2021/22 expectations

[Sulberto21]

Start of this season I said we should aim for 15 wins minimum and we're nearly there. I adjusted that to 20 wins but our form has unfortunately tailed off for various reasons. 

Next season the target should be 20 wins minimum. I believe this current set of players with another season's experience are capable of doing it. Naturally we'll get a few players in so we should comfortably get it in theory.

[lexicon]

20 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

Start of this season I said we should aim for 15 wins minimum and we're nearly there. I adjusted that to 20 wins but our form has unfortunately tailed off for various reasons. 

Next season the target should be 20 wins minimum. I believe this current set of players with another season's experience are capable of doing it. Naturally we'll get a few players in so we should comfortably get it in theory.

In a 38-game season, the last time we achieved that target was 1989. A 20-win season is basically top 4. That's just silly, sorry. 

[DCJonah]

39 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

Start of this season I said we should aim for 15 wins minimum and we're nearly there. I adjusted that to 20 wins but our form has unfortunately tailed off for various reasons. 

Next season the target should be 20 wins minimum. I believe this current set of players with another season's experience are capable of doing it. Naturally we'll get a few players in so we should comfortably get it in theory.

It looks like only 3 teams will achieve 20 wins this season. I think that's quite high to have as a minimum. 

[VillaChris]

3 hours ago, tomav84 said:

really is a shit business model and glad we're doing the opposite. buying old players for big money and big wages with no resale value

from the signings we've made since promotion there aren't many we'd make a loss on. maybe wesley and anwar but can't think of many others

El Ghazi has stats this season of 15m player so can't see us making a loss on him at all.

Engels, Nakamba and probably Trez now with injury are three we'll probably struggle to sell for what we paid, think it was around 30m for three of them. Certainly Engels and Nakamba values have significantly dropped over last two years.

[useless]

Damn this blasted comfort zone where the idea of us being succesful is just a joke, where we stagnate and our dreams wither away, as other teams pass us by and take all the glory that could have been ours. If you want to be succesful you don't acheieve it by declaring that you're happy to finish midtable for a few seasons and then at some future date we will magically start improving, you have to go for it straight away, you might not acheive your aim to begin with, but that's the mentality you need to succeed eventually.

[VillaChris]

3 hours ago, The Fun Factory said:

He won't go. But if he did we would get close to £100 million to soften the blow. If United can pay 80 million for Maguire 100 mil should be the asking price. 

Hope it dosen't happen anytime soon but would be interesting to see what we do with the 100m.

We learnt to our cost before when we sold Benteke that spreading it for 5-6 players in many positions dosen't quite work, Spurs also found this with how they spend the Bale money in 2013.

Probably better to go out and get in two proven 40m + players although that comes with risks of course but given we'd be losing so much personality and world class ability in final third it's something we'll have to do I think.

 

[useless]

In other words you who read this, we'll reach loftier heights by setting loftier expectations.

[tom_avfc]

3 minutes ago, useless said:

Damn this blasted comfort zone where the idea of us being succesful is just a joke, where we stagnate and our dreams wither away, as other teams pass us by and take all the glory that could have been ours. If you want to be succesful you don't acheieve it by declaring that you're happy to finish midtable for a few seasons and then at some future date we will magically start improving, you have to go for it straight away, you might not acheive your aim to begin with, but that's the mentality you need to succeed eventually.

This would be all well and good if the title of the thread was 2021/22 dreams/aims rather than expectations. Without a doubt we'll be aiming to finish as high up the table as we can. To set ridiculous expectations given the starting position we have when compared to other clubs doesn't do anyone any favours as seen by the reaction to a poor run of results this season after a brilliant start.

The aim is to finish as high up the table as possible but my expectations are that we'll sit somewhere between 7th and 12th in the league. If we can bolster the squad and improve on what we've done this year then I'll be happy. Expecting suddenly to be challenging the top teams is pretty unrealistic and will only lead to disappointment and knee jerk reactions when we inevitably suffer the odd poor result.

[VillaChris]

2 hours ago, Tomaszk said:

I'm sure everyone would like to better this season's position. That's the hope every year for fans and the club.

I don't think having it as a minimum expectation is a play the club will have internally.

12th for example next season wouldn't be a great season, but it's a long way from a bad one.

Doesn't add up to say 10th is "brilliant" this season but 11th is unacceptable next season IMO.

Problem for us is what would be acceptable in Jack's mind? And probably Emi aswell who's incredibly ambitious to get back one day to the level he was part of at Arsenal for much of the last decade e.g. regular european qualification as that would help him secure Argentina number one position.

