Not Counting any Chickens Yet

[Demitri_C]

But this isnt about O'Neill, who I think is actually doing a pretty decent job

i think he is doing a lot better than pretty decent to be fair PB, two points behind united at christmas is a superb achievement. ok it may not end like this come may but it gives us a shot. look at city, spurs and everton they would all love to be in our position in the league.

i dont agree with your point about us not adding enough quality. downing looks superb player and gives us a number of options, dunney has been exceptional and collins is a class above knight.

warnock for me has been superb, and players like beye, delph etc make good squad players for us. we are definately in a stronger position than last year but i do agree it is still way to early to be talking about top 4, if we are where we are by april then i may start to BELIEVE!

[PB]

Strange, Pete. First there's no chance of finishing above the Sky 4 plus Spurs and Man City, then there is, then....

Hmm, think you need to read more closely

If you read that again I wrote there is no chance that we will finish above United and chelsea (ie win the League), and there is none. get over it. over 38 games we will be 15 points at least behind those clubs, they are different class to us. No shame in that

I also wrote that in my opinion these other clubs (Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Man city) have imho better and deeper squads than us, more quality and so over the course of the season *should* do better than us. Will they? I dont know. it seems unlikely to me that we would finish above three of them, which is what we would need to do in order to finish top four. Their squads all look, I dont know, more developed, more talented. I believe, that over the second half the season, liverpool and Arsenal in particular will be stronger, much stronger, they always are. Will we? I dont know, its an open question, we and just about all of our players are totally unproven at this level, these others have nothing to prove to anyone, they have been there, done that, got the tshirt. I would expect, based upon my experience, that over a season that will tell in the final points tally. We shall see.

You can deride the importance of having an experienced manager all you like, but last year Wenger ate O'Neill for breakfast. No contest. In the second half of the campaign Wenger kept his cool and stuck to his principles, because he knew he had the better team. O'Neill didnt.

most of all enjoy it, have fun. Things are good today, who knows what tomorrow brings. I do feel that at the games a set of fans who express their joy and happiness with the players and manager will enjoy the games more, and better still help spur on those people to greater efforts. If we're going to play a part it might as well be a supportive one, rather than the role of doomsayers.

You see, this pisses me off. Because, again, if you actually chose to read what i wrote, instead of scan reading it and forming a false impression, you'd see that I wrote, quite clearly, that i am really enjoying it. but I'm taking it one game at a time. I'm being realistic, I'm not getting carried away on some silly wave of euphoria based around half a dozen decent performances. I've been around too long.

Did I say we were stuck in the 80s? No, that desperately unfair. Someone else implied that our team from 1980-81 had grit and determination and that was enough, I was merely responding that you know what, great, I was there and I agree. but that isnt enough today. I dont think we're stuck in the 80s at all, and I have not expressed that opinion in this piece or in any of my replies, so once again, please read what I actually wrote, not what you thought I did. I thought more of you than that Blandy

[PB]

two points behind united at christmas is a superb achievement.!

I think this more or less sums up what I'm saying

No it isnt. no it isnt a superb achievement. its meaningless in terms of 'achievements'. Its December. If we are two points away from united in may, thats a superb achievement.

We havent done anything yet, thats what I'm saying, and there is a long way to go and our opponents are bloody good and bloody experienced. this is the best league in the world. To finish sixth in this League considering the opposition this season would be a really good achievement

To finish fourth? Wow, I think you underestimate greatly what is required. the team that finishes fourth in this League will be one of the best teams in Europe, historically you would say capable of launching a serious bid for the Champions League title next season. Look at our squad, and ask yourself that question, are we that good?

[Richard]

I absolutely agree with the article.

I also think the January window will be crucial for us, crucial to see if we are prepared to compete. We need serious strengthening in the striking department and not the James Beatties of this worldbut serious top class striking ability to come in and score 10 or so goals between Jan and May to give us that chance.

Can't see that happening and for that reason I do not think we will stay the course.

