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economic situation is dire


ianrobo1
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UK economy grew by 0.5% in the three months to the end of September - slightly above expectations.

Greece going for a referendum on the bailout deal .. you couldn't make it up really could you ..

and then the economic expert bloke on radio today said forget about Greece Italy is in far far more trouble

happy days ahead it would seem

What a flawed way of looking at that.

As many have commented this morning in the media from the awful previous quarter, laughably attributed to the Royal Wedding etc, the following quarter was always going to seem better.

The reality is that

James Knightley, at ING Financial Markets, said: "While the Q3 growth rate looks respectable, it is important to remember that this follows a Q2 figure depressed by having fewer working days because of the royal wedding and supply disruptions caused by the Japan

"So for the economy to have only grown 0.5% in Q3 suggests the underlying picture remains weak," Mr Knightley said.

also

But concerns about the UK economy were not helped by latest Markit Purchasing Managers' Index data, also released on Tuesday.

The index for manufacturing activity in October fell to 47.4 points, from 50.8 points in September. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said: "The UK manufacturing PMI fell sharply back into contraction territory in October.

"The most worrying aspect of the survey is the trend in new orders, which declined at the quickest pace since March 2009. Companies are facing tough conditions in both domestic and overseas markets, meaning that output is increasingly being sustained through the depletion of backlogs of work.

"A marked recovery in the replenishment rate of order books is needed to prevent the renewed manufacturing downturn becoming embedded," Mr Dobson said.

So the reality is that despite all the gloss and spin that the Tory party and its supporters will try and put on this, the reality is that we are still suffering massively under Gideon's flawed Plan A.

As various organisations have also quoted this morning we are now able to really see what effect Gideon's plans of 12 months pre and post his attacks on spending and private sector

osborne-effect-one-year-on2.jpg

Also interesting that Cameron's "flagship" scheme of re-investment is being shared out to companies that have contributed to Tory party funds - how convenient (JCB!!)

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UK economy grew by 0.5% in the three months to the end of September - slightly above some expectations.

Fixed.

Nice to see the party politicians apparently on message repeating the slogans they were all told to today (from Osborne to the labour and tory eejuts on the Daily Politics).

Politics - too important to be left to tribalism and acolytes.

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Sorry for the tardiness in responding.

No problem.

My main concern is that an awful lot of business people, however good they are at what they make/create/sell, are not particularly good at financial management.

If they need to pay cash for something, they do it successfully. The moment that they are extended some credit then, given an inch, they will try to take a mile.

If they have 30-90 days from a supplier, they may be giving 30 days to their customer. If then a bank comes in with the offer to factor and they take it up, they will not then pay their suppliers quicker, they will use the money for something else. This could be an investment in their business by improving in certain areas, or they might just choose to buy a Ferrari!

In the meantime, the supplier from whom they are taking 30 to 90 days credit is oblivious to the fact that they are getting their money quicker, and that said suppliers risk has therefore increased.

I have a lot of sympathy with people with regard to the difficulties of cashflow management and self control over spending money (at least on a personal basis).

However, with regards to businesses, it perhaps shows the value of a decent finance person/function in a business. :P

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As many have commented this morning in the media from the awful previous quarter, laughably attributed to the Royal Wedding etc, the following quarter was always going to seem better.

you are so predictable I can set my watch by you :-)

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As many have commented this morning in the media from the awful previous quarter, laughably attributed to the Royal Wedding etc, the following quarter was always going to seem better.

you are so predictable I can set my watch by you :-)

Truth hurting a bit eh Tony? - as for predictability I sort of expected you to spout Gideon's words :-)

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Greece going for a referendum on the bailout deal .. you couldn't make it up really could you ..

The result of the enforced austerity on Greece imposed by the EC, ECB and IMF will 'ensure' that by 2020 Greece returns to a debt versus GDP ratio of 2007/08 - which was unsustainable even then at 120% of GDP.

Bottom line, the Greeks are being broken on the wheel to support the balance sheets of EU banks and the vanity (and pensions) of EU bureaucrats. Unsurprisingly there isn't much in the UK press about it, but Greece is approaching the stage of serious civil conflict and the only realistic option they have is to default, exit the Euro, devalue and try to recover. The idea that the Greek people will vote for the ruination of their entire society to support the EU political project is pure fantasy.

