Bolitics The New Condem Government

[drat01]

Snowy - the explicit bit is in the words that came out of their mouths - they could not have been more explicit than that!

Look at the media headlines that cam with the interviews - plastered with no VAT rises statements. People picked up on that and took it as a fact, something they believed in. Add to that the lies regarding the NI increases and you can see a whole load of this, that was quickly disregarded once they were on minister expense schemes.

Now when we see the extent of their lies within this short time, people are quickly realising that basically they have brought into something that is complete and utter bollox and will ultimately hurt them. Every day each of the manifesto promises - things they said made them different from the other parties is being blown out of the water.

[drat01]

They haven't screwed up at all, Ian. It boils down to this, unpopular cuts that in an ideal world would be avoided have to be made in order to right the economy. Labour went on a decade long bender with the national wallet, spent the cash, the bank loans, the plastic, et al. Now we've finally sobered up and found oursleves lying in a ditch covered in puke and we have to make some tough decisions to clean up our act. It's not great but there is no realistic alternative, which is why the G20 have endorsed the programme laid out by Osborne and are taking similar measures themselves.

If you want to blame someone then blame those who created this mess, not those trying to clean it up.

Jon again and again your only defence is to blame the others. Are you happy they lied on so many key points in the run in to the election? Would you be happy if you were a LibDem and brought into this total and utter betrayal of what your old party stood for only a couple of weeks back?

The G20 plans have been endorsed for all of their plans - they have always done that, its nothing more than a piss up for those in power. The IMF on the other hand have rang alarm bells. Other bodies are doing the same and we still are not creating the one thing that will help all economics - jobs! The old Tory doctrine of Thatcher was one of pah to the workforce and concentrate on sucking up to the markets. Again we are seeing that.

It's funny you say blame those that created this mess - this gvmt seems to be blaming the public sector and the poor.

[Awol]

If you won't even face the basic facts of the situation Ian then there is little point trying to discuss this with you at all.

[snowychap]

Snowy - the explicit bit is in the words that came out of their mouths - they could not have been more explicit than that!

And from what I remember, read and have seen quoted those words were quite carefully chosen so as not to explicitly rule out a VAT rise. They certainly gave the air that there wasn't going to be one but they didn't say that.

What they did say was that their plans (which were not explicitly set out) didn't involve a VAT increase. Lying about that is something which is very difficult to prove hence why they went down that route.

Look at the media headlines that cam with the interviews - plastered with no VAT rises statements. People picked up on that and took it as a fact, something they believed in.

Well, I'd suggest that's mainly the problem of the media and the people who rely upon the media for their information without trying to understand what is actually being said to them.

The politicians and their backroom staff are perfectly aware that this is how things play out and that is why they try and tailor their choice of words to allow enough wriggle room in what they say.

[Richard]

Cameron and Osborne are using Thatcherite policies about as much as Bliar and Blown used Foot policies

[drat01]

Snowy - the explicit bit is in the words that came out of their mouths - they could not have been more explicit than that!

And from what I remember, read and have seen quoted those words were quite carefully chosen so as not to explicitly rule out a VAT rise. They certainly gave the air that there wasn't going to be one but they didn't say that.

What they did say was that their plans (which were not explicitly set out) didn't involve a VAT increase. Lying about that is something which is very difficult to prove hence why they went down that route.

Look at the media headlines that cam with the interviews - plastered with no VAT rises statements. People picked up on that and took it as a fact, something they believed in.

Well, I'd suggest that's mainly the problem of the media and the people who rely upon the media for their information without trying to understand what is actually being said to them.

The politicians and their backroom staff are perfectly aware that this is how things play out and that is why they try and tailor their choice of words to allow enough wriggle room in what they say.

I agree with you on the marketing spin that political parties put on what they say.

There is an article re the VAT rises in this

link

Amongst other things there are some key bits

The bombshell rise in VAT will lead to 235,000 job losses and put a permanent dent in the living standards of every family in the country, economists warn.

The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies also warned the VAT rise was likely to have a significant impact on household budgets. The respected think tank said by hiking prices the move would reduce the value of all future earnings and savings by 1%.

- note they did say delaying it may help a double dip

The quotes though are significant

Broken promises

• 'There are no secret plans for an increase in the VAT rate.' George Osborne, August, 2009

• 'Our plans involve cutting wasteful spending and stopping the National Insurance rise, our plans don't involve an increase in VAT.' David Cameron, April 2010

• 'The tax increases are already in place, the plans do not include an increase in VAT.' George Osborne, April, 2010

• 'There are no plans in the Conservative Party to raise VAT. I think the Lib Dems can pipe down about this now.' William Hague, April, 2010

• 'We will not have to raise VAT to deliver our promises. Their (Conservative) tax promises on marriage and jobs may sound appealing. But they come with a secret VAT bombshell close behind.' Nick Clegg, April, 2010

• 'I think I would predict within a few months they [a Conservative Government] would have increased VAT to 22.5 to 25 per cent. We're in a totally different place to where the Tories are.' Vince Cable, September, 2009.

[Awol]

The alternative to a VAT rise was another 11 billon in cuts. Where would they come from other than frontline services? This lot aren't going to run to the printing presses like Labour did so somewhere and somehow the books have to be balanced. Don't you accept that Ian?

