide number of volcanic eruptions has exceeded the average annual volcanic eruption rate over the last 150 years;

- over the past decade, tsunami have killed tens of times more people than during the preceding 100 years;

- over the past five years, the number of floods in the world has more than doubled compared with the preceding five year periods.

- from 1990 to 2003, the north magnetic pole's movement (drift) speed soared spasmodically by more than 500%, for the first time over 100 years of observation. I would like to remind that Earth's magnetic field is formed within its core, and such enormous acceleration of the magnetic pole movement is indicative of increase in the energy processes at our planet's core level.

- In 1998, the U.S. National Aerospace Agency NASA registered with the help of a special satellite system an abnormally high variation of the so-called J2 coefficient. The baffled NASA experts stated that whereas prior to 1998 the satellites had been registering a steady reduction of Earth's radius at the equator and its augmentation at the poles, this trend sharply reversed in 1998. That is, Earth has begun to expand in the equatorial area and shrink at the polar regions. It has been an absolutely unusual leap in changing of Earth's shape, and a definite convincing answer about the causes of this phenomenon is yet to be found.

Meanwhile, the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE is to reveal some research results which will change many concepts and I think the presented facts and realities will be a shock for the world community.

I could go on long with quoting specific sections of the report; however, I believe these facts are enough to convince all doubters of the actual intensification of natural disasters worldwide, a process that has been developing with a significant acceleration since 2010.

Kazakhstan Today: Could you give us more detail about the International Committee GEOCHANGE?

E.Khalilov: The International Committee GEOCHANGE was established in 2009 by prominent scientists from different countries, who signed an international communiqué on global changes of the geological environment.

For the time being, the International Communiqué has been signed by about 200 scientists from more than 60 countries of the world. Among the signatories to the Communiqué are such renowned scientists as Professor Franz Halberg, founder of the modern science of chronobiology (USA); Doctor Manoel Barretto da Rocha Neto, Director General of the Geological Survey of Brazil; Doctor Rui Pinho, Director General of the Global Earthquake Modeling Center (Italy); Doctor Stephen de Mora, Director of Plymouth Marine Laboratory (UK); Professor Yevgeniy Gordeev, Director of RAS Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Russia); Professor Vitaly Starostenko, Director of the Institute of Geophysics of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences (Ukraine); Professor Santourdjian Ohanes, Director of the Institute of Water Problems of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences; Professor Ahsan Mubarak, Director of the Pakistan Scientific Center for Earthquake Studies;

Doctor Rumen Bojkov, Advisor to the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization on ozone and climate change (Germany); Professor Junun Sartohadi, Director of the Center for Natural Disasters Studies of Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia); Doctor Mariyana Nikolova, Director of the Institute of Geography of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Chair of the Bulgarian National Committee of Geography; Doctor Tamara Tsutsunava, Director of the Institute of Geology of the Georgian Academy of Sciences; Professor Fathudin Ziyaudinov, Director of the Institute of Seismology of the Uzbekistan Academy of Sciences; Professor Yevgeniy Rogojin, vice-director of RAS Institute of Physics of the Earth (Russia); Professor Yevgeniy Sklarov, Director of RAS Institute of Earth Crust (Russia); heads of state agencies, MPs, rectors of leading state universities, directors of scientific research institutes and other institutions of Azerbaijan; Doctor Slobodan Miko, Director of the Department for mineral resources of Croatian Geological Survey; Doctor Jae Gon Kim, Director of South Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources; heads of scientific institutions and government structures, renowned scientists in the field of earth sciences and related fields from various countries. Full list of signatories to the communiqué is given on the International Committee GEOCHANGE website.

Kazakhstan Today: Elchin Nusratovich, the information you provided about the participants of the communiqué is really very impressive and indicates the extreme importance of the problem. Is the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE available for ordinary people?

E.Khalilov: Of course, this opportunity will be granted to everyone interested. Currently the report is being published in English and Russian languages. Simultaneously, the preparation of German, French and Spanish versions is underway. The first report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE covering the period up to 31 May 2010 will be posted in all aforementioned languages on the International Committee GEOCHANGE website prior to September 2010.

Kazakhstan Today: Could you comment on the recent eruptions of two large volcanoes in Ecuador and Guatemala on 28th May, 2010? How, in your opinion, is the situation with natural disasters going to develop this year?