At this point I reckon we're around 2007 in terms of progress in squad building and general expectation. Back then we finished 11th but anyone could see we were building a really promising team with Petrov getting back and Young and Carew coming in that January so it was looking as promising as it is now so squad was happy.

2008 we finished 6th (although didn't actually qualify for europe directly) and you had Barry coming towards end of that season giving interviews saying it was time to move on although of course he stayed for one more season. Even if he stayed for a bit longer that put doubt in Young's mind and he didn't sign a new deal when we probably offered one around 2009 and so his run down.

It's always a fine balance. Currently likes of Konsa and McGinn happy to sign new deals but perhaps in two years time they might not be so keen if we haven't kicked on a bit further up the league. Jack Grealish simply has to be playing in some form of european competition sooner or later, ideally CL at some point in next 5 years so simply up to the club to keep doing all they can to give us the best chance in the long run.

After last summer they've certainly earnt my trust when I was sceptical on some of the signings so certainly looking forward to see what we do transfer wise over next 12 months.

With regards to 11th being "unacceptable" next season Tom I think it's more a case of what we do with the transfers e.g. we sign 3-4 type of players that just keep us ticking along in mid table or we really try hard to get in two that will really push us on towards 7th-8th or perhaps even higher. Martinez type signing that massively improves us in one area.

Wolves is good example. 7th for two years running but lose two key players and then their best striker by a mile halfway through the season and they drop down to 12th or 13th this season despite signing 5-6 players last summer, mostly young ones so that didn't given them enough to stay up in the top half. That's the big challenge for us now as it isn't an easy one.

Edited May 6, 2021 by VillaChris

[The Fun Factory]

8 minutes ago, useless said:

Damn this blasted comfort zone where the idea of us being succesful is just a joke, where we stagnate and our dreams wither away, as other teams pass us by and take all the glory that could have been ours. If you want to be succesful you don't acheieve it by declaring that you're happy to finish midtable for a few seasons and then at some future date we will magically start improving, you have to go for it straight away, you might not acheive your aim to begin with, but that's the mentality you need to succeed eventually.

Or alternatively you have owners who spent tens of millions each season strengthening the squad and also the whole infrastructure of the club? No?

We wasted a decade faffing about and declining as  a club. Due to FFP we can't magically become a top 6 club again straight away. If we finish 10th this year that is the equivalent of moving 15 places up the football pyramid in 3 seasons. Next season aim to get top 8. Season after that top 6. Maybe then have  a crack at top 4.

[VillaChris]

8 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Or alternatively you have owners who spent tens of millions each season strengthening the squad and also the whole infrastructure of the club? No?

We wasted a decade faffing about and declining as  a club. Due to FFP we can't magically become a top 6 club again straight away. If we finish 10th this year that is the equivalent of moving 15 places up the football pyramid in 3 seasons. Next season aim to get top 8. Season after that top 6. Maybe then have  a crack at top 4.

Lerner was doing that between 2006-10. Mass spending on squad every summer for a good three years and Holte pub, re-decoration of the Holte end etc that got plaudits as he didn't have to do it and generally the vibe on here at the time was the money would never run out and we'd always be in the top 6 mix for as long as he was owner.

We see now we really had to strike between 2008-10. No just explaining away 2008-09 collapse as we'll just qualify for top 4 next season or we'll just win a cup in 10/11 after coming up just short in 2010. Everything just collapsed like a pack of cards as soon as O'Neill walked out which was disappointing as the position was still salvagable at that point.

That's still what I fear a bit if Jack decides to leave in next two years, he simply is that important to us which is why this summer's activity could really shape our next 5 years as would be huge if we could find another player with his ability to play in the front 4 so that gives more flexibility.

Sometimes you just have to strike while things are hot in football before unforeseen events happen as no one on here was predicting O'Neil would walk out 5 days before the start of a season and it pretty much set us back 10 years.

Edited May 6, 2021 by VillaChris

[DCJonah]

21 minutes ago, useless said:

Damn this blasted comfort zone where the idea of us being succesful is just a joke, where we stagnate and our dreams wither away, as other teams pass us by and take all the glory that could have been ours. If you want to be succesful you don't acheieve it by declaring that you're happy to finish midtable for a few seasons and then at some future date we will magically start improving, you have to go for it straight away, you might not acheive your aim to begin with, but that's the mentality you need to succeed eventually.

Well no its not magic. Its called building something. 

Look how many years of investment and the level of investment it took spurs and City to break into that top 4. And spurs can't even maintain that now. 