[drat01]

Jon - there were / are alternatives to VAT rises - these VAT rises will cause significant job losses and hit the poor hard. The ConDem's have gone down the route of accepting this - even though they said they would not - and we will now all have to suffer.

As for front line services it seems that again despite assurances to the contrary they will be hit under this Gvmt.

[snowychap]

The quotes though are significant

Broken promises

• 'There are no secret plans for an increase in the VAT rate.' George Osborne, August, 2009

• 'Our plans involve cutting wasteful spending and stopping the National Insurance rise, our plans don't involve an increase in VAT.' David Cameron, April 2010

• 'The tax increases are already in place, the plans do not include an increase in VAT.' George Osborne, April, 2010

• 'There are no plans in the Conservative Party to raise VAT. I think the Lib Dems can pipe down about this now.' William Hague, April, 2010

They are significant in that in none of those quotes are they explicitly ruling out increasing VAT; they are saying that they had no plans to (which, as I've already said, I don't believe).

You may view this as just a semantic argument but that is what a great deal of politics and discussion of politics comes down to.

I don't think there's any problem with accusing the Tories of lying about their plans but, as I suggested earlier, it's a difficult thing to prove (unless evidence of their plans comes out to the contrary) and they, like all political parties, know that. Whereas accusing them of going back on promises which they didn't make doesn't make sense.

All three of the parties (the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems) failed to rule out VAT rises prior to the election.

[Awol]

Jon - there were / are alternatives to VAT rises..

Fee free to share. 11 billion quid, where can we get that from?

[snowychap]

The alternative to a VAT rise was another 11 billon in cuts.

Was it? Only if there was no alternative to the scale of the cuts.

This lot aren't going to run to the printing presses like Labour did so somewhere and somehow the books have to be balanced.

Perhaps, then again if the export miracle that Osborne seems to be banking on doesn't arrive, might they not have to?

[drat01]

Jon - there were / are alternatives to VAT rises..

Fee free to share. 11 billion quid, where can we get that from?

Jon the internet is littered with alternatives from "informed" sources. Goodness even the Tory and LibDem's had them pre election, so I cannot see why you take the view there was no alternative. As said the ConDem's have gone down the route of VAT rises and now we will see the impacts of this and the pain that will bring.

[Awol]

Jon - there were / are alternatives to VAT rises..

Fee free to share. 11 billion quid, where can we get that from?

Jon the internet is littered with alternatives from "informed" sources.

Why not dig a few out then fella to support your argument? I'm interested now you have put it out there but don't really have the time to go searching for these "informed" alternatives at the moment.

[Awol]

The alternative to a VAT rise was another 11 billon in cuts.

Was it? Only if there was no alternative to the scale of the cuts.

I don't think there was, even what they have already announced is probably insufficent so I don't see how cutting less was ever an option, if the aim is to bring down the deficit significantly.

This lot aren't going to run to the printing presses like Labour did so somewhere and somehow the books have to be balanced.

Perhaps, then again if the export miracle that Osborne seems to be banking on doesn't arrive, might they not have to?

I agree it would be interesting to know what plan B is.

[snowychap]

I don't think there was, even what they have already announced is probably insufficent so I don't see how cutting less was ever an option, if the aim is to bring down the deficit significantly.

But that's the point, though, mate. It is opinion (and perhaps ideologically driven opinion a lot of the time) which is defining the scale and pace of the cuts.

Some people see this level as the only option, some people see it as the wrong option.

So what I was saying is that only if one subscribes to the scale and pace of cuts/deficit reduction that are the government's plans does there cease to be much alternative. There are, however, alternatives to their plans. Even if their plans bear fruit, we'll never really know whether other plans were right or wrong because they won't be implemented and it'll most likely be factors outside the government's control which determine whether or not their policy is successful, anyway.

I agree it would be interesting to know what plan B is.

He he - there's already too much 'plan B' discussion on VT.

[Ads]

I think a lot of fuss is being made about the VAT and I don’t see it effecting consumer sales a great deal, at least not while there are men around still shopping out of eyeshot of their wives and girlfriends. As long as the manufactures keep producing big or shiny things, then like magpies, us men will buy them without heed and keep the economy ticking over.

[Gringo]

I think a lot of fuss is being made about the VAT and I don’t see it effecting consumer sales a great deal, at least not while there are men around still shopping out of eyeshot of their wives and girlfriends. As long as the manufactures keep producing big or shiny things, then like magpies, us men will buy them without heed and keep the economy ticking over.

Nah. Retail sales will fall, credit markets are tight, and some people have learnt their lesson.

[TrentVilla]

I think a lot of fuss is being made about the VAT and I don’t see it effecting consumer sales a great deal, at least not while there are men around still shopping out of eyeshot of their wives and girlfriends. As long as the manufactures keep producing big or shiny things, then like magpies, us men will buy them without heed and keep the economy ticking over.

Not a chance.

An extra 2.5% on small items might not make a huge difference alone but added up they mount up and will affect peoples ability or willingness to spend. Especially as credit isn't as easily available as it once was, gone are the days of stores literally throwing store cards at people.

In addition to this an extra 2.5% on the price of big ticket iteams such as new cars or kitchens is obviously going to have some impact.

[Richard]

I expect there aill actually be a bounce on the Christmas retail numbers

[TrentVilla]

I expect there aill actually be a bounce on the Christmas retail numbers

What do you mean Richard? I'm not seeing your point I'm afraid.