drat01 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 To try and spin this as "good news" is really pushing the Tory credibility even further into the realms of make believe. So the country which due primarily down to the god awful policies of the Tory party has just suffered a major double dip recession. Cameron (who broke so many rules by mentioning this at PMQ) now claims that this signals a brighter future conveniently ignoring the many factors of what caused the mess, the one off impacts of the Olympics and other factors as mentioned above. One of the reasons that recessions are measured over more than one quarter is that "blips" are not taken as clear indicators of what is happening. In my job we are seeing massive reductions in spending across many sectors and the real results of the impacts of the austerity cuts are very evident in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ford closing down factories and laying off 1400 in the UK The above is exactly why stating that the "good news" the Tories are claiming is somewhat silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 To try and spin this as "good news" is really pushing the Tory credibility even further into the realms of make believe. So the country which due primarily down to the god awful policies of the Tory party has just suffered a major double dip recession. Cameron (who broke so many rules by mentioning this at PMQ) now claims that this signals a brighter future conveniently ignoring the many factors of what caused the mess, the one off impacts of the Olympics and other factors as mentioned above. One of the reasons that recessions are measured over more than one quarter is that "blips" are not taken as clear indicators of what is happening. In my job we are seeing massive reductions in spending across many sectors and the real results of the impacts of the austerity cuts are very evident in business. Would you have preferred the recession to carry on? Actually, don't bother answering that. As for Ford, their sales are down 10% in Europe. You know, because of the the problems in the Eurozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would you have preferred the recession to carry on? Actually, don't bother answering that. As for Ford, their sales are down 10% in Europe. You know, because of the the problems in the Eurozone. well yes it was sort of my point Risso. Surely positive growth for the economy is better than the negative growth we have had and thus by its very nature good news. I can only speculate on why it would not be viewed as good news, but ho hum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 (edited) I can only speculate on why it would not be viewed as good news, but ho hum How about the detail, Richard? Surely positive growth for the economy is better than the negative growth... Negative growth? Edited October 26, 2012 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted October 26, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted October 26, 2012 well yes it was sort of my point Risso. Surely positive growth for the economy is better than the negative growth we have had and thus by its very nature good news. I can only speculate on why it would not be viewed as good news, but ho hum Not necessarily. Change in an aggregate quantity is only necessarily desirable or undesirable if the economy is in general equilibrium. Whether the economy is in general equilibrium is far from apparent (and indeed, I'd lean towards arguing that it can never be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 To try and spin this as "good news" is really pushing the Tory credibility even further into the realms of make believe. You're right, it's terrible news. So the country which due primarily down to the god awful policies of the Tory party has just suffered a major double dip recession. As the article by AEP linked by Peter on the last page addresses, the problems in the real economy are caused by a lack of bank lending, not cuts that are, in the context of total government spend, really quite small. Until the banks fess up to the true depth of the hole they are in and write down/off the bad debt (and no more bailouts, let them go if they are wrecked) then the economy will continue to bump along the bottom with some negative and some positive Q's. This point has been made many times in these threads by myself and others, over a period of years now.. Cameron...conveniently ignoring the many factors of what caused the mess... I don't think he misses many chances to remind the country of Labour's contribution to the current mess we are in, but as you bring it up... Brown, Balls and little Ed Miliband were the architects of an economic policy that encouraged the foxes in the City to raid the chicken coop - and they virtually destroyed private pensions, flogged the gold reserves at bargain basement prices, etc, etc. In my job we are seeing massive reductions in spending across many sectors and the real results of the impacts of the austerity cuts are very evident in business. I think you misdiagnose the problem, and before you say it yes I am abroad, but still do business in an out of the UK on a weekly basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well said Mr WOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Would you have preferred the recession to carry on? Actually, don't bother answering that. As for Ford, their sales are down 10% in Europe. You know, because of the the problems in the Eurozone. Why would I want the recession to carry on that is a rediculous statement. The reality is simple though and one that the Tory party and its supporters do not