[alienvillan]

I like the OP half term analysis. It's as pessimistic as it can be and I believe it was also meant to be. "Down to earth" and intentionally (?) too much of that. It's also realistic, IMO.

Looking at the league table, we were here ten months ago. What happened last season might happen again. Of course, the manager and the players have learnt from that experience and we have a stronger squad (in some areas).

Injuries played a big part last season. Fabregas was out for a lengthy period and everybody knows how important player he is for Arsenal. They struggled without him and when he came back fit and running they just couldn't be stopped.

Now they have van Persie injured, and Fabregas too, again. Liverpool have been struggling without Torres and Gerrard this season. Hughes just couldn't win and now they (Man.C) have Mancini, probably a big threat there. Without injuries (to key players) those clubs/teams will have strong second halves of the season.

Spurs are an on/off team, exciting and creative but not so solid or stable. It they can fix their defensive problems they will be a serious top4 challenger.

We are not a top4 club yet, far (20 games) from it. But it's looking good, better than last season.

[Stevo985]

It's not realistic though. Realistic and down to earth would be"look guys, we're in a good position, we'll give it a go, but ultimately we'll fall short"

But as I said above, the article reads like "Don't kid yourself, we have zero chance of getting anywhere near the top 4, we aren't very good"

PB has explained above that he may nothave meant it to sound as defeatist as it does, but that's certainly as it reads imo.

Again, I have no problemwith people thinking we won't finish in the top 4, and I completely agree that the position we are in now meansnothing over a 38 game season. It's all about the position in May. It's the complete writing off of our chances that gets to me. I just don't understand it in a time of such a good run of form, where we were in February/March last year and how better equipped we are to cope with a run in now. Yes we might, in fact we'llprobably,, fall short of 4th. ButI'd put good money on us putting up a better fight than last season.

[alienvillan]

I think this is a hilarious battle between "celebrating our top4 status after 18 games" and "writing off of our chances".

I think it's realistic to be down to earth with this. If we are 4th in May then we can start celebrating.

[Stevo985]

It is realistic to be down to earth. But down to earth isn't

there is absolutely no chance, zero, nil, nada, nowt, none of Villa acquiring more points over a 38 game season than .. Manchester United and Chelsea, never mind the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and even our old friends Tottenham. Our squad cannot match the quality and depth of those squads, and over a full season that will be exposed, as it was last

Saying we have zero chance of finishing ahead of Spurs is beyond "Down to Earth".

[blandy]

Strange, Pete. First there's no chance of finishing above the Sky 4 plus Spurs and Man City, then there is, then....

Hmm, think you need to read more closely

No Pete, you do.

there is absolutely no chance, zero, nil, nada, nowt, none of Villa acquiring more points over a 38 game season than the football point machines which are Manchester United and Chelsea, never mind the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and even our old friends Tottenham. Our squad cannot match the quality and depth of those squads, and over a full season that will be exposed, as it was last. We can, to be topical, Rage Against The Machine by believing little old Villa with our superior team ethic and our work rate and our annoying, if media savvy, manager have what it takes to compete, but its a delusion.

All of our competitors have, to be blunt, better football players than us in most positions on the pitch (defence excepted perhaps, in some cases), they have more strength in depth and with the exception of Tottenham more experience of being in the mix when the pressure kicks in than we do. All of them (again with the exception of Spurs) have managers who have won titles and/or European Cups, managers who have a proven record of going the distance without imploding under the pressure. Our manager has the exact opposite record.

That's unedited or abbreviated what you wrote. It's on the first page. No chance of finishing above Man U chelsea, never mind the other ones...we can't compete, it's a delusion. You said it. I read it.

If you read that again I wrote there is no chance that we will finish above United and chelsea (ie win the League), and there is none. get over it. over 38 games we will be 15 points at least behind those clubs, they are different class to us. No shame in that

I also wrote that in my opinion these other clubs (Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Man city) have imho better and deeper squads than us, more quality and so over the course of the season *should* do better than us.

