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Not Counting any Chickens Yet


blandy

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I would like to subscribe to both this viewpoint, and Mr Bland's lengthier expose.

This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.

This from one of the better posters on this site too.

Bozzy: you have been quiet of late, possibly due to our resurgence?

At the start of this season you wanted MON gone, and believed he had "lost the plot". Clearly, you have not re-evaluated that position in the light of contrary evidence, which IMO is your achilles heel.

This is something i would expect of BJ Jon, not you.

It smarts of... anyone with a slightly pessimistic view is just wrong!

Where has Jon said PB is wrong? All i can see is Jon disagreeing, which is allowed, and asking him questions about his opinion.

Someone disagreeing with a negative poster doesn't automatically mean they think negative comments aren't allowed!

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Couple of things to argue the toss about with PB.

IMO I think under 70 points will get 4th this year as an example to get 70 + points this season Liverpool will need to win 14 and draw two of their final 20 league games. Does that look likely?

I think we'll get 67 points this season which stands a great chance of 4th in this moment in time. If as PB suggests we get 20 points from our next ten games, that would leave us with 55 points from 28 games and I have to say that would be a very very strong position. I think 16 ot 17 more points from our next ten games is more realistic and would still put us in a cracking position going into the final straight.

Also, did Chelsea really outclass us hugely. I know they created a few chances in the second half which Friedel stopped but I wouldn't save they were gravity defying saves, more just hit straight at him! Even if you do beat a top 4 side, you know with their quality, your keeper will be worked throughout the game. That was the case at Anfield but given it was just a week after the Wigan shambles and a team still without key signings, that too was a superb result.

I too agree with PB that we still lack the ability to control games and still tend to play backs against the wall and break but again the new organisation of the midfield is still in it's early stages so let's see how it progresses over the second half of the season as the signs so far have been hugely encouraging.

One final thing, most successful teams have rock solid defences, infact very rarely have I see a team win a trophy in recent times with a shoddy defence. MON has finally cracked the defensive unit so again let's see how far that takes us.

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two points behind united at christmas is a superb achievement.!

I think this more or less sums up what I'm saying

No it isnt. no it isnt a superb achievement. its meaningless in terms of 'achievements'. Its December. If we are two points away from united in may, thats a superb achievement.

We havent done anything yet, thats what I'm saying, and there is a long way to go and our opponents are bloody good and bloody experienced. this is the best league in the world. To finish sixth in this League considering the opposition this season would be a really good achievement

To finish fourth? Wow, I think you underestimate greatly what is required. the team that finishes fourth in this League will be one of the best teams in Europe, historically you would say capable of launching a serious bid for the Champions League title next season. Look at our squad, and ask yourself that question, are we that good?

I think you are wasting your time here, with all due respect.You are pissing on peoples chips and they are not having it....all the sense in the world and by jove you are talking some ....is immaterial.

You have clearly stated ( only short of the stamp of runnymede) that you are happy with the way things have panned out.... but no they have skipped that bit to wallow in your doubt, which in my view is justified, despite some great results.

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I think despite us having a resolute team, endeavour and team spirit will only take you so far.

to date we don't have individuals with the talent of Dwight yorke, Gary shaw, Brian Little or Gordon cowans.... we don't have prolific scorers like Andy Gray or David Platt.

we may even have a better team than those played in, but we don't have their ability to do it so consistently.

I feel Martin has done really well so far, as for where he goes from here I don't know, because he gives little indication as to whether the accusation in some quarters that he is in a time warp or lives in the 80's is fair.

He says very little as to what he thinks about the future development so you wouldn't know whether he is happy with us or wants to press on and make us even better.

i don't know what to think, other than we need some players who can change a game regularly to make the top flight

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Think the original article is excellent. I agree with the call for calmness to be honest. Like PB I've seen nothing yet which would indicate to me that we can get the amount of points required between now and the end of the season to claim 4th. We lack the quality to take games in our stride, and we frequently turn games into a kind of 'battle' of wills, challenging teams to be better than us in making the running and creating the goals in very open games. I accept that more often than not we come out on top in these pure footballing battles we get into, but our style of play won't guarantee good results all the time. I've made a lot of the following points in previous posts, but I stand by my opinions concerning the team as a whole.

