Breakaway League

[Tommo_b]

Do we think there will be any punishment other than a large fine for these clubs?

[Phil Silvers]

1 hour ago, Tommo_b said:

Do we think there will be any punishment other than a large fine for these clubs?

It's probably all finalised and nothing will happen, I suspect a Rolex or 2, maybe an Aston, possibly a holiday villa, a weekend with Beyonce etc etc many brown envelopes moving round no doubt.

[OutByEaster?]

1 hour ago, Tommo_b said:

Do we think there will be any punishment other than a large fine for these clubs?

I think punishments will happen, but possibly in a few different ways, some of which are more visible than others, and some in very different timescales.

I think the first punishment is the natural one and could actually end up being the most severe for some of the clubs involved. Punishment number one is that you don't get to kill off the sugar-daddy clubs from outside the cartel (like us) and you don't get your extra £300m a year. Having to carry on as they are is a massive punishment for some of these clubs, it'll probably lead to a change of ownership at AC Milan, it'll cause a little bit of a panic at a few clubs and it'll absolutely hammer Barcelona - they're in a really big hole.

I think there are then the punishment's from the leagues - the small things like the removal of the CEO's involved from the steering and planning groups which I think will lead to increased pressure on those CEO's and pressure on the owners to sacrifice them in order to distance themselves from the project. At Spurs for example, Levy is already under pressure for some of his recent decisions, he's struggling to find the right manager for them and he's now less influential as a part of the league group and completely untrusted by other Chairmen - I could see Spurs replacing him and using that to distance Joe Lewis and ENIC from the ESL project. I think the political pressures on the CEO's and the loss of trust will end up being a punishment of sorts on its own.

I think then there will be a future punishment in the rewriting of the rules and importantly in the way this has changed some of the thinking in football. This is particularly pronounced in the Premier league where there's a real will from the 14 ''other' CEO's to rip up the rule book, prevent this ever being possible again and perhaps removing some of the protections that the 'big' six currently enjoy. An outnumbered group of six chairman will find that influencing rules in their favour will be next to impossible over the next few years and that the luxuries they've enjoyed within that framework won't be easy to maintain. This is reflected in other places like Italy where they've already changed their rules to insist on expulsion from Serie A for any team that joins a super league. I think one of the key areas it'll show in England is in the distribution of TV rights, the biggest clubs have been moving for a larger slice of the pie and for individual arrangements on streaming and their in house platforms for a little while - there's absolutely no way I can see that a plan where those revenues aren't shared amongst all of the clubs in the league now going through - Utd's plans for making huge sums for exclusive distribution of their home games is as good as dead in the water, the 14 will insist those revenues are shared in line with other TV revenues.

And then we're onto formal punishments, and here things are a bit more mysterious, points deductions, bans from competition, transfer embargoes, all of that sort of stuff is a complete mystery. UEFA were furious, make no mistake, this was an existential threat to them, a group of teams cutting them out of the money. And whilst we know that UEFA are more than capable of fudging just about any issue, whether it be the rules of the game, the way competitions are structured or human rights, they don't take at all kindly to finding a hand in their pocket. I think they'll do something, but I'm not quite sure what it is - personally I'm hoping that it's something aimed at removing individuals from the game so that the next time a CEO is looking at trying something like this, they know that if they fail they're done in football, forever. 

UEFA are unpredictable and erm... open to influence, FIFA even more so, and what they come up with could be just about anything, and could be over just about any timeframe; it's a complicated bureaucracy and they could come up with punishments tomorrow or in 2024, they're a hard group to make a guess on.

The Premier league in theory are simpler, the fourteen CEO's that will decide are fairly straightforward, but whether they'll go for punishments or just look to make rule changes that can unbalance the six and bring about a league that's harder for the traditional high revenue clubs to dominate over those with new money is an unknown. I have a feeling they'll do the latter, but I think they'll feel the need to make some sort of statement punishment as a way to demonstrate the strength of their feeling. 

So, in terms of punishments, I think some are happening now, some will develop naturally over the next couple of years and the traditional ones; fines, points, suspensions etc are really difficult to predict. 

[Genie]

2 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

the traditional ones; fines, points, suspensions etc are really difficult to predict. 