That's not what you said in the first article. But it's a view that's more balanced, I think.

most of all enjoy it, have fun. Things are good today, who knows what tomorrow brings. I do feel that at the games a set of fans who express their joy and happiness with the players and manager will enjoy the games more, and better still help spur on those people to greater efforts. If we're going to play a part it might as well be a supportive one, rather than the role of doomsayers.

You see, this pisses me off. Because, again, if you actually chose to read what i wrote, instead of scan reading it and forming a false impression, you'd see that I wrote, quite clearly, that i am really enjoying it. but I'm taking it one game at a time. I'm being realistic, I'm not getting carried away on some silly wave of euphoria based around half a dozen decent performances. I've been around too long.

Sorry Pete, but I took

I'm already dreading the team selections in the cup matches ....it nags at me that like last season its a bubble waiting to burst. We cant keep getting away with it.

to mean that you were in dread and there's a nagging fear of failure, that is (I assumed) stopping you enjoying the games. I accept you said you were chuffed to bits with the results v Chelsea Liverpool and Man U, but read the caveat about the other games, and thought that being pleased with the results in those games isn't the same thing as enjoying the games. If you are enjoying the games and the season, rather than just what you see as an inevitable falling off of results as the team you say isn't as strong as our rivals stops "getting away with it" then I've not understood, or you've not written clearly how you are feeling. Also the doomsayers and fans at the games comments - they're not specific to you, or even aimed at you, It's my view on the wider issues that just your article.

Did I say we were stuck in the 80s? No, that desperately unfair. Someone else implied that our team from 1980-81 had grit and determination and that was enough, I was merely responding that you know what, great, I was there and I agree. but that isn't enough today. I dont think we're stuck in the 80s at all, and I have not expressed that opinion in this piece or in any of my replies, so once again, please read what I actually wrote, not what you thought I did. I thought more of you than that Blandy

Sorry on that one. My comment wasn't aimed at you on that, and I should have said so. There are people who've said it, and IMO they're wrong.

[alienvillan]

It is realistic to be down to earth. But down to earth isn't

there is absolutely no chance, zero, nil, nada, nowt, none of Villa acquiring more points over a 38 game season than .. Manchester United and Chelsea, never mind the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and even our old friends Tottenham. Our squad cannot match the quality and depth of those squads, and over a full season that will be exposed, as it was last

Saying we have zero chance of finishing ahead of Spurs is beyond "Down to Earth".

I agree, zero chance to beat Spurs is nonsense. But I believe the writer was exaggerating and using too strong words .. and that usually is a mistake.

My valuation:

We have 50-60% chance of finishing ahead of Spurs.

We have 40-60% chance of finishing ahead of Man.City.

We have 50% chance of finishing ahead of Liverpool.

We have 10% chance of finishing ahead of Arsenal.

We have zero chance of finishing ahead of Chelsea and Man.Utd.

And we have 90-95% chance of finishing ahead of Birmingham City.

I think the day 37 and 38 will be very stressful for us, Liverpool, Man.City and Tottenham.

[alienvillan]

Did I say we were stuck in the 80s? No, that desperately unfair. Someone else implied that our team from 1980-81 had grit and determination and that was enough, I was merely responding that you know what, great, I was there and I agree. but that isn't enough today. I dont think we're stuck in the 80s at all, and I have not expressed that opinion in this piece or in any of my replies, so once again, please read what I actually wrote, not what you thought I did. I thought more of you than that Blandy

Sorry on that one. My comment wasn't aimed at you on that, and I should have said so. There are people who've said it, and IMO they're wrong.

I might have said, and I would say again, that "we were stuck in the 80s" from Stoke 2-2 last season to Downing's Villa debut - and Milner's switch to CM - this season.

[Stevo985]

It is realistic to be down to earth. But down to earth isn't

there is absolutely no chance, zero, nil, nada, nowt, none of Villa acquiring more points over a 38 game season than .. Manchester United and Chelsea, never mind the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and even our old friends Tottenham. Our squad cannot match the quality and depth of those squads, and over a full season that will be exposed, as it was last

Saying we have zero chance of finishing ahead of Spurs is beyond "Down to Earth".