Brussels knows this which is why they are so furious that the Greek government are seeking a mandate from their people, but from Papandreou's perspective it's safer to piss off a few over-mighty Brussels based bell ends than end up swinging from a lamp post with the army back in charge.

Once Greece exits the other dominos will fall quicky and by virtue of the amount of CDS reinsurance through the City of London we'll be screwed too, whatever the government in Westminster does.

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As many have commented this morning in the media from the awful previous quarter, laughably attributed to the Royal Wedding etc, the following quarter was always going to seem better.

you are so predictable I can set my watch by you :-)

Truth hurting a bit eh Tony? - as for predictability I sort of expected you to spout Gideon's words :-)

Not true , I went for the impartial Sky news :winkold:

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Greece going for a referendum on the bailout deal .. you couldn't make it up really could you ..

The result of the enforced austerity on Greece imposed by the EC, ECB and IMF will 'ensure' that by 2020 Greece returns to a debt versus GDP ratio of 2007/08 - which was unsustainable even then at 120% of GDP.

Bottom line, the Greeks are being broken on the wheel to support the balance sheets of EU banks and the vanity (and pensions) of EU bureaucrats. Unsurprisingly there isn't much in the UK press about it, but Greece is approaching the stage of serious civil conflict and the only realistic option they have is to default, exit the Euro, devalue and try to recover. The idea that the Greek people will vote for the ruination of their entire society to support the EU political project is pure fantasy.

Brussels knows this which is why they are so furious that the Greek government are seeking a mandate from their people, but from Papandreou's perspective it's safer to piss off a few over-mighty Brussels based bell ends than end up swinging from a lamp post with the army back in charge.

Once Greece exits the other dominos will fall quicky and by virtue of the amount of CDS reinsurance through the City of London we'll be screwed too, whatever the government in Westminster does.

The Greek people may well vote for the package. There is 70% support with the Greek people for staying in the Euro. If the question is put to them along the lines of "Would you like to keep the Euro and accept the latest bailout or reject it, default and go back to the Drachma" then it may well pass.

Having said that, apparently you need a three fifths majority to call a referendum so it is very unlikely that it will actually happen at all.

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Greece going for a referendum on the bailout deal .. you couldn't make it up really could you ..

The result of the enforced austerity on Greece imposed by the EC, ECB and IMF will 'ensure' that by 2020 Greece returns to a debt versus GDP ratio of 2007/08 - which was unsustainable even then at 120% of GDP.

Bottom line, the Greeks are being broken on the wheel to support the balance sheets of EU banks and the vanity (and pensions) of EU bureaucrats. Unsurprisingly there isn't much in the UK press about it, but Greece is approaching the stage of serious civil conflict and the only realistic option they have is to default, exit the Euro, devalue and try to recover. The idea that the Greek people will vote for the ruination of their entire society to support the EU political project is pure fantasy.

Brussels knows this which is why they are so furious that the Greek government are seeking a mandate from their people, but from Papandreou's perspective it's safer to piss off a few over-mighty Brussels based bell ends than end up swinging from a lamp post with the army back in charge.

Once Greece exits the other dominos will fall quicky and by virtue of the amount of CDS reinsurance through the City of London we'll be screwed too, whatever the government in Westminster does.

The Greek people may well vote for the package. There is 70% support with the Greek people for staying in the Euro. If the question is put to them along the lines of "Would you like to keep the Euro and accept the latest bailout or reject it, default and go back to the Drachma" then it may well pass.

Having said that, apparently you need a three fifths majority to call a referendum so it is very unlikely that it will actually happen at all.

Whether it goes ahead or not and what the answer would be if it does is less informative, I believe, than the attitude of European politicians (and what are referred to as 'the markets') to the suggestion that people might actually be asked for their opinion.

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I can understand European politicians frustrations somewhat. If there was going to be direct democracy on the issue then the question should have been asked of the people before the negotiation started so everyone knew where they stood going in to negotiations.