Friedel is very strong in goal. He is so consistent with all the half chances/minor scares in our area and rarely makes a big error. On the other hand for me he doesn't save any of those really good efforts that the opposition have. I know that may sound a weak argument but Friedel doesnt make enough great saves over a season, he will always be an 8/10 keeper and no more. Hopefully Guzan will be able to go even better.

On the whole we look very good at the back with a lot of good options so we cant really complain here like we could in years gone by.

Up front I'm reasonably happy with how Gabby, Heskey and Carew are playing at the moment. However, as well as they can play all 3 have big limitations, we are lacking that all rounder type of forward who can do a bit of everything, but most importantly hit the back of the net week after week. If we are not seriously looking at this for next month then I do worry for our prospects in the run in, a natural goalscorer could be the only difference between 7th and 4th place for us.

As a team we seem to do well and put a battling shift in every week. But we aren't good enough at keeping the ball, and creating a good deal of chances in all games. Which in my view separates us from Man City, Liverpool and Spurs at the moment.

I think all we can SAFELY say for now is that we will be in the mix for European qualification come the end of the season. We did go on that run in October to November where we only seemed capable of battling for draws in these tough fixtures and I wondered where our away wins would come from, who would have thought that the Portsmouth carling cup game would signal such a turnaround for us? My point is we are well capable of going on a nightmare run like this again, pray we keep churning out 3 points in those awkward games against mid tablers.

Getting to the carling final should be a priority for me. Talk of top 4 is way too premature until Feb.

Great games coming up next week. 2 wins and its once again ours to throw away, 2 defeats and we could suddenly find ourselves back in 6th and struggling for wins again. 2-4 points from these 2 would be awesome. Come on Villa!

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I would like to subscribe to both this viewpoint, and Mr Bland's lengthier expose.

This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.

This from one of the better posters on this site too.

Bozzy: you have been quiet of late, possibly due to our resurgence?

At the start of this season you wanted MON gone, and believed he had "lost the plot". Clearly, you have not re-evaluated that position in the light of contrary evidence, which IMO is your achilles heel.

This is something i would expect of BJ Jon, not you.

It smarts of... anyone with a slightly pessimistic view is just wrong!

Where has Jon said PB is wrong? All i can see is Jon disagreeing, which is allowed, and asking him questions about his opinion.

Someone disagreeing with a negative poster doesn't automatically mean they think negative comments aren't allowed!

This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.

This from one of the better posters on this site too.

Bozzy: you have been quiet of late, possibly due to our resurgence?

At the start of this season you wanted MON gone, and believed he had "lost the plot". Clearly, you have not re-evaluated that position in the light of contrary evidence, which IMO is your achilles heel.

Cause it is, doesn't explain why he is disagreeing just the usual snipes, as like i explained is more common with other posters.

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the botome line of all this is despite the great results lately we are just as capable of going on a duff run......and if you listen carefully to Martin O'Neill I don't think he would disagree.

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I'm told that some aspects of this blog post may be unclear. Let me summarise

1. It is my belief and opinion that of the seven clubs I mention as competitors in this article, our squad is the weakest in most aspects. it is close in some cases, but overall that is my evaluation. This is clearly a matter of subjective opinion based upon nothing other than my watching these teams play this season. If you disagree with this premise, as you are clearly entitled to, then clearly you arent going to agree with the article, fair enough, but leave out the abuse pls

2. Our squad is considerably weaker than either Manchester United or Chelsea, to the point that it is ridiculous to even consider us as competitors to them. If you disagree with that, then of course that is clearly your prerogative. For me its very clear. So that leaves 4.

3. These four clubs, specifically Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City, should, given their squads, finish above us over a 38 game campaign. It isnt nailed on by any means, but that would be my expectation especially given that we are likely to be the only one of these to keep our chequebook shut next month. Therefore, if we can finish sixth, and therefore finish above one of them, we will have done really pretty well (especially if we add to that some silverware). I'd be pleased with that as a season and would consider it, all things considered, as a step up from last season. Finishing fifth, and therefore beating two of them, well, that would really be a significant achievement. I'd be really delighted with that.