E.Khalilov: You have touched upon a sensitive issue. Even before millions of people had a chance to breathe a sigh of relief after the traffic nightmare caused by volcanic ash from the Icelandic volcano which covered the entire atmosphere over Europe and paralyzed air traffic (about 100 thousand flights were cancelled) in many countries across the world, new eruptions started in another part of the planet. According to the report by the International Committee GEOCHANGE, the total economic damage from the Icelandic volcano eruption alone has approached 10 billion Euros.

Eruptions of the two most active volcanoes in the world, Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador and Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, have already led to human casualties and great economic damage. Thousands of people have been evacuated and keep on fleeing hazardous areas surrounded by volcanoes. Almost at the same time, at the other end of the planet - in Kamchatka - another four of Earth's major volcanoes: Karymsky, Shiveluch, Bezymianny and Kliuchevskoi began to erupt from May 31 to June 2. The Bezymianny volcano's eruption was accompanied by an explosion and ejection of a column of ash to the height of 11 km. So, as you can see, the awakening of the planet is taking place almost simultaneously in all geodynamically active zones.

But no less trouble is brought about by other disasters, namely floods. In 2005, a total of 1836 people died in the U.S. from the flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina. The damage inflicted to the U.S. by Hurricane Katrina and the flooding amounted to nearly $ 130 billion. The state of emergency was declared in a number of states. The then U.S. President George W. Bush stated in his speech that that calamity was the most horrific natural disasters in the U.S. history.

And look at what is happening now. Many European countries have been inundated, and the Polish flood reaching an incredible scale and threatening the country's national security has caused damage of more than 3 billion Euros. About 20 people have died and nearly a million have been evacuated.

The disaster of no lesser scale has struck our country of Azerbaijan as well. Heaviest rains and intense tectonic movements registered by ATROPATENA stations have led to a phenomenon never witnessed before. On May 3, severe landslides causing human causalities happened in eight different regions of Azerbaijan, located at the opposite ends of the country - in the north, south, west and east, all at the same time. Early in May 2010, as a result of Kura River overflowing its banks and incessant rains, 40 districts of Azerbaijan were subjected to inundation. The disaster led to flooding of about 20 000 houses; more than 300 were destroyed, 2,000 were in emergency condition; and 50,000 hectares of cultivated land were under water.

Провал в Земле в столице Гватемалы. REUTERS/Daniel LeClairEven more rare events are taking place, which are amazing for their unusualness and extent of their manifestations. For instance, a huge ground sinkhole - a gigantic hole with a diameter of about 20 meters, nearly 60 meters deep and of almost perfectly round shape was formed in Guatemala City, astonishing not only laymen but also earth sciences experts. Two weeks earlier, 11 May 2010 in the Canadian province of Quebec, in the town of St. Jude a gigantic circular crater with a much bigger area than the Guatemalan one was formed in the ground. Within the same period of time, that is, in the first half of May several ground sinkholes appeared almost simultaneously in different regions of Azerbaijan, some of them resulting in loss of human life.

I would like to focus our readers' attention on the fact that the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE also provides some disappointing long-term forecasts based on analysis of cyclicity in the manifestations of many disasters. Virtually all research results verify the timeline of the greatest manifestation of natural disasters (2011-2015), repeatedly mentioned by us earlier. The forecast deals with nearly all types of disasters - strong earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunami, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, sea level rise and global climate change. But starting from the September 2010, statistical indicators for all natural disasters are going to rise sharply. According to the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE), intensification of Earth's seismic activity is expected for June 2010.

By submitting the report for public discussion, we want to show the whole world - politicians, business circles, scientists and all sectors of society what serious danger humanity is faced with. The report is made up in such a way that any educated person can perceive the realities of the global changes that are currently taking place in nature, threatening the stability of humankind development.

The first report of the International Committee will be considered and discussed during the General Assembly, the date and venue of which are being specified. At the same time with the General Assembly, an international conference on global changes of the geological environment is planned to be held.

International communiqué GEOCHANGE members hope that their warning will be heard and will allow, through the joint efforts of the international community, to be prepared in time for the expected large-scale natural disasters.

