Kiwivillan Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 10 hours ago, thunderball said: 8. Brighton, 0%, 50.7pts, 1.5%, 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 12 hours ago, Kiwivillan said: Their xG tho... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 On 22/07/2021 at 04:58, thunderball said: Interesting article in the Athletic by Matt Slater this week about data and analytics in modern football. They refer to 'Data Analytics' a private company that goes beyond individual analysis by running models based on data plus current club statistic around playing style, tactics etc to predict the table. They model each club over 1m fixtures for an average and previously correctly predicted that Leicester would win the title in 2016 and Chelsea by 7 points in 2017, that Arsenal would finish outside the top 4 for the first time last season, Liverpool finishing 3rd after VVD's injury. They even suggest how many points individual players will contribute to a team's season. Apparently they are commissioned by many top clubs for this reason when looking at the impact of recruitment. Anyway, they have the following predictions for next season here (note this was run LAST WEEK and based on current [predominantly end of last season's] player personnel prior to most current new signings, so this will change. Not sure if Buendia was included for us, but maybe): Here's the table, plus chance of winning the title, avg points, top-4 chance & relegation chance 1. Man City, 70.2% chance of winning, 84.5 avg pts, 99.2% top 4, 0% relegation2. Liverpool, 19.6%, 77.2pts, 92.4%, 0%3. Chelsea, 7.2%, 72.6pts, 78.7%, 0%4. United, 1.2%, 65.8pts, 42.6%, 0%5. Spurs, 0.9%, 64.5pts, 35.3%, 0%6. Arsenal, 0.7%, 63.5pts, 31.4%, 0%7. Leicester, 0.2%, 59.7pts, 14.9%, 0.1%8. Brighton, 0%, 50.7pts, 1.5%, 2%9. Wolves, 0%, 50.6pts, 1.5%, 2.2%10. Leeds, 0%, 49.1pts, 0.9%, 3.3%11. West Ham, 0%, 48.7pts, 0.8%, 3.6%12. Villa, 0%, 46.2pts, 0.3%, 7.1%13. Everton, 0%, 45.1pts, 0.2%, 9.3%14. Palace, 0%, 44pts, 0.1%, 11.8%15. Brentford, 0%, 43.6pts, 0.1%, 13%16. Watford, 0%, 37.7pts, 0%, 38.9%17. Southampton, 0%, 37.2pts, 0%, 40.7%18. Newcastle, 0%, 35.6pts, 0%, 50.9%19. Burnley, 0%, 35.3pts, 0%, 52.1%20. Norwich, 0%, 33.3pts, 0%, 65.2% We need new signings! (Wolves is interesting??). We are only 3 points better off than Brentford! Matt Slater suggests that Villa is a surprise, especially as we have fewer points than last season. For me though what it might suggest is that even if Grealish goes, we might add new player(s) whose attributes improve the formula and it benefits the team. Thats my [desperate] silver lining anyway... Spurs and Arsenal ahead of us and Everton in 13th.... Cant see it and on top of that we are going to be worse next season ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 I’m confident we’ll finish higher than 12th, maybe not top six, but we’ll improve again on last season. We’ve got Buendia feeding Watkins, Grealish back in the side, the defence has been together for another year, the players we signed when we first came up have another years experience (same with Traore and Sanson) and the youth we’ve got coming through are exciting and could well play a key part. Plus we haven’t finished signing players yet. Add in someone like Bailey, plus CB cover and maybe a DM, and I can’t see how we’d not improve again. Other teams will also improve, but I say **** them, let’s take the league by storm and smash in some 7-2 style performances again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 As it stands I think we will be doing very well to match last season's points total regardess of whether Grealish is with us or not. Midtable would represent another good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 They only predicted us to finish 11th but in their season preview the guardian gave a very good and knowledgeable write up about us that's worth a read 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 I'm not expecting us to finish in the top 6 but I do expect us to be in the race for top 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, villa4europe said: They only predicted us to finish 11th but in their season preview the guardian gave a very good and knowledgeable write up about us that's worth a read Second that. Looks like very well informed article by Guardian, predicting bright future for us, with or without grealish. Edited August 3, 2021 by Czarnikjak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 With Grealish we finish 6/7th but to hand some epic beatings to some teams. Without him we'll do well to finish 10th regardless of who we bring in. They'll need a season to gel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Around 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, villa4europe said: They only predicted us to finish 11th but in their season preview the guardian gave a very good and knowledgeable write up about us that's worth a read Thanks for the heads up. Good read. I also thought their pick of Martinez over Grealish as our key player was insightful. lhttps://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/aug/02/premier-league-2021-22-preview-no-2-aston-villa Edited August 4, 2021 by ciggiesnbeer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QldVilla Posted August 4, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted August 4, 2021 If we keep Grealish, believe we’ll get 65-70 points, if he leaves, think it will be 50-55 points. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Spurs signing a £50 million defender and Arsenal in for Maddison. Both shit show clubs but both still well ahead of us for now. I think 9th would be a very good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lerner's Driver Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, DCJonah said: Spurs signing a £50 million defender and Arsenal in for Maddison. Both shit show clubs but both still well ahead of us for now. I think 9th would be a very good season. Without Grealish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woody1000 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, DCJonah said: Spurs signing a £50 million defender and Arsenal in for Maddison. Both shit show clubs but both still well ahead of us for now. I think 9th would be a very good season. This, especially if Jack goes. Assuming he does I’d be delighted if we could hit the 55 point mark, but then worry that wouldn’t be enough for Europe and interest starts in Watkins, Martinez, Konsa etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Lerner's Driver said: Without Grealish? 9th without Jack would be a superb year. With him, I think it would still be success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWARLEY2 Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Top half will do . And by writing that i guess that shows how difficult it will be to get into the top 4 . We have the ambition and the dream but the reality is so do another 6 clubs . When you write it down it is sobering to think and maybe gives some insight into Jacks thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 2 hours ago, DCJonah said: Spurs signing a £50 million defender and Arsenal in for Maddison. Both shit show clubs but both still well ahead of us for now. I think 9th would be a very good season. thats the reality of the league, have to judge where we finish in the context of everyone else too, we trying to chase down teams who are also spending £100m+ and from a stronger starting position "we have to catch arsenal / spurs because they're in a mess" they still have £500m squads, arsenal in particular you can laugh at the white money but he makes them better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaglint Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 It is a relentlessly competitive league, every minute of every match and every day of the transfer window. I have no idea what we should expect. Somewhere between 5-20th would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post villalad21 Posted August 4, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted August 4, 2021 Thought this to be a proper thread. Season coming up and Villa squad looking exciting. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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