I agree, zero chance to beat Spurs is nonsense. But I believe the writer was exaggerating and using too strong words .. and that usually is a mistake.

I agree, and PB above said that wasn't what he meant. But it's still how the article reads.

[Jon]

Sounds to me as if the author is suffering from post traumatic stress disorder from last seasons collapse. Terrible article, glass half empty, miserablist drivel.

I would like to subscribe to both this viewpoint, and Mr Bland's lengthier expose.

This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.

This from one of the better posters on this site too.

Bozzy: you have been quiet of late, possibly due to our resurgence?

At the start of this season you wanted MON gone, and believed he had "lost the plot". Clearly, you have not re-evaluated that position in the light of contrary evidence, which IMO is your achilles heel.

[Jon]

.... Terrible article....

There's a difference between disagreeing with something and that something being "terrible".

It's PB's view, he's written and explained it well, and while neither of us agree with him, it's unfair and ungracious to call it terrible. It's not. It's a different outlook to yours or mine.

A well written article with terrible opinions then, perhaps?

[Jon]

I absolutely agree with the article.

I also think the January window will be crucial for us, crucial to see if we are prepared to compete. We need serious strengthening in the striking department and not the James Beatties of this worldbut serious top class striking ability to come in and score 10 or so goals between Jan and May to give us that chance.

Can't see that happening and for that reason I do not think we will stay the course.

So nothing to do with MON not having a winning mentality then Richard?

[Richard]

Jon, yes partly to do with the lack of "winning mentality", the prepared to compete part of the statement I think covers that. But not only

Sorry if my opinion causes offence mate

[Jez]

I would like to subscribe to both this viewpoint, and Mr Bland's lengthier expose.

This negative stuff from Bozzy is not new, but it's ridiculously one eyed against MON and the boys, and holds little worth IMO.

This from one of the better posters on this site too.

Bozzy: you have been quiet of late, possibly due to our resurgence?

At the start of this season you wanted MON gone, and believed he had "lost the plot". Clearly, you have not re-evaluated that position in the light of contrary evidence, which IMO is your achilles heel.

This is something i would expect of BJ Jon, not you.

It smarts of... anyone with a slightly pessimistic view is just wrong!

Which i'm sure you'll agree is ridiculous!

[PB]

I'm told that some aspects of this blog post may be unclear. Let me summarise

1. It is my belief and opinion that of the seven clubs I mention as competitors in this article, our squad is the weakest in most aspects. it is close in some cases, but overall that is my evaluation. This is clearly a matter of subjective opinion based upon nothing other than my watching these teams play this season. If you disagree with this premise, as you are clearly entitled to, then clearly you arent going to agree with the article, fair enough, but leave out the abuse pls

2. Our squad is considerably weaker than either Manchester United or Chelsea, to the point that it is ridiculous to even consider us as competitors to them. If you disagree with that, then of course that is clearly your prerogative. For me its very clear. So that leaves 4.

3. These four clubs, specifically Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City, should, given their squads, finish above us over a 38 game campaign. It isnt nailed on by any means, but that would be my expectation especially given that we are likely to be the only one of these to keep our chequebook shut next month. Therefore, if we can finish sixth, and therefore finish above one of them, we will have done really pretty well (especially if we add to that some silverware). I'd be pleased with that as a season and would consider it, all things considered, as a step up from last season. Finishing fifth, and therefore beating two of them, well, that would really be a significant achievement. I'd be really delighted with that.

4. My personal belief is that beating three of these, and finishing fourth, is too much to ask of this group of players. It is possible, there are sixty points left to play for, and we will need something like 40 of those, possibly a little less, but I think its too much. Again, this is my subjective opinion and you are free to disagree. This would be truly a magnificent achievement, almost unbelievably so. I dont think we have the ability, the experience or the leadership, but hope to be proven wrong.