I agree, anything like this will be appealed by the clubs which will just create an expensive, public fight that nobody wants.

They’ll be excluded from some of the working groups (already happening), maybe lose some voting rights. Nothing that will really bite, or be that noticeable from the outside.

[Louis]

I really didn't understand this. end off.

[ender4]

23 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think punishments will happen, but possibly in a few different ways, some of which are more visible than others, and some in very different timescales.

I think the first punishment is the natural one and could actually end up being the most severe for some of the clubs involved. Punishment number one is that you don't get to kill off the sugar-daddy clubs from outside the cartel (like us) and you don't get your extra £300m a year. Having to carry on as they are is a massive punishment for some of these clubs, it'll probably lead to a change of ownership at AC Milan, it'll cause a little bit of a panic at a few clubs and it'll absolutely hammer Barcelona - they're in a really big hole.

I think there are then the punishment's from the leagues - the small things like the removal of the CEO's involved from the steering and planning groups which I think will lead to increased pressure on those CEO's and pressure on the owners to sacrifice them in order to distance themselves from the project. At Spurs for example, Levy is already under pressure for some of his recent decisions, he's struggling to find the right manager for them and he's now less influential as a part of the league group and completely untrusted by other Chairmen - I could see Spurs replacing him and using that to distance Joe Lewis and ENIC from the ESL project. I think the political pressures on the CEO's and the loss of trust will end up being a punishment of sorts on its own.

I think then there will be a future punishment in the rewriting of the rules and importantly in the way this has changed some of the thinking in football. This is particularly pronounced in the Premier league where there's a real will from the 14 ''other' CEO's to rip up the rule book, prevent this ever being possible again and perhaps removing some of the protections that the 'big' six currently enjoy. An outnumbered group of six chairman will find that influencing rules in their favour will be next to impossible over the next few years and that the luxuries they've enjoyed within that framework won't be easy to maintain. This is reflected in other places like Italy where they've already changed their rules to insist on expulsion from Serie A for any team that joins a super league. I think one of the key areas it'll show in England is in the distribution of TV rights, the biggest clubs have been moving for a larger slice of the pie and for individual arrangements on streaming and their in house platforms for a little while - there's absolutely no way I can see that a plan where those revenues aren't shared amongst all of the clubs in the league now going through - Utd's plans for making huge sums for exclusive distribution of their home games is as good as dead in the water, the 14 will insist those revenues are shared in line with other TV revenues.

And then we're onto formal punishments, and here things are a bit more mysterious, points deductions, bans from competition, transfer embargoes, all of that sort of stuff is a complete mystery. UEFA were furious, make no mistake, this was an existential threat to them, a group of teams cutting them out of the money. And whilst we know that UEFA are more than capable of fudging just about any issue, whether it be the rules of the game, the way competitions are structured or human rights, they don't take at all kindly to finding a hand in their pocket. I think they'll do something, but I'm not quite sure what it is - personally I'm hoping that it's something aimed at removing individuals from the game so that the next time a CEO is looking at trying something like this, they know that if they fail they're done in football, forever. 

UEFA are unpredictable and erm... open to influence, FIFA even more so, and what they come up with could be just about anything, and could be over just about any timeframe; it's a complicated bureaucracy and they could come up with punishments tomorrow or in 2024, they're a hard group to make a guess on.

The Premier league in theory are simpler, the fourteen CEO's that will decide are fairly straightforward, but whether they'll go for punishments or just look to make rule changes that can unbalance the six and bring about a league that's harder for the traditional high revenue clubs to dominate over those with new money is an unknown. I have a feeling they'll do the latter, but I think they'll feel the need to make some sort of statement punishment as a way to demonstrate the strength of their feeling. 

So, in terms of punishments, I think some are happening now, some will develop naturally over the next couple of years and the traditional ones; fines, points, suspensions etc are really difficult to predict. 

Yes I mostly agree, except the PL don’t have 14 clubs on the same page.  They are probably split in smaller groups with their own viewpoints and agendas. 

A group of those trying to break the cartel 6,  a group of mid-table clubs happy to exist in the PL forever just taking the money, a group of 3 who are just about to be relegated and will be replaced with a new group of 3 who are new to the club.  