want people to consider is that this is not the fantastic news they are making it to be. There are still many many problems, a lot caused by the idiocy of the policies being imposed by Gideon et al that are stifiling the small chance of growth that we have. Funny how there was no blam on the weather or some other random event for this set of figures. Drink your champagne to celebrate Gideon's con, while the majority still consider the impacts of being out of work or with the threat of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The construction industry is shrinking at about £1bn a month in the UK or about 1%. Terrible times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You're right, it's terrible news. As the article by AEP linked by Peter on the last page addresses, the problems in the real economy are caused by a lack of bank lending, not cuts that are, in the context of total government spend, really quite small. Until the banks fess up to the true depth of the hole they are in and write down/off the bad debt (and no more bailouts, let them go if they are wrecked) then the economy will continue to bump along the bottom with some negative and some positive Q's. This point has been made many times in these threads by myself and others, over a period of years now.. I don't think he misses many chances to remind the country of Labour's contribution to the current mess we are in, but as you bring it up... Brown, Balls and little Ed Miliband were the architects of an economic policy that encouraged the foxes in the City to raid the chicken coop - and they virtually destroyed private pensions, flogged the gold reserves at bargain basement prices, etc, etc. I think you misdiagnose the problem, and before you say it yes I am abroad, but still do business in an out of the UK on a weekly basis. So cuts are not causing any supression in growth? Interesting concept you have there, maybe your lack of time in the UK - (and funny how two Tory supporters who think this is great news dont actually live in the UK), has missed the genuine concern that many have with the economy. You seem to say that its all the fault of the banks lending. Now remind me again who has been banging on a big soundbite drum about how he will make them lend etc? How does that work then? Or are you saying that the Tory party could / should have done better? :-) - the "ahhh but Labour ..." line has made its appearance, I wondered when it would. So on one hand its world events, then its the banks fault, then it's Labour anyone but the Tory party so it seems. Interesting concept especially as they are the ones in power, they are the ones that have imposed so many of the policies that the general bloke in the street is suffering with now. I am sure that the workers at the Ford factories are happy that they are on the dole now, maybe they can become one of the many scroungers that the Tory party and its supporters keep bleating on about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So cuts are not causing any supression in growth? Interesting concept you have there, maybe your lack of time in the UK - (and funny how two Tory supporters who think this is great news dont actually live in the UK)... Did you even read the last sentence of my post? lol. has missed the genuine concern that many have with the economy. Er, no. The problem with the economy hasn't passed me by, it is our diagnosis of the problem that differs. You seem to say that its all the fault of the banks lending. It is the root of the problem, yes. Now remind me again who has been banging on a big soundbite drum about how he will make them lend etc? How does that work then? Or are you saying that the Tory party could / should have done better? Yes they absolutely should have done better, and it's still not too late imo, unfortunately the best time to force bankers into behavioural change was when they were on their knees in 2008. Instead the government of the day chose to use our money to bail them out with no strings attached and the real opportunity was missed. I and others said that at the time on here as well. the "ahhh but Labour ..." line has made its appearance, I wondered when it would. So on one hand its world events, then its the banks fault, then it's Labour anyone but the Tory party so it seems. Again, you are either not reading or deliberately misreading what is being written. Labour set the framework within which the banks went crazy and egged them on from the sidelines. You may feel that Labour bear no responsibility for the subsequent disaster, I don't. Equally I think the current government are going down a blind alley because they refuse to address the underlying structural problems in the economy by bringing the banks to heel. I am sure that the workers at the Ford factories are happy that they are on the dole now, maybe they can become one of the many scroungers that the Tory party and its supporters keep bleating on about? See Risso's post above, there really isn't anything else to add to that subject. Finally and for the umpteenth time, I am not a Tory supporter but voted for them last time because the alternatives as PM were Gordon Brown (literally barking mad) or Nick Clegg (the political equivalent of smegma). It won't stop you repeating it again but hey, I'm used to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Maybe the energy companies should now be blamed or is that Labour's fault also? EDF announce price rises in enegry of over 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Maybe the energy companies should now be blamed or is that Labour's fault also? EDF announce price rises in enegry of over 10% Would you