5. Enjoy it, we are up here competing with the big boys, but look fellas, dont get all Billy big bollox. The attitude that comes over from some is one of extreme hubris. I suggest winding it in, we have done nothing yet, nothing at all, and the team can probably do without that pressure.

Thats all, apologies for any misunderstandings. I'm going to now edge towards the door and wish you all a merry Christmas and a Happy New year. I hope 2010 brings us what we deserve.

PB

(and jon, no the reason I havent been around of late has nothing to do with our resurgence, you will note I havent been around since September which is when the OU starts. Something has to give way to studying, and for me its Villa Talk. if I was as you imply worried by our resurgence then this would be a pretty daft time to post again wouldnt it? Furthermore, at no point have I ever wanted MON gone. I have never said that, or indeed implied that, I challenge you to find a post that says different. No need to make things up to support your argument, thanks.)

[sled]

Nothing is completely and utterly impossible, not even a Premiership title or a drop down towards the relegation zone.

However I find the above all extremely logical and unobjectionable, as indeed I found the original post. Far more so than either of the extremes I've mentioned. Surely many others do too (?) Season's greetings to you PB.

[SumoVillan]

It is a rare occasion that I don't agree with Pete having followed his pearls of wisdon since his "Teamtalk" days, but on this occasion our opinions differ.

Chelsea do have quality in every position but outside of them, I have to question most of the points Pete has made.

Liverpool have some shocking players at present. Outside of Gerrard and Torres, I wouldn't swap a single player in the Villa first team for a Liverpool player. Admittedly Gerrard and Torres are genuine world class but the rest are either good (Carragher/Reyna) or mediocre to poor.

Put Gerrard and Torres in the Villa team however and we would be pushing Chelsea for top spot in my opinion.

Villa's worst squad players are now mediocre players and those are mostly on the bench and can do a job. Most of the starting 11 are good players in my view.

I agree that Villa lack world class talent in any position, but who doesn't outside of Chelsea?

Man U have Rooney, Liverpool I've already covered, Arsenal have Febregas & Van Persie, (on the rare occasions they are fit), along with Arsharvin.

Spurs are full of mediocre to good players as are Man City, who also have a couple of poor ones thrown in for good measure.

Villa won't push on from here until we can secure champions league football, as genuine world class talent won't settle for mere premier league football, except those odd mercenares who want Man City wages.

Villa will need a couple of top, top players to really bridge the gap but they will simply not be interested in Villa right now.

Villa do currently have some of the best domestic talent around at present and I think this is all we can aspire to if we aren't able to push up the league into the top 4.

I agree we were outclassed by Spurs on the day, but every team, no matter how good, comes against a team who really hit their stride in a particular match, or a style of play they just don't cope well with.

Look at Villa's recent record against Chelsea. Something about the way we play clearly doesn't agree with them, but they are obviously a better team than Villa, even if the recent head to heads don't reflect this.

Just goes to show, sometimes even the best can have an off day. The ability to grind out results like we did against Spurs and Stoke when we have been outclassed is a positive. There will always be odd games teams don't deserve to win and the ability to get away with a "bad one" is a defining characteristic of the "top 4".

I think Villa have a realistic chance of competing for 4th place. Spurs, Villa and Liverpool are all equally vunerable and who knows what effect the change of manager will have at City. I do know their defence is terrible at present, so if that continues, they will probably be just as hit and miss as the other contenders.

Also, of these four contenders, I don't really believe any of them have a significant advantage in term of seeing out a winning campaign under pressure. Even Arsenal do not have more experience than Villa in my view. Their first 11 has won nothing, just like us.

Villa have a far better defence both on the pitch and on the bench than last year. This, in my view, will make a difference this year.

Time will tell, but I genuinely believe that whilst Villa will have slips along the way, so will Spurs and Liverpool. Citeh...who knows?

For me, if we can at least get a share of the points from the Arsenal and Liverpool games over xmas, there is reason for optimism in 2010.