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2021/22 expectations


Jareth

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43 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Yeah but Lerner wasn't a businessman, he was a bored philanthropist who wanted to get romantically nourished.

These guys are proper business people with experience in sports management.

I have more confidence this time. However in the 15 years since Lerner the window to get to the top has massively narrowed.

Its never easy with the Villa is it.

Oh I agree and what we quickly saw post O'Neill there was very little strategic decision making from the very top, not just Lerner but Faulkner who really was just an office boy type CEO compared to some of the other ones around at the time.

Look at the way we went from various managerial styles season in season out.

As much as MON had his limitations in terms of squad building and one style of play his control freak style type of management was actually the ideal thing to have under Lerner as it limited the decisions he had to make on how the team on the pitch needed to be formed.

My general point though is I've been posting on here since about 2005 and at no point in the first 2-3 years did I read Lerner wasn't anything but the very best owner we could get. Much of that because he simply followed Ellis but just shows how we can all get swept up in the moment, there was certainly hardly any saying in say 2008 we'd be seriously fighting relegation with three seasons but that's what happened so shows how quickly things can change in football.

We're certainly far from established at the top level again we could absorb Grealish leaving so I'd like to think someone in the vault there's a detailed plan for what we do if he left in the near future. Same as something like DS being poached by England but I think there's more manageable and in any case very unlikely to happen.

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2 minutes ago, lexicon said:

But you said our minium target should be 20? 

We have to set realistic goals, mate - we all want to see progress, sure, but IMO we've overachieved this year based on our expectations and next season is way too soon to be expecting us to push top 4.

The question is what will Dean Smith and the club be setting? There's always a give or take a couple either way. I don't believe we've overachieved at all. We're in the correct position where I believe our squad and coaching staff are in terms of ability , experience and mentality

We've got the youngest squad and they're going to improve again next season. Most of our defeats have come because of a lack of experience. 

How many wins do you think we'll achieve next season as a ballpark figure?

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31 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

I'm going on what I saw in the games before the covid outbreak. We missed lots of easy chances to win at least 4 more games. That would have put us on 18 already for the season. It's an ambitious target that I believe this squad and coach are capable of delivering.

P.S I was similarly mocked when I said we should aim for 15 wins this season. It was based on how the games went last season and in the knowledge that the players and coaches will rectify the mistakes of last season. I see no reason why they won't make the necessary adjustments to get to 20 wins. 

Even if we win 17 games next season it's brilliant again. But I genuinely believe this system is capable next season of delivering 20 wins. Our analysis team has improved so much and I believe our squad is young enough to improve again next season.

It's very tough to get the consistancy to break 60 points. Basically you simply can't afford the drop off in form we had between middle of Feb up to basically last Saturday.

Just looking at Chelsea form when they sacked Lampard and they won 3 out of 9 with a couple of draws so not good enough for what they spent but they weren't that far off the pace and obviously the great form Tuchel got them in straight away pushed them quickly back into the top 4.

Just look at some of the runs we went on under MON and yet we only just about got past 60 points in two of those seasons.

Frustration for me this season is we had 40 points by end of Feb and had a very good fixture list on paper and we messed up badly v Sheffield United and Newcastle to name two games. Add even another 3 points on to to our total and we'd still have a chance of top 6 and certainly 60 points would be realistic target.

Another factor to add in is just assuming things will run the same as this season. For example we might get a bad injury at the back to one of the key players and that could result in much less clean sheets than this year so would put more pressure on us to score.

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4 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

The question is what will Dean Smith and the club be setting? There's always a give or take a couple either way. I don't believe we've overachieved at all. We're in the correct position where I believe our squad and coaching staff are in terms of ability , experience and mentality

We've got the youngest squad and they're going to improve again next season. Most of our defeats have come because of a lack of experience. 

How many wins do you think we'll achieve next season as a ballpark figure?

Not a clue - depends on what happens this summer. Personally, all I wanted this season was to not be in a relegation battle - so progress on last year. Next season, I'd like to see us cement our status as a top half team and do a bit better than this year. Number of wins doesn't bother me as it's relatively contextual. 

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4 hours ago, DCJonah said:

Fair enough. I would have thought those concerns you had would be offset by our league position, which has consistently been good since day one. Especially when you seem to have realistic expectations about that this year and next. 

I think i said this before but if you could switch the 2nd half of the season with the 1st i think that would have  eased my concerns abit more

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1 minute ago, lexicon said:

Not a clue - depends on what happens this summer. Personally, all I wanted this season was to not be in a relegation battle - so progress on last year. Next season, I'd like to see us cement our status as a top half team and do a bit better than this year. Number of wins doesn't bother me as it's relatively contextual. 

I think we're a feast or famine type team atm and I think we'll continue to be for a couple of seasons yet. I don't go into games scared shitless anymore because we've got enough weapons to cause damage. Hence I've gone for the ambitious target. 

They've impressed me this season have our boys. 

Respectfully agree to disagree with you on this.

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19 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Oh I agree and what we quickly saw post O'Neill there was very little strategic decision making from the very top, not just Lerner but Faulkner who really was just an office boy type CEO compared to some of the other ones around at the time.