4. My personal belief is that beating three of these, and finishing fourth, is too much to ask of this group of players. It is possible, there are sixty points left to play for, and we will need something like 40 of those, possibly a little less, but I think its too much. Again, this is my subjective opinion and you are free to disagree. This would be truly a magnificent achievement, almost unbelievably so. I dont think we have the ability, the experience or the leadership, but hope to be proven wrong.

5. Enjoy it, we are up here competing with the big boys, but look fellas, dont get all Billy big bollox. The attitude that comes over from some is one of extreme hubris. I suggest winding it in, we have done nothing yet, nothing at all, and the team can probably do without that pressure.

Thats all, apologies for any misunderstandings. I'm going to now edge towards the door and wish you all a merry Christmas and a Happy New year. I hope 2010 brings us what we deserve.

PB

(and jon, no the reason I havent been around of late has nothing to do with our resurgence, you will note I havent been around since September which is when the OU starts. Something has to give way to studying, and for me its Villa Talk. if I was as you imply worried by our resurgence then this would be a pretty daft time to post again wouldnt it? Furthermore, at no point have I ever wanted MON gone. I have never said that, or indeed implied that, I challenge you to find a post that says different. No need to make things up to support your argument, thanks.)

Well, merry xmas to you, and good luck with the OU.

Couple of points on your posts.

First, you make great play of squads. Rightly so, I suppose - we won't get anywhere with a weak squad. But ours is quite a bit stronger than last year, and I think most would agree with that. At the same time, some other clubs are getting weaker. Liverpool, for example, having to sell to buy (yes, a press story, but the known financial facts bear it out) and Manyoo, unable to put together a defence, but not spending the Ronaldo money. In both cases, club forced into debt by speculating profit-seeking new owners. Are their squads adequate? Probably less so than ours, but maybe they can't continue their previous policy of covering the cracks with cheques.

Second, and leading on from that, you seem to give too much respect to the other six you mention, and too little to us. I respect Arsenal as a club (but that might all go to shit in the next year as well, with the latest vulture hovering), but the others are either playboys with a new toy, or speculators trying to make a few million quid. Whether the team is up for it is another question, and I think both Liverpool and Man Citeh may have issues in that department. The full season will be a test for us, as you say, but I don't expect all of these to take it easily in their stride either.

Third, presenting a different and arguably more balanced view of our club than you is not "getting all Billy Big Bollox". Some people may suffer from hubris as you suggest. Others may just be looking at things as they develop, and drawing different conclusions than you about what may happen over the course of a season, without being arrogant about it. Blandy's posts, for example.

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Africa Cup of Nations:

The group stage games will be played from Jan 10 to Jan 21 and the final on Jan 31. And if I've heard right the players must be "released" for national duties 14 days before the first game. So the players representing their countries in Africa Cup of Nations will be out of PL action for 4-5 weeks.

This is a big blow for us because we will be missing Salifou. But it may be even worse for our top4 challenging rivals:

Song, Eboue (Arsenal)

Toure, Adebayor (Man.City)

Bassong (Spurs).

And it's really bad news for Chelsea:

Drogba, Kalou, Essien, Mikel.

So ...?

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Guest Ricardomeister

I would say that if all our strikers stay fit then we have an equal chance with Spuds and Citeh of getting 4th and I certainly would not rule out the bin dippers if Stevie GBH and the ladyboy stay fit. The one area where we are clearly vulnerable is strikers as Carew and Heskey are both injury prone and if we lost Gabby for any period of time then we will really struggle imo. If Spuds lost Defoe and Crouch they still have Keane and Pavlyuchenko. If Citeh lose Adebayor and Tevez they still have Bellamy, Santa Cruz and Robinho. Citeh and Spuds do not have great defences but I am not sure we have enough goals in us to turn draws into wins. I think we need another quality striker as a couple of goals which turn a draw into a win could easily be the difference between 4th and 7th with things being so close this season. Finding a good quality striker in January is obviously easier said than done but I really hope that MON is seriously looking at this as I am sure he knows the score.

I was one of the seemingly few who said when we were 3rd last season with 51 points from 25 games that I was pretty sure that we would not make the top 4 at the end of the season as the squad was clearly not good enough. This season we have a better squad and a good quality striker could well be the final piece in the top 4 jigsaw.

UTV SOTC

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In the interests of balance, perhaps an article of this nature was long overdue.

But it does seem to veer on the ultra-negative.