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If the average frequency is 2.67 with an SD of 0.41 the a current figure of 2.4 is well within what you would call a normal frequency

That would be true of a destructive plate. Earlier on you mentioned Iceland and some geologist talking about the volcanic activity there and somehow that was related to global warming? Iceland is at the edge of a constructive plate margin, where two plates push apart at the mid Atlantic ridge and I seriously can't see how that has anything to do with global warming and the release of pressure due to reduced Ice at the poles as it is driven by activity below the earths crust as magma reaches the surface

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If the average frequency is 2.67 with an SD of 0.41 the a current figure of 2.4 is well within what you would call a normal frequency

That would be true of a destructive plate. Earlier on you mentioned Iceland and some geologist talking about the volcanic activity there and somehow that was related to global warming? Iceland is at the edge of a constructive plate margin, where two plates push apart at the mid Atlantic ridge and I seriously can't see how that has anything to do with global warming and the release of pressure due to reduced Ice at the poles as it is driven by activity below the earths crust as magma reaches the surface

The previous interview with a scientist from GEOCHANGE promises an important report in September, so perhaps we'll all find out more.

I think what they are saying is that Ice is heavy and exerts enormous pressure on whatever lies beneath it. Under glaciers and other thick ice formations, the pressure is often enough to limit geologic movement, or even to restrict the formation of magma by leaving too little room for superheated rock to expand and turn to liquid.

Although I concede the ice cap on top of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano was lightweight & probably could not have exerted enough pressure to keep it under wraps, however Katla is a different matter & the glacial ice is in retreat.

When glacial ice melts, the pressure underneath is reduced, allowing the surface of the Earth to push free of its constraints, a release of energy that sometimes causes earthquakes, tsunamis or volcanic eruption - or at least that's what these scientists are saying. I think one of the articles mentions it's like pressing your thumb into a ball really hard & then releasing it, which means the ball bounces back.

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I thought ice was lighter than water, so when it melts it would weigh more and the pressure would increase

If the ice melts it doesn't stay ontop of the Volcano though does it to exert any pressure? It melts & runs off into rivers & the sea. That's what happened with Eyjafjallajokull Glacier because when it melted it caused flooding on the plains around the Volcano.

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I thought ice was lighter than water, so when it melts it would weigh more and the pressure would increase

If the ice melts it doesn't stay ontop of the Volcano though does it to exert any pressure? It melts & runs off into rivers & the sea. That's what happened with Eyjafjallajokull Glacier because when it melted it caused flooding on the plains around the Volcano.

But it still exerts pressure on the plate unless the river or sea crosses a plate boundary

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I haven't read the full thread because im pissed, but i think the majority of climate change is a cycle thing, only 30 years ago it was said we were going into an ice age, i just think temperatures are raising since records began.

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I thought ice was lighter than water, so when it melts it would weigh more and the pressure would increase

If the ice melts it doesn't stay ontop of the Volcano though does it to exert any pressure? It melts & runs off into rivers & the sea. That's what happened with Eyjafjallajokull Glacier because when it melted it caused flooding on the plains around the Volcano.

But it still exerts pressure on the plate unless the river or sea crosses a plate boundary

Admittedly but then water spreads it's weight - I'm guessing like a person standing will sink into quick sand, whereas if they lie down flat & spread their weight it stops them sinking so fast, because the pressure in one area isn't so great.

You understand these things much better than I do. However as a lay person I can kinda grasp what these scientists are saying

That GEOCHANGE crowd contains some pretty reputable geologists I would think & I don't quite get why they would put their names to something if they didn't genuinely think there was a cause for concern. As I said before they are supposedly preparing an important report later this year so maybe more details will be forthcoming. However in science as with life in general, people have different opinions and as GW seems to have it's opponents as well as it's supporters the debate over GW causing seismic events will rage on no doubt.

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Thing is Julie, whilst its my subject the geophysics aspect of it, isn't my strongpoint at all. But the fact that some eminent geologists put their name to something doesn't mean a lot as you'll find theres probably another bunch of them who think the first bunch are talking rubbish. I used to have a lecturer called Prof Flynn and you should have seen the rage he went into when the last of his once famous theories had been disproved thirty odd years after he published them and they'd been accepted as "correct" - it happens all the time :)

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