This is a bit of a devious move by Papandreou, it seems like he is trying to absolve himself of responsibility for the pain that is to come (either austerity or default). It look as though it will bring down his government now.

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I can understand European politicians frustrations somewhat. If there was going to be direct democracy on the issue then the question should have been asked of the people before the negotiation started so everyone knew where they stood going in to negotiations.

That would have been rather impractical, though, wouldn't it?

What kind of question should have been asked?

Are the politicians frustrated with Papandreou, with people being asked a question or with the possibility that the answer they receive might not be the one they want/demand?

My money is on all three and increasing with each one.

If only these politicians could rid themselves of the inconvenient hoi polloi, they could get on with running countries and the world smoothly. :(

This is a bit of a devious move by Papandreou, it seems like he is trying to absolve himself of responsibility for the pain that is to come (either austerity or default). It look as though it will bring down his government now.

Is it devious?

I have little doubt that his motives are more about his own self interest than wanting to give the Greek people a say and that probably falls in line with my comment above about the other European politicians (and others).

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I do agree with what you are saying, and obviously it is in EU governments interest for stability to be maintained and that means an orderly default rather than a disorderly one.

It wouldn't be that impractical for Papandreou to be more upfront though would it? Just a referendum on whether the government should go back to the negotiating table on behalf of the people or give up altogether.

I saw a pretty good comment from the comment is free section of the guardian (replying to another poster) which I think sums up what the Greek PM has done here.

@KeiserCelente and everyone celebrating the referendum as democratic: how romantically optimistic you are! Papandreou has been disregarding systematically the will of the Greek people from day one, you can't possibly believe he's seen the light of democracy NOW, can you?

The bail-out was a shot in the country's leg and now he's tricking a nation exhausted by endless tax hikes and pay cuts and duplicity into voting to be shot in the other leg!

The bail-out agreement is a 120-page-long document of legal gobbledygook that hardly any Greek will read or be able to understand. What's more, for most Greeks the cuts, taxes, and lies have become synonymous with the bail-out deal. When you're tired and angry and up to your neck in bills it's very hard to distinguish between harsh policies and the consequences of a contract. I expect most Greeks will vote 'no' thinking of the former, whereas in fact, their vote will only affect the latter. Papandreou is applying horrid mass-psychology tactics, probably to shift the responsibility of a default and sundry disasters to the Greek people, then attempt to wash his dirty little hands of it all.

There is absolutely nothing democratic or noble about manipulating people, reneging on an agreement, duping your European partners, and practically inciting hatred against a whole nation - the abuse you read in the press against Greeks these days is hair-raising!

When has any Brit or French or German been called as a matter of fact to vote on crucial fiscal or social policies? Since when is it recommended practice to ask the average person to vote, not on plans and intentions, but on freshly agreed regulations too complex to comprehend? If the Greek PM cared anything about democracy, he ought to have asked the people, 'do you want us to go ahead and draft a deal with the IMF, ECB etc. or not?' before even starting negotiations, not before the ink of his signature on the deal had time to dry.

He's duped his voters, he's duped Merkel, Sarkozy and the rest, and now he's trying to dupe as many Greeks as he can, plus any romantic soul out there who thinks a referendum equals democracy, never mind if it's really a false choice between alternative ways of committing suicide.

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Re: The CIF comment.

Some of the comment is good - mainly the bit about systematically disregarding the will of the people from day one (I mentioned something similar before).

I'm afraid that some of the rest seems to use the duplicity and self-interested nature of this particular politician (something he has in common with the majority of, if not all, other politicians especially Merkel, Sarkozy et al) and the referendum proposed (no doubt because of these characteristics) as a means to decry taking in to account people's opinion by painting people (who may think this is often not a bad thing) as romantic souls.

To say that Papandreou ought to have asked the people aforehand and then in the next para suggest that what he claims he wants to ask them is 'a false choice between alternative ways of committing suicide' is to expediently use what has happened to justify the commenter's already held belief. Had Papandreou done that, I don't doubt this same commenter would have been decrying the idiocy of asking a simplistic question on the eve of negotians which were likely to be complex and which could end up with multifarious outcomes - and he'd have probably trotted out something about 'it's really a false choice between alternative ways of committing suicide'.

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