As for lessons not learned from last season, I'm not sure about that. We effectively purchased a new back four in the summer, Downing and Jimmy give us more variation in the middle of the park, though -admittedly- this is a recent phenomenon and some of our earlier season peformances were dull.

This time last year we were in the middle of an amazing unbeaten stretch, which -if we're honest- relied quite a bit on luck. Many sides gave us a shoe-ing, yet we somehow escaped with the three points.

Here's the thing though Pete, we're in a similar position this year and not much of it is down to luck. Most of the games we've won this year -even the dull ones- we've deserved to win. And the few we have lost, you could say we were unlucky. Wigan excepted.

The win at Old Trafford made the headlines for obvious reasons, but in may ways the victory just a few days later at Sunderland was equally impressive. We didn't go there and play them off the park, but we always looked in control and capable of switching up a gear if needs be - a genuine big-club peformance. There was no fear or anxiety in the latter stages of that match as there might have been last year -to the point that when Sundeland had an attacker injured in the latter stages they sent on a defender. To keep the score respectable.

You also give far too much credit to Man Citeh and Tottingham. The dynamics of a succesful and motivated football club extend far beyond transfer fee's and column inches. I accept that in the latter those two sides trump us. And on their day they are capable of brilliance. But over 38 games? Through all the variances of the English league season?

Could they, for example go to Old Trafford and turn Manure over and then do the same at the Stadium of Light a few days later? I honestly don't think they could, and it's that steel, that resolve that you ultimately need if you have designs on challenging the top 4.

We are by no means the finished article. But we have more reasons to be optimistic than most.

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  • 3 months later...
'd take sixth place right now, I really would. I think us and Spurs will be fighting for sixth come May, and I'll take beating them to that and lifting the Carling Cup as being a good, positive forward moving season

Last season towards the end, we looked a mess in defence and devoid of threat up front, while the midfield were treading treacle. We have, now, a stronger depth of back 4, without question...... . What we've done is what I wanted - grown the club and the side surely and steadily. None of this throwing money at the thing then losing patience a la Manchester City. They added Robinho and Adebayor and so on, and despite their limitless funds are a team that is part brilliant, part car crash. We are more than matching them.

I reckon we'll have more in us to stay the course and challenge till the very end.

Sounds to me as if the author is suffering from post traumatic stress disorder from last seasons collapse. Terrible article, glass half empty, miserablist drivel.

It's (the OP) unbelievably gloomy.

if someone offered me 6th right now I'd tell them to **** off.
Still. Stevo?

Guys, if you think that me saying Villa are a solid top six side but no more is overly gloomy then I suggest you pull yourselves up sharp.

I admire our grit, our determination, our effort. These are all fine and necessary qualities in a football team, but this isnt 1980 any more, it isnt enough, not by far. The top teams have genuine world class quality, and they have it in depth, and they have grit, determination and effort, and experience. We dont have that quality, sorry. I appreciate thats not going to be popular at this time, but its simply true. After 38 games the League table doesnt lie, and Villa in the top four is just that, a lie, we simply arent that good, if we were we would be able to dominate the odd game of football or at least look like the better of the two teams on show

t's not whether MON is the right guy. It's the repeated, continuous, and utterly baseless insistence that he's already demonstrated that he's the wrong guy that I can't respect .... *shakes head sadly* *walks away*
That last bit, I'm there way before you mate

it reads more like "we're overachieving, only an idiot would think we can challenge for the top 4". You state that there is absolutely no chance, not a chance, that we'll finish with more points than Tottenham (amongst others). To me that's ridiculous.

I've been around too long, seen far too many of these sorts of situations to believe that this time will be any different, because my experience, again as I wrote in the article, is that this hasnt even started yet and Villa always seem to screw it up. Give me, say 55 points after 28 games and I'll start to believe, but even then I'll be looking in the mirror to see how close Liverpool are.

s Grunthos says, the closed minded outlook that says anyone who isn't one of a select bunch of Morinho, Wenger, Benitez, Ferguson, Hiddink....cannot possibly win anything or do anything right. Again, utterly thoughtless.

two points behind united at christmas is a superb achievement
Is it?