 

[The Fun Factory]

11 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Lerner was doing that between 2006-10. Mass spending on squad every summer for a good three years and Holte pub, re-decoration of the Holte end etc that got plaudits as he didn't have to do it and generally the vibe on here at the time was the money would never run out and we'd always be in the top 6 mix for as long as he was owner.

We see now we really had to strike between 2008-10. No just explaining away 2008-09 collapse as we'll just qualify for top 4 next season or we'll just win a cup in 10/11 after coming up just short in 2010. Everything just collapsed like a pack of cards as soon as O'Neill walked out which was disappointing as the position was still salvagable at that point.

That's still what I fear a bit if Jack decides to leave in next two years, he simply is that important to us which is why this summer's activity could really shape our next 5 years as would be huge if we could find another player with his ability to play in the front 4 so that gives more flexibility.

Sometimes you just have to strike while things are hot in football before unforeseen events happen as no one on here was predicting O'Neil would walk out 5 days before the start of a season and it pretty much set us back 10 years.

Yeah but Lerner wasn't a businessman, he was a bored philanthropist who wanted to get romantically nourished.

These guys are proper business people with experience in sports management.

I have more confidence this time. However in the 15 years since Lerner the window to get to the top has massively narrowed.

Its never easy with the Villa is it.

[useless]

Man City were never happy just to finish midtable, if you make midtable you're aim then you will never succeed, you're more likely to end up in a relegation battle with that attitude. Not sure why Tottenham are being talked about, they've haven't won anything.

[BG_Villa_Fan]

Realistically even sustaining this season's achievements - getting around 50 points and maintaining 10th/9th - would represent a good season. Being an established top half team isn't that easy. Obviously we'd all love a few more points and a couple of positions higher up but challenging for top 6 seems quite optimistic to me even with another busy summer. We're years behind in terms of squad building, just like Wolves, who have suffered this season. This is why simply avoiding a dip, like theirs, would be a positive for me. 

[DCJonah]

Just now, useless said:

Man City were never happy just to finish midtable, if you make midtable you're aim then you will never succeed, you're more likely to end up in a relegation battle with that attitude. Not sure why Tottenham are being talked about, they've haven't won anything.

But like someone else said, there's a difference between aims,  dreams and expectations. I want us to get into the top 4 and win the league but football doesn't work like that.

Spurs were mentioned because of the level of investment and the years it took spending like that to break the top 4, to bring some realism to the idea that all we have to do is want it to happen.

[The Fun Factory]

Just now, useless said:

Man City were never happy just to finish midtable, if you make midtable you're aim then you will never succeed, you're more likely to end up in a relegation battle with that attitude. Not sure why Tottenham are being talked about, they've haven't won anything.

Because Tottenham are one of the worlds wealthiest clubs with a new 60,000 stadium?

City have basically bottomless pits of money funded from a wealthy country who wants to make  a PR statement. We aren't like that but we need to target to be like Everton or Spurs again in terms of revenue and size of club. That could possibly be achievable within the next 4-5 years.

[useless]

You don't build a succesful team by expecting mediocrity, you move forward by setting your expectations high whilst making allowaces for the possibility that you might not quite reach those lofty heights to begin but you will do better than you would if you were to aim low, and you keeping going like that until eventually you reach the ultimate goal.

[BG_Villa_Fan]

1 minute ago, useless said:

You don't build a succesful team by expecting mediocrity, you move forward by setting your expectations high whilst making allowaces for the possibility that you might not quite reach those lofty heights to begin but you will do better than you would if you were to aim low, and you keeping going like that until eventually you reach the ultimate goal.

Off topic, but don't ever invest in stocks  

[Sulberto21]

1 hour ago, lexicon said:

In a 38-game season, the last time we achieved that target was 1989. A 20-win season is basically top 4. That's just silly, sorry. 

I'm going on what I saw in the games before the covid outbreak. We missed lots of easy chances to win at least 4 more games. That would have put us on 18 already for the season. It's an ambitious target that I believe this squad and coach are capable of delivering.

P.S I was similarly mocked when I said we should aim for 15 wins this season. It was based on how the games went last season and in the knowledge that the players and coaches will rectify the mistakes of last season. I see no reason why they won't make the necessary adjustments to get to 20 wins. 

Even if we win 17 games next season it's brilliant again. But I genuinely believe this system is capable next season of delivering 20 wins. Our analysis team has improved so much and I believe our squad is young enough to improve again next season.

Edited May 6, 2021 by Sulberto21