Dwight McNeil

[KangarooVillan]

3 hours ago, tezzaleed said:

not seen any of his YouTube clips.  I can just remember him from watching him in Burnley games,  YouTube clips can make anyone look good or bad.  don't agree that just looking at goals scored and assists over two seasons is a legitimate review of his stats.  I'm not going to engage further as he's unlikely to come so this is a pointless argument.  

Lol just want to make sure I’m getting this right.

You came in, stated DM has ‘clear talent’ and has shown ‘consistent quality over 2 seasons’, labelled another poster’s very honest and not overtly negative opinion as ‘garbage’,

THEN

Conceded you have only watched Burnley when they play Villa and that the whole chat that you started is pointless because it’s not going to happen.

Amazing.

[KentVillan]

2 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

I will admit I haven't watched McNeil enough to make an opinion really, but after watching his youtube wheel, I have to say that the lack of end product is exactly what I was thinking. A lot of nice runs with the ball but after the shot or pass you see the movie cuts to a new clip. Nothing came of it. It was literally the EXACT thing I was thinking after watching it, the lack of end product that is.

But I don't have a strong opinion either way. I just hope he doesn't cut inside.

His expected assist stats (11th in the league overall, 23rd in league on xA per 90 mins)* suggest plenty of end product, just not being finished by his teammates.

He also has a very good injury record. I can see why we're interested. It's a very Dean Smith signing IMO. A young, coachable talent with a good touch, plenty of room to grow, and good "under the radar" performance stats.

* I'm getting these from https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/stats/Premier-League-Stats

Quote

In collaboration with StatsBomb, we are including advanced analytical data such as xG and xA for select competitions. For more information on the expected goals model and which competitions are covered, see our xG explainer.

 

[MrBlack]

38 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

His expected assist stats (11th in the league overall, 23rd in league on xA per 90 mins)* suggest plenty of end product, just not being finished by his teammates.

He also has a very good injury record. I can see why we're interested. It's a very Dean Smith signing IMO. A young, coachable talent with a good touch, plenty of room to grow, and good "under the radar" performance stats.

* I'm getting these from https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/stats/Premier-League-Stats

 

Very much the case, except for the fact j expect the price will be way beyond a Smith signing...which will be the deciding factor for me. I don't feel like he's worth much more than 20m, if anything.

It's too big a chunk of money to spend on a player that has been very good but still has plenty to demonstrate. In years gone by this player would be worth very little, having provided so few assists last season. But with the increase in statistical awareness, the "expected" statistics get valued the same as the "acvieved" statistics, and then players start getting over valued. This isn't a criticism of the way things are, but more a perspective.

And I'm struggling to see how we could justify over 20m on Dwight McNeil (and I'm certain they'll demand even more), when Buendia is available for 3Xm (according to Norwich owners).

Seeking out unpolished diamonds and getting them for relatively cheap is fine, paying premiums for those that have yet to actually deliver much would have me questioning our choice. As its not my money to spend I only really care about relative value, and think Buendia is much further up that scale for most prices suggested for each. 

That said, our owners know what they're doing, so if they did go down the DM route (for 30m?)  and Buendia signed for Arsenal for 40m... I'd be raging,  and then no doubt find myself eating my metaphorical cap in 6 months time.

[KentVillan]

21 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

Very much the case, except for the fact j expect the price will be way beyond a Smith signing...which will be the deciding factor for me. I don't feel like he's worth much more than 20m, if anything.

It's too big a chunk of money to spend on a player that has been very good but still has plenty to demonstrate. In years gone by this player would be worth very little, having provided so few assists last season. But with the increase in statistical awareness, the "expected" statistics get valued the same as the "acvieved" statistics, and then players start getting over valued. This isn't a criticism of the way things are, but more a perspective.

And I'm struggling to see how we could justify over 20m on Dwight McNeil (and I'm certain they'll demand even more), when Buendia is available for 3Xm (according to Norwich owners).

Seeking out unpolished diamonds and getting them for relatively cheap is fine, paying premiums for those that have yet to actually deliver much would have me questioning our choice. As its not my money to spend I only really care about relative value, and think Buendia is much further up that scale for most prices suggested for each. 