I wrote there is no chance that we will finish above United and chelsea (ie win the League), and there is none. get over it. over 38 games we will be 15 points at least behind those clubs, they are different class to us. No shame in that...Their squads all look, I dont know, more developed, more talented. I believe, that over the second half the season, liverpool and Arsenal in particular will be stronger, much stronger, they always are....Someone else implied that our team from 1980-81 had grit and determination and that was enough, I was merely responding that you know what, great, I was there and I agree. but that isnt enough today....our opponents are bloody good and bloody experienced. this is the best league in the world. To finish sixth in this League considering the opposition this season would be a really good achievement .... I think you underestimate greatly what is required. the team that finishes fourth in this League will be one of the best teams in Europe, historically you would say capable of launching a serious bid for the Champions League title next season. Look at our squad, and ask yourself that question, are we that good?

We need serious strengthening in the striking department and not the James Beatties of this worldbut serious top class striking ability to come in and score 10 or so goals between Jan and May to give us that chance.

This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.
Little worth Jon?

ou also give far too much credit to Man Citeh and Tottingham. The dynamics of a succesful and motivated football club extend far beyond transfer fee's and column inches. I accept that in the latter those two sides trump us. And on their day they are capable of brilliance. But over 38 games? Through all the variances of the English league season?

So, where are we today lads?

Time to re-evaluate I would suggest

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Last season towards the end, we looked a mess in defence and devoid of threat up front, while the midfield were treading treacle. We have, now, a stronger depth of back 4, without question...... . What we've done is what I wanted - grown the club and the side surely and steadily. None of this throwing money at the thing then losing patience a la Manchester City. They added Robinho and Adebayor and so on, and despite their limitless funds are a team that is part brilliant, part car crash. We are more than matching them.

As Grunthos says, the closed minded outlook that says anyone who isn't one of a select bunch of Morinho, Wenger, Benitez, Ferguson, Hiddink....cannot possibly win anything or do anything right. Again, utterly thoughtless.

So, where are we today lads?

Time to re-evaluate I would suggest

It's always time to re-evaluate, particularly at the end of the season. But as of this minute, I'll stick with about 95% of what I said back then. City changed their manager and got back some consistency, and are now a couple of wins ahead of us and looking good for 4th. That said we have had a a final and a semi in the other cup, which they didn't manage. The rest I'll stick with. The Club has grown since last season, MO'N has done many things right, as have Moyes, Hodgson, and others not part of the "elite". It is possible for more than just the usual suspects do have good seasons.

I'm OK with this season. I've enjoyed the trips to Wembley, I've loved them infact, 10 years was too long to wait. I've enjoyed looking at the way Milner has developed and slotted in to centre midfield. Other players, too have improved - Gabby for a start. There are things I'm not pleased with, but I'm not downhearted overall, far from it.

And looking at my response on the first page, again, I don't think there's much in it I now feel differently about. Maybe I'm missing something, maybe it's just 2 sides of the same coin, but nah....I'm fine with what I said then and what I feel now.

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This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.
Little worth Jon?

i apologised to Mart, when much of what he professed has come to pass, so I will afford you the same decency Pete.

It was still an excessively negative article at the time IMO, but you may well have been a soothsayer, sadly, so apologies for not affording your negative thoughts more worth.

I really thought MON had learnt from the mistakes of seasons prior. Seemingly not. We have hit the buffers again post February, for exactly the same reasons as last season.

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I really thought MON had learnt from the mistakes of seasons prior. Seemingly not. We have hit the buffers again post February, for exactly the same reasons as last season.

It will be the same reasons next year too i fear..

Can you see MON suddenly next season after turning to Europe and increasing the quality of squad to suddenly start rotating it, resting players before March?

Would be a massive u turn on his part and why i have always said MON can only take us so far...

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but you may well have been a soothsayer,.

I dont think it was necessary to be a soothsayer. What prompted the article was that we had, in the build up to Arsenal away played 5 games in 16 days and picked the same starting 11 in every game

If MON had confidence in his squad he would have started 15 or 16 players in that situation.

As he clearly had no confidence in his squad, it was clear that he would run the players he had confidence in into the ground

To give those players the credit they deserve they have bounced back from that abysmal showing at Wembley really very well, and I'm delighted to see us still hanging around the fringes. if we can win at Eastlands we'll actually have half a chance (assuming we beat Blues too). So credit where its due

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