Finally,  there is probably 1 maverick club who agrees with the ESL6 in secret or just doesn’t give a crap about any of it.

So I think any agreement to change anything will be very difficult to do.

[Zatman]

United fans apparently have stormed the pitch at Old Trafford

[sne]

[villa89]

6 minutes ago, Zatman said:

United fans apparently have stormed the pitch at Old Trafford

About as pointless as the green and yellow scarves they used to wear. 

[OutByEaster?]

I think it's good that the pressure is kept on. I'm hopeful that the last day of the season will be one with banners and chants all over the country. 

 

[villa89]

8 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think it's good that the pressure is kept on. 

Why? I dont think the owners will sell up or care about any fan protests. They haven't cared before why would they start now. 

[sne]

1 minute ago, villa89 said:

Why? I dont think the owners will sell up or care about any fan protests. They haven't cared before why would they start now. 

Worked for us thou. And it got us rid of Bruce as well.

[Zatman]

6 minutes ago, sne said:

Worked for us thou. And it got us rid of Bruce as well.

Lerner wanted to sell before them protests, Glazers have never shown any willingness to sell

[sne]

Just now, Zatman said:

Lerner wanted to sell before them protests, Glazers have never shown any willingness to sell

I imagine this is intended to increase their willingness to sell.

[Zatman]

1 minute ago, sne said:

I imagine this is intended to increase their willingness to sell.

I doubt they care what the fans think, I think i read recently they didnt even go to a game since 2017. Woodward takes the abuse as the frontman but he is leaving now so doubt he cares that much

[villa4europe]

1 minute ago, Zatman said:

I doubt they care what the fans think, I think i read recently they didnt even go to a game since 2017. Woodward takes the abuse as the frontman but he is leaving now so doubt he cares that much

Bought for £800m in 2005, creamed money out of them for years and they're valued at £3.15bn in 2019...why would they sell? It's an investment and a cash cow, they'll only sell when the peak return has been met 

The best thing about it is that utds dominance and size of their club is the exact reason why they were bought and now won't be sold, the reason that made them so successful for 20 years is why they are doing what they are doing now, so **** them words removed, they're like spoiled children 

[icouldtelltheworld]

54 minutes ago, sne said:

Fair play to them

[OutByEaster?]

Kick off delayed. No time yet.

 

[Villaphan04]

58 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Why? I dont think the owners will sell up or care about any fan protests. They haven't cared before why would they start now. 

 

35 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

Bought for £800m in 2005, creamed money out of them for years and they're valued at £3.15bn in 2019...why would they sell? It's an investment and a cash cow, they'll only sell when the peak return has been met 

The best thing about it is that utds dominance and size of their club is the exact reason why they were bought and now won't be sold, the reason that made them so successful for 20 years is why they are doing what they are doing now, so **** them words removed, they're like spoiled children 

exactly this. They are getting so much return on their investment that they have no real need to sell unless they get a huge offer. (same goes for Arsenal), and exactly who would spend up to 3/4 billion on United/Arsenal/Liverpool when they can buy a Championship/League1/League 2 team for 1% of the price with the opportunity to make the PL and the money from that. 

 

I know the money and sponsorship and all of that for one of the "big 6" will dwarf those who dream of making it to the PL, but how long would it take for the prospective buyers to even make a profit? I just don't see how any business person would drop that sort of money on a football club

[OutByEaster?]

Keane the pundit in favour of fans protesting because of the super league and then a breath later Utd should sign Kane and Grealish in the summer - where's the money coming from for that?

The weird thing about the protests we've seen off the back of the super league so far is that they've all been carried out by the people who would have been the beneficiaries of the super league - Man Utd, Arsenal etc and not by those who would have been the victims of it, us, Everton, Leeds. 

And there's absolutely no acceptance within those who are linked with the biggest clubs that part of the solution is to end a situation where big teams can financially dominate for a decade - the solution to this, the way forward is a league where United occasionally finish tenth, where Liverpool occasionally finish tenth, where Everton and Leeds have a chance of getting into the champions league.

Keane - money is ruining the game and Utd should spend's £300m on two players in the summer.