Summarise the Season - 21/22

[CVByrne]

meh

[VillaChris]

5/10.

A very underwhelming season from start to finish.

Grealish saga set the tone then flurry of optimism signing Bailey and Ings before being 3 down to awful Watford team on opening day showed the reality.

Can't remember a season for a long time when we've flattered to deceive so often and so many players picked up injuries at key points.

After the euphoria of winning at Old Trafford we finished September with 10 points from 6 games so it had actually been a pretty decent start considering the July circumstances. In true Villa fashion we then lose our next five league games in terrible fashion and our most popular manager in decades gets sacked.

Then Gerrard comes in and we get a good bounce and look a competent team again. Covid over xmas meant we lost two winnable fixtures v Burnley and Leeds and the chance to establish ourselves in the top half came and went.

Harder to defend our manager after the three week break after winning at Everton. Not beating Leeds after being 3-1 up really set the tone and put serious doubts in my mind about this manager given how few wins we've had in last three months.

Pros

Ramsey came on a treat this season, Digne has looked very solid lately so FBs positions aren't a huge concern and Buendia from December started living up to his pricetag. Our style of football also effective against bottom 6/7 teams as think we've picked up 60% of our points tally against them and that shouldn't change next season if we get the DM right.

Cons

Rest of midfield feels weaker now than 18 months ago. Meek performances and results v Wolves, West Ham, Arsenal cost us top half spot and we still don't really have a clue what is our most effective system in final third.

Given where we're finishing I think only target next season is just to finish top 10 and have a decent cup run. Those demanding europa qualification are going to be disappointed considering Newcastle are already finishing above us and they'll sign another 2-3 quality players in the summer.

[VillaChris]

2 hours ago, turvontour said:

Aston villa 1 crystal palace 1

Could sum up that game as epitome of our standing as a club since the end of the 90s at top level.

Had endless draws at home in those games under O'Neill which cost us top 4 in two of his seasons.

Would be nice to have a home season where we win 10 home games and draw 4-5 but think trend under Gerrard is we're better away from home so that will probably continue next season.

[VillaChris]

One way to look at it at least.

Baring a shock result tomorrow we'll end up on 45 points. Wolves bar a shock draw will end up on 51 points.

They've been top 8 for pretty much the whole season.

You're looking up then at having to make up six points to be serious contenders for 8th given finishers in that position are usually low 50s (unless it's us in 20/21....)

It shouldn't take 100ms of spending to get us in that mix, could argue we should've done it this season given if Leicester beat Southampton at home they'll more than likely finish 8th. We were above them 3 weeks ago.

[MrSmirch]

2 steps back.

[nick76]

 

[sne]

3 minutes ago, nick76 said:

 

Slippy G...

[Tom13]

Our record against the top 8 is quite frankly pathetic.

It's why I was so wound up losing to Liverpool, because of how often taking zero points against the top sides has happened.

[CVByrne]

It was a tough season for so many reasons. 

Firstly pre-season was interrupted with lots of injuries, players coming back later because of the Euros. You add to that losing Jack. But also the best football we have seen for Villa was Jack and the Ross Barkley output in first half of last season prior to his injury and then Jacks. I think that made us all think we were already a top half side. In reality we weren't a great side. The starting point wasn't great especially when you factor in losing Jack and Barkley. We were averaging nearly 2xG per game during our amazing start to last season because of the two of them, we also had around 1.2 xGA. We got a better idea where we really were in 2021 where our goals scoring average xG dropped to around 1 for the year and defensively we were averaging around xGA of 1.5. This is why our form slumped and Dean got sacked. 

So Gerrard came into a team the fans believed was a top 10 side based on that Jack/Barkley dynamic in our fast start to last season. When in reality we were the side averaging just over a point a game in 2021 and had average just 0.9 ppg in the 25 games under Deano without Grealish. That is relegation form and would get you 34 points in a season. What Gerrard has done is sorted us out defensively and began to get the team learning his playing style. Our xG and xGA have moved to 1.3 and 1.1 respectively so we're defensively better and we are back in the positive territory so we are playing better under Gerrard than under Dean. He is an improvement. 

Our problems are highlighted by 5 games since the turn of the year. Brentford, Watford, Wolves, Spurs, Burnley. Three games where we have had the majority of possession and higher xG than opposition yet got just 1 points from all three. Games where we should have won or drawn. That's 10 points on average lost through inability to score enough and individual errors.

So the team are doing better under Gerrard. We need to be more clinical in front of goal and create more goal scoring chances. Lack of that top quality CDM has been a big issue in conceding in transition and not freeing up our 8s to get more involved in attack

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by CVByrne

[Condimentalist]

It's been crap.

I'm not despondent or anything, there are things to like about the new regime, but I'm far from convinced and we had a good thing going with Dean (and Jack). My favourite era supporting the club is now well and truly over. 