mind explaining the relevance of your post, please? I don't understand what a French energy company has to do with the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Did you even read the last sentence of my post? lol. Er, no. The problem with the economy hasn't passed me by, it is our diagnosis of the problem that differs. It is the root of the problem, yes. Yes they absolutely should have done better, and it's still not too late imo, unfortunately the best time to force bankers into behavioural change was when they were on their knees in 2008. Instead the government of the day chose to use our money to bail them out with no strings attached and the real opportunity was missed. I and others said that at the time on here as well. Again, you are either not reading or deliberately misreading what is being written. Labour set the framework within which the banks went crazy and egged them on from the sidelines. You may feel that Labour bear no responsibility for the subsequent disaster, I don't. Equally I think the current government are going down a blind alley because they refuse to address the underlying structural problems in the economy by bringing the banks to heel. See Risso's post above, there really isn't anything else to add to that subject. Finally and for the umpteenth time, I am not a Tory supporter but voted for them last time because the alternatives as PM were Gordon Brown (literally barking mad) or Nick Clegg (the political equivalent of smegma). It won't stop you repeating it again but hey, I'm used to that. I read your point re not living in this country and thought it was interesting that you and Risso both live and work outside of the UK but are very vocal in your support for the Tory policies but see little in terms of impact, hence the comment Re the bankers, but you still fail to say what can / should be done now. Why when Cameron et al spout off the usual soundbites about control, (while still receiving massive political donations from them) and they do nothing, is that Labour's fault. Cameron is in charge, he comes out with this BS about control but panders more and more to their every demand citing "they may leave the country" and all that bollox. Where have I said that the last Gvmt was not part of a problem? Your (and the fellow Tory supporters) viewpoints are always "ahhh but Labour ..." which is now a meaningless argument especially as the policies of this Gvmt are those that are causing many of the problems. As has been said on many many times there is a world problem, there is also a UK problem.The World problem is not solved by isolationist economic polices. The UK problems can be helped by different policies to the single "Plan A" that we have from Gideon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drat01 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Would you mind explaining the relevance of your post, please? I don't understand what a French energy company has to do with the discussion. Maybe not living in this country you don't feel the impact of the massive increase by the energy companies - and the irony of them being French is quite amusing especially considering your stance on Europe and the Tory party privatisation in the past. I thought this was a thread re the economy, again you may not see or feel this, but the energy increases - despite Cameron saying he would get "tough" on these also - will seriously impact a lot of people especially those at teh lower end of the economic ladder - or the "underclass" as the QT panel members liked to call them lat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Change in an aggregate quantity is only necessarily desirable or undesirable if the economy is in general equilibrium. Whether the economy is in general equilibrium is far from apparent (and indeed, I'd lean towards arguing that it can never be). Yes. GDP seems to be the main thing that people look at, which is unhelpful. Yesterday the BBC news led with an image of the word "recession" being knocked off a plinth and replaced with "growth", which is a trite and misleading presentation of what's happening. Looking at construction and production sinking down, and "services" going up, and GDP hovering at around zero or a tiny fraction above (until the revised figures come out; usually a downwards revision), and concluding that the recession is over, is just daft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes. GDP seems to be the main thing that people look at, which is unhelpful. Yesterday the BBC news led with an image of the word "recession" being knocked off a plinth and replaced with "growth", which is a trite and misleading presentation of what's happening. Looking at construction and production sinking down, and "services" going up, and GDP hovering at around zero or a tiny fraction above (until the revised figures come out; usually a downwards revision), and concluding that the recession is over, is just daft. quite agree, but i don't think many are suggesting its over. I liken it to the Villa, if we win tomorrow, it'll be good news, doesn't mean I think we'll win the league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ahh good old Walrasian equilibrium at work, I wonder what the comparative statics of the micro guys are telling them, or the DSGE models of the macro-men, my guess is **** all. I don't think any harm to the discipline of economics would be done if most of the equilibrium 'thinking' were thrown out all together. Macro would be better off with a balance sheet approach and agent based modelling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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