peterms Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 What? The Telegraph says that austerity policies are self-defeating and mistaken? Strange days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eames Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I think you've misinterpreted a gargantuan piece of Euroscepticism and applied it to Osbourne is up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I think you've misinterpreted a gargantuan piece of Euroscepticism and applied it to Osbourne is up to. ...The "fiscal multiplier" is not the hallowed 0.5 assumed by every finance ministry in Europe. The awful evidence since the global bubble burst in 2008-2009 is that the multiplier is between 0.9 and 1.7, or even higher for EMU's crucifixion belt. The model constructed over the long boom years -- and largely drawn from isolated cases, each able to export its way out of trouble -- is dangerously wrong in a 1930s-style excess savings crisis with much of the world is slump.... He may be a eurosceptic. The argument he makes is however not specific to the eurozone. He says that the IMF have admitted they have miscalculated the multiplier; that this means that cuts will shrink the economy, not result in "expansionary fiscal contraction"; and that the policies based on this are therefore wrong. He doesn't mention Osborne. The argument he makes is wholly applicable to Osborne's policies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ads Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I don't think the Government has been pro-active enough with their responses via tax and infrastructure. Cameron was standing atop the biggest Warship ever undertaken behind the Nimitz class today. Surely it would be beneficial to guarantee the extra £3 billion for its sister ship? The amount of tech and industry going into these platforms is astounding. Jobs, development and security. I always thought that defence spending was a good way to give the economy a wee boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Well the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel went to a couple of yanks Lloyd Shepley and Alvin Roth for inventing the 'matching algorithm' which basically finds optimal matches between e.g. pairs and groups of people. It has been used to match students to schools, organs to donors etc. It has also been used to model market failures (i.e. when the price 'mechanism' breaks down). It's pretty interesting stuff and has, unlike most of economics, been empirically tested and used in experiments. Shepley is the mathematical brains behind it, Roth is the one that applied it to economic/social 'problems'. Interesting endorsement of empirical microeconomics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 John Kay is always worth reading. Despite being a capitalist and adviser on markets, he is informed, wise, nuanced, and sensible. This piece hangs its hat on the BAE/EADS merger (some of our readers may have better information) but speaks more widely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 18, 2012 Moderator Share Posted October 18, 2012 That's a very good comment article, peterms. I rather suspect a lot of the people working at companies like those 2 mentioned might very well share the author's view, as well as many shareholders. Personally, I always like to see evidence of intelligent questioning, and John Kay absolutely nails it with his summary. The bloke should be an engineer, with that approach. And what he nails is the predeliction to do things based on policy, rather than to form policy based on fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Comet has been put up for sale again Not looking too rosy for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 And what he nails is the predeliction to do things based on policy, rather than to form policy based on fact. Here's one on evidence and policy, relating to economic policies: Badgers and austerity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legov Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Snowy, Snowy, where art thou? What I am saying is that the basis and framework for that analysis (beyond an academic exercise) is wrong. Elaborate. Doesn't matter' date=' they are all about making profit, no?[/quote'] Of course it does and not necessarily (getting the greatest return for each' date=' perhaps).[/quote'] You mentioned that investors were not a monolithic group as they had different interests - short, medium, long-term. However, no matter how long-term the investor's outlook is, the primary motive is still profit - the only difference is how patient the investor will be with his investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Snowy, Snowy, where art thou? Not ignoring you and I will try and elaborate later or over the weekend. On the second part, returns can come in forms other than just profit (and cash), so it's not just a matter of timescale. Further, The primary motive is still profit (even if correct which I'm not sure about) does not equate to a situation where profits have to be maximized in each fiscal period (and ignoring the consequences on subsequent periods) in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legov Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Not ignoring you and I will try and elaborate later or over the weekend. It was intended to be humorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 It was intended to be humorous. No worries; it was taken as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20078231 The UK economy emerged from recession in the three months from July to September, helped by the Olympic Games. The economy grew by 1.0%, according to official gross domestic product figures (GDP), which measure the value of everything produced in the country. The Office for National Statistics said that Olympic ticket sales had added 0.2 percentage points to the figures. The figures are welcome news for business and ministers, said the BBC's economics editor Stephanie Flanders. "The positive 'surprise' in these figures is largely to be found in the service sector, which is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in the third quarter, after shrinking by 0.1% in the three months before," she said. The data also exceeded expectations from economists, who had predicted an increase of 0.6% in the quarter.Continue reading the main story “Start Quote It is growth - even with all the one-offs - and faster growth than most in the City expected” End Quote Stephanie Flanders Economics editor Read more from Stephanie Does it matter we're out of recession? 'Right track' The economy had been in recession for the previous nine months and has still not recovered the levels of output seen before the financial crisis in 2008. The ONS said that beyond the effect of ticket sales, it was hard to put an exact figure on the Olympic effect, although it cited increased hotel and restaurant activity in London as well as strength from employment agencies. The GDP figures were also enhanced by comparison with the previous three months, because the second quarter had an extra public holiday as part of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations in June, as well as unusually bad weather, which reduced growth. "There is still a long way to go, but these figures show we are on the right track," said Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. "Yesterday's weak data from the eurozone were a reminder that we still face many economic challenges at home and abroad." Shadow chancellor Ed Balls praised the news but said that the figures "show that underlying growth remains weak". "A one-off boost from the Olympics is welcome," he said. "But it is no substitute for a plan to secure and sustain the strong recovery that Britain desperately needs if we are to create jobs, get the deficit down and make people better off." David Cameron: "We're on the right track" The data is a preliminary estimate from the ONS, meaning that the third-quarter figures could be revised higher or lower. "While the news is positive, the estimate must be put in context," said David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce. "The 1% GDP figure for the third quarter is affected by distortions in the second quarter due to the Jubilee and Olympic ticket sales. Compared to a year earlier, the figures show that the economy is stagnant." The ONS said that the economy had contracted by 6.4% between the start of 2008 and the middle of 2009, and had since recovered about half of that output. The level of output in the third quarter of 2012 was almost exactly the same as it had been in the third quarter of 2011. UK returns to growth, largest in 5 years. Generally good news this , people may make something of the "Olympics effect" but regardless of that still good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Generally good news this Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From ONS report. So, construction and production at about the lowest point seen in this 12-year period. Overall output still below pre-crash levels. And increasing reliance on the services sector, now outstripping the real economy. Puts me in mind of Probably the worst thing about this tiny upturn in our fragile GDP is that the deluded Osborne will take it as a sign that his policies are correct. When will his colleagues throw the crazed loon out of a high window? Incidentally, here's someone who announces himself as a tory with a few comments about what Osborne and Cameron keep saying about debt and deficits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The UK's response in terms of GDP and productivity to the financial crisis is nothing short of awful with respect to the other large economies in Europe (expect for Spain). Absolutely nothing to be proud of at all what so ever. GDP and productivity are around 3% lower than it was pre-recession. Today's announced # growth is good, although the actual underlying growth is likely to be no more than 0.3% despite 1% being the obvious headline figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Krugman, yesterday, before the latest figures (which don't change the general picture). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Why? Why is it not? Isn't some good news better than no good news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Why is it not? Did I say that it necessarily wasn't? I would look at the good news rather cautiously: perhaps taking in to account some of the things in the pdf I linked to in the ConDem thread, perhaps looking at some of the things that Peter mentions above and perhaps also considering what all the numbers and stats may mean when examined together (one of the things being going back to productivity). But then, in the end, the 'news' (whether one views it as good or bad) is all about how well we are managing to flog the same old pony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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