That said, our owners know what they're doing, so if they did go down the DM route (for 30m?)  and Buendia signed for Arsenal for 40m... I'd be raging,  and then no doubt find myself eating my metaphorical cap in 6 months time.

Why does Buendia get more credit than McNeil, though? To me they're both very similar levels of talent and risk atm... and McNeil is younger - just Buendia has been playing at an easier level recently so his stats look better, and maybe he's a bit easier on the eye (which means nothing really).

For a 20 / 21 year old to be getting McNeil's stats over last 2 years in the PL at a club like Burnley is pretty impressive - they're better than what Buendia managed in 2019/20. Can anyone point to another young player with similar figures who isn't already at a top club?

And prices always look expensive every transfer window. That's the nature of the market. I'd say £30-35m + add ons would be a fair price, given potential and resale value.

We all thought Watkins was very expensive, and now I doubt anyone would say that. £10m here or there is nothing when players add twice that to their value overnight by getting England caps.

[Sulberto21]

Watkins when he sees McNeil's crossing in matches.....

[thunderball]

I am not excited by this, but I have learned to trust the judgement of the management's recruitment who have barely skipped a beat in 12 months. I feel more than ever that we have a very good team looking after recruitment and are making the right decisions for personnel and the prices paid for them.

[AJ]

7 hours ago, Sulberto21 said:

Watkins when he sees McNeil's crossing in matches.....

I would be most disappointed with Ollie if he did that instead of getting in position.

He will probably get carded for it too.

[KangarooVillan]

14 hours ago, MrBlack said:

Very much the case, except for the fact j expect the price will be way beyond a Smith signing...which will be the deciding factor for me. I don't feel like he's worth much more than 20m, if anything.

It's too big a chunk of money to spend on a player that has been very good but still has plenty to demonstrate. In years gone by this player would be worth very little, having provided so few assists last season. But with the increase in statistical awareness, the "expected" statistics get valued the same as the "acvieved" statistics, and then players start getting over valued. This isn't a criticism of the way things are, but more a perspective.

And I'm struggling to see how we could justify over 20m on Dwight McNeil (and I'm certain they'll demand even more), when Buendia is available for 3Xm (according to Norwich owners).

Seeking out unpolished diamonds and getting them for relatively cheap is fine, paying premiums for those that have yet to actually deliver much would have me questioning our choice. As its not my money to spend I only really care about relative value, and think Buendia is much further up that scale for most prices suggested for each. 

That said, our owners know what they're doing, so if they did go down the DM route (for 30m?)  and Buendia signed for Arsenal for 40m... I'd be raging,  and then no doubt find myself eating my metaphorical cap in 6 months time.

I’ve had this discussion with a few posters already so I won’t go over covered ground.

I think Buendia is a better player than Dwight right now, but the notion that he IS better is speculative. 

He has done it in the Championship, but his stats compared to DM in the Prem are basically the same.

DM has done it for longer though and is 3 years younger.

[KenjiOgiwara]

4 hours ago, AJ said:

I would be most disappointed with Ollie if he did that instead of getting in position.

He will probably get carded for it too.

IIRC Ashley Young got a new contract

[DaveAV1]

4 hours ago, AJ said:

I would be most disappointed with Ollie if he did that instead of getting in position.

Missionary?

[Dave-R]

4 hours ago, AJ said:

I would be most disappointed with Ollie if he did that instead of getting in position.

He will probably get carded for it too.

 

[Dave-R]

48 minutes ago, KangarooVillan said:

I’ve had this discussion with a few posters already so I won’t go over covered ground.

I think Buendia is a better player than Dwight right now, but the notion that he IS better is speculative. 

He has done it in the Championship, but his stats compared to DM in the Prem are basically the same.

DM has done it for longer though and is 3 years younger.

DM I would say because of the youngness inhim would be the better choice.

I personally think he looks more creative and faster than Buendia. Maybe it's all due to the team they are in maybe both would thrive at this club, but we're not going to go for both if we do go for someone it's just going to be one isn't it??

DM seems the better choice.

[AJ]

40 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

Missionary?

Ready to receive balls in the box. 

[Kiwivillan]

1 hour ago, Dave-R said:

DM I would say because of the youngness inhim would be the better choice.