Look at the way we went from various managerial styles season in season out.

As much as MON had his limitations in terms of squad building and one style of play his control freak style type of management was actually the ideal thing to have under Lerner as it limited the decisions he had to make on how the team on the pitch needed to be formed.

My general point though is I've been posting on here since about 2005 and at no point in the first 2-3 years did I read Lerner wasn't anything but the very best owner we could get. Much of that because he simply followed Ellis but just shows how we can all get swept up in the moment, there was certainly hardly any saying in say 2008 we'd be seriously fighting relegation with three seasons but that's what happened so shows how quickly things can change in football.

We're certainly far from established at the top level again we could absorb Grealish leaving so I'd like to think someone in the vault there's a detailed plan for what we do if he left in the near future. Same as something like DS being poached by England but I think there's more manageable and in any case very unlikely to happen.

Well yes MON was successful up to a degree- top 6 three  seasons in a row and we have got nowhere near that since. However given the comparatively huge amount of money poured into the signings at the time was should have reached CL at least once. MON got us to  a level but we could never get any higher without  a step change in style of play, technical ability, player recruitment etc. Which a modern modern coach and a  hands on ceo would have done. Anyway all in the past now. I hope we have learnt the lessons.

Edited by The Fun Factory
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1 hour ago, The Fun Factory said:

Well yes MON was successful up to a degree- top 6 three  seasons in a row and we have got nowhere near that since. However given the comparatively huge amount of money poured into the signings at the time was should have reached CL at least once. MON got us to  a level but we could never get any higher without  a step change in style of play, technical ability, player recruitment etc. Which a modern modern coach and a  hands on ceo would have done. Anyway all in the past now. I hope we have learnt the lessons.

But there wasn’t a top 6 by then. So top 6 itself in the last decade is an achievement, while before that it wasn’t. 

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6 minutes ago, abdulaziz1 said:

But there wasn’t a top 6 by then. So top 6 itself in the last decade is an achievement, while before that it wasn’t. 

It still basically meant european qualification- well the first time was via the intertoto cup, and the next 2 times we lost to rapid vienna.

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3 hours ago, Sulberto21 said:

I think we're a feast or famine type team atm and I think we'll continue to be for a couple of seasons yet. I don't go into games scared shitless anymore because we've got enough weapons to cause damage. Hence I've gone for the ambitious target. 

They've impressed me this season have our boys. 

Respectfully agree to disagree with you on this.

I admire your optimism and how much you're backing Smith and the lads. I'm 100% behind them too, I'm just wary of putting too much pressure on them too soon, that's all. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Probably a good time for a bump!

Already seeing a few posts creeping into this forum of posters not bothered  if we finished 11th next season aswell.

Might just be me but surely that hints at a lack of ambition and protecting the manager a little bit too much.

NSWE will give DS another 100m to spend i reckon so along with the 15m we signed Sanson for already seems to be an acceptance that we won't spend it well as signing 2-3 like we did last summer should mean us rising another 2-3 places.

Unless we just get a bad run of injuries. Or Jack leaves.

Just a reminder, Leicester lost their way after the title win and in Feb 2019 were in this position in premier league (ironcially after losing to Palace):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47262467

Their line up that had Vardy, Maddison, Tielemans, Evans and Ndidi all starting. Their board thought they were underacheving and changed manager and just over two years later it's paid off very well.

Wouldn't shock me if we reach that point a few months into next season as there will be increased expectation on us in August. It's o.k to want a little more sometimes as we can't keep on playing the new to premier league card as the seasons go on, I think FFP restrictions on wages aren't a problem next summer if we've got that right but that's no good if you're just seen as a mid table club.

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If Jack stays and we're investing the rumoured amounts, I'd hope to be in the top half and well in the running to qualify for this new tinpot European conference thing

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Just really hard to make predictions right now without knowing what will happen with transfers.

All I'll say is, the squad we have right now is definitely at least a mid-table squad and if we do invest considerably, we should be expecting a higher position.

Although I also think money is no guarantee and we shouldn't be too disappointed if we don't manage to progress further next season. So long as we don't do too badly

 

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Some quality additions, not sure how many...try and hit 8th. That’s probably the most realistic aim.

But if Villa won a cup, I’d be “happy” to finish around 12th or a touch lower.

Between 8th and 12th is my expectation. I suspect what the club do the following summer will be dependent on if they’re closer to a final position of 8th or closer to 12th.

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If we want to become a succesful club then winning the first trophy is the most important thing, people look down on the league cup but if we were to win it it would be massively important.

Edited by useless
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Expected mid table and would have been delighted with that. 

I also didn't expect Jack to be out for 3 months so on that basis I would have expected 15th or so. 

Looks like we may finish 11 and so if Jack was out for even half the time he has been injured for, we would have been top half. 

Very impressive for a side that stayed up on the last day, lost its leader and talisman and has several key players who have never played in the Premier League before.

Some great results too along the way, along with some unfathomably poor ones. But that's what a team and a club in transition should expect. 

Really excited for the new season as if we keep up this trajectory of improving by so many places each season, we will be in contention for the top 6 next season. 

Onwards and upwards. 

Edited by One For The Road
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