However, a few good signings and some positive early results and it will hopefully feel like the start of a new positive phase. We are going the right way with these owners overall.

[CVByrne]

15 minutes ago, Condimentalist said:

It's been crap.

I'm not despondent or anything, there are things to like about the new regime, but I'm far from convinced and we had a good thing going with Dean (and Jack). My favourite era supporting the club is now well and truly over. 

However, a few good signings and some positive early results and it will hopefully feel like the start of a new positive phase. We are going the right way with these owners overall.

But we were actually shit under Dean without Jack. We were a one trick pony 

[MaVilla]

2021/22 season breakdown:

 

Pre Season:

 

Grealish leaves:

 

Half the squad injured constantly for the start of the season:

 

Poor start to season:

 

Deano sacked:

 

Gerrard appointed:

 

Coutinho Joins in Jan:

 

VT posters moaning about Coutinho:

 

Season of pure Meh:

 

Coutinho joins permanently:

 

 

End of Season, thinking about next season:

 

[nick76]

9 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

2021/22 season breakdown:

 

Pre Season:

 

Grealish leaves:

 

Half the squad injured constantly for the start of the season:

 

Poor start to season:

 

Deano sacked:

 

Gerrard appointed:

 

Coutinho Joins in Jan:

 

VT posters moaning about Coutinho:

 

Season of pure Meh:

 

Coutinho joins permanently:

 

 

End of Season, thinking about next season:

 

Absolutely brilliant!

[Tommo_b]

1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

It was a tough season for so many reasons. 

Firstly pre-season was interrupted with lots of injuries, players coming back later because of the Euros. You add to that losing Jack. But also the best football we have seen for Villa was Jack and the Ross Barkley output in first half of last season prior to his injury and then Jacks. I think that made us all think we were already a top half side. In reality we weren't a great side. The starting point wasn't great especially when you factor in losing Jack and Barkley. We were averaging nearly 2xG per game during our amazing start to last season because of the two of them, we also had around 1.2 xGA. We got a better idea where we really were in 2021 where our goals scoring average xG dropped to around 1 for the year and defensively we were averaging around xGA of 1.5. This is why our form slumped and Dean got sacked. 

So Gerrard came into a team the fans believed was a top 10 side based on that Jack/Barkley dynamic in our fast start to last season. When in reality we were the side averaging just over a point a game in 2021 and had average just 0.9 ppg in the 25 games under Deano without Grealish. That is relegation form and would get you 34 points in a season. What Gerrard has done is sorted us out defensively and began to get the team learning his playing style. Our xG and xGA have moved to 1.3 and 1.1 respectively so we're defensively better and we are back in the positive territory so we are playing better under Gerrard than under Dean. He is an improvement. 

Our problems are highlighted by 5 games since the turn of the year. Brentford, Watford, Wolves, Spurs, Burnley. Three games where we have had the majority of possession and higher xG than opposition yet got just 1 points from all three. Games where we should have won or drawn. That's 10 points on average lost through inability to score enough and individual errors.

So the team are doing better under Gerrard. We need to be more clinical in front of goal and create more goal scoring chances. Lack of that top quality CDM has been a big issue in conceding in transition and not freeing up our 8s to get more involved in attack

 

Good post.

[Dale]

Poor with injuries. 

New manager bounce. 

Poor without injuries. 

[allani]

I was really looking forward to this season with our early transfer signings / rumours.  Even with Jack leaving I thought we should have started the season as a more balanced side (going forwards).  I was disappointed that we didn't strengthen the centre of midfield as that was our Achilles Heel last season and it has remained so this season.  Some weeks our midfield look good, the next weekend they look like they have barely played football before.  In many matches they manage to do both of those thing within the space of 15 minutes!

I do think that a change of manager was required.  I am not convinced that SG is the right man.  However, I think he's done OK so far.  The team / squad are clearly not fully aligned with the way he wants to play and (a bit like Smith) at times it has felt like he is trying to jam square pegs into round holes.  That said what I think Gerrard does give us is (a) a winner's mentality and (b) a chance to sign the type of player that we just couldn't attract with Smith in charge.  Coutinho will I think prove to be a great signing.  Digne is a definite upgrade at left-back.  Chambers is an upgrade on Hause and gives us options on the bench.