I personally think he looks more creative and faster than Buendia. Maybe it's all due to the team they are in maybe both would thrive at this club, but we're not going to go for both if we do go for someone it's just going to be one isn't it??

DM seems the better choice.

I think they're completely different players and Buendia offers more unlocking a defence based on the way we play. I honestly think McNeil link is some journo clutching at straws and we've no interest

[QldVilla]

6 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

I think they're completely different players and Buendia offers more unlocking a defence based on the way we play. I honestly think McNeil link is some journo clutching at straws and we've no interest

Is that the stats talking, or your keen eye to spot talent....?

[Kiwivillan]

4 minutes ago, QldVilla said:

Is that the stats talking, or your keen eye to spot talent....?

Both in this case

[tezzaleed]

18 hours ago, KangarooVillan said:

Lol just want to make sure I’m getting this right.

You came in, stated DM has ‘clear talent’ and has shown ‘consistent quality over 2 seasons’, labelled another poster’s very honest and not overtly negative opinion as ‘garbage’,

THEN

Conceded you have only watched Burnley when they play Villa and that the whole chat that you started is pointless because it’s not going to happen.

Amazing.

Burnley were on the telly even when they weren't playing Villa believe it or not.  I also thought the OP's post was a symptom of quite a negative reaction to DM in general.  As I said damning with faint praise,  looking like a compliment but ultimately pandering to the DM is not a marque signing and not good parade.

I agree i stated it is pointless though, and I'll stick by that, I think he is very unlikely to leave Burnley, largely based on how they stand up to other clubs trying to poach their best talent.  Pope, Tarkovski etc.  Also he looks to be a back up plan for Buendia although even that who knows as its all speculation and repeated rumours at the moment.

Edited June 2, 2021 by tezzaleed

[MrBlack]

6 hours ago, KangarooVillan said:

I’ve had this discussion with a few posters already so I won’t go over covered ground.

I think Buendia is a better player than Dwight right now, but the notion that he IS better is speculative. 

He has done it in the Championship, but his stats compared to DM in the Prem are basically the same.

DM has done it for longer though and is 3 years younger.

He has played in the PL for longer, but has never delivered the stats that Buendia has in a season (albeit Buendia did it in the Championship). Also, DMs stats in the PL in 19/20 were for a team that was 17 points better off than the rubbish Norwich side Buendia was in. He hasn't improved those stats this season, so there is still a fair way to go for him. 

The potential is absolutely there in DM. I feel we'd be getting the nearly finished product in Buendia (who should suit our style straight up), and a prospect in DM that we could shape to be a potentially better version of Buendia in a couple of years.

I value the former more than the latter for us,  assuming the price is about the same.

Like I said though, if we did get McNeil, I'm sure it will be the right choice for us, similarly if we got Buendia.  I just have complete faith in the leadership at the moment. 

[Adam2003]

4 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

I honestly think McNeil link is some journo clutching at straws and we've no interest

You might well be right but this could also be the same with Buendia. All just a guessing game with this ownership (which is good).

[tezzaleed]

2 hours ago, MrBlack said:

He has played in the PL for longer, but has never delivered the stats that Buendia has in a season (albeit Buendia did it in the Championship). Also, DMs stats in the PL in 19/20 were for a team that was 17 points better off than the rubbish Norwich side Buendia was in. He hasn't improved those stats this season, so there is still a fair way to go for him. 

The potential is absolutely there in DM. I feel we'd be getting the nearly finished product in Buendia (who should suit our style straight up), and a prospect in DM that we could shape to be a potentially better version of Buendia in a couple of years.

I value the former more than the latter for us,  assuming the price is about the same.

Like I said though, if we did get McNeil, I'm sure it will be the right choice for us, similarly if we got Buendia.  I just have complete faith in the leadership at the moment. 

I've seen a few say he's a signing with potential.  I think he will improve as he's only 21 but I think he will improve our starting eleven considerably as he is.  Ignoring basic stats such as goals scored and assist,  as I think they tell so little of the story by themselves they are irrelevant at best misleading at worst, he seems to be the kind of player that will slot right in to a team trying to lay good football. 

out of interest does anyone have any decent reliable statistical analysis or is there a site people are referring to?