Overall we seem to have three significant issues to address in the summer.  (1) We fail to control the centre of the pitch too often.  This means that we are too quick playing the ball too long - which doesn't play to the strengths of our attacking players.  It means that our flair players often get the ball too deep and in trying to do too much we concede possession too quickly and too close to our own box.  We are in desperate need of a midfielder who can get hold of the ball and make sure we don't give it away too cheaply and who also knows how to defend (unlike McGinn and Dougie).  I still think that we probably need two midfielders but I am hoping that with a proper player behind them that McGinn and Dougie improve dramatically.  But I have my doubts.  I'd like them to be coming off the bench in a lot more matches.  (2) If Digne and Cash are being encouraged to attack - we need to be confident that our central defenders (with support from central midfield) can cover that.  However, Mings and Konsa have been caught out many times this season with players running behind them.  It seems like they don't quite know who is supposed to track who and are not playing on the same wavelength (i.e. too often one moves forward as the other moves back or they both start tracking the same player, spot each other and then both stop).  So we really need a leader at the back who can marshal our defence effectively.  Mings has been that man for a couple of seasons but it doesn't quite work.  I want to see him being bossed around by someone (bit like how it is for England).  (3) I think we need to play with a single striker with Emi2 and Coutinho playing behind / to the side of them.  I don't think Watkins or Ings are that player.  We have wasted a lot of chances this season and Watkins has conceded possession far too easily and / or failed to spot the runs of others. 

I think that if the first of those issues is addressed then we should be capable of finishing comfortably in mid-table.  If the first two of those issues are addressed then we should be capable of finishing in the top half.  If all three issues are addressed then (injuries / suspensions willing) then I don't see why we can't be challenging the likes of Wolves, West Ham and Leicester as "best of the rest".  The "unknowns" are Man Utd who seem to have massive issues, Newcastle who may / may not be able to outspend everyone during the summer, Arsenal who seem to blow really hot or stone cold and Everton who might or might not be inspired having survived when relegation looked likely a couple of weeks back.

Going into next season I think we start further back from a possible European challenge than we did this time last year.  Although we seem more balanced as a team without Jack he was one of the most talked about players in England last year and although Coutinho has a huge profile he's struggled to make an impact recently.  However, it kind of feels like we've found our level rather than being the team most likely to make the jump from mid-table.  That said I do think Gerrard will have more of a pull than Smith did and is more likely to convince a player who might be on the fence about whether to sign for us or West Ham, Wolves, etc.  But my whole expectation / hope for next season is 100% dependent on that first signing - get the right midfielder in place and we could be a big threat.  Fail to get the right person and another season battling for 13th and hoping to avoid the threat of being involved in the distant reaches of a relegation battle are as good as we can hope.  Over the last 3 seasons we have proved that relying on McGinn and Dougie in the middle of the park is not a successful strategy and not only detracts from their skills but also has a negative impact on the effectiveness of the rest of the team too.

[allani]

2 hours ago, VillaChris said:

One way to look at it at least.

Baring a shock result tomorrow we'll end up on 45 points. Wolves bar a shock draw will end up on 51 points.

They've been top 8 for pretty much the whole season.

You're looking up then at having to make up six points to be serious contenders for 8th given finishers in that position are usually low 50s (unless it's us in 20/21....)

It shouldn't take 100ms of spending to get us in that mix, could argue we should've done it this season given if Leicester beat Southampton at home they'll more than likely finish 8th. We were above them 3 weeks ago.

I agree on a lot of this.  But we 100% have to get the midfield position sorted and many of the other teams competing for a top half finish will be looking at the same type of player.  We aren't going to finish 10th by signing 3 £30m players (unless we get EXTREMELY lucky).  So whilst I don't think we are far off - we probably would need to break our transfer record three times - a central midfielder, a centre back who Mings looks up to (not necessarily literally!) and a striker who can play in front of two 10s.  The teams above us will be spending money and we need to more than keep up with them.

[Hank Scorpio]

Inconsistent. Mistakes. Missed chances. Midfield Swiss cheese.

[rbcuk]

Mediocre again

[VillaChris]

2 minutes ago, allani said:

I agree on a lot of this.  But we 100% have to get the midfield position sorted and many of the other teams competing for a top half finish will be looking at the same type of player.  We aren't going to finish 10th by signing 3 £30m players (unless we get EXTREMELY lucky).  So whilst I don't think we are far off - we probably would need to break our transfer record three times - a central midfielder, a centre back who Mings looks up to (not necessarily literally!) and a striker who can play in front of two 10s.  The teams above us will be spending money and we need to more than keep up with them.

Some will, some won't.

Wolves will have to replace Neves you suspect and rest of their side is looking a bit tired now.

Not sure what Leicester can add given they have good players all around the pitch but so many have been injured constantly so they're similar to us, Tielemans leaving aswell.

Brighton probably losing Bissouma but already got Caciedo as a replacement.

Big problem I think is Newcastle shown in last 3 months what they'll be doing over next three years so will be struggle to finish above them next year, they'll probably qualify for europe before we do.

Our squad isn't amazing...but it isn't terrible either so just got to sign a couple who can make a real difference at both ends while other clubs above us have to replace key players.